** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KCRP 240023 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ234-244>247-240330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 723 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES ARANSAS... CALHOUN...REFUGIO...AND EXTREME EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VICTORIA COUNTY. BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE...REMAIN CLOSED. ALL OTHER MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO 20 TO 22 FEET THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH SWELLS FROM RITA WILL PUSH TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE BAYS AND UP TO AROUND 4 FEET ALONG THE GULF SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. HOWEVER...HIGHER TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ACROSS VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...RAINFALL... THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUTER RAINBANDS TO AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ TE ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240026 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6 PM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTENDIENDOSE SOBRE EL SUROESTE DE LUISIANA Y EL SURESTE DE TEXAS A MEDIDA QUE EL HURACAN RITA DE ACERCA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 6 PM CDT...2300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 92.9 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE SABINE A LOLARGODE LA COSTA EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE TEXAS Y LUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA TOCARA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS DEL NORTE DE TEXAS CERCA DEL AMANECER DEL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SON POSIBLES ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA...PERO AUN SE ESPERA QUE RITA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS. SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDAN HASTA 100 MILLAS SOBRE TIERRA CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE RITA. UNA BOYA DE LA NOAA EN CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA...EN LA COSTA CERCA DE CAMERON UISIANA...REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 49 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 69 MPH. LOS VIENTOS SOTENIDOS DE 37 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 54 MPH FUERON REPORTADOS RECIENTEMENTE EN GALVESTON TEXAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 931 MILIBARAS...27.49 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 20 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE DE TEXAS...EL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 PM CDT...28.5 NORTE...92.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...125 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...931 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 19.9N 115.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 29.5N 138.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 32.6N 139.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 36.3N 143.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 39.7N 154.0E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 19.9N 115.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 19.9N 111.9E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 19.8N 108.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.0N 104.0E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 29.7N 137.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 31.3N 138.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.8N 140.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 35.3N 144.8E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 38.9N 153.6E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 29.7N 137.8E GOOD MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 32.8N 140.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 260000UTC 35.3N 144.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 270000UTC 38.9N 153.6E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT33 KNHC 240100 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KCRP 240109 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ234-244>247-240330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 802 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES ARANSAS... CALHOUN...REFUGIO...AND EXTREME EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VICTORIA COUNTY. BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE...REMAIN CLOSED. ALL OTHER MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO 20 TO 22 FEET THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH SWELLS FROM RITA WILL PUSH TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE BAYS AND UP TO AROUND 4 FEET ALONG THE GULF SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. HOWEVER...HIGHER TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ACROSS VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...RAINFALL... THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUTER RAINBANDS TO AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ TE ** WTJP22 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 980 HPA AT 19.9N 115.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 20.4N 111.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 20.3N 106.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 20.6N 102.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 19.9N 115.2E FAIR MOVE WSW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 160NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 20.4N 111.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 260000UTC 20.3N 106.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 270000UTC 20.6N 102.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240111 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25B NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...CONDICIONES DETERIORANTES EN EL SUROETE DE LUISIANA Y EL SURESTE DE TEXAS A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA EL PELIGROSO HURACAN RITA ... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN ESTAR COMPLETADAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM CDT...0100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.0 OESTE O COMO A 85 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE SABINE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE TEXAS Y LUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA TOCARA TIERRA A LO LARGO DE LUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS DEL NORTE DE TEXAS CERCA DEL AMANECER DEL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 120 MPH...195 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN FUERTE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SON POSIBLES ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA...PERO AUN SE ESPERA QUE RITA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS. SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDAN HASTA 100 MILLAS SOBRE TIERRA CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE RITA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 931 MILIBARAS...27.49 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 20 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO EN LA MANANA SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE DE TEXAS...EL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM CDT...28.7 NORTE...93.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...931 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTUS84 KHGX 240113 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-240315- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 812 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 8 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LINE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURGE MODELS INDICATE OBSERVED LEVELS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES AND 3 TO 4 FEET IN GALVESTON BAY. AFTER 5 AM...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND AROUND 3 FEET ACROSS THE BAYSIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL TAKE 12 PLUS HOURS TO RECEDE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1113 PM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 5.5 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.5 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.0 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT -2.2 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 6.3 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT -2.0 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 POLK 70 85 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 60 75 WHARTON 40 55 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 55 AUSTIN 50 65 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 65 WASHINGTON 45 60 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1000 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 12 HOURS FROM 240000 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NOR THEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 240000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 240000UTC 20.0N 115.2E MOVEMENT WSW 8KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 250000UTC 20.1N 111.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 260000UTC 20.5N 106.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 270000UTC 21.4N 100.9E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS84 KLCH 240132 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-240400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 830 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS...OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. RITA IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ORANGE TEXAS AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL BE INLAND...HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:35 PM/0.2 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...A WIND GUST TO 66 MPH WAS RECENTLY RECORDED AT THE NOAA TIDE STATION AT SABINE PASS AND 70 MPH AT SEA RIM STATE PARK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 75 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 75 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING NEAR 100 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS RECENTLY RECORDED AT THE NOAA TIDE STATION AT CAMERON AND 71 MPH AT THE LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 100 MPH BEFORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS OVER 50 MPH WILL INCREASE TO GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WIND GUSTS AROUND` 40 MPH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 MPH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1100 PM CDT. $$ RUA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240100 UTC 00HR 19.9N 115.3E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS84 KLIX 240157 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056-058>070-240415- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 900 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...OVER TOPPING ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEES CONTINUES WITH FLOODING IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING INCREASING OVER COASTAL AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTHSHORE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS...OR 210 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OVER-TOPPING CONTINUES ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON PARISHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH WAS ALSO REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. TIDES ARE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING..AND NEAR 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN TERREBONNE PARISH. AS RITA MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...A SHARP INCREASES IN TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING TERREBONNE... LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. IN ADDITION...TIDES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AS SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NEW ORLEANS. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. SOME FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIMITED PUMPING CAPACITY HAS OCCURRED IN THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 PM CDT. $$ ** WTNT53 KNHC 240200 *** TCEAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 9 PM CDT...0200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 240145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPA23 PHFO 240231 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0300Z SAT SEP 24 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 151.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 151.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 151.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.9N 152.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.0N 154.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 155.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.7N 157.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 161.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 151.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 240233 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.3 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILO AND ABOUT 440 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...23.2 N...151.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 240238 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST FRI SEP 23 2005 JOVA IS A LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES VARY FROM 1.0 TO 2.0. TO STAY WITHIN DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 2.0 OR 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/8 KT. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE HIGH TO THE WEST...ALL THE WHILE KEEPING JOVA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR JOVA TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A SMALL TURN TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS AS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR JOVA TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND IS CLOSEST TO UKMET AND NOGAPS. THE SHIP MODEL HAS JOVA DISSIPATED IN 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A BIT PREMATURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR JOVA TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 23.2N 151.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 23.9N 152.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.0N 154.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 155.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.7N 157.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 27/0000Z 27.0N 161.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 115.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 115.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.6N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.4N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.3N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.2N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.6N 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 114.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 29.6N 137.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.6N 137.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 31.1N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.7N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.5N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 36.5N 145.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 41.3N 156.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 30.0N 137.9E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240200 UTC 00HR 19.9N 115.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT22 KNHC 240242 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z SAT SEP 24 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 64.0W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 64.0W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 64.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 240242 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PHILIPPE REMAINS...AT BEST...A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER NON-TROPICAL LOW. AS IT IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 240243 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...PHILIPPE DISSIPATES... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A BROADER NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE WAS DISSIPATING NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER AS THEY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EVEN THOUGH PHILIPPE IS DISSIPATING...THE LARGER LOW THAT SURROUNDS PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 240250 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 93.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 240250 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z SAT SEP 24 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 93.2W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 275SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 93.2W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.4N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.8N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 93.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 240251 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.4N 94.5W 48 X X X 48 GALVESTON TX 64 X X X 64 32.8N 94.5W 25 3 1 X 29 FREEPORT TX 37 X X X 37 33.5N 94.5W 17 8 1 1 27 PORT O CONNOR TX 5 1 1 2 9 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 3 4 MOBILE AL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 91W 1 1 X 3 5 BURAS LA X 1 X 4 5 GULF 28N 93W 99 X X X 99 NEW ORLEANS LA 1 2 1 4 8 GULF 28N 95W 8 1 X 2 11 NEW IBERIA LA 46 X X X 46 GULF 27N 96W X X 1 3 4 PORT ARTHUR TX 86 X X X 86 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN C FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN D FROM 7PM SUN TO 7PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 240253 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z SAT SEP 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.2W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 35SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.2W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 138.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 75SE 75SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 139.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 139.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 141.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 138.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 240255 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS NORMA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE GFDL GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO GUIDANCE MODELS. BY 96 HOURS NORMA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. NORMA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE TRACK...330/3...IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. NORMA IS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MOVES NORMA SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE MOTION OF NORMA WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONNECTED THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS WITH THE CONVECTION...WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE MID-LEVEL STEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND TURN NORMA MORE TO THE WEST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.6N 110.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.5N 110.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 111.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 112.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 240255 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0300Z SAT SEP 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 110.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 110.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 110.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.2N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 240255 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW PULSES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FLARE NEAR THE CENTER OF KENNETH. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF WEAKENING. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB ARE 3.0...45 KTS...WHILE TAFB ESTIMATES ARE 3.5...55 KTS. RECENT NOAA POES OVERPASSES OF KENNETH YIELDED CSU-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 KTS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF KENNETH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KENNETH WILL REMAIN IN A REGION OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WILL WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH AT 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/4. KENNETH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A RIDGE IN A REGIME OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE SYSTEM EITHER MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF 140W FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING DUE NORTH OR IT SLOWLY MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...THE UKMET...AND NOGAPS. IN THE LATER PERIOD...THE FORECAST TRACK HINTS TOWARD A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.9N 138.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 138.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.0N 139.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.0N 139.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 16.1N 141.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 240257 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC039-071-167-245-321-361-GMZ335-350-355-370- 375-450-455-470-475-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 SARGENT-TX 28.77N 95.60W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ TXC007-057-239-391-409-GMZ235-255-275-330-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-ARANSAS-TX 27.83N 97.07W SARGENT-TX 28.77N 95.60W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-240900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ ATTN...WFO...CRP...LIX...LCH...HGX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 240258 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE SE DISIPA... IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LA CIRCULACION DE PHILIPPE ESTA SIENDO ABSORBIDA DENTRO DE UN AREA AMPLIA NO TROIPCAL DE BAJA PRESION. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL PHILIPPE SE ESTABA DISIPANDO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.0 OESTE O COMO A 235 MILLAS...375 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUR SURESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE LOS REMANENTES PERMANEZCAN A MEDIDA QUE SE DISIPA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AUNQUE PHILIPPE SE ESTA DISIPANDO...LA BAJA PRESION QUE LO RODEA CONTINUARA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...29.0 NORTE...64.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL SUR SURESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARAS. ESTA SERA LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANESSOBRE ESTE SISTEMA. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTNT43 KNHC 240259 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD STILL BEEN 120-125 KT. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE COASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING. VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT. RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK IN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY. RITA IS APPROACHING THE COAST ALONG A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY HEADING OF 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS... JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. ASIDE FROM THE COMMONLY OBSERVED WOBBLES... THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THEN... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OF A STALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... AS RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WELL INLAND AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER LANDFALL. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 29.1N 93.2W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 85 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.4N 94.5W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.8N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 29/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTUS84 KCRP 240312 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ234-244>247-240530- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1008 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES ARANSAS... CALHOUN...REFUGIO...AND EXTREME EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VICTORIA COUNTY. BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE...REMAIN CLOSED. ALL OTHER MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO 20 TO 22 FEET TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING TWO TO THREE FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH SWELLS FROM RITA WILL PUSH TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE BAYS WITH HIGHER TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL POSSIBLE ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLAND AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN THE BAYS AT 4 FEET...WATER IS ABOUT 1/4 MILE INLAND IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF ROCKPORT. LOW SPOTS ON HIGHWAY 35 BETWEEN ARANSAS PASS AND ROCKPORT BECOME FLOODED. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FARTHER SOUTH FROM PORT ARANSAS TO BAFFIN BAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ACROSS VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...RAINFALL... THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUTER RAINBANDS TO AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ TE ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240316 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 26 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL OJO DEL HURACAN MAYOR RITA SOLO A POCAS HORAS DE TOCAR TIERRA CERCA DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS/LUISIANA... ...LOS VIENTOS FUERTES Y LLUVIAS FUERTES BATIENDO EL SUR DE LUISIANAY EL SURESTE DE TEXAS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN ESTAR COMPLETADAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.2 OESTE O COMO A 55 MILLAS...90 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DEL PASAJE SABINE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE TEXAS Y LUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 120 MPH...195 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN PELIGROSO FUERTE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN LA INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DESPUES DE QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 74 MPH EN EL LAGO CHARLES EN LUISIANA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 931 MILIBARAS...27.49 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA DISMINUYA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS Y EL OESTE DE LOUISIANA. PUDIERAN OCURRIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS LOCALIZADAS. CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON TOTALES MAYORES DE LLUVIA SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES ESTA NOCHE...EL SABADO...Y EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE ARKANSASY MISSISSIPPI. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...29.1 NORTE...93.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...931 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 12 AM CDT Y LAS 2 AM CDT SEGUIDAS POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240300 UTC 00HR 19.9N 115.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTTH20 VTBB 240000 *** NAME STS DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 20.0 N 115.7 E FAIR MOVE W 8KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 250NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 19.8N 111.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 8 KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 260000UTC 20.0N 107.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 8KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 055KT= ** WTUS84 KHGX 240331 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226- 227-235>238-240530- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1030 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT FOR MATAGORDA...JACKSON...WHARTON...AND COLORADO COUNTIES. ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA...JACKSON...WHARTON...AND COLORADO. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LINE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RECEDING IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA AS THE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN THE BAY SIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA...COUPLED WITH A 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 2 AM...WATER LEVELS WILL BE 6 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. FURTHER WEST ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE NORTH FACING BAY SHORES...WATERS LEVELS SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...COUPLED WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 430 AM. THIS FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE GULF WATERS HAVE ALREADY DRASTICALLY RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS PUSHING WATER FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF GILCHRIST. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEAVIER RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EYE WALL ROTATE IN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS...AROUND 75 MPH...SHOULD REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 4 TO 5 AM IN NORTHERN LIBERTY AND POLK COUNTIES. COASTAL CHAMBERS COUNTY AND EXTREME EASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE UP TO 6 HOURS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 POLK 70 85 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 50 60 HOUSTON 50 60 WALKER 50 60 WALLER 45 55 AUSTIN 45 55 MADISON 40 50 GRIMES 40 55 WASHINGTON 40 50 WHARTON 40 50 MATAGORDA 40 50 BRAZOS 40 50 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... A SLIGHT THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE COAST. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... RAINBANDS ARE ROTATING IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KFWD 240345 *** HLSFWD TXZ135-146>148-161-162-175-241600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1035 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ANDERSON...FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON AND LEON COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON...FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST IN CASE. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ACROSS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS MOBILE HOMES...SHEDS...OPEN CAR PORTS...AND OUT-BUILDINGS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS...EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF RITA TRACKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE RITA. $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 240300 *** WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 30.1N 137.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 31.6N 138.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 33.1N 140.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 30.1N 137.9E GOOD MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 33.1N 140.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 260000UTC 35.3N 144.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 270000UTC 38.9N 153.6E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT53 KNHC 240356 *** TCEAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 11 PM CDT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 240356 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-240530- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1045 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS...OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. RITA IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES COULD SEE UP TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND BAYOUS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:35 PM/0.2 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...A WIND GUST TO 75 MPH WAS RECENTLY RECORDED AT THE NOAA TIDE STATION AT SABINE PASS AND 87 MPH AT SEA RIM STATE PARK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 90 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER 100 MPH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 75 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING NEAR 100 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS RECENTLY RECORDED AT THE NOAA TIDE STATION AT CAMERON AND OVER 75 MPH AT THE LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 100 MPH BEFORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 60 TO 75 MPH. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN` 40 AND 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1230 AM CDT. $$ RUA ** WTUS84 KLIX 240403 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056-058>070-240630- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1100 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...OVER TOPPING ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEES CONTINUES WITH FLOODING IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BORDER... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING INCREASING OVER COASTAL AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTHSHORE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS...OR 195 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OVER-TOPPING CONTINUES ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON PARISHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH WAS ALSO REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. TIDES ARE 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING...AND NEAR 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN TERREBONNE PARISH. AS RITA MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...A SHARP INCREASE IN TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING TERREBONNE... LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. IN ADDITION...TIDES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AS SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NEW ORLEANS. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. SOME FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIMITED PUMPING CAPACITY HAS OCCURRED IN THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KFWD 240405 CCA *** HLSFWD TXZ135-146>148-161-162-175-241600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO ADD WARNING HEADLINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1035 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ANDERSON...FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON AND LEON COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON...FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST IN CASE. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ACROSS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS MOBILE HOMES...SHEDS...OPEN CAR PORTS...AND OUT-BUILDINGS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS...EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF RITA TRACKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE RITA. $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 240300 *** WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 980 HPA AT 19.9N 115.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 20.2N 110.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240335ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240340ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 049 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 22.9N 151.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 151.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.9N 152.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 25.0N 154.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 26.0N 155.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 26.7N 157.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 27.0N 161.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 19.9N 115.0E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 260NM SOUTH 160NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 20.2N 110.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 260000UTC 20.3N 106.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 270000UTC 20.6N 102.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN33 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240335ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.0N 110.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.5N 110.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.2N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.7N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.0N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/240340ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 038 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 138.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 138.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.0N 138.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.0N 139.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.0N 139.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.0N 140.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.1N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 17.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 240453 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL MIDNIGHT CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WOBBLING TOWARD LANDFALL NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH...WHILE AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 98 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 240445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (103.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (103.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTUS84 KHGX 240505 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226- 227-235>238-240700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND IS NEARING THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT FOR MATAGORDA...JACKSON...WHARTON...AND COLORADO COUNTIES. ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA...JACKSON...WHARTON...AND COLORADO. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 12 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER...OR 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LINE BETWEEN 3 AM TO 5 AM. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RECEDING IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA AS THE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN THE BAY SIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA...COUPLED WITH A 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 2 AM...WATER LEVELS WILL BE 6 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. FURTHER WEST ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE NORTH FACING BAY SHORES...WATERS LEVELS SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...COUPLED WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 430 AM. THIS FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE GULF WATERS HAVE ALREADY DRASTICALLY RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS PUSHING WATER FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF GILCHRIST. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEAVIER RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EYE WALL ROTATE IN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS...AROUND 75 MPH...SHOULD REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 4 TO 5 AM IN NORTHERN LIBERTY AND POLK COUNTIES. COASTAL CHAMBERS COUNTY AND EXTREME EASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE UP TO 6 HOURS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 POLK 70 85 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 50 60 HOUSTON 50 60 WALKER 50 60 WALLER 45 55 AUSTIN 45 55 MADISON 40 50 GRIMES 40 55 WASHINGTON 40 50 WHARTON 40 50 MATAGORDA 40 50 BRAZOS 40 50 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... A SLIGHT THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE COAST. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... RAINBANDS ARE ROTATING IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 AM CDT. $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240508 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 26A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL MEDIANOCHE CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL OJO DEL HURACAN MAYOR RITA OCILA HACIA TIERRA CERCA DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS/LUISIANA... ...LOS VIENTOS FUERTES Y LLUVIAS FUERTES BATIENDO EL SUR DE LUISIANAY EL SURESTE DE TEXAS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN ESTAR COMPLETADAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS MEDIANOCHE CDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.5 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DEL SABINE PASS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE TEXAS Y LOUISIANA . RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EL SABADO. REPORTES RECIBIDOS DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACAN INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 120 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN PELIGROSO FUERTE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN LA INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DESPUES DE QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 70 MPH EN LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA DE SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS CON UNA RAFAGA DE 83 MPH...MIENTRAS QUE OTRA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 83 MPH DE 98 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 934 MILIBARAS...27.58 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA DISMINUYA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS Y EL OESTE DE LOUISIANA. PUDIERAN OCURRIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS LOCALIZADAS. CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON TOTALES MAYORES DE LLUVIA SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES ESTA NOCHE...EL SABADO...Y EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE ARKANSAS Y MISSISSIPPI. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS MEDIANOCHE CDT...29.2 NORTE...93.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...934 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240508 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 26A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL MEDIANOCHE CDT SABADO 24 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL OJO DEL HURACAN MAYOR RITA OCILA HACIA TIERRA CERCA DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS/LUISIANA... ...LOS VIENTOS FUERTES Y LLUVIAS FUERTES BATIENDO EL SUR DE LUISIANAY EL SURESTE DE TEXAS... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN ESTAR COMPLETADAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS MEDIANOCHE CDT...0500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.5 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DEL SABINE PASS A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO EN LA FRONTERA ENTRE TEXAS Y LOUISIANA . RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EL SABADO. REPORTES RECIBIDOS DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACAN INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 120 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN PELIGROSO FUERTE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN LA INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DESPUES DE QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. RECIENTEMENTE SE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 70 MPH EN LA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA DE SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS CON UNA RAFAGA DE 83 MPH...MIENTRAS QUE OTRA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 83 MPH DE 98 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 934 MILIBARAS...27.58 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...LOCALMENTE HASTA 20 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE LAS BAHIAS Y EN LOS RIOS CERCANOS...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 4 A 6 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA DISMINUYA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS Y EL OESTE DE LOUISIANA. PUDIERAN OCURRIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS LOCALIZADAS. CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS CON TOTALES MAYORES DE LLUVIA SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES ESTA NOCHE...EL SABADO...Y EL SABADO EN LA NOCHE SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...EL SUR DE ARKANSAS Y MISSISSIPPI. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS MEDIANOCHE CDT...29.2 NORTE...93.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 11 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...934 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS84 KCRP 240508 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ234-244>247-241000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA NEAR LANDFALL... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES ARANSAS... CALHOUN...REFUGIO...AND EXTREME EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VICTORIA COUNTY. BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE...REMAIN CLOSED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 16 TO 20 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO 20 TO 22 FEET TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING TWO TO THREE FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT PORT OCONNOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH SWELLS FROM RITA WILL PUSH TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE BAYS WITH HIGHER TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL POSSIBLE ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLAND AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN THE BAYS AT 4 FEET...WATER IS ABOUT 1/4 MILE INLAND IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF ROCKPORT. LOW SPOTS ON HIGHWAY 35 BETWEEN ARANSAS PASS AND ROCKPORT BECOME FLOODED. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FARTHER SOUTH FROM PORT ARANSAS TO BAFFIN BAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ACROSS VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...RAINFALL... THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUTER RAINBANDS TO AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM. $$ DUNN ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(GLOBAL MODEL) ON STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 66 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTUS84 KLCH 240524 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-241000- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1220 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH...WHILE AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 98 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST EARLY TODAY. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES COULD SEE UP TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND BAYOUS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:35 PM/0.2 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 75 MPH THIS MORNING...GUSTING TO NEAR 100 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 100 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 60 TO 75 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN`40 AND 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 430 AM CDT. $$ MARCOTTE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240500 UTC 00HR 19.8N 115.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 240400 UTC 00HR 19.8N 115.2E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 240534 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.09.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 151.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2005 22.8N 151.0W WEAK 12UTC 24.09.2005 23.9N 152.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 26.1N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 27.4N 155.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 28.7N 156.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 29.3N 158.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 138.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.1N 138.1W MODERATE 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.0N 139.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 16.2N 140.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 16.3N 141.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 15.7N 143.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 14.7N 144.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.5N 145.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 13.7N 147.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 14.7N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2005 15.3N 151.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 16.2N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.0N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.0N 156.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 110.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2005 15.3N 110.3W MODERATE 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.1N 110.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 17.1N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 18.2N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 19.6N 114.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 21.2N 115.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 22.7N 115.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 23.6N 115.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 23.7N 115.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 14.7N 98.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.7N 98.1W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2005 15.2N 101.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.2N 103.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 15.3N 105.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2005 16.2N 106.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 17.2N 107.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2005 18.6N 108.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 64.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2005 29.1N 64.4W WEAK 12UTC 24.09.2005 28.7N 63.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 29.6N 61.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 93.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2005 28.8N 93.0W INTENSE 12UTC 24.09.2005 30.3N 94.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 31.9N 94.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 33.9N 92.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 34.0N 91.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 34.5N 91.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 33.2N 89.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 13.6N 31.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2005 13.6N 31.8W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2005 13.4N 34.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 14.2N 36.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 15.2N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 16.2N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 17.0N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240534 ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 72 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTUS84 KHGX 240554 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226- 227-235>238-241000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ... CORRECTION TO TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1205 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND IS NEARING THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT FOR MATAGORDA...JACKSON...WHARTON...AND COLORADO COUNTIES. ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF MATAGORDA...JACKSON...WHARTON...AND COLORADO. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 12 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER...OR 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LINE BETWEEN 3 AM TO 5 AM. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RECEDING IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA AS THE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN THE BAY SIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA...COUPLED WITH A 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 2 AM...WATER LEVELS WILL BE 6 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. FURTHER WEST ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE NORTH FACING BAY SHORES...WATERS LEVELS SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...COUPLED WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 430 AM. THIS FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE GULF WATERS HAVE ALREADY DRASTICALLY RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS PUSHING WATER FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF GILCHRIST. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEAVIER RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EYE WALL ROTATE IN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS...AROUND 75 MPH...SHOULD REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 4 TO 5 AM IN NORTHERN LIBERTY AND POLK COUNTIES. COASTAL CHAMBERS COUNTY AND EXTREME EASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY MAY EXPERIENCE UP TO 6 HOURS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 POLK 70 85 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 50 60 HOUSTON 50 60 WALKER 50 60 WALLER 45 55 AUSTIN 45 55 MADISON 40 50 GRIMES 40 55 WASHINGTON 40 50 WHARTON 40 50 MATAGORDA 40 50 BRAZOS 40 50 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... A SLIGHT THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE COAST. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... RAINBANDS ARE ROTATING IN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT53 KNHC 240556 *** TCEAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 AT 11 PM CDT...0400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. DURING THE PAST HOUR...AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 74 MPH WITH A GUST TO 112 MPH. FORECASTER BEVEN $$