** WTUS84 KBRO 231201 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-231500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 700 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL WILLACY AND KENEDY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND 360 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 927 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAD ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING HIGH TIDE ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BEACHES...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AT 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BRUSH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 AM CDT. $$ 65 ** WTSR20 WSSS 230600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KLIX 231209 *** HLSLIX LAZ034>038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068-231545- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 730 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...WEST FELICIANA...EAST FELICIANA...WEST AND EAST BATON ROUGE...ST HELENA...LIVINGSTON...IBERVILLE...ASCENSION IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WILKINSON COUNTY ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR 220 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. AS RITA MOVES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA TODAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARISHES WHERE SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...WEST TO NEW ORLEANS AND FURTHER WEST TO ASCENSION AND SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER REGION. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF RITA...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED REGIONS FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP IN HURRICANES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1045 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 231215 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 23A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO HURACAN RITA CONTINUA HACIA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LA COSTA NORTE DE TEXAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT MASFIELD TEXAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ALGUNAS PORCIONES EN TEXAS DENTRO DEL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN SER DECONTINUADAS MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 91.5 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 220 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...Y SE EPSERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA SE ESTARA ACERCANDO AL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 140 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 930 MILIBARAS...27.46 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES COMENZANDO TARDE EN EL VIERNES SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ALTA DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE SUR DE LOUISIANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...27.1 NORTE...91.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...140 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...930 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS84 KLCH 231224 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-231400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 720 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE RITA MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES... MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CAMERON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED 1 FOOT OF WATER IN CAMERON ON MAIN STREET AT 7 AM. CAMERON ALSO INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SIDE STREETS HAD WATER ON THEM. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SPREAD ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS EARLY THIS MORNING ...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1000 AM CDT. $$ 06 ** WTNT62 KNHC 231228 *** TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 231236 CCA *** HLSLIX LAZ034>038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068-231545- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR ISSUING OFFICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 730 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...WEST FELICIANA...EAST FELICIANA...WEST AND EAST BATON ROUGE...ST HELENA...LIVINGSTON...IBERVILLE...ASCENSION IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WILKINSON COUNTY ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR 220 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. AS RITA MOVES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA TODAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARISHES WHERE SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...WEST TO NEW ORLEANS AND FURTHER WEST TO ASCENSION AND SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER REGION. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF RITA...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED REGIONS FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP IN HURRICANES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1045 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KCRP 231246 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ233-234-242>247-231600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 745 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES... SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...BEE...VICTORIA AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR... SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED TODAY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INCLUDING VICTORIA...CALHOUN...ARANSAS... GOLIAD AND REFUGIO COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. A DUSK TO DAWN CURFEW IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES OF BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...JIM WELLS... AND NUECES. FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE CITY. FOR PORT ARANSAS...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE. THE BEACHES REMAIN CLOSED. EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO... AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 15 TO 20 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 20 TO 25 FEET BY THIS EVENING. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY...NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE LARGE SWELLS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WILL PUSH TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE HAS ALREADY REPORTED THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES. TIDE LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA MAY ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...THE HIGHEST WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL BEND REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES...WITH GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ...RAINFALL... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEYOND 20 NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE POSSIBLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TOWARD THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ RFM ** WTJP21 RJTD 231200 *** WARNING 231200. WARNING VALID 241200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 28.4N 138.7E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 29.5N 138.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 30.9N 138.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 33.7N 141.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 36.7N 147.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 231200UTC 28.4N 138.7E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 241200UTC 30.9N 138.7E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 251200UTC 33.7N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 261200UTC 36.7N 147.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 113.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.2N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.0N 105.1E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 28.3N 138.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 137.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 35.0N 140.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 37.5N 147.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 113.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.2N 109.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.0N 105.1E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 231200 *** WARNING 231200. WARNING VALID 241200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.5N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 20.7N 112.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 20.9N 107.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 21.0N 100.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 231200UTC 20.5N 116.7E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 180NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 241200UTC 20.7N 112.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 251200UTC 20.9N 107.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 261200UTC 21.0N 100.9E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231300 UTC 00HR 20.4N 116.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 116.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 116.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.6N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.5N 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.4N 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 19.3N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.6N 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 115.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH- EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 28.3N 138.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 138.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 29.5N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 30.8N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 32.5N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.9N 142.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 40.2N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 138.5E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 231345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 231200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 231200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTNT42 KNHC 231425 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE LEFTWARD BEND IN TRACK CONTINUES...AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW AROUND 290/16...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-AVERAGE SPEED IS EVEN FASTER. PHILIPPE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE SOUTH. IN FACT...PHILIPPE NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SINCE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME ABSORBED AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. EVEN IF PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ISLAND AS A RESULT OF THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 31.1N 63.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 31.5N 66.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 231427 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 137.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 137.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 138.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.4N 138.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 139.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 16.5N 140.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 137.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 231429 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...PHILIPPE HEADED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...BECOMING ILL-DEFINED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND DISSIPATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.1 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 231430 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z FRI SEP 23 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 63.2W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 63.2W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ24 KNHC 231431 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 1500Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 110.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ44 KNHC 231431 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 NORMA'S CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB... AND TAFB RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS FORECAST...AN EASTERLY SHEARING REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/4. NORMA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK...THE GFS FORECASTING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NOGAPS PREDICTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. AS A COMPROMISE OF THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.6N 109.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.1N 109.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.9N 110.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 17.7N 111.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 18.5N 111.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 114.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 231434 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 1500Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 150.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 85NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 150.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 149.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.7N 150.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 152.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.1N 154.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.3N 156.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.2N 159.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 32.6N 161.7W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 150.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER KODAMA $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 231436 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST FRI SEP 23 2005 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...JOVA HAS DEGENERATED CONSIDERABLY AND LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CB CELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. POSITION ESTIMATES BASED ON GOES DATA REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BUT AMSU AND SSMI DATA AFTER 0600 UTC INDICATED A POSITION TOO FAR NORTH IN THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN AND THE BEST TRACK POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...AFWA...SAB AND JTWC RANGE FROM 3.0 TO 3.5 SO WILL USE AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITHIN THE GRIP OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. CIMSS DATA INDICATED 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JOVA AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER WERE BETWEEN 25 AND 26 DEGREES C. NOGAPS AND GFNI KEEP JOVA AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH 96 AND 48 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. GFDI DROPS JOVA TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS AND SHIPS PREDICTS EVEN FASTER DISSIPATION. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL GO WITH THE GFDI INTENSITY SOLUTION AND WILL PROJECT DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THERE IS NO LONGER THE EXPECTATION OF JOVA TO REMAIN INTACT LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NEAR 40N. THE NOGAPS...GFNI...CONU...GUNS AND GUNA FORECASTS ARE CLUSTERED TOGETHER AND STILL SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE GFDL...GFS...BAMS AND BAMM FAVOR A CONTINUOUS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING CURRENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONU...GUNS AND GUNA CLUSTER THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE GFS TRACK. FORECASTER KODAMA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.7N 150.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 23.7N 150.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 24.9N 152.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 154.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 27.3N 156.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 30.2N 159.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1200Z 32.6N 161.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 231449 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA A LITTLE WEAKER...STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 929 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 231450 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 1500Z FRI SEP 23 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 91.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 250SE 250SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 91.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.3N 93.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 91.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 231451 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-231700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 949 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE RITA MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES... MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CAMERON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT WATER WAS RAPIDLY INUNDATING STREETS WITH MAIN STREET INCREASING TO MORE THAN 1 FOOT. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SPREAD ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS EARLY THIS MORNING ...