** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC 00HR 19.0N 111.8E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSR20 WSSS 250600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 251200 *** WARNING 251200. WARNING VALID 261200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 965 HPA AT 35.7N 144.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 40.0N 153.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 41.4N 170.6E WITH 190 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 251200UTC 35.7N 144.7E GOOD MOVE NE 20KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 261200UTC 40.0N 153.8E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 271200UTC 41.4N 170.6E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC 00HR 35.7N 144.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 40KM/H P+24HR 39.6N 154.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC 00HR 19.0N 111.8E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 19.2N 108.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 19.8N 104.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.5N 100.4E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 251200 *** WARNING 251200. WARNING VALID 261200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 955 HPA AT 19.2N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 19.4N 108.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 19.6N 102.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 251200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 251200UTC 19.2N 111.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261200UTC 19.4N 108.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 271200UTC 19.6N 102.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPZ44 KNHC 251438 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED BY A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON. IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NORMA MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/7. STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM THIS HIGH...AS A TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT AND WEAKENS. THIS PATTERN WOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT...TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN 3-5 DAYS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 18.0N 111.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 18.6N 112.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 19.6N 113.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 21.3N 115.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z 21.0N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 251439 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 1500Z SUN SEP 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.6W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.6W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 112.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.6N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.0N 123.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 251440 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z SUN SEP 25 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 139.7W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 139.7W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 139.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.8N 140.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.0N 142.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 147.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 139.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 251440 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 KENNETH REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE AND AN EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...65 KT...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. ALTHOUGH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS CAUSE WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. KENNETH IS DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD...260/2...AS IT HAS BEEN LOCATED IN A REGION OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KENNETH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...AND ALSO TO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AND SIMILAR TO IT IN THE LATTER PERIODS. THIS IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION FOR THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.3N 139.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.8N 140.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 142.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.5N 147.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251300 UTC 00HR 19.1N 111.7E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT33 KWNH 251500 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 32 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 10 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI... ARKANSAS...TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI... LOUISIANA...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. AT 10 AM CDT...15Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST...OR 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT ...LOUISIANA... LAPLACE 12.4 BUNKIE 10.0 BATON ROUGE 9.4 JENNINGS 9.4 LAFAYETTE 8.6 PORT VINCENT 8.1 MILLERVILLE 8.1 INNISWOLD 7.3 FORT POLK 6.7 BOSSIER CITY 6.3 NEW ORLEANS NORL1 6.3 EUNICE 6.1 SHREVEPORT 5.5 ...TEXAS... BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.6 CENTER 8.5 THROUGH 130 PM 9/24 EVADALE 6.3 CLEVELAND 3.8 LONGVIEW 3.3 LIVINGSTON 2.3 ...ARKANSAS... STUTTGART 5.7 MOUNT IDA 4.9 HOT SPRINGS 4.7 TEXARKANA 4.0 PINE BLUFF 3.4 EL DORADO 3.2 LITTLE ROCK 3.0 MONTICELLO 2.6 DEQUEEN 2.5 ...MISSISSIPPI... GREENVILLE 6.6 JACKSON 1.1 ...ALABAMA... EVERGREEN 3.5 ...FLORIDA... MIAMI 3.1 MARATHON AIRPORT 1.9 KEY WEST INTL AIRPORT 1.4 MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...35.2 NORTH...91.6 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 4 PM CDT/5 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. BANN/SULLIVAN $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 251345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251200 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) NINE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (99.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 251200 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) NINE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (99.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 251500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 111.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 111.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.1N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.3N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.6N 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 20.2N 104.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 21.4N 101.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 111.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (DAMREY) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF HAINAN, CHINA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251400 UTC 00HR 19.1N 111.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251500 UTC 00HR 19.1N 111.3E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 251500 *** WARNING 251500. WARNING VALID 261500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 965 HPA AT 36.2N 145.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES WEST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 40.0N 154.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 251500UTC 36.2N 145.8E FAIR MOVE ENE 17KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM WEST 200NM EAST FORECAST 24HF 261500UTC 40.0N 154.7E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 271200UTC 41.4N 170.6E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN21 PGTW 251530 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251551Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZSEP2005// REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 145.6E TO 23.2N 141.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 145.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 146.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INDEPENDENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T1.5 ACROSS ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS IN AN EN- VIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, AND IN- CREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SATELLITE- BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 261530Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 251500 *** WARNING 251500. WARNING VALID 261500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 955 HPA AT 19.3N 111.1E HAINAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 19.5N 107.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 251500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 251500UTC 19.3N 111.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261500UTC 19.5N 107.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 271200UTC 19.6N 102.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT80 EGRR 251719 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.09.2005 HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 139.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2005 16.2N 139.5W MODERATE 00UTC 26.09.2005 16.2N 140.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 15.7N 141.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.6N 143.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 15.6N 146.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.5N 149.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 16.4N 153.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 17.2N 156.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 111.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2005 17.7N 111.4W MODERATE 00UTC 26.09.2005 18.9N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 20.2N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 21.2N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 21.0N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 15.3N 104.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2005 15.3N 104.1W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2005 16.2N 105.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.2N 107.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.0N 107.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 19.0N 108.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 19.6N 108.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2005 19.6N 108.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251719 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251600 UTC 00HR 19.1N 111.1E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPN21 PGTW 251530 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251551Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZSEP2005// REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251352ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 145.6E TO 23.2N 141.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 145.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 146.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INDEPENDENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T1.5 ACROSS ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS IN AN EN- VIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, AND IN- CREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SATELLITE- BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 261530Z.//