** WTUS84 KBRO 230603 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-230900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 105 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND 425 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 921 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 1 AM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING HIGH TIDE ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BEACHES...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AT 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BRUSH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 AM CDT. $$ 65 ** WTIN20 DEMS 230610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 20.3N 117.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTUS84 KLIX 230629 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056>070-230945- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 130 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF PEARL RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA ON THE COASTLINE SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE SQUALLS...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 230634 *** HLSLCH LAZ029-033-044-045-051>055-231200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 131 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA... AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES... MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 600 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 230635 CCA *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-231135- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 135 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA... AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES... MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 600 AM CDT. $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 27.6N 139.2E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 29.0N 138.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 30.6N 138.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.6N 142.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 36.8N 148.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 27.6N 139.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 30.6N 138.5E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 250600UTC 33.6N 142.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 260600UTC 36.8N 148.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTUS84 KCRP 230649 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ232>234-242>247-231000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 200 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES... SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...BEE...VICTORIA AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND PARTS OF LOUISIANA FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTHWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES...BEE...SAN PATRICIO... REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK HURRICANE RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. A DUSK TO DAWN CURFEW IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES OF BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...JIM WELLS... AND NUECES. FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE CITY. FOR PORT ARANSAS...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE. THE BEACHES REMAIN CLOSED. EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO... AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS WILL RISE TO 13 TO 17 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING AND 20 TO 25 FEET OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY NORTH TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HIGH SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AT PORT OCONNOR. HIGH TIDE AT PORT OCONNOR IS AT 450 AM. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THESE HIGH TIDES WILL PUSH TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE HAS ALREADY REPORTED THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES. TIDE LEVELS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...LARGE SECTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA MAY ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...COULD REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ DUNN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 20.3N 117.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 113.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.1N 110.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.0N 106.2E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 27.6N 139.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 31.3N 137.5E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 34.5N 140.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 37.2N 146.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.5N 116.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 20.7N 113.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 21.0N 108.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 21.2N 102.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 20.5N 116.8E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 20.7N 113.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 250600UTC 21.0N 108.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 260600UTC 21.2N 102.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 230600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 230600UTC 27.6N 139.2E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 240600UTC 30.9N 138.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 250600UTC 34.4N 142.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 260600UTC 38.1N 149.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 230600 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230700 UTC 00HR 20.3N 117.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 230745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPZ24 KNHC 230801 *** TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142005 0900Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.3W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.3W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 112.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 230745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 27.7N 139.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 139.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 28.8N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 30.1N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.4N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.4N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 37.1N 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 41.4N 157.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 138.7E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARN- INGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 117.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 117.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.0N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.8N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.7N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 19.6N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.6N 106.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.6N 102.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 116.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ44 KNHC 230827 *** TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM NORMA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS SINCE INCREASED CLOSE TO THE CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C. DATA T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE 35-45 KT...DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER RELATIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION... AND RAW ODT VALUES ARE 45 KT USING A CURVED BAND PATTERN AND 45-55 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN. THE RAW ODT VALUES ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...BUT A 22/2205Z CIRA-AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND 40 KT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... THE INTENSITY IS HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/5. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR VICE VERSA ...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION USING NIGHTTIME IMAGERY. A LARGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORMA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL... AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL MEAN MOTION OF THE WIDELY DIVERGENT GLOBAL MODELS. THE CURRENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 15 KT IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE IT INCREASES AGAIN AFTERWARDS. WITH NORMA EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD... AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER... AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ... IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR HOLDS OFF THROUGH 48 HOURS... THEN NORMA COULD BECOME A 65-KT HURRICANE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.1N 109.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.2N 111.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.9N 112.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.7N 116.4W 45 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 119.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 230830 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0900Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 59.4W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 59.4W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 59.