** WTIN20 DEMS 270620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH, SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP23 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 955 HPA AT 21.7N 140.1E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 22.7N 137.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 23.3N 134.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 23.9N 131.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 21.7N 140.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 22.7N 137.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 290600UTC 23.3N 134.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 300600UTC 23.9N 131.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 21.7N 140.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 100KM P-06HR 20.9N 141.7E 985HPA 25M/S P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.7N 137.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 23.6N 134.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 24.6N 130.1E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 21.7N 140.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.7N 137.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 23.6N 134.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 24.6N 130.1E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 19.7N 105.0E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 101.6E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 985 HPA AT 19.7N 105.0E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 20.8N 100.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 19.7N 105.0E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM EAST 120NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 20.8N 100.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 12 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINU OUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 270745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 270600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 270745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 270600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN33 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.4N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.1N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.6N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 24.1N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 25.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 26.1N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 27.6N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 139.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270753ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 105.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 105.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 20.2N 102.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.8N 101.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 104.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 270825 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 02Z HAD ONE LONELY RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KT VECTOR...AND SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT. WITH NORMA HAVING CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. NORMA NO LONGER HAS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WHILE THE CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS...NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY THE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GFS COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMA PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 21.9N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 27/1800Z 22.4N 117.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1800Z 21.8N 119.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 270825 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0900Z TUE SEP 27 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.5W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.5W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 117.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.8N 119.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 116.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 270853 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005 ALL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED LLCC. IN THE PAST SIX HOURS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER KENNETH ISN/T EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTENSE. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE THE NORMAL NIGHT TIME CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS TYPICAL IN THE TROPICS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ON THE IR IMAGERY. CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS FAIR AT BEST GIVEN THE SPREAD ON THE FIXES FROM DIFFERENT AGENCIES. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 3.0 TO 3.5 FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES CORRESPOND TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THIS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE 55 KNOTS STAND FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. KENNETH IS STILL WOBBLING AROUND AND HAS NOT YET STARTED ITS PROJECTED RUN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WE EXPECT THIS TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH RESIDED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE GFS MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOTS OF SHEAR WILL BE AFFECTING KENNETH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF KENNETH/S EXPECTED LIFE SPAN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ABOVE SCENARIO CLOSELY BY SLOWLY REDUCING THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH THROUGH 120 HOURS...THEN DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM. HAVE PLACED THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE TIGHTLY BUNCHED CONSENSUS MODELS...HOWEVER JUST RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GFS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. MOST ELEMENTS ARE WORKING AGAINST KENNETH...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AFTER JOVA/S PREVIOUS PASSING...STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER...AND THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION. ALL THIS IN MIND LEADS TOWARDS THE TRENDING OF THE INTENSITY DOWNWARD THROUGH 120 HOURS. FORECASTER PROTON/POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 14.3N 141.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.8N 142.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.9N 144.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 17.4N 145.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 18.7N 147.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 151.3W 30 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 21.9N 155.3W 25 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 160.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 270853 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0900Z TUE SEP 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 141.9W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 50SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 141.9W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 141.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.8N 142.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 144.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.4N 145.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.7N 147.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.5N 151.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.9N 155.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 160.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 141.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER PROTON/POWELL $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 270854 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1100 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.9 WEST OR ABOUT 950 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...14.3 N...141.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER PROTON/POWELL $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.4N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.1N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.6N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 24.1N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 25.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 26.1N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 27.6N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 139.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 270900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.4N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 270900 RRD *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 26.1N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 27.6N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 139.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 270900 RRC *** 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 24.1N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 25.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 270900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.1N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.6N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 270900 UTC 00HR 19.6N 104.5E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 270900 UTC 00HR 19.6N 104.5E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPN33 PHNC 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/270935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 018 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 116.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 116.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.4N 117.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 22.4N 118.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.8N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.3N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/270940ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 051 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 141.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 141.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 14.8N 142.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.9N 144.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.4N 145.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 18.7N 147.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.5N 151.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.5N 155.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 23.0N 160.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NORMA) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING// ** WTPN33 PHNC 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/270935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 116.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 116.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.4N 117.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 22.4N 118.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.8N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.3N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 270900 *** WARNING 270900. WARNING VALID 280900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 955 HPA AT 21.8N 139.6E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 22.8N 136.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 21.8N 139.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 22.8N 136.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 290600UTC 23.3N 134.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 300600UTC 23.9N 131.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 19.6N 104.6E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 20.8N 099.7E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =