** WTNT33 KNHC 242359 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS... AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR VERY NEAR SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO ABOUT 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. THE COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. HOWEVER... TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF RITA... OVER LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND ARKANSAS. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...32.5 N... 94.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 250000 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC245-361-GMZ450-455-470-475-250300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 HIGH-ISLAND-TX 29.54N 94.39W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...LCH... ** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 250006 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 29A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... RITA PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES A MEDIDA QUE SE DEBILITA GRADUALMENTE... A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z..EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA ES DECONTINUADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.0 OESTE...O COMO A 25 MILLAS O MUY CERCA DE SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NORESTE Y ESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION SE ESPERA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA SE ESPERA QUE SE FORME EN DEPRESION TROPICAL TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 983 MILIBARAS...29.03 PULGADAS. LAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DEBEN CONTINUAR BAJANDO LENTAMENTE ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO... EL OLEAJE A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL SURESTE DE LUISIANA Y MISSISSIPPI EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA PODRIAN SER DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL Y PUDIERAN ESTAR ACOMPANADAS POR OLAS GRANDES. LOS RESIDENTES EN ESA AREA ESTAN EXPERIMENTANDO INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. MAREJADAS GRANDES GENERADAS POR RITA PODRIAN CONTINUAR AFECTANDO LAS PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL ENTRE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DEL PASO DE LA TORMENTA DESDE EL NORESTE DE TEXAS HACIA EL NORTE DENTRO DE PORCIONES DEL OESTE DE LOS VALLES DE MISSISSIPPI. TOTALES MAXIMOS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY Y ESTA NOCHE...SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE ARKANSAS Y MISSISSIPPI. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...32.5 NORTE...94.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...983 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION: CASTRO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC 00HR 18.9N 112.9E 965HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 18.8N 109.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 19.6N 105.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.0N 101.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTUS84 KFWD 250035 *** HLSFWD TXZ122-135-146>148-161-162-175-250230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 730 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...LOCATED NEAR SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA AT 700 PM CDT... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 900 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 900 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PARIS...TO CORSICANA AND CENTERVILLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 900 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO HILLSBORO AND KILLEEN. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST...MOVING NORTH AT 11 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LOCATED IN AND NEAR THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SHOULD CONTINUE PERSONAL SAFETY PREPARATIONS IF NOT COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH DUSK... LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS... BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST IN CASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS MOBILE HOMES...SHEDS...OPEN CAR PORTS...AND OUT-BUILDINGS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF WATER PONDING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NONE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM CDT ...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM RITA. $$ 65/DD ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC 00HR 33.2N 140.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 30KM/H P+24HR 37.0N 148.0E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 40.0N 157.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 250000 *** WARNING 250000. WARNING VALID 260000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 955 HPA AT 33.1N 140.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 35.1N 144.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 36.8N 147.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 40.4N 156.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 33.1N 140.8E GOOD MOVE ENE 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 36.8N 147.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 270000UTC 40.4N 156.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 250000 *** WARNING 250000. WARNING VALID 260000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 960 HPA AT 18.8N 113.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 19.0N 110.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 19.5N 107.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 20.1N 102.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 18.8N 113.1E GOOD MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 19.0N 110.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 270000UTC 19.5N 107.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 280000UTC 20.1N 102.9E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPA43 PHFO 250114 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST SAT SEP 24 2005 THE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA NO LONGER SHOWS ANY WEST WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AND WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CLOUD SWIRL ESTIMATED AT 20 KT...THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THIS IS THE LAST ISSUANCE BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 23.8N 155.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 250118 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-250400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 815 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR VERNON...RAPIDES...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST LANDRY...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER ST MARTIN...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...ST MARY...AND LOWER ST MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FOR BEAUREGARD... CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ALLEN...VERNON...RAPIDES...AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR VERY NEAR SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SHOULD REMAIN IN A SAFE SHELTER TONIGHT. IF YOU EVACUATED PRIOR TO THE STORM YOU SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO YOUR HOME UNTIL LOCAL AUTHORITIES SAY THAT IT IS SAFE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SEE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. NEXT HIGH TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: SUNDAY HIGH/2:05 AM CALCASIEU PASS: SUNDAY HIGH/11:45 PM SOUTHWEST PASS: SUNDAY HIGH/2:33 AM ...WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA YOU CAN EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 POSSIBLE ... ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR RAINBANDS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE COASTAL COUNTIES WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON TO LAKE CHARLES TO FORT POLK SOUTH. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BANDS OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE LAKE CHARLES WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 250000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 250000UTC 18.8N 113.1E MOVEMENT WSW 6KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 260000UTC 18.7N 110.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 270000UTC 19.4N 106.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 72HR POSITION 280000UTC 20.4N 103.1E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250100 UTC 00HR 18.9N 112.8E 965HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 250145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250000 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (103.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 250145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250000 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (103.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250152ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 113.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 113.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 18.5N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 18.6N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.8N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.2N 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 20.4N 102.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 112.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF HAINAN, CHINA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 33.3N 141.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.3N 141.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 35.7N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 38.3N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 40.2N 155.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 142.0E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 250230 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0300Z SUN SEP 25 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 155.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1015 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 155.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 154.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 155.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 250231 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST SAT SEP 24 2005 THE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA NO LONGER SHOWS ANY WEST WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AND WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CLOUD SWIRL ESTIMATED AT 20 KT...THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THIS IS THE LAST ISSUANCE BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 23.8N 155.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 250233 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST SAT SEP 24 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA IS DISSIPATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES NORTH OF HILO, HAWAII AND ABOUT 255 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU, OAHU. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...23.8 N...155.0 W. THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATED. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 250233 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT REMAINS A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. THE COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER... TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH RITA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF RITA... OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ARKANSAS... AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...33.0 N... 93.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON RITA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT SUNDAY. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 250233 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z SUN SEP 25 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 93.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 93.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 94.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 34.2N 93.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 35.4N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 36.3N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.0N 87.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 93.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 250233 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.4N 91.8W 32 X X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 1 X 2 36.3N 89.8W 8 8 1 X 17 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 2 X 3 37.0N 87.6W X 9 4 X 13 PENSACOLA FL X 3 1 X 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 X 2 MOBILE AL 1 2 1 X 4 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 X 2 GULFPORT MS X 2 1 X 3 ST MARKS FL X 1 2 X 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250200 UTC 00HR 18.9N 112.8E 965HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT43 KNHC 250243 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VELOCITY DATA FROM THE WSR-88D RADAR IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA INDICATE THAT RITA IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... BUT THERE ARE A FEW OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE RADAR IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION IS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... EVEN THOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND PERHAPS MERGE WITH A FRONT IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. SINCE ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AND RITA IS NOW BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...HPC...BEGINNING AT 4 PM CDT SUNDAY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 33.0N 93.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 34.2N 93.4W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/0000Z 35.4N 91.8W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/1200Z 36.3N 89.8W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/0000Z 37.0N 87.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 250257 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0300Z SUN SEP 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 110.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 110.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 250258 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z SUN SEP 25 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 139.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 139.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 139.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 139.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 140.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.1N 140.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.5N 141.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 143.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 139.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 250300 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF KENNETH DEPICTS A SYMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A MOSTLY ENCLOSED EYEWALL WITH A PARTIAL OPENING IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE KENNETH IS VERY LIKELY A HURRICANE OR CLOSE TO IT. LIKEWISE...THE MOST RECENT CSU-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDS 64 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KTS WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SHIPS INTENSITY AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE KENNETH WILL REMAIN AT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAYS OVER 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. KENNETH WILL START TO WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND OCEAN SSTS LOWER TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS KEEPING KENNETH A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HRS AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3 WHICH AMOUNTS TO A SLOW CRAWL. KENNETH STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO MAKE IT ACROSS 140W. THE SYSTEM IS WEDGED IN WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND 72 HRS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS STARTS TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 16.4N 139.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 16.3N 139.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.1N 140.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 16.1N 140.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 16.5N 141.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.0N 143.1W 55 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 250304 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... RITA SE DEBILITA A DEPRESION TROPICAL PERO PERMANECE COMO UN PRODUCTOR DE FUERTES LLUVIAS... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE...O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL NORTE DE SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NORESTE SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD SON PROBABLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. LAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS DEBEN CONTINUAR BAJANDO LENTAMENTE ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO... EL OLEAJE A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DEL SURESTE DE LUISIANA Y MISSISSIPPI EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA PODRIAN SER DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL Y PUDIERAN ESTAR ACOMPANADAS POR OLAS GRANDES. LOS RESIDENTES EN ESA AREA ESTAN EXPERIMENTANDO INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. MAREJADAS GRANDES GENERADAS POR RITA PODRIAN CONTINUAR AFECTANDO LAS PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL ENTRE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DEL PASO DE LA TORMENTA DESDE EL NORESTE DE TEXAS HACIA EL NORTE DENTRO DE PORCIONES DEL OESTE DE LOS VALLES DE MISSISSIPPI. TOTALES MAXIMOS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY Y ESTA NOCHE Y EL DOMINGO SOBRE AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE RITA...SOBRE EL NORTE DE LOUISIANA...EL NORTE Y OESTE DE MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...Y EL OESTE DE TENNESSEE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...33.0 NORTE...93.