** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC 00HR 19.4N 107.5E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 104.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC 00HR 20.9N 141.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 138.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 23.4N 135.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 23.6N 133.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 261800 *** WARNING 261800. WARNING VALID 271800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 20.9N 141.7E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 21.6N 139.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 22.5N 136.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 23.2N 133.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 261800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 261800UTC 20.9N 141.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 271800UTC 21.6N 139.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 281800UTC 22.5N 136.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 291800UTC 23.2N 133.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 261800 *** WARNING 261800. WARNING VALID 271800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 975 HPA AT 19.5N 107.5E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 20.6N 104.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 261800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 261800UTC 19.5N 107.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 271800UTC 20.6N 104.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC 00HR 19.4N 107.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC 00HR 19.4N 107.5E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 104.0E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261900 UTC 00HR 19.4N 107.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 261945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 261800 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (103.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) NINE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (98.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 261945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 261800 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (103.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) NINE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (98.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 262100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261953ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 026 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 107.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 107.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.0N 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 20.7N 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 107.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH- EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LONGWANG) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 262100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261951ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 20.9N 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.9N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 22.6N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 23.0N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.3N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 23.6N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 24.1N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 25.1N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 141.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA24 PHFO 262030 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 2100Z MON SEP 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 140.6W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 140.6W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 140.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.6N 141.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 65NE 55SE 55SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.4N 142.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 143.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW. 34 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.8N 148.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.1N 152.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 21.2N 154.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 140.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 262031 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST MON SEP 26 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...14.5 N...140.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 262034 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 2100Z MON SEP 26 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.1W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.1W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.6N 116.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.5N 117.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.3N 118.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 20.0N 124.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 262037 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005 SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING. USING THE MEAN OF DVORAK T- AND C.I.- NUMBERS...WHICH IS ROUTINELY DONE AT THE NHC FOR WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... GIVES A CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. NORMA IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...SOME MORE FLAREUPS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW. PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. NORMA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...315/8. TRACK GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. NORMA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE...AND THEN THE WEAKENING REMNANT CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD AS ITS STEERING BECOMES MOST INFLUENCED BY FLOW IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 20.6N 115.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 21.2N 115.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 21.6N 116.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 117.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 28/1800Z 21.3N 118.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/1800Z 20.0N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 262047 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST MON SEP 26 2005 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES RANGED FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...OR BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. ON THE HIGH SIDE...AN AODT CALCULATION SUBMITTED BY PHFO CAME IN AT 4.5 OR 77 KT. ON THE LOW SIDE...A QUIKSCAT PASS HAD A SINGLE 40 KT WIND BARB. WILL STAY WITH A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT THIS TIME AROUND. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 230/5...WITH THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BEING A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MODELS MOVE THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND REPLACE IT WITH A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY 48 HOURS. KENNETH WILL ASSUME A NORTHWEST COURSE AS THE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...PLACING KENNETH WITHIN A TIGHT BUNCH OF CONSENSUS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD... FIRSTLY AS IT MOVES WITHIN A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT...AND SECONDLY AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOMETIME DURING DAY 4 AND DAY 5...KENNETH SHOULD BECOME A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SHOULD ASSUME A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE TRADE FLOW. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 14.5N 140.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 14.6N 141.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 15.4N 142.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.2N 143.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 17.1N 145.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 18.8N 148.7W 40 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 152.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 21.2N 154.9W 25 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 262000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 262000 UTC 00HR 19.4N 107.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 262100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 262100 UTC 00HR 19.4N 107.1E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 20.9N 103.5E 988HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ33 PGUM 262131 *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST TUE SEP 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 325 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND 510 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. LONGWANG IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. LONGWANG IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...21.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 141.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG. $$ PRIOR ** WTJP33 RJTD 262100 *** WARNING 262100. WARNING VALID 272100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 980 HPA AT 21.2N 141.5E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 22.1N 139.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 262100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 262100UTC 21.2N 141.5E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 272100UTC 22.1N 139.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 281800UTC 22.5N 136.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 291800UTC 23.2N 133.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 262200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/262140ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 049 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 140.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 140.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.6N 141.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 15.4N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.2N 143.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.1N 145.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 18.8N 148.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.1N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 21.2N 154.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270400Z, 271000Z, 271600Z AND 272200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 262200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/262135ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 016 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 114.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 114.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.2N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 21.6N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.5N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.3N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 20.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270400Z, 271000Z, 271600Z AND 272200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 262100 *** WARNING 262100. WARNING VALID 272100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 975 HPA AT 19.6N 107.0E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 20.6N 103.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 262100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 262100UTC 19.6N 107.0E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 272100UTC 20.6N 103.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 262200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 262200 UTC 00HR 19.4N 106.9E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 262245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 262100 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (102.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 262245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 262100 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (102.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 262300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 262300 UTC 00HR 19.5N 106.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 262300 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 262300 UTC 00HR 19.5N 106.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H=