** WTPQ20 BABJ 251700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251700 UTC 00HR 19.1N 110.9E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 19.1N 110.7E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 36.6N 146.3E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 40KM/H P+24HR 40.4N 156.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 19.1N 110.7E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 19.4N 106.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.0N 102.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 36.6N 146.3E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 40KM/H P+24HR 40.4N 156.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 251800 *** WARNING 251800. WARNING VALID 261800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 965 HPA AT 36.5N 146.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 40.1N 156.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 251800UTC 36.5N 146.4E GOOD MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM WEST 220NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 261800UTC 40.1N 156.8E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 251800 *** WARNING 251800. WARNING VALID 261800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 955 HPA AT 19.1N 110.7E HAINAN MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 19.7N 107.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 19.8N 102.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 251800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 251800UTC 19.1N 110.7E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261800UTC 19.7N 107.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 271800UTC 19.8N 102.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251900 UTC 00HR 19.0N 110.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 251800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 251800UTC 19.7N 144.0E POOR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 261800UTC 20.8N 142.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 251945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251800 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (102.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251800 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (102.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 110.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 110.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.3N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.6N 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.2N 105.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 20.7N 102.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 110.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (DAMREY) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ24 KNHC 252039 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 2100Z SUN SEP 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.4W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.4W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.3N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 118.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 252040 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT YET OBVIOUS. MY BEST ESTIMATE...USING THE LOW CLOUD LINES...IS THAT IT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME RECENT SSM/I IMAGERY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. NORMA REMAINS A POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING...DUE TO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS RAPIDLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. NORMA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING BEST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD...320/6. A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THIS REGIME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS LIKELY...DUE TO BOTH A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASED STEERING OF THE WEAKENED SYSTEM BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 18.2N 112.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 19.0N 113.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 19.9N 114.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.3N 116.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.5N 118.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 022 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 18W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 36.7N 146.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.7N 146.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 38.8N 150.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 40.8N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 37.2N 147.3E. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 252041 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z SUN SEP 25 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 139.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 139.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 139.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.4N 140.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.3N 141.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.4N 142.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.0N 151.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 139.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 252042 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND AN EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CURRENT TREND IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...INCREASING STABILITY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN KENNETH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE STEERING WINDS...BETWEEN A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENNETH...HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IN 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO TURN KENNETH TO THE RIGHT...AND INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SYSTEM'S RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD EXCURSION. NOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 00Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 15.8N 139.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.4N 140.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.3N 141.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.4N 142.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 151.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 252000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 110.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTNT33 KWNH 252102 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 33 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT REMAIN... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI... LOUISIANA...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NECHES... ANGELINA...BIG BLACK...CALCASIEU... AND MERMENTAU RIVERS. AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST...OR 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF BATESVILLE ARKANSAS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. RITA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS SHE CONTINUES HER JOURNEY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM CDT ...LOUISIANA... LAPLACE 12.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BUNKIE 10.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BATON ROUGE 9.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 JENNINGS 9.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LAFAYETTE 8.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 PORT VINCENT 8.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MILLERVILLE 8.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 INNISWOLD 7.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 FORT POLK 6.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BOSSIER CITY 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 NEW ORLEANS NORL1 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 EUNICE 6.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 SHREVEPORT 5.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...TEXAS... BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 EVADALE 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 CLEVELAND 3.8 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LONGVIEW 3.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LIVINGSTON 2.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...ARKANSAS... STUTTGART 5.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MOUNT IDA 4.9 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 HOT SPRINGS 4.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 TEXARKANA 4.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BATESVILLE 3.4 EL DORADO 3.2 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LITTLE ROCK 3.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MONTICELLO 2.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 DEQUEEN 2.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 JONESBORO 1.2 ...MISSISSIPPI... GREENVILLE 6.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 GREENWOOD 2.6 TUPELO 1.9 JACKSON 1.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...ALABAMA... EVERGREEN 3.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...36.4 NORTH...91.6 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK/BANN $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 252110 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 33 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT REMAIN... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI... LOUISIANA...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NECHES... ANGELINA...BIG BLACK...CALCASIEU... AND MERMENTAU RIVERS. AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST...OR 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF BATESVILLE ARKANSAS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD. RITA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS SHE CONTINUES HER JOURNEY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM CDT ...LOUISIANA... LAPLACE 12.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BUNKIE 10.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BATON ROUGE 9.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 JENNINGS 9.4 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LAFAYETTE 8.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 PORT VINCENT 8.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MILLERVILLE 8.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 INNISWOLD 7.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 FORT POLK 6.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BOSSIER CITY 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 NEW ORLEANS NORL1 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 EUNICE 6.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 SHREVEPORT 5.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...TEXAS... BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 EVADALE 6.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 CLEVELAND 3.8 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LONGVIEW 3.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LIVINGSTON 2.3 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...ARKANSAS... STUTTGART 5.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MOUNT IDA 4.9 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 HOT SPRINGS 4.7 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 TEXARKANA 4.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 BATESVILLE 3.4 EL DORADO 3.2 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 LITTLE ROCK 3.0 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MONTICELLO 2.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 DEQUEEN 2.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 JONESBORO 1.2 ...MISSISSIPPI... GREENVILLE 6.6 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 GREENWOOD 2.6 TUPELO 1.9 JACKSON 1.1 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 ...ALABAMA... EVERGREEN 3.5 THROUGH 7 AM SEPT 25 MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...36.6 NORTH...91.2 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. SZATANEK/BANN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 252100 UTC 00HR 19.0N 110.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 252100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 252100UTC 36.7N 146.9E FAIR MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM WEST 220NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 262100UTC 40.0N 157.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 252100 *** WARNING 252100. WARNING VALID 262100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 965 HPA AT 36.7N 146.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 40.0N 157.3E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN32 PHNC 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/252140ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 045 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 139.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 139.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.4N 140.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.3N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.4N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.0N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.5N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.0N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.0N 151.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 252100 *** WARNING 252100. WARNING VALID 262100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 955 HPA AT 18.8N 110.3E HAINAN MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 19.6N 106.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 252100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 252100UTC 18.8N 110.3E GOOD MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 262100UTC 19.6N 106.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 271800UTC 19.8N 102.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 252100 UTC 00HR 19.0N 110.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 19.5N 106.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.2N 101.7E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ22 RJTD 252100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 252100UTC 19.8N 143.8E POOR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 262100UTC 20.8N 142.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN33 PGTW 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251551Z SEP 05// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251521ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 144.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 144.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.7N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.6N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.4N 139.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.0N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.8N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 144.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF C, NAVPACMETOCCEN 251551ZSEP2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 251530). NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 252200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251551Z SEP 05// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251521ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 144.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 144.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.7N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.6N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.4N 139.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN33 PGTW 252200 RRB *** 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.0N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.8N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 144.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF C, NAVPACMETOCCEN 251551ZSEP2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 251530). NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PGTW 252200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251551Z SEP 05// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251521ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 144.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 144.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.7N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.6N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.4N 139.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.0N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.8N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 144.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF C, NAVPACMETOCCEN 251551ZSEP2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 251530). NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 252245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 252100 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (102.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 252245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 252100 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (102.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 252200 UTC 00HR 18.8N 110.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 252300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 252300 UTC 00HR 18.8N 110.0E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ33 PGUM 252345 CCA *** TCPPQ3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 930 AM GUAM LST MON SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W NEWLY FORMED NORTH OF THE MARIANAS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 270 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN 355 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 455 MILES NORTH OF GUAM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PROBABLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 144.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA/EDSON