** WTPQ33 PGUM 260002 *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 930 AM GUAM LST MON SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W NEWLY FORMED NORTH OF THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 270 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN 355 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 455 MILES NORTH OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PROBABLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 144.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA/EDSON ** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ33 PGUM 260025 CCA *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 930 AM GUAM LST MON SEP 26 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W NEWLY FORMED NORTH OF THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 270 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN 355 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 455 MILES NORTH OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PROBABLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 144.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA/EDSON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 18.9N 109.9E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 106.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.8N 101.6E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 260000 *** WARNING 260000. WARNING VALID 270000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 970 HPA AT 36.9N 147.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 40.0N 158.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 36.9N 147.2E FAIR MOVE ENE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 270NM WEST 250NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 40.0N 158.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 36.7N 147.8E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H P+24HR 41.0N 161.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 260000 *** WARNING 260000. WARNING VALID 270000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 965 HPA AT 18.5N 109.9E HAINAN MOVING SOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 19.6N 106.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 20.0N 101.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 18.5N 109.9E GOOD MOVE SW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 19.6N 106.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 280000UTC 20.0N 101.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 260000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 260000UTC 18.5N 109.9E MOVEMENT SW 9KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 270000UTC 19.1N 106.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 280000UTC 19.8N 102.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ22 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 19.6N 143.5E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 21.0N 141.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 280000UTC 21.2N 139.0E 250NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 290000UTC 21.3N 137.4E 300NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP23 RJTD 260000 *** WARNING 260000. WARNING VALID 270000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0519 LONGWANG (0519) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 19.6N 143.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 21.0N 141.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 21.2N 139.0E WITH 250 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 21.3N 137.4E WITH 300 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS LONGWANG 0519 (0519) INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 19.6N 143.5E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR W SLOWLYKM/H P+24HR 21.0N 140.9E 993HPA 20M/S P+48HR 21.3N 138.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 21.5N 137.1E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 260000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG ANALYSIS POSITION 260000UTC 19.6N 143.5E MOVEMENT W 5KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 270000UTC 21.0N 141.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 280000UTC 21.9N 139.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 290000UTC 22.4N 137.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260100 UTC 00HR 18.9N 109.8E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 260145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 260000 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (101.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 260145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 260000 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (101.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ32 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 260245 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z MON SEP 26 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 140.0W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 140.0W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 139.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.4N 140.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.4N 141.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.8N 142.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.4N 143.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 146.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 140.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 260245 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILD-UP OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE WESTERN SIDE OF KENNETH REMAINS FAIRLY DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB AGREE THAT KENNETH REMAINS A HURRICANE. ALSO...THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES AN ADJUSTED DATA-T OF 4.1 OR 65 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KENNETH REMAINS A 65 KT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND AS THE SHEAR INCREASES BEYOND 48 HRS. FINALLY...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS STRONG SHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/3 AS KENNETH IS SET TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BOUNDARY THAT STARTS AT 140W. HOWEVER... VERY RECENTLY THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KENNETH WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IS AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM...THIS WILL MOVE KENNETH IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BEYOND 48 HRS... MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ACCELERATE KENNETH ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AS DO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...CONU AND GUNA... AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 06Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU. FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 15.6N 140.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 15.4N 140.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.4N 141.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 15.8N 142.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 16.4N 143.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.9N 146.1W 45 KT 96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 148.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 01/0000Z 21.0N 151.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260153ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 023 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 37.0N 147.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 37.0N 147.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 38.6N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 40.0N 157.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 37.4N 148.2E. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI- TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 143.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 143.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.7N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.2N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.8N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 143.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 260300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 143.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 143.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.7N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.2N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.8N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: ** WTPN33 PGTW 260300 RRB *** 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 143.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY/UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 143.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 143.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.7N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.2N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.8N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 143.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 143.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 143.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.7N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.2N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.8N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.6N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.7N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 143.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY/UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 260248 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS AND STILL APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... WHICH HAS LESSENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS ONE REMAINING CONVECTIVE BURST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 35-45 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 40 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM ORGANIZING. EVEN THOUGH NORMA MIGHT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE IN A DAY OR TWO TO WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE WEAKER... OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET COOLER ALONG THE WAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES AN EVEN FASTER PACE OF DECLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7... STILL NORTHWESTWARD BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE CURRENT STEERING IS PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA MOVES INLAND. AS A RESULT... A WEAKENING NORMA SHOULD BE FORCED TO THEN TURN WESTWARD... ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER AND STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT HAVE A SLIGHT EAST BIAS FOR A SYSTEM UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS TRACK IS ALSO A BIT SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFS THAN THE NOGAPS... SINCE THE LATTER DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG OF A CIRCULATION FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION AND EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 18.7N 113.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.3N 114.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 21.1N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 01/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 260248 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0300Z MON SEP 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 113.0W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 113.0W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 117.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 260253 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 34 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA PUSHING TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT REMAIN... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI... AND ALABAMA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT 10 PM CDT...03Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST...OR 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. RITA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS SHE CONTINUES HER JOURNEY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB...OR 29.65 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT ...LOUISIANA... BUNKIE 16.00 LAPLACE 12.45 LOGANSPORT 9.81 PORT VINCENT 9.71 JENNINGS 9.39 BATON ROUGE 9.30 MILLERVILLE 9.12 LAFAYETTE 8.44 INNISWOLD 8.31 PRAIRIEVILLE 7.94 FORT POLK 7.39 NEW ORLEANS 6.32 SHREVEPORT 5.53 ...TEXAS... CENTER 10.48 BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.89 KARNACK 6.32 EVADALE 6.27 LONGVIEW 5.60 HARLETON 4.50 MARSHALL 4.28 JEFFERSON 4.22 LINDEN 3.70 DE KALB 3.00 ...ARKANSAS... BOUGHTON 5.88 STAR CITY 5.60 HOT SPRINGS 5.58 ARKANSAS CITY 5.36 LEOLA 5.25 DEMASCUS 5.10 LEWISVILLE 5.08 SPARKMAN 4.91 BENTON 4.88 MOUNT IDA 4.87 CAMDEN 4.75 TEXARKANA 4.03 LITTLE ROCK 3.46 ...MISSISSIPPI... GREENVILLE 8.37 NATCHEZ 7.80 PORT GIBSON 5.62 HOLLANDALE 5.45 LELAND 5.25 WAYSIDE 4.74 VICKSBURG 4.39 JACKSON 2.01 ...ALABAMA... ATMORE 4.30 CAMDEN 4.28 EVERGREEN 3.72 ALBERTA 3.51 BREWTON 3.15 SILVERHILL 3.14 WALLACE 2.90 THEODORE 2.59 UNIONTOWN 2.56 COFFEEVILLE 2.37 CLAIBORNE 2.13 ...MISSOURI... MYRTLE 2.15 WEST PLAINS 1.83 POPLAR BLUFF 1.68 WINONA 1.64 CAPE GIRARDEAU 1.24 ...KENTUCKY... PADUCAH 1.40 ...INDIANA... TERRE HAUTE 1.23 BLOOMINGTON 1.11 EAGLE CREEK ARPT 1.06 EVANSVILLE 0.95 ...ILLINOIS... HILDAGO 1.77 DECATUR 1.54 WINDSOR 1.42 URBANA 1.32 PALESTINE 1.14 CARBONDALE 1.13 MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE LOCALLY FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...38.5 NORTH...89.5 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. TRIMARCO $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260200 UTC 00HR 18.9N 109.7E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 260400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/260340ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 046 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 139.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 139.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 15.4N 140.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 15.4N 141.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 15.8N 142.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.4N 143.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.9N 146.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.5N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.0N 151.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260153ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 023 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 110.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 110.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.1N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.5N 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.1N 104.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.7N 102.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 109.6E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 260300 *** WARNING 260300. WARNING VALID 270300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 970 HPA AT 37.2N 147.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 40.1N 161.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 37.2N 147.9E FAIR MOVE ENE 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 270NM WEST 250NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 40.1N 161.2E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN33 PHNC 260400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/260335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 112.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 112.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.4N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.3N 114.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.1N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 21.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.0N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ22 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0519 LONGWANG (0519) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 19.7N 143.4E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 21.0N 140.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 280000UTC 21.2N 139.0E 250NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 290000UTC 21.3N 137.4E 300NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260300 UTC 00HR 18.9N 109.4E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ33 PGUM 260349 *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANGWANG (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 145 PM GUAM LST MON SEP 26 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANGWANG (19W) MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANGWANG (19W) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 230 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 280 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 440 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANGWANG IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANGWANG IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...19.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 143.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MARN/EDSON ** WTJP32 RJTD 260300 *** WARNING 260300. WARNING VALID 270300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 970 HPA AT 18.6N 109.7E HAINAN MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 19.7N 105.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 18.6N 109.7E FAIR MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 19.7N 105.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 280000UTC 20.0N 101.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260153ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 023 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 110.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 110.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.1N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.5N 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.1N 104.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.7N 102.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 109.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 260445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 260300 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (101.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 260445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 260300 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (101.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 260400 UTC 00HR 18.9N 109.2E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 260533 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.09.2005 HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 139.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2005 15.6N 139.8W MODERATE 12UTC 26.09.2005 15.2N 140.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 15.3N 142.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 15.7N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 16.7N 146.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2005 17.0N 148.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 18.2N 151.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 18.2N 154.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.5N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 112.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2005 18.7N 112.6W WEAK 12UTC 26.09.2005 19.6N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 20.7N 114.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 21.3N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 21.0N 115.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 15.2N 103.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2005 15.2N 103.5W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2005 15.4N 105.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.0N 105.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 17.8N 106.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 18.8N 106.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 19.5N 106.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 20.2N 106.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2005 20.6N 105.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260533