** WTPQ20 BABJ 260500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260500 UTC 00HR 18.9N 109.1E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ33 PGUM 260610 CCA *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN...CORRECTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LONGWANG (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 400 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 26 2005 CORRECTED STORM NAME ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LONGWANG (19W) MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LONGWANG (19W) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 230 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 280 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LONGWANG IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LONGWANG IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...19.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 143.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MARN/EDSON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC 00HR 37.9N 148.9E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR ENE 30KM/H P+24HR 40.9N 163.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 260610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC 00HR 18.9N 109.1E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 105.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.0N 101.0E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTPZ61 KNHC 260648 *** TCUEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1145 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 KENNETH HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN AND THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FORECAST/ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMCP4 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO. TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP4 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 260600 *** WARNING 260600. WARNING VALID 270600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980 HPA AT 37.8N 148.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 39.3N 154.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 40.3N 162.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 37.8N 148.9E FAIR MOVE ENE 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 270NM WEST 250NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 40.3N 162.5E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC 00HR 20.0N 143.1E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 21.2N 140.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.6N 137.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 22.6N 133.9E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP23 RJTD 260600 *** WARNING 260600. WARNING VALID 270600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1000 HPA AT 20.0N 143.1E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 20.8N 140.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 22.4N 138.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 22.7N 136.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 20.0N 143.1E POOR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 20.8N 140.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 280600UTC 22.4N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 290600UTC 22.7N 136.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 260600 *** WARNING 260600. WARNING VALID 270600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 970 HPA AT 18.8N 108.9E HAINAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 19.9N 105.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 21.2N 101.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 18.8N 108.9E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 19.9N 105.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 280600UTC 21.2N 101.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 260600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME STS 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 260600UTC 37.8N 148.9E MOVEMENT ENE 16KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 261800UTC 39.5N 154.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 18HR POSITION 270000UTC 40.1N 158.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 260828 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005 AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 04Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT HAS BEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. THE CURRENT STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BUILD WESTWARD. BY THAT TIME...NORMA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PAST FEW IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE INCREASING...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION BY SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE DATA BEFORE MAKING SUCH AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... WHICH HAS DIMINISHED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z RANGED FROM 35 TO 45 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z JUST MISSED THE CENTER...BUT THERE WERE SOME 40 KT VECTORS DOWNWIND OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE ORGANIZATION OF NORMA...AND WITHIN ANOTHER 24 HOURS COOLER WATERS BECOME AN ADDITIONAL DRAG ON THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IF NORMA IS INDEED MOVING MORE TO THE RIGHT OR FASTER THAN PRESUMED HERE THEN DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.4N 113.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 260828 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0900Z MON SEP 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 113.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPA24 PHFO 260830 *** TCMCP4 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112005 0900Z MON SEP 26 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 140.2W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 140.2W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 140.1W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.1N 140.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.4N 141.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.1N 142.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.1N 144.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 60SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.3N 149.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.5N 152.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 140.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTPA34 PHFO 260845 *** TCPCP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST SUN SEP 25 2005 ...HURRICANE KENNETH HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC... AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...15.2 N...140.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 260846 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WEAKENING... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT 4 AM CDT...09Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR 80 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RITA WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL WAVE LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB...OR 29.71 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM CDT ...LOUISIANA... BUNKIE 16.00 LAPLACE 12.45 LOGANSPORT 9.81 PORT VINCENT 9.71 JENNINGS 9.39 BATON ROUGE 9.30 MILLERVILLE 9.12 LAFAYETTE 8.44 INNISWOLD 8.31 PRAIRIEVILLE 7.94 FORT POLK 7.39 NEW ORLEANS 6.32 SHREVEPORT 5.53 ...TEXAS... CENTER 10.48 BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.89 KARNACK 6.32 EVADALE 6.27 LONGVIEW 5.60 HARLETON 4.50 MARSHALL 4.28 JEFFERSON 4.22 LINDEN 3.70 DE KALB 3.00 ...ARKANSAS... BOUGHTON 5.88 STAR CITY 5.60 HOT SPRINGS 5.58 ARKANSAS CITY 5.36 LEOLA 5.25 DEMASCUS 5.10 LEWISVILLE 5.08 SPARKMAN 4.91 BENTON 4.88 MOUNT IDA 4.87 CAMDEN 4.75 TEXARKANA 4.03 LITTLE ROCK 3.46 ...MISSISSIPPI... GREENVILLE 8.37 NATCHEZ 7.80 PORT GIBSON 5.62 HOLLANDALE 5.45 LELAND 5.25 WAYSIDE 4.74 VICKSBURG 4.39 JACKSON 2.01 ...ALABAMA... ATMORE 4.30 CAMDEN 4.28 EVERGREEN 3.72 ALBERTA 3.51 BREWTON 3.15 SILVERHILL 3.14 WALLACE 2.90 THEODORE 2.59 UNIONTOWN 2.56 COFFEEVILLE 2.37 CLAIBORNE 2.13 ...MISSOURI... MYRTLE 2.15 WEST PLAINS 1.83 POPLAR BLUFF 1.68 WINONA 1.64 CAPE GIRARDEAU 1.24 ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 1.40 ...INDIANA... EAGLE CREEK ARPT 2.26 TERRE HAUTE 1.65 LAFAYETTE 1.47 BLOOMINGTON 1.45 EVANSVILLE 1.05 ...ILLINOIS... SCOTT AFB 2.16 HILDAGO 1.77 CHAMPAIGN/URBANA 1.60 DECATUR 1.54 WINDSOR 1.42 PALESTINE 1.14 CARBONDALE 1.13 MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...40.8 NORTH...86.8 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON RITA TO BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. TRIMARCO $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260800 UTC 00HR 18.9N 108.8E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 260903 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005 AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 04Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT HAS BEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. THE CURRENT STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BUILD WESTWARD. BY THAT TIME...NORMA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PAST FEW IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE INCREASING...