** WTSR20 WSSS 260600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261200 UTC 00HR 19.1N 108.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 104.4E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 261200 UTC 00HR 20.3N 142.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.4N 139.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.4N 136.8E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 23.0N 134.4E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 261200UTC 39N 151E MOVE NE 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM = ** WTJP23 RJTD 261200 *** WARNING 261200. WARNING VALID 271200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 992 HPA AT 20.3N 142.4E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 21.2N 140.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 22.2N 138.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 23.0N 135.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 261200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 261200UTC 20.3N 142.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 271200UTC 21.2N 140.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 281200UTC 22.2N 138.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 291200UTC 23.0N 135.6E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 261200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME EXTRATROPICAL LOW 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 261200UTC 38.8N 151.0E MOVEMENT NE 21KT PRES 992HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 261200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 261200UTC 19.4N 108.1E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 271200UTC 20.6N 105.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 281200UTC 21.8N 101.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 261200 *** WARNING 261200. WARNING VALID 271200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 975 HPA AT 19.4N 108.1E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 20.6N 105.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 21.8N 101.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261300 UTC 00HR 19.1N 108.1E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 261345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 261200 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) NINE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (99.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 261345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 261200 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) NINE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (99.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ44 KNHC 261422 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS NOW OCCURRING IN ONLY A FEW PATCHES NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER PARTS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DECREASE IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE LAPSE RATES. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE AN INHIBITING INFLUENCE AS WELL. NORMA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL COMEBACK. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION...310/7...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST. A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER CONTINUES TO STEER NORMA NORTHWESTWARD. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS WESTWARD AND TO THE NORTH OF NORMA. IN 3-5 DAYS...THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHOULD BE THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORMA'S REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 19.6N 114.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 116.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 21.2N 117.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 28/1200Z 21.0N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 261422 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 1500Z MON SEP 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 114.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 114.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.0N 116.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.2N 117.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 118.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 261500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261353ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 17W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 108.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 108.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.7N 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.3N 104.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 20.9N 102.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 107.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST OF HAINAN, CHINA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LONGWANG) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA24 PHFO 261430 *** TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 1500Z MON SEP 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 141.1W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 141.1W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 140.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.9N 141.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 65NE 55SE 55SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.4N 142.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.2N 144.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 145.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N 148.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 19.9N 151.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 20.9N 154.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 141.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPN33 PGTW 261500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 142.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 142.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.9N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.9N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.6N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 23.4N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.8N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 24.0N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 24.3N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 141.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 261500 RRD *** 301200Z --- 24.0N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 24.3N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 141.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 261500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 142.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 142.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.9N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.9N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 261500 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.6N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 23.4N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 261500 RRC *** 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.8N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN33 PGTW 261500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (LONGWANG) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 142.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 142.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.9N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.9N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.6N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 23.4N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 23.8N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 24.0N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 24.3N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 141.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (LONGWANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA34 PHFO 261445 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST MON SEP 26 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 141.1 WEST OR ABOUT 985 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION 14.8 N 141.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 261448 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST MON SEP 26 2005 ...KENNETH WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 141.1 WEST OR ABOUT 985 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION 14.8 N 141.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261400 UTC 00HR 19.1N 108.1E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPA44 PHFO 261505 *** TCDCP4 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST MON SEP 26 2005 KENNETH HAS WEAKENED SINCE MOVING WEST OF 140W. BETWEEN 06 AND 12UTC...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. IT ALSO APPEARED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS EMERGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CHANGES STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS WEAKENING. CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1130 UTC RANGED FROM 3.0 TO 3.5. WE HAVE BEEN A BIT CONSERVATIVE AND DROPPED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST OVER KENNETH AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THESE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE SHOULD CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST...THEN NORTHWEST. WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING KENNETH IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM SO WE HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE TRACK WILL BE MORE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOWER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 14.8N 141.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 14.9N 141.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 15.4N 142.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 16.2N 144.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.1N 145.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 18.6N 148.1W 35 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 19.9N 151.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 20.9N 154.1W 25 KT $$ ** WTPQ33 PGUM 261527 *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST TUE SEP 27 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG STEADILY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN AND 460 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. LONGWANG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. LONGWANG IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...20.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 141.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM. $$ PRIOR ** WTPN32 PHNC 261600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/261540ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 048 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 11E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 140.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 140.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 14.9N 141.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.4N 142.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.2N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 17.1N 145.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.6N 148.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.9N 151.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.9N 154.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND 271600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261500 UTC 00HR 19.2N 108.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTJP33 RJTD 261500 *** WARNING 261500. WARNING VALID 271500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 990 HPA AT 20.5N 142.0E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 21.4N 139.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 261500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 261500UTC 20.5N 142.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 271500UTC 21.4N 139.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 281200UTC 22.2N 138.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 291200UTC 23.0N 135.6E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 261500 *** WARNING 261500. WARNING VALID 271500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 975 HPA AT 19.5N 107.9E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 20.8N 104.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 261500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 261500UTC 19.5N 107.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 271500UTC 20.8N 104.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 281200UTC 21.8N 101.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261600 UTC 00HR 19.3N 107.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 261703 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 140.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2005 15.2N 140.5W MODERATE 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.8N 142.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 15.3N 143.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.2N 145.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2005 17.1N 148.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 18.1N 150.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 18.7N 153.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 20.4N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 20.6N 156.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 20.5N 156.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 20.4N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 113.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2005 19.5N 113.9W MODERATE 00UTC 27.09.2005 20.4N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 21.1N 115.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 20.5N 116.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 15.6N 100.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2005 15.6N 100.1W WEAK 00UTC 28.09.2005 16.1N 102.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 16.2N 105.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 17.1N 106.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 18.2N 107.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.6N 109.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 20.7N 110.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 21.9N 110.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 22.3N 111.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 23.1N 111.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 24.7N 110.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.9N 24.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2005 8.9N 24.5W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2005 8.8N 26.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 8.7N 28.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 9.2N 28.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 9.7N 29.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 10.5N 31.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2005 11.9N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2005 12.8N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 13.1N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 12.9N 33.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 14.4N 34.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 15.4N 35.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2005 16.6N 35.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 22.8N 55.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2005 18.0N 52.5W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2005 19.5N 54.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 22.8N 55.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 24.2N 57.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 25.3N 58.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 26.4N 60.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2005 28.0N 60.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2005 30.2N 61.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2005 31.9N 61.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261703 ** WTSS20 VHHH 261645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 261500 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) NINE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (98.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 261645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 261500 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) NINE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (98.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261700 UTC 00HR 19.4N 107.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H=