** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP23 RJTD 281200 *** WARNING 281200. WARNING VALID 291200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.5N 136.2E NORTH OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 22.9N 134.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 23.7N 131.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 25.1N 126.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 281200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 281200UTC 22.5N 136.2E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 291200UTC 22.9N 134.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 301200UTC 23.7N 131.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 011200UTC 25.1N 126.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 281200 UTC 00HR 22.4N 136.1E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.5N 133.8E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 22.8N 130.7E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 23.2N 126.8E 935HPA 50M/S= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 281404 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 1500Z WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.7N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 136.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 136.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.5N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.8N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 23.3N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 23.9N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 25.3N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.8N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 28.4N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 135.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPZ45 KNHC 281427 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOMEWHAT. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED AND NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AT 1200Z... SHIP MCDW9 LOCATED 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND SHIP MKYJ8 LOCATED 120 NMI WEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1006.8 MB. THESE OBSERVATIONS... ALONG WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1005 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE... AND POSSIBLY EVEN DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE FASTEST AND STRONGEST WITH ERODING THE RIDGE...AND THOSE MODELS RECURVE THE CYCLONE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 96-120 HOURS. IN CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND THE NOGAPS MODELS ARE SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH EROSION OF THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DATA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE RATHER WEAK LOOKING APPEARANCE OF THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO LEANS CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E VERY WELL... SO THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20 KT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE 48-84 HOUR TIME FRAME... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE OVER 28-29C SSTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER... WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT SOME SLOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IF THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... IT WOULD REMAIN OVER 27-29C SSTS ... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE TOO LOW IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48H AND 72H. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 17.0N 105.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 18.7N 109.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 19.7N 111.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 114.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 281430 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 1500Z WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 145.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 25SE 25SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 145.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 145.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N 146.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 25SE 25SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.2N 151.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 20SE 20SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.3N 153.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.7N 158.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N 163.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 145.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 281445 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 AM HST WED SEP 28 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.5 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII...AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF HAWAII FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...18.1 N...145.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 281518 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 AM HST WED SEP 28 2005 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES RANGE FROM 2.0 FROM SAB...TO 2.5 FROM JTWC AND AFWA...AND 3.0 FROM CPHC. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION...WE WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT VISIBLE IMAGERY. IT IS UNDERSTOOD THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/9. KENNETH HAS BEEN HEADED TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 31N. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS... WHICH IS LIKELY TO TURN KENNETH ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE SHIFTING THE TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY...AND SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK EXCEPT TO SPEED THE CYCLONE UP A BIT BEYOND 36 HOURS. KENNETH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT VERY SOON...AND IN FACT THE DEEP CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED MORE TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC THAN EARLIER TONIGHT. THE GOES-10 SATELLITE DERIVED HIGH LEVEL WIND ANALYSES SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF WESTERLY FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF 20N. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS... WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TERRAIN OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIVE EFFECT ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF KENNETH IF IT PASSES NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...LIKE DARBY IN 2004 AND PAUL IN 2000...HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PAST. FORECASTER R BALLARD/HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 18.1N 145.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 146.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 20.2N 151.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.3N 153.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.7N 158.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 163.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 281600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/281530ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 056 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 145.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 145.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.9N 146.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 19.9N 149.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.2N 151.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 20.3N 153.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.7N 158.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 23.0N 163.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 281600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/281535ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 105.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 105.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.3N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.9N 108.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.7N 109.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.7N 111.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 21.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 22.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 281500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 136.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 136.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.5N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 281500 RRD *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.8N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 28.4N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 135.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 281500 RRC *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 23.9N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 25.3N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 281500 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.8N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 23.3N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 136.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 136.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.5N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 22.8N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 23.3N 132.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 23.9N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 25.3N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 26.8N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 28.4N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 135.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 281500 *** WARNING 281500. WARNING VALID 291500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.5N 135.8E NORTH OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 23.0N 134.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 281500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 281500UTC 22.5N 135.8E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 291500UTC 23.0N 134.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 301200UTC 23.7N 131.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 011200UTC 25.1N 126.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 281721 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 105.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2005 16.9N 105.5W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2005 17.2N 106.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 18.2N 108.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.0N 109.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 19.7N 111.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 20.3N 111.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 20.6N 112.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 20.7N 112.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 21.2N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 21.3N 114.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 21.9N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 22.0N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 21.9N 116.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 144.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2005 17.8N 144.3W MODERATE 00UTC 29.09.2005 18.5N 146.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 19.2N 149.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.4N 151.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 19.2N 153.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 20.1N 155.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 20.0N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 20.9N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 21.7N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 23.6N 166.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 24.6N 168.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 25.5N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2005 26.2N 173.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281721