** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 22.3N 137.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 134.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 23.5N 132.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 24.4N 128.4E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 22.3N 137.5E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM NORTHWEST 130NM SOUTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 290000UTC 22.6N 135.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 300000UTC 23.1N 133.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 010000UTC 23.9N 129.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP23 RJTD 280000 *** WARNING 280000. WARNING VALID 290000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 945 HPA AT 22.3N 137.5E NORTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 22.6N 135.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 23.1N 133.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 23.9N 129.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 280000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 280000UTC 22.3N 137.5E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 290000UTC 23.0N 135.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT 48HR POSITION 300000UTC 23.7N 132.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 010000UTC 24.1N 129.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN33 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 137.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 137.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 23.0N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.4N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 23.9N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 25.2N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 27.0N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 29.3N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 137.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTPA44 PHFO 280232 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 PM HST TUE SEP 27 2005 ALTHO A REPOSITIONING OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH GIVES IT A RAPID ACCELERATION IT IS STILL FOLLOWING THE PROJECTED NORTHWESTWARD PATH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SYSTEM SPEED. KENNETH IS HEADING TOWARD STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SHEARING AND WEAKENING. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF KENNETHS CBS FLATTENING...A POSSIBLE SIGN OF EARLY SHEARING. AFTER SHEARING AND DISSIPATION WE CONTINUE TO PROJECT A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND. FORECASTER MATSUDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 16.2N 143.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 17.1N 144.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.2N 145.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 18.9N 147.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 19.2N 149.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 19.6N 153.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/0000Z 19.6N 157.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 280300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 137.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 137.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 280300 RRB *** 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 23.0N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.4N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 280300 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 23.9N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 25.2N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 137.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 137.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 23.0N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.4N 134.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 23.9N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 25.2N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 27.0N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 29.3N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 137.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTPA24 PHFO 280235 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0300Z WED SEP 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 143.2W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM. PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 143.2W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 142.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 144.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.2N 145.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.9N 147.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.2N 149.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.6N 153.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 157.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 143.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 280236 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 500 PM HST TUE SEP 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR ISLANDS BUT COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE WEEKEND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.2 WEST OR ABOUT 820 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...16.2 N...143.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 280400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 054 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 142.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 142.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.1N 144.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 18.2N 145.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.9N 147.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.2N 149.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 19.6N 153.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.6N 157.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 280300 *** WARNING 280300. WARNING VALID 290300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 945 HPA AT 22.3N 137.1E NORTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 22.7N 135.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 280300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 280300UTC 22.3N 137.1E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM NORTHWEST 130NM SOUTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 290300UTC 22.7N 135.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 300000UTC 23.1N 133.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 010000UTC 23.9N 129.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 280538 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 142.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.7N 142.4W MODERATE 12UTC 28.09.2005 17.1N 144.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 17.0N 145.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.6N 148.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 16.9N 150.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 16.9N 153.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 15.4N 102.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.4N 102.9W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2005 15.6N 104.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 16.2N 105.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.1N 106.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 17.9N 107.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 18.9N 108.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 19.8N 109.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 20.7N 110.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 21.6N 110.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 22.8N 110.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 24.8N 110.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2005 26.3N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2005 27.9N 110.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.6N 31.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2005 9.6N 31.9W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2005 10.1N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2005 11.2N 33.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 12.0N 33.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2005 12.9N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 12.8N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 13.2N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 14.3N 32.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 15.6N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 17.0N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 18.1N 34.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2005 19.7N 34.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280538 ** WTIN20 DEMS 280545 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)