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.6N 60.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 34.5N 59.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.6N 58.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 37.4N 54.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 59.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 230839 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0900Z FRI SEP 23 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION AND ALL FORECAST POSITIONS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 60.3W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 60.3W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.0N 61.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.7N 61.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.1N 59.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 37.4N 54.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 230840 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.7N 61.2W 39 X X X 39 37.4N 54.6W X X 13 X 13 35.1N 59.3W 6 14 5 X 25 BERMUDA 8 3 X X 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 230840 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT MON SEP 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.9N 93.6W 39 X X X 39 FREEPORT TX 24 2 X 1 27 30.4N 94.6W 22 7 X 1 30 PORT O CONNOR TX 12 3 1 1 17 31.5N 95.0W 7 17 1 1 26 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 2 3 1 2 8 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X 2 2 3 7 GULF 28N 89W 3 1 1 1 6 BURAS LA 4 2 2 2 10 GULF 28N 91W 53 X X X 53 NEW ORLEANS LA 5 4 2 2 13 GULF 28N 93W 51 X X X 51 NEW IBERIA LA 19 2 1 X 22 GULF 28N 95W 23 1 X X 24 PORT ARTHUR TX 28 2 X 1 31 GULF 27N 96W 4 3 X 2 9 GALVESTON TX 30 X 1 X 31 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT C FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN D FROM 1AM SUN TO 1AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 230840 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.7N 61.2W 39 X X X 39 37.4N 54.6W X X 13 X 13 35.1N 59.3W 6 14 5 X 25 BERMUDA 8 3 X X 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 230840 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC039-071-167-239-245-321-361-GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375-450-455-470-475-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ TXC007-057-261-273-355-391-409-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-235- 250-255-270-275-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-231500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-231500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTNT32 KNHC 230848 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 470 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... IF PHILIPPE DOES NOT DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS FORECAST... THEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... PHILLIPE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA OR BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N... 60.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 230852 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR RITA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN TEXAS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION OPERATED BY LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST OF 65 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 130 FT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.8 N... 91.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 230853 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z FRI SEP 23 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN TEXAS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 91.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 250SE 250SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 91.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 90.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.6N 92.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.9N 93.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.4N 94.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 91.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 230853 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 136.4W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 136.4W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 136.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.2N 136.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 137.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 138.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N 138.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 15.8N 141.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 143.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 136.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 230853 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 149.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 149.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 149.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.3N 151.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.9N 152.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.7N 153.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.6N 154.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N 156.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 36.8N 154.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 40.0N 150.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 149.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER KODAMA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 230856 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 RITA IS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THIS MORNING...AS THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE INNER 15 N MI WIDE EYE HAD DISSIPATED AND A SINGLE 33 N MI WIDE EYE EXISTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ARE 125-130 KT...WHICH HELPS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED THAT ANOTHER WIND MAXIMA HAS FORMED ABOUT 60 N MI FROM THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT BE THE START OF ANOTHER OUTER EYEWALL. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB. RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN 300-305 DEGREES AT 8-9 KT. RAWINSONDE DATA AT 00Z INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT OVER TEXAS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW CLUSTERED ABOUT A LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ROUGHLY 30 HR...WITH THE MODEL TRACK BEING SPREAD BETWEEN SAN LUIS PASS AND SABINE PASS. THE FORECAST TRACK UP TO LANDFALL IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE GUIDANCE BECOME VERY DIVERGENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF RITA. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HR JUST AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID. THIS STALLING WILL POSE A SERIOUS RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. SINCE RITA HAS COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HR. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY... POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS COULD HAPPEN IF THE SHEAR REACHES THE 25 KT VALUES FORECAST BY THE GFS AND SHIPS MODELS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 26.8N 91.0W 120 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 27.6N 92.2W 125 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 28.9N 93.6W 120 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 30.4N 94.6W 80 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/0600Z 33.0N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 230856 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST THU SEP 22 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO AND ABOUT 515 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...22.2 N...149.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER KODAMA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 230857 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 MICROWAVE DATA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS DETERMINED THAT THE CENTER LOCATION WAS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. A SSMI OVERPASS FROM 0522 UTC REVEALED A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/3 KT. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND THEY MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER. A WEAK EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT IS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST WELL WEST OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE UKMET APPEARS AN OUTLINER IN TRACKING THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A FORWARD SPEED OF 3-4 KT AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IN THE LONGER RANGER AS NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY STEER KENNETH IN THAT DIRECTION. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN 24-36 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW KENNETH TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.0N 136.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.2N 136.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.2N 137.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.3N 138.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.3N 138.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 15.8N 141.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 15.6N 143.