** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 22.4N 136.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 134.4E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 23.5N 132.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 24.6N 128.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 280600 *** WARNING 280600. WARNING VALID 290600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.5N 136.7E NORTH OF PARECE VERA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 22.8N 134.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 23.3N 132.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 24.4N 128.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 280600UTC 22.5N 136.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM NORTHWEST 130NM SOUTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 290600UTC 22.8N 134.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 300600UTC 23.3N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 010600UTC 24.4N 128.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ32 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN33 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 22.5N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 22.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.2N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 23.6N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 24.1N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 25.5N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.9N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 28.3N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 136.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPA24 PHFO 280830 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0900Z WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 144.2W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 144.2W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 143.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.2N 145.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 147.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.4N 149.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 20SE 20SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.7N 151.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.8N 154.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.7N 158.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 144.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER PROTON/HOUSTON $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 280900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 22.5N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 22.8N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 280900 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 23.2N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 23.6N 133.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 280900 RRD *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 26.9N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 28.3N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 136.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 280836 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152005 0900Z WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.4W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 280845 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 PM HST TUE SEP 27 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.2 WEST OR ABOUT 735 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF HAWAII FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...17.1 N...144.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER PROTON/HOUSTON $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 280903 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z. THERE IS PLENTY OF ROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE TWO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE EXACTLY CO-LOCATED. NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS ON OR NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION...USUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR FORMATIVE SYSTEMS...IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS WELL DEFINED. THIS RIDGE DOES NOT EXTEND WESTWARD VERY FAR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN OVERALL MOTION SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF A CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11-TYPE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...WITH THE GFS TAKING A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITH A MUCH SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. GIVEN THE PRESENT SHEARED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...I THINK THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO RAPID TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z GFDL RUN...THE LAST RUN NOT TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.0N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 281000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/280930ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 055 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 143.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 143.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 18.2N 145.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 19.0N 147.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.4N 149.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.7N 151.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 19.8N 154.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.7N 158.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA44 PHFO 280916 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 PM HST TUE SEP 27 2005 LATEST FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE PLACED KENNETH A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN EXPECTED. EARLIER TODAY KENNETH TRIED TO DEVELOP MORE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER 0730Z IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING STATE TO THE CONVECTION AROUND KENNETH. THE FIXES MADE AROUND THE 06Z TIME FRAME HAD DVORAK NUMBERS RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3.0 FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES FOR A WIDE RANGE OF INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT WITH THE 45 KNOT WINDS AFTER LOOKING AT 0339Z QUICKSCAT PASS OVER KENNETH. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND RADII BASED ON THIS DATA TO INCREASE THE WIND RADII TO SLIGHTLY THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR KENNETH HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY BRINGING KENNETH INTO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE 5 PM PACKAGE NUMBERS THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ALSO...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TRACK ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL FORECASTS FOR TRACK. GOING TO KEEP WITH THE WEAKENING TREND OF KENNETH AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POINT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LAYER SHEAR GREATLY AROUND THE ISLANDS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. KENNETH COULD JUST BE A LOW LEVEL SWIRL OF CLOUDS AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA COULD COMBINE WITH KENNETH/S MOISTURE FIELD FOR A VERY WET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE ISLANDS. TROPICAL SYSTEMS INTERACTING WITH THE ISLANDS HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE PAST...KENNETH HAS A POSSIBILITY PRODUCING THESE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FORECASTER PROTON/HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.1N 144.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 18.2N 145.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 147.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 19.4N 149.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.7N 151.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 19.8N 154.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/0600Z 19.7N 158.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0600Z...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 281000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MY/272051Z SEP 05// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/280935ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.1N 106.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.3N 107.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 18.0N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.0N 109.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.5N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 21.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.0N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 272051Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 272100 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 280900 *** WARNING 280900. WARNING VALID 290900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 940 HPA AT 22.5N 136.5E NORTH OF PARECE VERA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 22.9N 134.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 280900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 280900UTC 22.5N 136.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM NORTHWEST 130NM SOUTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 290900UTC 22.9N 134.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 300600UTC 23.3N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 010600UTC 24.4N 128.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT =