** WTUS84 KLIX 240608 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056-058>070-240800- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 107 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...OVER TOPPING ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEES CONTINUES WITH FLOODING IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BORDER... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING INCREASING OVER COASTAL AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTHSHORE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 30 SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OVER-TOPPING CONTINUES ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON PARISHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH WAS ALSO REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. TIDES ARE 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND NEAR 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN TERREBONNE PARISH. AS RITA MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...A SHARP INCREASE IN TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. IN ADDITION...TIDES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AS SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NEW ORLEANS. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. SOME FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIMITED PUMPING CAPACITY HAS OCCURRED IN THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...BUT NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 19.7N 115.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KFWD 240635 AAA *** HLSFWD TXZ135-146>148-161-162-175-241600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 130 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ANDERSON...FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON AND LEON COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON...FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT MIDNIGHT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST IN CASE. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ACROSS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS MOBILE HOMES...SHEDS...OPEN CAR PORTS...AND OUT-BUILDINGS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS...EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF RITA TRACKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE RITA. $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 30.4N 138.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.1N 139.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.7N 141.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 36.8N 147.2E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 39.2N 157.5E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 30.4N 138.0E GOOD MOVE N 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 33.7N 141.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 260600UTC 36.8N 147.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 270600UTC 39.2N 157.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 19.7N 115.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 111.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.6N 107.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.0N 103.0E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 30.3N 138.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 33.4N 140.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 37.4N 145.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 40.0N 156.0E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTNT33 KNHC 240656 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS SPREAD ONSHORE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA ONTO THE COAST NEAR SABINE PASS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AFTER LANDFALL...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 78 MPH WITH A GUST TO 101 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 93.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240707 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 26B NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MAYOR RITA ENTRARA A TIERRA PRONTO...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO SE HA MOVIDO SOBRE LA COSTA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN ESTAR COMPLETADAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM CDT...0700Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.7 OESTE O COMO A 10 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DEL SABINE PASS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE TEXAS Y LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE RITA SOBRE LA COSTA CERCA DE SABINE PASSS DURANTE LA PROXIMA HORA O DOS. LUEGO DE HACER SU ENTRADA A TIERRA...SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE MS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. REPORTES RECIBIDOS DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACAN LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 120 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN PELIGROSO FUERTE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN LA INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DESPUES DE QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 78 MPH EN LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA DE SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS CON UNA RAFAGA DE 101 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 937 MILIBARAS...27.67 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA DISMINUYA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS Y EL OESTE DE LOUISIANA. PUDIERAN OCURRIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS LOCALIZADAS. CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON TOTALES MAYORES DE LLUVIA SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES ESTA NOCHE...EL SABADO...Y EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE ARKANSAS Y MISSISSIPPI. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM CDT...29.6 NORTE...93.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...937 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTJP22 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 975 HPA AT 19.7N 114.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 19.3N 111.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 19.3N 108.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 19.9N 103.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 19.7N 114.8E FAIR MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 19.3N 111.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 260600UTC 19.3N 108.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 270600UTC 19.9N 103.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUA LLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 240716 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTUS84 KHGX 240729 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-241200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 228 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL AT THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER... ...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY...AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BRAZORIA...HARRIS... HOUSTON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... FORT BEND...GRIMES...JACKSON...MADISON...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. FLOOD WATCH FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...HOUSTON... LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 2 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ON THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER...OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF GALVESTON. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MOVE INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RECEDING IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA AS THE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN THE BAY SIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA...COUPLED WITH A 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 2 AM...WATER LEVELS WILL BE 6 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. FURTHER WEST ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE NORTH FACING BAY SHORES...WATERS LEVELS SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...COUPLED WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 430 AM. THIS FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE GULF WATERS HAVE ALREADY DRASTICALLY RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS PUSHING WATER FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF GILCHRIST. ...WIND IMPACTS... DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF HURRICANE RITA...WIND IMPACTS WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY OVER PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS NORTHWARD TO AROUND INTERSTATE 10 FROM HOUSTON EASTWARD. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND GENERALLY AFFECT ALL AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN NOW AND 6 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD LAST 2 TO 4 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY LATE MORNING SATURDAY (BETWEEN 8 AM AND NOON). WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND STATE HIGHWAY 288...MUCH LOWER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 73 91 LIBERTY 68 85 GALVESTON 66 82 POLK 59 74 HARRIS 55 69 SAN JACINTO 54 68 TRINITY 50 62 MONTGOMERY 49 61 BRAZORIA 50 62 HOUSTON 42 52 WALKER 43 52 MATAGORDA 40 50 ...TORNADOES... CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER THIS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA...TOWARDS THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER AND OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...RAINFALL... RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL IMPACT POLK...LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...GENERALLY ENCOMPASSING THOSE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER POLK...LIBERTY...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THESE AREAS. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 AM CDT. $$ ** WTKO20 RKSL 240600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 240600UTC 30.4N 138.0E MOVEMENT NNE 7KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 250600UTC 33.9N 141.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT 48HR POSITION 260600UTC 37.1N 147.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 270600UTC 39.9N 157.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240700 UTC 00HR 19.7N 114.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT53 KNHC 240756 *** TCEAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST...OR JUST NORTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE CENTER OF RITA MADE LANDFALL AT 230 AM CDT ON THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND JOHNSON'S BAYOU. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 240745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPA23 PHFO 240830 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z SAT SEP 24 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 152.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 152.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 152.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 154.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 155.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.4N 157.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.7N 159.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.1N 163.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 152.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 240830 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z SAT SEP 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 138.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 138.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 138.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.0N 140.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 140.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.0N 141.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 143.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 138.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 240831 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0356Z SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY...MID- LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A UNIFORMED SWATH OF 40 KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH AT 40 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK MID- LAYER STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE GFS AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID- LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF KENNETH. THE GFDL...HOWEVER..CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ABRUPT TURN NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 16.0N 138.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 138.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 16.0N 140.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 140.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 16.0N 141.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 17.0N 142.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 18.0N 143.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 240831 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0900Z SAT SEP 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 316 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 110.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.9N 111.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 240831 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE FIXES PLACED THE CENTER OF NORMA WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...A MICROWAVE PASS AT 03Z AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z SHOW THAT IN FACT THE CENTER IS FARTHER EAST AND JUST OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION. THE QUIKSCAT PASS HAD A 40 KT VECTOR SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME THE SHEAR HAS REASSERTED ITSELF AND IS BLOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT MAY BE A LITTLE BIT HIGH. THE SHIPS/GFS SHEAR DIAGNOSIS CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND THIS INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THAN TO THE GFDL...WHICH BRINGS NORMA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD NORMA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MOTION REMAINS 330/3. STEERING CURRENTS ARE PRESENTLY ILL-DEFINED...BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES NORTHWARD. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORMA IS EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND LET HIGH PRESSURE BUILD WESTWARD. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE UKMET...WHICH HAS THE FASTEST INITIAL MOTION...GETS NORMA CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER TROUGH AND TAKES IT NORTHWARD. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THE WESTERN SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EARLY BUT FASTER TO THE WEST LATE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.9N 110.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.3N 110.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.9N 111.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 18.3N 112.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 114.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 240833 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.3N 94.5W 40 X X X 40 PORT ARTHUR TX 99 X X X 99 33.0N 94.0W 27 2 X 1 30 GALVESTON TX 99 X X X 99 33.5N 93.5W 18 3 2 2 25 FREEPORT TX 17 X 1 X 18 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 1 3 4 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 3 4 MOBILE AL X 1 2 5 8 GULF 28N 89W X X 2 3 5 GULFPORT MS X 2 4 4 10 GULF 28N 91W X 2 2 3 7 BURAS LA X 2 4 4 10 GULF 28N 93W X 2 2 3 7 NEW ORLEANS LA 1 4 4 4 13 GULF 28N 95W X 1 X 3 4 NEW IBERIA LA 59 X X X 59 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN C FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON D FROM 1AM MON TO 1AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 240833 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z SAT SEP 24 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 93.9W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 275SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 93.9W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 93.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.9N 94.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.3N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 93.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 240837 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA MOVES ONSHORE NEAR SABINE PASS AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...CURRENTLY NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST OR NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN INSTRUMENTED TOWER IN PORT ARTHUR RUN BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 91 MPH WITH A GUST TO 116 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 951.3 MB...28.09 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. SINCE RITA IS MOVINGLY SLOWLY AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...29.9 N... 93.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240800 UTC 00HR 19.7N 114.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPA33 PHFO 240840 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.6 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 360 MILES...EAST- NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...23.1 N...152.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240843 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 26B NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN MAYOR RITA ENTRARA A TIERRA PRONTO...LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO SE HA MOVIDO SOBRE LA COSTA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN ESTAR COMPLETADAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM CDT...0700Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.7 OESTE O COMO A 10 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DEL SABINE PASS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE TEXAS Y LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE RITA SOBRE LA COSTA CERCA DE SABINE PASSS DURANTE LA PROXIMA HORA O DOS. LUEGO DE HACER SU ENTRADA A TIERRA...SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE MS TARDE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. REPORTES RECIBIDOS DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACAN LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 120 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN PELIGROSO FUERTE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN LA INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DESPUES DE QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 78 MPH EN LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA DE SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS CON UNA RAFAGA DE 101 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 937 MILIBARAS...27.67 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA DISMINUYA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS Y EL OESTE DE LOUISIANA. PUDIERAN OCURRIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS LOCALIZADAS. CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON TOTALES MAYORES DE LLUVIA SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES ESTA NOCHE...EL SABADO...Y EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE ARKANSAS Y MISSISSIPPI. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM CDT...29.6 NORTE...93.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...937 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTPA43 PHFO 240845 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA REMAINS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST OR TOWARDS 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES VARIED FROM LESS THAN 1.0 TO 2.0. A SHIP /WTST/ EAST OF JOVA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KT AT 0600Z. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JOVA AS A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. AT THE MOMENT...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF NO DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BEND JOVA MORE TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA...AND THE REMNANT LOW AFTER 36 HOURS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE AT ABOUT 9 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. FORECASTER HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 23.1N 152.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 23.5N 154.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 24.0N 155.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.4N 157.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/0600Z 24.7N 159.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0600Z 25.1N 163.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 240851 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0900Z SAT SEP 24 2005 ...CORRECTED PRESENT MOVEMENT... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 110.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.9N 111.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 114.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 114.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.3N 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.2N 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.3N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.5N 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.0N 103.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 114.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 240855 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADARS INDICATE THAT RITA MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS ABOUT 0730Z WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR 105 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...THE CONVECTION IN THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL HAS BECOME QUITE INTENSE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. OVERALLL...RITA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 18-24 HR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE 120 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION... WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS LONG AFTER THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR WITH SOME DECELERATION...THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS CALLING FOR A LOOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEST OF RITA...SOME CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION...AND THE GFS CALLING FOR A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 29.9N 93.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 30.9N 94.3W 70 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0600Z 32.3N 94.5W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 29/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 240856 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC039-071-167-245-321-361-GMZ335-350-355-370- 375-450-455-470-475-241500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 SARGENT-TX 28.77N 95.60W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-241500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ TXC007-057-239-321-391-409-GMZ235-255-275-330-350-370-241500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 PORT-ARANSAS-TX 27.83N 97.07W SARGENT-TX 28.77N 95.60W $$ ATTN...WFO...CRP...LIX...LCH...HGX... ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240902 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 27 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SOBRE LA COSTA CERCA DE SABINE PASS COMO PELIGROSO HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES...ACTUALMENTE CERCA DE PORT ARTHUR TEXAS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN ESTAR COMPLETADAS. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO AL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.9 OESTE O CERCA DE PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE Y UNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA EL CENTRO DE RITA TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS HOY. REPORTES RECIBIDOS DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACAN LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 120 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN PELIGROSO FUERTE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO SE ADENTRE MAS SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. UNA TORRE EQUIPADA CON INTRUMENTOS DE MEDICION EN PORT ARTHUR ADMINISTRADA POR EL PROGRAMA DE RASTREO COSTERO DE FLORIDA ACABA DE REPORTAR VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 91 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 116 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MEDIDO POR UN AVION CAZA HURACAN ES DE 937 MILIBARAS...27.67 PULGADAS. LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA PRESION DE 951.3 MB...28.09 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. DEBIDO A QUE RITA SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE VA A DISMINUIR SU MARCHA AUN MAS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS...SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS Y EL OESTE DE LOUISIANA. PUDIERAN OCURRIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS LOCALIZADAS. CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON TOTALES MAYORES DE LLUVIA SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY Y ESTA NOCHE...SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE ARKANSAS Y MISSISSIPPI. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...29.9 NORTE...93.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...937 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS84 KFWD 240914 AAA *** HLSFWD TXZ135-146>148-161-162-175-241800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA MOVES ONSHORE NEAR SABINE PASS AS A CATEGORY THREE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON AND LEON COUNTIES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON... HOPKINS...FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO...VAN ZANDT...RAINS...AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST OR NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST IN CASE. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS MOBILE HOMES...SHEDS...OPEN CAR PORTS...AND OUT-BUILDINGS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS...EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF RITA TRACKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE RITA. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240940ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 050 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 152.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 152.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 23.5N 154.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 24.0N 155.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 24.4N 157.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 24.7N 159.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 25.1N 163.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240900 UTC 00HR 19.7N 114.4E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240940ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 039 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 138.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 138.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.0N 138.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0N 140.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.0N 140.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.0N 141.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 18.0N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KCRP 240945 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ234-244>247-241300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 445 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT OCONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE...REMAIN CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 13 TO 17 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 17 FEET DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS IN CALHOUN COUNTY FROM PORT LAVACA TO MAGNOLIA TO INDIANOLA TO PORT OCONNOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT OCONNOR TO BAFFIN BAY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI CONCERNING HURRICANE RITA. $$ DUNN ** WTJP31 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 30.8N 138.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 32.4N 139.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 33.9N 141.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 30.8N 138.3E GOOD MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 33.9N 141.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 260600UTC 36.8N 147.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 270600UTC 39.2N 157.5E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS84 KLCH 240948 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-241500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 448 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA MOVING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR VERNON...RAPIDES...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST LANDRY...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER ST MARTIN...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...ST MARY...AND LOWER ST MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST OR VERY NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY NOW THAT RITA HAS MOVED ASHORE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN INSTRUMENTED TOWER IN PORT ARTHUR RUN BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 91 MPH WITH A GUST TO 116 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WAS 937 MB OR 27.67 INCHES. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK IN JEFFERSON COUNTY RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 951.3 MILLIBARS OR 28.09 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET LIKELY ONGOING IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES COULD SEE UP TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND BAYOUS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET IS LIKELY ONGOING. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY...WHERE SURGE WAS BATTERING THE TOWN EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET IS LIKELY ONGOING. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: SATURDAY LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: SATURDAY LOW/3:35 PM/0.2 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS SPREADING SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR GREATER...WITH GUSTS OVER 100 MPH...NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. CALCASIEU...CAMERON...AND BEAUREGARD PARISHES...WINDS OF 80 TO 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...AND TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS THIS MORNING. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 60 TO 75 MPH THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WILL LAST ANOTHER 2 TO 4 HOURS. VERNON AND ALLEN PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 60 TO 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDES...AVOYLLES...EVANGELINE...AND ST. LANDRY PARISHES...WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. IBERIA...ST. MARY...AND LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH SUNRISE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE WIDESPREAD. POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY LENGTHY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL FAIL. THE VINTON POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTS WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ACROSS THE CITY...INCLUDING THEIR OWN BUILDING WHERE PART OF THE ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAVE EXCEEDED 6 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING DUE TO THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 241000 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056-058>070-241330- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA ONSHORE OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...RAINBANDS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER AREA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THROUGH MID MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS RITA MOVES INLAND. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STORM SURGE FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH TODAY. PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OVER-TOPPING CONTINUES ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. EXTENSIVE STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH...AND LOWER JEFFERSON PARISH HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND MEDIA. STORM SURGE FLOODING IS LIKELY ONGOING IN MANY LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TIDES ARE 4 TO 6 ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF COASTAL LOUISIANA AND LOCALLY UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN TERREBONNE PARISH. TIDE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PEAK THIS MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS BRISK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. TIDES WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DURING THE MORNING DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS...RESULTING IN STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING AREAS. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NEW ORLEANS. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A PERSISTENT RAINBAND FROM NORTH OF BATON ROUGE TO WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTAIN TO THE COAST NEAR PORT FOURCHON HAS PRODUCED RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. SOME FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIMITED PUMPING CAPACITY HAS OCCURRED IN THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...BUT NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPN33 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240935ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 110.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 110.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.3N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.9N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 17.5N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.3N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0518 DAMREY (0518) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 19.3N 114.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 19.0N 111.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0518 DAMREY (0518) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 19.3N 114.3E FAIR MOVE SW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 19.0N 111.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 260600UTC 19.3N 108.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 270600UTC 19.9N 103.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240900 UTC 00HR 19.7N 114.4E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 110.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.8N 105.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 21.0N 102.0E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 241000 UTC 00HR 19.6N 114.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTUS84 KHGX 241051 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-241300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 503 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA MOVING INLAND IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY...AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BRAZORIA...HARRIS... HOUSTON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... FORT BEND...GRIMES...JACKSON...MADISON...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. FLOOD WATCH FOR BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...HOUSTON... LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 6 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF ORANGE OR NEAR BUNA IN SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MOVE INLAND TO NEAR LUFKIN AND NACOGDOCHES THIS AFTEROON. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION...THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL RITA MOVES FARTHER INLAND. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RECEDING IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN THE BAY SIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND AND ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE NORTH FACING BAY SHORES...WATERS LEVELS SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THIS FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF LIBERTY... CHAMBERS...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY OVER PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY...THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA FROM GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO POLK COUNTY. ALL AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...AND POLK COUNTIES BETWEEN NOW AND 9 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD LAST 2 TO 4 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND STATE HIGHWAY 288...MUCH LOWER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. ...TORNADOES... CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER THIS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA...TOWARDS THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER AND OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...RAINFALL... RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL IMPACT POLK...LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...GENERALLY ENCOMPASSING THOSE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER POLK...LIBERTY...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THESE AREAS. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM CDT. $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 241045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 HECTOPASCALS. AT 240900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 140 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (103.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 HECTOPASCALS. AT 240900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 140 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (103.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 241100 UTC 00HR 19.6N 114.1E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 241147 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST....MIDWAY BETWEEN JASPER AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. A HAM RADIO REPORT INDICATES THAT JASPER TEXAS MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH RECENTLY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WERE PROBABLY EXPERIENCED TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL. THE COASTAL STORM FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. SINCE RITA IS MOVINGLY SLOWLY AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...30.4 N... 94.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 241154 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...CORRECTION TO WARNINGS WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS... ...RITA MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST....MIDWAY BETWEEN JASPER AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. A HAM RADIO REPORT INDICATES THAT JASPER TEXAS MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH RECENTLY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WERE PROBABLY EXPERIENCED TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL. THE COASTAL STORM FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. SINCE RITA IS MOVINGLY SLOWLY AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...30.4 N... 94.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$