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1200 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 231450 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC039-071-167-239-245-321-361-GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375-450-455-470-475-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ TXC007-057-391-409-GMZ235-255-275-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-ARANSAS-TX 27.83N 97.07W PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-232100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ TXC261-273-355-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-250-270-232100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W PORT-ARANSAS-TX 27.83N 97.07W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTNT43 KNHC 231452 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 RITA HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH HAS RISEN TO AROUND 927 MB AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 115 KNOTS. UNLESS ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS THAT COULD BRING THE WINDS TEMPORARILY UP A LITTLE BIT...THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS FOR RITA TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SO FAR THE PASSAGE OF RITA OVER THE WARM EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...RESEARCH SUGGESTS THERE IS A LAG IN THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE. NEVERTHERLESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS CATEGORY 3 OR...A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY NORTH AND EAST OF RITA AND IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RITA HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE INLAND...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. RITA BY THEN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE. A SOND DROPPED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 56 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI WEST OF THE EYE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 27.4N 91.9W 115 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 28.3N 93.1W 115 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.2W 100 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 231452 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.0N 94.2W 36 X X X 36 GALVESTON TX 37 X X X 37 31.5N 95.0W 18 10 X 1 29 FREEPORT TX 29 X X X 29 33.0N 94.5W 2 17 3 2 24 PORT O CONNOR TX 11 X X 1 12 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 X X 2 3 MOBILE AL X X 2 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS 1 1 2 3 7 GULF 28N 89W X 1 X 2 3 BURAS LA 3 2 1 2 8 GULF 28N 91W 99 X X X 99 NEW ORLEANS LA 6 3 1 2 12 GULF 28N 93W 74 X X X 74 NEW IBERIA LA 22 1 1 X 24 GULF 28N 95W 24 X X X 24 PORT ARTHUR TX 36 1 X X 37 GULF 27N 96W 1 X X 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT C FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN D FROM 7AM SUN TO 7AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 231505 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA UN POCO MAS DEBIL...PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN MUY PELIGROSO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL SUR DEL PUERTO ARANSAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 91.9 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 210 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE PORT ARTUHR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...Y SE EPSERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA TOCARA TIERRA CERCA DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y EL NORTE DE TEXAS TEMPRANO EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO CERCA DE 135 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ESTA EN EL BORDE ENTRE LA CATEGORIA TRES Y CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. UN POCO DE DEBILITAMIENTO ES POSIBLE ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE RITA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO UN HURACAN INTENSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 929 MILIBARAS...27.43 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE DE TEXAS...EL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...27.4 NORTE...91.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...929 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PR ** WTUS84 KLCH 231511 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-231830- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1010 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE RITA MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES... MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 75 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 75 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING NEAR 100 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING GUSTS TO 60 TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 50 MPH TONIGHT. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/231535ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/231540ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 047 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 22.4N 149.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 149.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.7N 150.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.9N 152.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.1N 154.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 27.3N 156.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 30.2N 159.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 32.6N 161.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231400 UTC 00HR 20.4N 116.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KBRO 231522 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-231800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY FOR COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER INCLUDING THE LAGUNA MADRE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 929 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCLUDING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. THE COMBINATION OF STORM TIDE AND ROUGH SURF FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF BEING A CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WIND GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS CONCERNING HURRICANE RITA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING HURRICANE RITA CAN BE FOUND FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER $$ SPEECE/LORENTSON ** WTUS84 KLIX 231526 *** HLSLIX LAZ034>038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068-231900- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...LEVEE OVER TOPPED IN NEW ORLEANS ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING POSTED FOR ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI... ...TORNADO WATCH POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...ST JAMES...PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...WEST FELICIANA...EAST FELICIANA...WEST AND EAST BATON ROUGE...ST HELENA...LIVINGSTON...IBERVILLE...ASCENSION IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WILKINSON COUNTY ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR 220 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND NOW. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL LEVEE BETWEEN CLAIBORNE AND FLORIDA AVENUE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN OVER TOPPED BY STORM SURGE AS SEEN ON TELEVISION VIDEO. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ORLEANS AND ST BERNARD PARISHES WHICH COULD BE INUNDATED WITH 3 TO 8 FEET OF WATER. ONSHORE FLOW HAS FILLED DRAINAGE CANALS AND BAYOUS WHICH IN SOME CASES REMAIN CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM HURRICANE KATRINA. TIDES ARE 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. AS RITA MOVES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI COAST WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ...AND 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TODAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR DAMAGED LEVEES...BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH SPREAD INLAND FROM THE THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA TODAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARISHES WHERE FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS RITA NEARS THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER REGION. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF RITA... WHICH IS THE PREFERRED REGIONS FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP IN HURRICANES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KHGX 231530 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-231930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1030 AM CST FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 288 AND INTERSTATE 45. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THOSE THAT HAVE NOT EVACUATED YET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR MOVE TO A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE MORE DANGEROUS TO BE STUCK IN YOUR CAR DURING TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL RISE TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE PEAK FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF HIGH ISLAND. ALL WATER HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE PREDICATED ON THIS TRACK AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL BE HIGHER SHOULD THE STORM SHOULD VEER TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK. PEAK WATER LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES AND MOVES JUST INLAND. THEN...DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PREVAILING...WATER LEVELS SHOULD RAPIDLY RECEDE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY. REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 5 TO 6 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS COULD CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 6 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN EAST BAY ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 1223 AM CDT SAT 7.0 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 211 AM CDT SAT 6.6 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 157 AM CDT SAT 6.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 148 AM CDT SAT 4.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 435 AM CDT SAT 4.7 FEET MORGANS POINT 1218 PM CDT SAT -4.1 FEET EAGLE POINT 551 AM CDT SAT 3.6 FEET FREEPORT 113 AM CDT SAT 5.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 802 AM CDT SAT 1.1 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE US 59 CORRIDER WILL BEGIN SEEING TROPICAL STORM WINDS AFTER 8 PM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE NEAR HIGH ISLAND AROUND 6 PM. LOCATIONS FROM EAST OF A GALVESTON BAY TO HIGHWAY 59 SHOULD ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. CHAMBERS COUNTY AND LIBERTY COUNTY INLAND TO POLK COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO 10 HOURS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 288 TO INTERSTATE 45 LINE. AREAS FURTHER WEST SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IN RAINBANDS. ASSUMING THE RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT DURING THE EVENT. THE TABLE REPRESENTS ONLY THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE WIND WHICH MAY OCCUR IN THE GIVEN COUNTY (NOT COUNTY WIDE): COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) ------ --------------------- --------------- CHAMBERS 85 105 POLK 90 110 LIBERTY 85 105 GALVESTON 70 90 SAN JACINTO 70 85 HARRIS 65 85 TRINITY 60 75 MONTGOMERY 65 80 BRAZORIA 60 80 FORT BEND 60 75 HOUSTON 55 70 WHARTON 40 60 MATAGORDA 40 55 BRAZOS 40 60 AUSTIN 50 60 MADISON 50 65 WALLER 55 70 WALKER 60 75 GRIMES 50 60 WASHINGTON 45 55 AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. THIS MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. ...TORNADOES... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 GENERALLY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ...RAINFALL... OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL BEACH TO CROCKETT CAN EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG INTERSTATE 45. WEST OF INTERSTATE 45... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY IF RITA SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/231530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/231540ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 036 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 136.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 136.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.2N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.3N 138.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.4N 138.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.5N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 16.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 16.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/231530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/231535ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 109.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 109.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.1N 109.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.9N 110.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.7N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 18.5N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KCRP 231548 *** HLSCRP GMZ235-255-275-TXZ233-234-244>247-232000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1045 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN... GOLIAD...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO AND VICTORIA COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES ARANSAS... CALHOUN...REFUGIO...AND EXTREME EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INCLUDING ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD... REFUGIO...AND VICTORIA COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...EVACUATION INFORMATION... A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CALHOUN COUNTY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN EFFECT FOR VICTORIA COUNTY. BEACHES ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS...FROM PORT ARANSAS TO THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE REMAIN CLOSED. ALL OTHER MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 13 TO 16 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 15 TO 20 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 20 TO 22 FEET THIS EVENING. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. WATER REMAINS UP TO THE DUNES IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS. ALSO...WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED INTO THE DITCHES ON OCEAN DRIVE IN MAGNOLIA BEACH. THE WATER WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH LOW TIDE TODAY. THEN...DURING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE BAYS AND 3 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE GULF SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. HOWEVER...HIGHER TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. SOME FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...THE HIGHEST WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL BEND REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES... WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ...RAINFALL... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEYOND 20 NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN POSSIBLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TOWARD THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE HALF INCH OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ JR ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231500 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 231500 *** WARNING 231500. WARNING VALID 241500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 28.7N 138.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 30.0N 138.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 31.2N 138.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 231500UTC 28.7N 138.6E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 241500UTC 31.2N 138.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 251200UTC 33.7N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 261200UTC 36.7N 147.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTUS84 KBRO 231559 CCA *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-231800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION FOR HEADLINES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER INCLUDING THE LAGUNA MADRE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 929 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCLUDING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. THE COMBINATION OF STORM TIDE AND ROUGH SURF FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF BEING A CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. WIND GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS CONCERNING HURRICANE RITA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING HURRICANE RITA CAN BE FOUND FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER $$ SPEECE/LORENTSON ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 231500UTC 20.4N 116.4E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 180NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 241500UTC 20.7N 112.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 251200UTC 20.9N 107.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 261200UTC 21.0N 100.9E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 231200 UTC 00HR 28.3N 138.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 137.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 35.0N 140.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 37.5N 147.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231500 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231500 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231600 UTC 00HR 20.4N 116.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KLCH 231644 *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-231830- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1140 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE RITA MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED NOW. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. THIS STORM SURGE COULD ALSO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL BE INLAND...HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SABINE...NECHES...AND CALCASIEU RIVERS...WHERE CRESTS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 75 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...AND OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER COUNTIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 75 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING NEAR 100 MPH SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 8 TO 10 HOURS. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND GUSTING OVER 100 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD LAST 10 TO 12 HOURS. JEFF DAVIS AND VERMILION PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING GUSTS TO 60 TO 75 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER ST. MARTIN PARISHES...