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MB. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE RITA. FUTURA INFORMACION DE ESTE SISTEMA SE PUEDE ENCONTAR EN LOS AVISOS PUBLICOS EMITIDOS POR EL CENTRO DE PREDICIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION: CASTRO ** WTPZ44 KNHC 250304 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 EASTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING... WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE GENERALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM... THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM BEGINS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY BUT SEEMS TO BE EDGING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT TWO KNOTS. THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST SHOULD SOON START DRAGGING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ALONG...AND THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SHOULD INDUCE NORMA ALONG A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST AS NORMA WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO ITS NORTHWEST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 16.8N 110.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.3N 112.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTUS84 KFWD 250307 *** HLSFWD TXZ122-135-146>148-161-162-175-250400- TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1006 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTH... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM...TO CRANDALL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 11 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH RITA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BONHAM...TO CRANDALL...SHOULD SECURE LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS. BRIEF POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE... SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...SPARE BATTERIES...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS AVAILABLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... NONE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... NONE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA. UPDATED INFORMATION ON LINGERING EFFECTS FROM RITA WILL BE GIVEN IN OUR NON PRECIPITATION ADVISORY AND SHORT TERM FORECAST PRODUCTS. $$ 06 ** WTJP31 RJTD 250300 *** WARNING 250300. WARNING VALID 260300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 955 HPA AT 34.0N 141.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.1N 145.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 37.9N 148.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 250300UTC 34.0N 141.8E GOOD MOVE NE 20KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260300UTC 37.9N 148.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 270000UTC 40.4N 156.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN32 PHNC 250400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/250330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/250340ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 042 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 139.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 139.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.3N 139.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.1N 140.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.1N 140.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.5N 141.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 18.0N 143.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 19.5N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 20.0N 149.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250300 UTC 00HR 18.9N 112.7E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 250300 *** WARNING 250300. WARNING VALID 260300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) 955 HPA AT 18.9N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 19.0N 110.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 250300UTC 18.9N 112.7E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260300UTC 19.0N 110.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 270000UTC 19.5N 107.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 280000UTC 20.1N 102.9E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN33 PHNC 250400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/250330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/250335ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 110.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 110.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.4N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 18.3N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.2N 113.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 20.2N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 20.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250400 UTC 00HR 18.9N 112.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 250445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250300 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (102.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 250445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250300 UTC, TYPHOON DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 40 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (102.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 250500 UTC 00HR 18.9N 112.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 250537 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.8N 154.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2005 23.8N 154.4W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2005 24.3N 156.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 139.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2005 16.3N 139.3W MODERATE 12UTC 25.09.2005 16.3N 140.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 16.1N 141.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 15.3N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.7N 145.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 14.7N 148.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.4N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2005 15.6N 154.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 110.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2005 16.5N 110.8W MODERATE 12UTC 25.09.2005 17.1N 110.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 17.9N 111.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 19.2N 112.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 20.3N 113.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 21.1N 113.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 20.5N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 15.6N 103.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.6N 103.5W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2005 15.7N 105.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 16.4N 106.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.7N 107.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.7N 108.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2005 19.5N 109.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2005 19.7N 109.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 94.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2005 32.8N 94.3W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2005 34.0N 92.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 36.2N 91.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 34.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2005 12.8N 34.0W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2005 14.4N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 14.8N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 15.2N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 17.2N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 17.8N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 18.5N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2005 18.8N 45.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2005 19.2N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2005 19.3N 48.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 19.7N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2005 20.2N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2005 19.8N 52.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250537