** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC 00HR 21.5N 141.1E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P-06HR 20.9N 141.7E 985HPA 25M/S P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 138.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.8N 135.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.4N 131.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 270000 *** WARNING 270000. WARNING VALID 280000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 21.5N 141.0E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 22.7N 138.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 23.4N 136.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 23.8N 132.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 270000UTC 21.5N 141.0E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 280000UTC 22.7N 138.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 290000UTC 23.4N 136.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 300000UTC 23.8N 132.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 270000 UTC 00HR 19.5N 106.3E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 102.5E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 270000 *** WARNING 270000. WARNING VALID 280000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 975 HPA AT 19.6N 106.3E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 20.3N 102.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 270000UTC 19.6N 106.3E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 280000UTC 20.3N 102.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 270000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 270000UTC 21.5N 141.0E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 280000UTC 22.9N 138.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 290000UTC 23.7N 135.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 300000UTC 24.4N 132.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 270000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME STS 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 270000UTC 19.6N 106.2E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 271200UTC 20.0N 104.4E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 24HR POSITION 280000UTC 20.8N 102.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ32 RJTD 270000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 270100 UTC 00HR 19.5N 106.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 270145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 270000 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (102.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 270145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 270000 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (102.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPA24 PHFO 270230 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0300Z TUE SEP 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 141.4W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 141.4W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 141.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.8N 142.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.9N 145.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.2N 147.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 150.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 21.2N 153.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 22.4N 156.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 141.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 270230 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.4 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...14.2 N...141.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 270300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 22.5N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 23.2N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 23.6N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 24.1N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 25.0N 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 25.8N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 27.8N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 140.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 270240 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0300Z TUE SEP 27 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.4W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.4W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 116.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.7N 117.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 118.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 270240 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST MON SEP 26 2005 EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT JUST POPPED UP SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF KENNETH...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT VANISHED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION IS FAIR AT BEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE LESS PROBLEMATIC..RANGING AGAIN FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...OR BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. BASED ON THE PAUCITY OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A STILL CONSERVATIVE 55 KT. IT LOOKS LIKE KENNETH HAS STARTED ITS ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 270/5. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER HAWAII LIKELY INDICATES THE DEPARTURE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH. IT WAS THIS HIGH THAT STEERED KENNETH TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH IS BEING REPLACED BY A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL TURN KENNETH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...PLACING KENNETH JUST SOUTH OF A TIGHT BUNCH CONSENSUS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD... FIRSTLY AS IT MOVES IN A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...AND SECONDLY AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ALSO...SINCE KENNETH WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AS JOVA... IT MAY MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE WAKE OF JOVA. SOMETIME DURING DAY 4 AND DAY 5...KENNETH SHOULD BECOME A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE TRADE FLOW. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 14.4N 141.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 14.8N 142.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.9N 145.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 18.2N 147.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 150.6W 35 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 21.2N 153.7W 30 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 156.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 270241 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005 NORMA HAD CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SOME DEEP CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR MOST OF THE DAY... UNTIL VERY RECENTLY WHEN THE BURST THAT BEGAN AT ABOUT 21Z WENT ON A RAPID DECLINE. THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO THIS WANING CONVECTION MIGHT BE THE LAST GASP FOR NORMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT REMAINS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY TO STAY THIS STRONG FOR MUCH LONGER. PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR... COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... AND IN 12 TO 24 HOURS NORMA WILL PROBABLY LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/7. WHILE THE CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS... NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD TOMORROW AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. ONCE THE CONVECTION COMPLETELY DIES OFF... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 21.0N 115.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 116.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 28/0000Z 21.7N 117.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 118.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 270200 UTC 00HR 19.6N 105.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 270400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/270340ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 050 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 140.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 140.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 14.6N 141.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 15.4N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 16.2N 143.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.1N 145.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.8N 148.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.1N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 21.2N 154.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 270300 UTC 00HR 19.6N 105.5E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPN33 PHNC 270400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/270335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 115.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 115.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.5N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.7N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 21.5N 118.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 21.2N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP33 RJTD 270300 *** WARNING 270300. WARNING VALID 280300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 965 HPA AT 21.5N 140.5E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 22.7N 137.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 270300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 270300UTC 21.5N 140.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 280300UTC 22.7N 137.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 290000UTC 23.4N 136.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 300000UTC 23.8N 132.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 270300 *** WARNING 270300. WARNING VALID 280300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 980 HPA AT 19.5N 105.6E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 20.0N 101.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 270300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 270300UTC 19.5N 105.6E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 280300UTC 20.0N 101.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT80 EGRR 270453 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 140.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.0N 140.6W MODERATE 12UTC 27.09.2005 14.4N 142.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.2N 144.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2005 16.2N 145.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2005 17.4N 147.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 18.6N 150.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.9N 153.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 20.3N 155.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 20.8N 155.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 21.9N 159.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 21.9N 163.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 23.1N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2005 23.8N 169.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 115.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2005 20.5N 115.1W MODERATE 12UTC 27.09.2005 21.4N 115.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 21.5N 116.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 20.4N 116.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 15.6N 102.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.6N 102.0W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2005 16.2N 104.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 16.9N 105.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.9N 107.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.5N 108.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 20.7N 109.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 22.0N 110.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 22.7N 110.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 23.7N 111.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 25.3N 112.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2005 27.3N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270453 ** WTSS20 VHHH 270445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 270300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (101.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 270445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 270300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (101.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.