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 50 MPH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...WINDS WILL BE 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD LAST OVER 12 HOURS. CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 20 TO 25 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA THROUGH 6 PM DUE TO OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 231645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 231500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 20 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231700 UTC 00HR 20.4N 115.9E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT32 KNHC 231742 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND DISSIPATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...30.5 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 231748 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM ON ISLE DENIERES NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 92.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 231750 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA UN POCO MAS DEBIL...PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN MUY PELIGROSO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL SUR DEL PUERTO ARANSAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 91.9 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 210 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE PORT ARTUHR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...Y SE EPSERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA TOCARA TIERRA CERCA DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y EL NORTE DE TEXAS TEMPRANO EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO CERCA DE 135 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ESTA EN EL BORDE ENTRE LA CATEGORIA TRES Y CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. UN POCO DE DEBILITAMIENTO ES POSIBLE ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE RITA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO UN HURACAN INTENSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 929 MILIBARAS...27.43 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE DE TEXAS...EL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...27.4 NORTE...91.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...929 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PR ** WTNT80 EGRR 231752 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 149.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2005 22.7N 149.9W MODERATE 00UTC 24.09.2005 23.1N 151.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 25.2N 153.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 26.2N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 28.9N 156.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 29.7N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 30.2N 157.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 29.7N 158.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 29.5N 160.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 136.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.4N 136.8W MODERATE 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.3N 138.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.9N 139.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 17.2N 140.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 17.0N 142.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 15.9N 143.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 14.7N 144.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.6N 146.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 14.6N 148.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 15.6N 150.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2005 17.2N 151.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2005 18.0N 152.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2005 19.3N 153.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 109.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.3N 109.3W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.1N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 17.0N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 17.2N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 17.7N 113.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 18.5N 114.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 19.5N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 20.6N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 20.5N 115.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 61.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2005 31.2N 61.6W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2005 32.9N 64.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 32.2N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 31.2N 63.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 31.2N 63.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 30.8N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 30.7N 61.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 31.2N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 31.9N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 91.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2005 27.2N 91.5W INTENSE 00UTC 24.09.2005 28.2N 92.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 29.8N 93.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 31.1N 94.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 33.1N 93.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 34.3N 93.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 33.9N 92.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 33.0N 92.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 32.2N 93.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 13.1N 32.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2005 13.1N 32.1W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2005 14.6N 35.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 15.5N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 16.0N 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 17.0N 40.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 18.2N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 20.2N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 20.5N 46.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2005 22.9N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2005 24.0N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2005 25.7N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231752 ** WTUS84 KFWD 231753 *** HLSFWD TXZ135-146>148-161-162-175-232230- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ANDERSON...FREESTONE... HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDERSON... FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH. RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. RITA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...LIGHT-WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND LAWN CHAIRS SHOULD BE SECURED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...SO HAVE FLASHLIGHTS... BATTERIES...A FULL TANK OF GAS...CASH...BOTTLED WATER AND NON-PERISHABLE FOODS ON HAND JUST IN CASE. PERSONS LOCATED IN AND NEAR THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS NOW WHILE THE WEATHER IS TRANQUIL. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ASKED TO EVACUATE. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. WIND GUSTS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO LIGHT-WEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS MOBILE HOMES...SHEDS...OPEN CAR PORTS...AND OUT-BUILDINGS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ANDERSON...FREESTONE...HENDERSON...LEON...LIMESTONE...NAVARRO AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS...EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF RITA TRACKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON HURRICANE RITA. $$ 92 ** WTCA43 TJSJ 231755 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 24A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA EN UNA TENDENCIA DE UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL SUR DEL PUERTO ARANSAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT ARANSAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 92.2 OESTE O COMO A 190 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 175 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE PORT ARTUHR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...Y SE EPSERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA TOCARA TIERRA CERCA DEL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y EL NORTE DE TEXAS TEMPRANO EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO CERCA DE 125 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA AHORA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR SIMPSON. UN POCO DE DEBILITAMIENTO ES POSIBLE ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA...PERO SE ESPERA QUE RITA ENTRE A TIERRA COMO UN HURACAN INTENSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 931 MILIBARAS...27.49 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES HOY SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SURESTE DE TEXAS...EL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL SUR DE MISSISSIPPI Y ALABAMA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...27.8 NORTE...92.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...155 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...931 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PR