** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 22.1N 138.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.4N 135.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 24.2N 131.8E 930HPA 55M/S P+72HR 24.8N 128.4E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 950 HPA AT 22.1N 138.4E NORTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 22.5N 136.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 23.3N 134.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 24.0N 130.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 22.1N 138.4E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 22.5N 136.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 291800UTC 23.3N 134.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 301800UTC 24.0N 130.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 19N 103E MOVE W 10KT PRES 1000HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 271800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TD 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 271800UTC 19.0N 103.0E MOVEMENT W 10KT PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPA34 PHFO 272044 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH TO CONTINUE WEAKENING BUT MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE STATE BY THIS WEEKEND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.2 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...142.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 272045 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 2100Z TUE SEP 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 142.2W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 142.2W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 142.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.7N 142.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.7N 144.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.6N 145.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.3N 147.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 150.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.8N 154.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15N 142W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPN21 PHNC 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/272051ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 103.1W TO 17.3N 107.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM- BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANI- ZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULA- TION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 282100Z.// ** WTPA44 PHFO 272105 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2005 THE THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH APPEARS INCREASINGLY SPOTTY AND UNIMPRESSIVE. WE HAVE KEPT ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45 KNOTS WITH DIFFERENCE TO 40 KNOT QUICKSCAT OBSERVATIONS AND A DATA T OF 3.O. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEARING WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH TIME MAKING KENNETHS ABILITY TO SUSTAIN ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS VERY UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STORM WILL NOT REMOVE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BY ITS REMNANTS THIS WEEK END. THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY PATH HAS BEEN PRESERVED FOR THE SHORTER TERM BUT HAS CHANGED TO A MORE WESTERLY ORIENTATION IN THE LATE PERIODS AS INCREASING SHEAR WOULD DICTATE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS AND FAVORS THE CONCENSUS MODELS IN THE MAIN. FORECASTER MATSUDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.1N 142.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.7N 142.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.7N 144.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.6N 145.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 18.3N 147.1W 30 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 18.7N 150.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 01/1800Z 18.8N 154.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTJP33 RJTD 272100 *** WARNING 272100. WARNING VALID 282100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 945 HPA AT 22.4N 137.9E NORTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 22.5N 135.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 22.4N 137.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 22.5N 135.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 291800UTC 23.3N 134.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 301800UTC 24.0N 130.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 272200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 053 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 142.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 142.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.7N 142.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.7N 144.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.6N 145.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 18.3N 147.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 18.7N 150.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.8N 154.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.//