** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 22.4N 135.2E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.8N 132.9E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 23.9N 129.1E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 25.2N 125.4E 935HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 290000 *** WARNING 290000. WARNING VALID 300000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.4N 135.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 23.0N 133.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 24.2N 128.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 25.5N 122.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 22.4N 135.2E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 23.0N 133.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 010000UTC 24.2N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 020000UTC 25.5N 122.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 290000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 290000UTC 22.4N 135.2E MOVEMENT W 4KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 300000UTC 23.0N 132.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT 48HR POSITION 010000UTC 24.1N 128.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT 72HR POSITION 020000UTC 25.5N 123.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN33 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 135.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 135.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.4N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.6N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 23.0N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.6N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 25.1N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 26.4N 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 28.1N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 134.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPA24 PHFO 290222 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0300Z THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 147.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 147.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 146.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 148.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 152.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.6N 155.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.3N 159.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.1N 164.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 147.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 290224 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 PM HST WED SEP 28 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 147.1 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM KENNETH IS NOT A POWERFUL CYCLONE BUT EVERYONE ON THE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM. KENNETH IS CARRYING VERY MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A LOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...18.7 N 147.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 290225 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 58 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 PM HST WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH LOST ALL HIS DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING BUT NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER 120NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE DATA T-NUMBERS USING THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. WITH NO RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES AVAILABLE...WE WILL FOLLOW THE DVORAK MODEL AND CONTINUE WEAKENING KENNETH AT 1/2 T-NUMBER PER 6 HOURS USING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE MAJOR COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FAIRLY STRONG 1029MB HIGH NEAR 36N 139W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A LOW ALOFT...NOW NEAR 23N 152W...IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER KAUAI BY 1200 UTC ON 1 OCTOBER. THIS LOW EXTENDS DOWN TO AT LEAST 700MB. KENNETH IS MOVING UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS BECOME A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS DOWN FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP STEERING KENNETH TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT WHICH CARRIES THE CENTER OF KENNETH JUST OFF THE NORTH SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR KENNETH...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...DROPPING BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF CENTER. WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH AND THE LOW ALOFT ARE LIKELY TO INTERACT TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A WEAKENING KENNETH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL MAY FALL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF KENNETH WERE TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THE RAINFALL MIGHT BE CONCENTRATED MORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS. IN EITHER CASE...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. FORECASTER KODAMA/DONALDSON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 18.7N 147.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 19.2N 148.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 152.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.6N 155.1W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.3N 159.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0000Z 24.1N 164.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 290230 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0300Z THU SEP 29 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 290300 RRD *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 26.4N 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 28.1N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 134.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 135.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 135.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.4N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.6N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 23.0N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.6N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 25.1N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 26.4N 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 28.1N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 134.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 290300 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 22.6N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 23.0N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 290300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 22.4N 135.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 135.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.4N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPZ45 KNHC 290247 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS ALMOST TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PRODUCE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. ADDITIONALLY...A SHIP 125 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 30 KT. SINCE THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/5. THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG 26N. THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS... AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN IN 36-48 HR AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE MODELS CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...PASSING NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...THE ECMWF... AND THE GFDN KEEP ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH TO MOVE THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND. SINCE EVEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ GFDL/NOGAPS/CANADIAN SOLUTION...CALLING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 24-36 HR AND A NORTHWARD MOTION BY 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE NORTHWARD-POINTING GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 72 HR OR SO. THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HR...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR MUCH LESS INTENSIFICATION...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF ABOUT 50 KT IN 60-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BLEND THE GFDL AND SHIPS...CALLING FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...COOL SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AFTER 72 HR THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOTHERMS. THUS...ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM/COOL THE WATER IS UNDER THE CYCLONE. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 17.1N 107.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 290400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/290330ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 058 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 146.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 146.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 19.2N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.7N 150.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.0N 152.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.6N 155.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.3N 159.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.1N 164.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 290400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/290335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 106.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 106.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.5N 108.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.3N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.2N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.1N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 22.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 24.0N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 290300 *** WARNING 290300. WARNING VALID 300300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.3N 134.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 23.0N 132.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 22.3N 134.9E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 23.0N 132.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 010000UTC 24.2N 128.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 020000UTC 25.5N 122.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 290530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 106.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2005 17.2N 106.6W WEAK 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.7N 108.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.6N 109.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 19.0N 110.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 19.7N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 20.2N 111.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 20.6N 111.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 21.2N 111.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 22.0N 112.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 23.1N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 23.7N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2005 24.0N 113.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 146.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2005 18.6N 146.8W WEAK 12UTC 29.09.2005 19.0N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.7N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 19.6N 152.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 20.5N 154.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 22.5N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 23.2N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 23.8N 164.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 24.7N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 26.0N 168.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 25.5N 171.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 25.6N 173.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2005 26.6N 175.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290530