** WTUS84 KCRP 231800 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ233-234-244>247-232300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... GOLIAD...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES ARANSAS... CALHOUN...REFUGIO...AND EXTREME EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INCLUDING ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD... REFUGIO...AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VICTORIA COUNTY. BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...FROM PORT ARANSAS TO THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE REMAIN CLOSED. ALL OTHER MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO 20 TO 22 FEET THIS EVENING OFFSHORE. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. THE WATER WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH LOW TIDE TODAY. THEN...DURING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE BAYS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE GULF SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. HOWEVER...HIGHER TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...THE HIGHEST WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL BEND REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES... WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ...RAINFALL... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEYOND 20 NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN POSSIBLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TOWARD THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ JR ** WTUS84 KLCH 231810 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-232200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ORANGE TEXAS AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA. THIS STORM SURGE COULD ALSO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL BE INLAND...HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 75 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 75 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING NEAR 100 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING GUSTS TO 60 TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 50 MPH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA THROUGH 6 PM DUE TO OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KHGX 231815 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-232315- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 115 PM CST FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON...OR 172 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIGH ISLAND. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF RITA WILL REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE MORE DANGEROUS TO BE STUCK IN YOUR CAR DURING TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL RISE TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. ALL WATER HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE PREDICATED ON THIS TRACK AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES AND MOVES JUST INLAND. THEN...DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PREVAILING...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1223 AM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.6 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 4.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.7 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.1 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT 3.6 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 5.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT 1.1 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NOW AFFECTING THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...BAYS AND BEACHES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND 4 PM AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE US 59 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN SEEING TROPICAL STORM WINDS AFTER 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THE RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 85 105 POLK 90 110 LIBERTY 85 105 GALVESTON 70 90 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 85 TRINITY 60 75 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 80 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 55 70 WHARTON 40 60 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 60 AUSTIN 50 60 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 60 WASHINGTON 45 55 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KHGX 231822 CCA *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-232300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...COR 4TH HEADLINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1219 PM CST FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON...OR 172 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIGH ISLAND. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF RITA WILL REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE MORE DANGEROUS TO BE STUCK IN YOUR CAR DURING TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL RISE TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. ALL WATER HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE PREDICATED ON THIS TRACK AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES AND MOVES JUST INLAND. THEN...DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PREVAILING...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1223 AM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.6 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 4.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.7 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.1 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT 3.6 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 5.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT 1.1 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... WIND GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NOW AFFECTING THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...BAYS AND BEACHES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND 4 PM AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE US 59 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN SEEING TROPICAL STORM WINDS AFTER 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THE RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 85 105 POLK 90 110 LIBERTY 85 105 GALVESTON 70 90 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 85 TRINITY 60 75 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 80 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 55 70 WHARTON 40 60 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 60 AUSTIN 50 60 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 60 WASHINGTON 45 55 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 20.4N 115.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 29.1N 138.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 30.6N 138.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.0N 139.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 34.4N 143.2E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 38.5N 150.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 20.4N 115.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 112.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.2N 108.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.4N 105.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 29.1N 138.3E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 32.0N 139.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 251800UTC 34.4N 143.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 261800UTC 38.5N 150.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 28.9N 138.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 32.2N 138.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 35.4N 142.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 38.3N 148.9E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTUS84 KLIX 231851 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056-058>070-232230- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 200 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...OVER TOPPING ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEES CONTINUES WITH FLOODING IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES DUE TO OVER-TOPPING ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OVER-TOPPING CONTINUES ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE BETWEEN CLAIBORNE AND FLORIDA AVENUE IN NEW ORLEANS WITH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFFECTED AREA. TIDES ARE 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS RITA MOVES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TODAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF OF 40 TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN RECENTLY REPORTED IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AS SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARISHES WHERE FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 PM CDT. $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 20.3N 116.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 20.6N 111.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 21.1N 107.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 21.1N 099.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 20.3N 116.1E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 180NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 20.6N 111.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 251800UTC 21.1N 107.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 261800UTC 21.1N 099.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231900 UTC 00HR 20.4N 115.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL ON STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 60 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 231945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 29.0N 138.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.0N 138.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 30.3N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.7N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.2N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.0N 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 39.5N 153.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 138.1E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 232028 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE CENTER CONTINUES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... BUT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEARING IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER NORMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/4. CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA. A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2-3 DAYS...AND ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT BETWEEN A NORTHERLY TRACK AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD COURSE. AS A COMPROMISE I HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST BACK TO THE LEFT SOMEWHAT...SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.3N 110.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.8N 110.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.3N 111.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.9N 111.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 232029 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 2100Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 150.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 150.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 150.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 151.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 153.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.3N 155.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 156.6W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.5N 159.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 28.8N 161.3W...REMNANT LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 150.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 232029 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 2100Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 111.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.9N 111.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 232030 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 2100Z FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 5 PM EDT ...2100Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 64.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 64.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 64.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 232030 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...PHILIPPE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... AT 5 PM EDT ...2100Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND DISSIPATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR SOONER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA TONIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.9 N... 64.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 232030 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.7 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILO AND ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...22.6 N...150.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 232030 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PHILIPPE IS A VERY SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS 250/15...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABSORPTION. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 29.9N 64.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 232039 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 2100Z FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 70NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 92.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 232039 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARKANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 232039 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 28.2N 92.6W 110 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W 105 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 232040 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.8N 94.5W 38 X X X 38 GALVESTON TX 48 X X X 48 32.5N 94.5W 16 14 X 1 31 FREEPORT TX 33 X X X 33 33.5N 94.5W 5 20 1 1 27 PORT O CONNOR TX 11 1 X 1 13 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 X X 3 4 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X 1 2 3 6 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA 1 1 1 3 6 GULF 28N 91W 57 X X X 57 NEW ORLEANS LA 3 4 1 3 11 GULF 28N 93W 99 X X X 99 NEW IBERIA LA 29 1 X X 30 GULF 28N 95W 33 X X X 33 PORT ARTHUR TX 53 X X X 53 GULF 27N 96W 2 1 X 1 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN C FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN D FROM 1PM SUN TO 1PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 232041 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE DEBILITANDOSE A DEPRESION... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA SOBRE SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES AVISOS Y ADVERTENCIAS...FAVOR DE CONTINUAR ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.3 OESTE O COMO A 170 MILLAS...270 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE EPSREA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE PHILIPPE SEA ABSORBIDA POR UN AREA GRANDE DE BAJA PRESION...Y QUE SE DISIPE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS O ANTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. ALGUNOS AGUACEROS LOCALMENTE FUERTES...ACOMPANADOS POR VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE BERMUDA ESTA NOCHE. LAS ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA EN BERMUDA DEBEN SER DE MENOS DE 3 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...29.9 NORTE...64.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE SUROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPZ41 KNHC 232042 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PULSATING MARGINAL DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. USING ROUGHLY THE MEAN OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND SINCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/4 KT. CURRENTLY A WEAK RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENNETH TO ERODE AS A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS...KEEPING STEERING CURRENTS WEAK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN ANTICYLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH COULD INDUCE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH. FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.9N 137.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 138.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.1N 138.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.1N 139.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 140.6W 50 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 142.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 232043 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 137.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 137.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 137.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 138.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 139.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 140.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 137.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 232046 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC039-071-167-245-321-361-GMZ335-350-355-370- 375-450-455-470-475-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 SARGENT-TX 28.77N 95.60W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ TXC239-GMZ330-240300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050923T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W SARGENT-TX 28.77N 95.60W $$ TXC007-057-391-409-GMZ235-255-275-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-ARANSAS-TX 27.83N 97.07W PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-240300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ ATTN...WFO...CRP...LIX...LCH...HGX... ** WTPA43 PHFO 232051 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST FRI SEP 23 2005 COME DAYLIGHT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT WAS EVIDENT THAT THE CONSTANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS HAD SHEARED THE TOP OFF OF JOVA...LEAVING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION WAS 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT FROM PHFO AND 55 KT FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DVORAK CONSTRAINTS IS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/8 KT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO NORTHWEST OF JOVA HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE HIGH TO THE WEST...ALL THE WHILE KEEPING JOVA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR JOVA TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF JOVA...AND IN SO DOING TURNING HER TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAIN AIDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS JOVA AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS. THIS IS DONE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT A SLOW SPIN DOWN. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 22.6N 150.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 23.6N 151.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 153.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 26.3N 155.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 27.5N 156.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 26/1800Z 28.5N 159.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED 96HR VT 27/1800Z 28.8N 161.3W ...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 232000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 232000 UTC 00HR 20.3N 115.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 232058 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...CORRECTED PORT ARANSAS IN WARNING SECTION... ...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 232058 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DEL PELIGROSO HURACAN RITA TOQUE TIERRA CERCA DEL AMANECER DEL SABADO... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL AVIOSD E HURACAN PARA EL SUR DE SARGENT TEXAS HA SIDO DEGRADADO A AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOIUSIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARKANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 92.6 OESTE O COMO A 155 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 140 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE PORT ARTUHR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...Y SE EPSERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA TOCARA TIERRA CERCA DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y EL NORTE DE TEXAS TEMPRANO EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SON POSIBLES ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA...PERO AUN SE ESPERA QUE RITA ALCANCE LA COSTA A MEDIDA QUE ENTRE A TIERRA COMO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDAN HASTA 100 MILLAS SOBRE TIERRA CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE RITA. UNA ESTACION ELEVADA EN LA ISLA MARSH EN LOUISIANA REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 59 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 78 MPH. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 930 MILIBARAS...27.46 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 20 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE DE TEXAS...EL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...28.2 NORTE...92.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...125 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...930 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 6 PM CDT Y A LAS 8 PM CDT SEGUIDAS POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTPN31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231952ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 115.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 115.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.1N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.8N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.7N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.5N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.7N 103.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 115.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A 231051Z QUIKSCAT PASS, THE ANALYZED AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE GREATER THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIF- ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA43 TJSJ 232102 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 25 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DEL PELIGROSO HURACAN RITA TOQUE TIERRA CERCA DEL AMANECER DEL SABADO... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL AVIOS DE HURACAN PARA EL SUR DE SARGENT TEXAS HA SIDO DEGRADADO A AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE SARGENT TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOIUSIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE SARGENT HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 92.6 OESTE O COMO A 155 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 140 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...Y SE EPSERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA TOCARA TIERRA CERCA DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y EL NORTE DE TEXAS TEMPRANO EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. SON POSIBLES ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA...PERO AUN SE ESPERA QUE RITA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. SE ESPERA QUE LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDAN HASTA 100 MILLAS SOBRE TIERRA CERCA DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE RITA. UNA ESTACION ELEVADA EN LA ISLA MARSH EN LOUISIANA REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 59 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 78 MPH. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 930 MILIBARAS...27.46 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 20 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE DE TEXAS...EL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...28.2 NORTE...92.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...125 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...930 MB. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 6 PM CDT Y A LAS 8 PM CDT SEGUIDAS POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTUS84 KCRP 232118 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ234-244>247-240200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 415 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES ARANSAS... CALHOUN...REFUGIO...AND EXTREME EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VICTORIA COUNTY. BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE...REMAIN CLOSED. ALL OTHER MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO 20 TO 22 FEET THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...INCLUDING PORT ARANSAS AND THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH SWELLS FROM RITA WILL PUSH TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE BAYS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE GULF SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. HOWEVER...HIGHER TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ACROSS VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...RAINFALL... THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUTER RAINBANDS TO AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER CALHOUN AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ JR ** WTPQ20 BABJ 232100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 232100 UTC 00HR 20.1N 115.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KHGX 232127 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-240100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 430 PM CST FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURGE MODELS INDICATE OBSERVED LEVELS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES AND 3 TO 4 FEET IN GALVESTON BAY. AFTER 5 AM...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND AROUND 3 FEET ACROSS THE BAYSIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL TAKE 12 PLUS HOURS TO RECEDE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1113 PM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 5.5 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.5 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.0 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT -2.2 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 6.3 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT -2.0 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 POLK 70 85 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 60 75 WHARTON 40 55 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 55 AUSTIN 50 65 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 65 WASHINGTON 45 60 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 630 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 232138 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-242330- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 430 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. RITA IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ORANGE TEXAS AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL BE INLAND...HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:35 PM/0.2 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WINDS OVER 40 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 75 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 75 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING NEAR 100 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...WINDS OVER 40 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS OVER 40 MPH WILL INCREASE TO GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 MPH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA THROUGH 6 PM DUE TO OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 630 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 29.3N 138.0E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 32.3N 139.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 251800UTC 34.4N 143.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 261800UTC 38.5N 150.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 232100 *** WARNING 232100. WARNING VALID 242100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 29.3N 138.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 30.8N 138.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 32.3N 139.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS84 KLIX 232149 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056-058>070-240000- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...OVER TOPPING ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEES CONTINUES WITH FLOODING IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...TIDES EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER COASTAL AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTHSHORE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES DUE TO OVER-TOPPING OF LEVEE ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR 220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OVER-TOPPING CONTINUES ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFFECTED AREA. TIDES ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. AS RITA MOVES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. ESPECIALLY SHARP INCREASES IN TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. IN ADDITION...TIDES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AS SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARISHES WHERE FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY UP TO 8 INCHES. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPN33 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/232130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/232135ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.8N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.3N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.9N 111.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 17.5N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 18.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT53 KNHC 232200 *** TCEAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KFWD 232203 *** HLSFWD TXZ135-146>148-161-162-175-240400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 500 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ANDERSON...FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON... FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON...FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH. RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. RITA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST IN CASE. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS MOBILE HOMES...SHEDS...OPEN CAR PORTS...AND OUT-BUILDINGS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS...EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF RITA TRACKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE RITA. $$ 92 ** WTNT23 KNHC 232207 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 2100Z FRI SEP 23 2005 ...CORRECTED 24 HOUR FORECAST OF 64 KT WIND RADII... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 92.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 232100 *** WARNING 232100. WARNING VALID 242100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 985 HPA AT 20.1N 115.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 20.6N 111.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 20.1N 115.9E FAIR MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 260NM SOUTH 160NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 20.6N 111.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 251800UTC 21.1N 107.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 261800UTC 21.1N 099.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/232135ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/232140ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 048 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 150.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 150.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.6N 151.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.0N 153.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.3N 155.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 27.5N 156.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 28.5N 159.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/232130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/232140ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 037 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 137.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 137.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.0N 138.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.1N 138.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.1N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.0N 140.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 232200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 232200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 115.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 232259 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. A NOAA BUOY AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA... ON THE COAST NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA... RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 54 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT GALVESTON TEXAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...28.5 N... 92.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 232245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 232100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (104.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 232245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 232100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (104.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTUS84 KHGX 232306 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-240500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 605 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LINE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURGE MODELS INDICATE OBSERVED LEVELS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES AND 3 TO 4 FEET IN GALVESTON BAY. AFTER 5 AM...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND AROUND 3 FEET ACROSS THE BAYSIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL TAKE 12 PLUS HOURS TO RECEDE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1113 PM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 5.5 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.5 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.0 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT -2.2 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 6.3 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT -2.0 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 POLK 70 85 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 60 75 WHARTON 40 55 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 55 AUSTIN 50 65 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 65 WASHINGTON 45 60 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 630 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KHGX 232308 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-240245- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 607 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LINE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURGE MODELS INDICATE OBSERVED LEVELS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES AND 3 TO 4 FEET IN GALVESTON BAY. AFTER 5 AM...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND AROUND 3 FEET ACROSS THE BAYSIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL TAKE 12 PLUS HOURS TO RECEDE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1113 PM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 5.5 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.5 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.0 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT -2.2 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 6.3 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT -2.0 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 POLK 70 85 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 60 75 WHARTON 40 55 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 55 AUSTIN 50 65 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 65 WASHINGTON 45 60 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 930 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KHGX 232308 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-240245- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 607 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF SARGENT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LINE LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY IN CARS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURGE MODELS INDICATE OBSERVED LEVELS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET ALONG THE BEACHES AND 3 TO 4 FEET IN GALVESTON BAY. AFTER 5 AM...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND AROUND 3 FEET ACROSS THE BAYSIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL TAKE 12 PLUS HOURS TO RECEDE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1113 PM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 5.5 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.5 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.0 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT -2.2 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 6.3 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT -2.0 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTLINE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS NOW BEING REPORTED JUST INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10) AROUND 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BY 6 AM. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THAT RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 95 110 POLK 70 85 LIBERTY 85 100 GALVESTON 85 100 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 80 TRINITY 65 80 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 75 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 60 75 WHARTON 40 55 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 55 AUSTIN 50 65 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 65 WASHINGTON 45 60 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 930 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 232324 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-240130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 615 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS...OR ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. RITA IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ORANGE TEXAS AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL BE INLAND...HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: TONIGHT HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT SATURDAY LOW/3:35 PM/0.2 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WINDS OVER 50 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 75 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 75 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING NEAR 100 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS RECENTLY RECORDED AT THE NOAA TIDE STATION AT CAMERON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WITH GUSTS OVER 100 MPH BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS OVER 50 MPH WILL INCREASE TO GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 MPH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 830 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 232300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 232300 UTC 00HR 20.0N 115.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KLIX 232356 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056-058>070-240230- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 655 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...OVER TOPPING ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEES CONTINUES WITH FLOODING IN ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...TIDES INCREASING OVER COASTAL AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTHSHORE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...LIVINGSTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR 210 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OVER-TOPPING CONTINUES ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON PARISHES. TIDES ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING. AS RITA MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...A SHARP INCREASES IN TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. IN ADDITION...TIDES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE HURRICANE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AS SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NEW ORLEANS. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. SOME FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIMITED PUMPING CAPACITY HAS OCCURRED IN THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NO CONFIRMED REPORTS OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA DURING THE NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 900 PM CDT. $$ ** WTNT53 KNHC 232357 *** TCEAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FORECASTER KNABB $$