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION BY SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE DATA BEFORE MAKING SUCH AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... WHICH HAS DIMINISHED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z RANGED FROM 35 TO 45 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z JUST MISSED THE CENTER...BUT THERE WERE SOME 40 KT VECTORS DOWNWIND OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE ORGANIZATION OF NORMA...AND WITHIN ANOTHER 24 HOURS COOLER WATERS BECOME AN ADDITIONAL DRAG ON THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. IF NORMA IS INDEED MOVING MORE TO THE RIGHT OR FASTER THAN PRESUMED HERE THEN DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 19.4N 113.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPA44 PHFO 260905 *** TCDCP4 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST SUN SEP 25 2005 HURRICANE KENNETH HAS VERY RELUCTANTLY ENTERED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT. THIS WAS DETERMINED AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE HURRICANE SPECIALIST AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA. WE EXAMINED THE GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOME VERY TIMELY MICROWAVE PASSES...AND FIXES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES TO MAKE THIS DETERMINATION. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF KENNETH IS WELL INTO THE CPHC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AS OF 11 PM HST. THE MOVEMENT FOR THIS ADVISORY IS TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...OR 210 DEGREES...AT 4 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF KENNETH APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE AMBIGUOUS THAN THE LOCATION OF ITS CENTER TONIGHT. IT WOULD APPEAR FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT IT IS FEELING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST OR WEST- SOUTHWEST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE SHOWING A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KENNETH. HOWEVER... THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDICATES VALUES OF ONLY ABOUT 4 KT FROM THE WEST. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS HURRICANE IS ALSO LIKELY CAUSING ADDITIONAL OCEAN UPWELLING IN ITS VICINITY. SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE PROVIDING CURRENT T-NUMBER INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 4.0. FOR THIS ADVISORY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF KENNETH IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL CPHC ADVISORY PACKAGE. THESE CHANGES WERE MAINLY TO ADJUST THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GUIDANCE. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WAS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNA...GUNS AND CONU BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS REDUCED 5 KT AT 36 AND 48 HOURS BASED ON THE GUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECASTER HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.2N 140.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.1N 140.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 15.4N 141.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.1N 142.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.1N 144.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 147.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.3N 149.8W 35 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 21.5N 152.9W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260900 UTC 00HR 18.9N 108.7E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 105.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 21.0N 100.8E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 260900 *** WARNING 260900. WARNING VALID 270900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 990 HPA AT 38.2N 149.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 39.6N 155.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 40.4N 163.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 38.2N 149.8E FAIR MOVE ENE 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 270NM WEST 250NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 40.4N 163.1E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP33 RJTD 260900 *** WARNING 260900. WARNING VALID 270900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 998 HPA AT 20.2N 142.8E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 21.1N 140.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 20.2N 142.8E POOR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 21.1N 140.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 280600UTC 22.4N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 290600UTC 22.7N 136.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ33 PGUM 260952 *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 26 2005 ...LONGWANG (19W) NOW A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...AS TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. AT 8 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG (19W) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT... 240 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 290 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 340 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN 410 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...AND 480 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION AND FORWARD SPEED WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM LONGWANG IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 8 PM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 142.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP32 RJTD 260900 *** WARNING 260900. WARNING VALID 270900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 19.1N 108.6E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 20.0N 105.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 19.1N 108.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 20.0N 105.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 280600UTC 21.2N 101.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 261000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/260940ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 047 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 140.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 140.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.1N 140.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.4N 141.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.1N 142.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.1N 144.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 19.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.3N 149.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.5N 152.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 261000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/260935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 113.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 113.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.3N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.1N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 21.5N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.5N 117.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 20.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 108.5E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 261045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 260900 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (100.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 261045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 260900 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (100.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 261100 UTC 00HR 19.0N 108.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H=