** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 19.0N 112.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 19.1N 109.3E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 19.8N 105.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.2N 101.1E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 34.7N 142.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 35KM/H P+24HR 37.6N 150.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 41.0N 160.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 250600UTC 34.7N 142.9E GOOD MOVE NE 22KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260600UTC 38.3N 150.9E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 270600UTC 40.5N 162.5E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 250600 *** WARNING 250600. WARNING VALID 260600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 960 HPA AT 34.7N 142.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 22 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 36.6N 146.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 38.3N 150.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 40.5N 162.5E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 250648 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP22 RJTD 250600 *** WARNING 250600. WARNING VALID 260600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 955 HPA AT 19.1N 112.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 19.5N 109.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 19.7N 106.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 20.0N 102.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 250600UTC 19.1N 112.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260600UTC 19.5N 109.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 270600UTC 19.7N 106.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 280600UTC 20.0N 102.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 250600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 250600UTC 34.7N 142.9E MOVEMENT NE 22KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 260600UTC 38.6N 151.1E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 270600UTC 41.0N 162.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250700 UTC 00HR 19.0N 112.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 250745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250600 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (101.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 250745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250600 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (101.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPZ24 KNHC 250830 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0900Z SUN SEP 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 113.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 250831 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0900Z SUN SEP 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 113.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 250831 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KENNETH HAS A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RECENT SSM/IS AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT BASED ON THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES AND THE PRESENCE OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W BETWEEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECASTING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW NORTH OF KENNETH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO BUT STAY SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE GIVE THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION OF THIS STORM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36 HR AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTERWARDS. KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW FOR IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. WHILE NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.5N 139.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.3N 140.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 16.2N 140.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 16.1N 141.2W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.2N 142.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 149.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 250831 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z SUN SEP 25 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.6W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.6W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 139.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.3N 140.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.2N 140.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 141.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.2N 142.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 149.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 139.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250800 UTC 00HR 19.0N 112.3E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPZ44 KNHC 250844 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NORMA IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND THE EXPOSED CENTER. THIS INTENSITY IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG 24N 120W...WITH A DIGGING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 27N130W. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER NORMA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 48 HR OF SO...THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN... ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD AND TURN NORMA WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. IT IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. NORMAL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY SHEAR ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR 48-72 HR...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLY CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER 72 HR...BUT BY THAT TIME NORMA SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATERS. THIS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.4N 111.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 19.9N 113.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 20.7N 114.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT33 KWNH 250905 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 31 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...AND TENNESSEE. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...ALABAMA.. .AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT 4 AM CDT...09Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1 AM CDT ...LOUISIANA... LAPLACE 12.4 BUNKIE 10.0 BATON ROUGE 9.4 JENNINGS 9.4 PORT VINCENT 8.1 MILLERVILLE 8.1 INNISWOLD 7.3 FORT POLK 6.7 BOSSIER CITY 6.3 NEW ORLEANS NORL1 6.3 SHREVEPORT 5.5 ...TEXAS... BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.6 CENTER 8.5 THROUGH 130 PM 9/24 EVADALE 6.3 CLEVELAND 3.8 LONGVIEW 3.3 LIVINGSTON 2.3 ...ARKANSAS... STUTTGART 5.2 MOUNT IDA 4.4 HOT SPRINGS 4.1 TEXARKANA 3.9 PINE BLUFF 2.9 EL DORADO 2.8 LITTLE ROCK 2.6 MONTICELLO 2.6 DEQUEEN 2.5 ...ALABAMA... EVERGREEN 3.2 ...FLORIDA... MIAMI 3.1 MARATHON AIRPORT 1.9 KEY WEST INTL AIRPORT 1.4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...34.2 NORTH...92.8 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD... NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 AM CDT/11 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. TRIMARCO/PETERSEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250900 UTC 00HR 19.0N 112.2E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 19.2N 109.0E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 19.8N 105.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 21.0N 101.1E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 250900 *** WARNING 250900. WARNING VALID 260900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 960 HPA AT 35.4N 143.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 22 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 37.6N 147.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 39.5N 152.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 250900UTC 35.4N 143.9E GOOD MOVE NE 22KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260900UTC 39.5N 152.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 270600UTC 40.5N 162.5E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 250900 *** WARNING 250900. WARNING VALID 260900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 955 HPA AT 19.0N 112.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 19.3N 108.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 250900UTC 19.0N 112.3E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260900UTC 19.3N 108.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 270600UTC 19.7N 106.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 280600UTC 20.0N 102.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN33 PHNC 251000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/250935ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 111.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 111.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.0N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.9N 112.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.9N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.7N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 251000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/250940ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 043 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 139.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 139.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.3N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.2N 140.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.1N 141.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.2N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 19.0N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.0N 149.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250752ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 112.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 112.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.0N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.1N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.4N 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.8N 105.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.1N 102.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 111.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST OF HAINAN, CHINA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 34.7N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.7N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 37.2N 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 39.4N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 40.9N 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 35.3N 143.8E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 112.0E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 251045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250900 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (100.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 251045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250900 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (100.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT33 KWNH 251126 *** TCPAT3 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 31 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 4 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...AND TENNESSEE. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...TENNESSEE...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...ALABAMA.. .AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT 4 AM CDT...09Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1 AM CDT ...LOUISIANA... LAPLACE 12.4 BUNKIE 10.0 BATON ROUGE 9.4 JENNINGS 9.4 PORT VINCENT 8.1 MILLERVILLE 8.1 INNISWOLD 7.3 FORT POLK 6.7 BOSSIER CITY 6.3 NEW ORLEANS NORL1 6.3 SHREVEPORT 5.5 ...TEXAS... BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 8.6 CENTER 8.5 THROUGH 130 PM 9/24 EVADALE 6.3 CLEVELAND 3.8 LONGVIEW 3.3 LIVINGSTON 2.3 ...ARKANSAS... STUTTGART 5.2 MOUNT IDA 4.4 HOT SPRINGS 4.1 TEXARKANA 3.9 PINE BLUFF 2.9 EL DORADO 2.8 LITTLE ROCK 2.6 MONTICELLO 2.6 DEQUEEN 2.5 ...ALABAMA... EVERGREEN 3.2 ...FLORIDA... MIAMI 3.1 MARATHON AIRPORT 1.9 KEY WEST INTL AIRPORT 1.4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...34.2 NORTH...92.8 WEST... MOVEMENT TOWARD... NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 20 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 10 AM CDT/11 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. TRIMARCO/PETERSEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 251100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 251100 UTC 00HR 19.0N 111.9E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 15KM/H=