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 230857 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM JOVA CONTINUES TO WAGE AN UNSUCCESSFUL BATTLE AGAINST UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE FORM VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES C. POSITION ESTIMATES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE BEEN A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE LACK OF A CLEAR CUT SATELLITE CENTER. POSITIONS FROM THE VARIOUS FIX AGENCIES ARE NEARLY 1 DEGREE APART. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS AN SSMI PASS THAT IS WELL EAST OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND A QUICKSCAT PASS PUTTING THE CENTER FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE AGENCY FIXES. THE QUICKSCAT PASS COULD BE INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SEPARATING FROM THE WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN JOVA. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN SUBJECTIVE FIXES. FOR INTENSITY...DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.5 TO 4.0. GIVEN THE REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WILL GO WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. JOVA REMAINS WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY MEAN FLOW. CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH A WEAKENING JOVA NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING IT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS... BAMS AND GFDL ARE AMONG THE WESTERN TRACK OUTLIERS THAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCREDITED. IF JOVA IS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND WILL NOT ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE CONSENSUS AIDS. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF JOVA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS MAY WARRANT FAVORING A MORE WESTERN TRACK. IN EITHER CASE...JOVA WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE WEAKENING TREND AND DROPS JOVA BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMIC MODELS VERSUS SHIPS WHICH KILLS OFF JOVA AFTER 36 HOURS. FORECASTER KODAMA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 22.2N 149.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 23.3N 151.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 152.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 26.7N 153.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 28.6N 154.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 32.7N 156.2W 30 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 36.8N 154.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0600Z 40.0N 150.2W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 230901 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVIENDOSE MAS CERCA DE BERMUDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.3 OESTE O COMO A 295 MILLAS...470 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...30 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD ES ANTICIPADO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SI PHILIPPE NO DISMINUYE SU VELOCIDAD COMO PRONOSTICADO...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIA SER REQUERIDA PARA BERMUDA MAS TARDE DURANTE LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PHILIPPE PODRIA SER ABSORBIDO POR UN AMPLIO SISTEMA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO BIEN AL SUR DE BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...30.5 NORTE...60.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT42 KNHC 230902 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 AFTER COMING OUT OF THE DREADED SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD... NIGHT TIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE PHILIPPE MADE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES... AND ACCELERATED UP TO 20-22 KT. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE HAS TURNED MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT A SLOWER SPEED...BUT TOWARD BERMUDA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB. AFWA CAME IN WITH A 45-KT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE CENTER OF THE LARGE LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/16. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF BERMUDA... AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE COULD GET SHEARED OUT AND ABSORBED INTO THE SUBTROPICAL LOW... OR REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY AND ESCAPE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE LOW AND SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY AN APPPOACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS THE ONE CHOSEN AND INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...WHETHER PHILIPPE EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED TO THE SOUTH OR RECURVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST... THE CENTER AND SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MAY GET UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 40-60 KT FORECAST EXPECTED TO AFFECT PHILIPPE WITHIN 36 HOURS... IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE UP TO 58 KT IN 60 HOURS... IN THE FACE OF 58 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 30.5N 60.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 32.0N 61.2W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/0600Z 33.7N 61.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/1800Z 35.1N 59.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0600Z 37.4N 54.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230800 UTC 00HR 20.3N 117.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230900 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPN33 PHNC 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230935ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 109.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 109.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.6N 110.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.2N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.9N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.5N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 18.7N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 20.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA43 TJSJ 230923 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 23 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT VIERNES 23 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO...CATEGORIA CUATRO...HURACAN RITA MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE ENTRANDO A LA PARTE NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT MASFIELD TEXAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ALGUNAS PORCIONES EN TEXAS DENTRO DEL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN SER DECONTINUADAS MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL QUEDA DESCONTINUADO PARA LA COSTA DE TEXAS AL SUR DE PORT MANSFIELD Y PARA LA PORCION NORESTE DE MEXICO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 91.0 OESTE O COMO A 290 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 250 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...Y SE EPSERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA SE ESTARA ACERCANDO AL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS MAS TARDE OHOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 140 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS. UNA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA OPERADA POR LA UNIVERSIDAD DE DEL ESTADO DE LOUISIANA CERCA DE LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 55 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 65 MPH EN UNA ELEVACION DE 130 PIES. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 927 MILIBARAS...27.37 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. GRANDES MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RITA PROBABLMENTE ESTARAN AFECTANDO LA MAYOR PORCION DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A TRAVES DE LA PARTE ESTE DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE OESTE DE LOUISIANA. ADICIONALMENTE...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A LA ZONA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES COMENZANDO TARDE EN EL VIERNES SOBRE PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ALTA DE TEXAS Y LA PARTE SUR DE LOUISIANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...26.8 NORTE...91.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...140 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...927 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 7 AM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LA 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PR ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230900 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 113.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.1N 109.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 20.0N 105.4E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 230900 *** WARNING 230900. WARNING VALID 240900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 950 HPA AT 28.0N 139.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 29.1N 138.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 30.7N 138.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 28.0N 139.0E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 30.7N 138.5E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 250600UTC 33.6N 142.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 260600UTC 36.8N 148.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230940ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 035 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 136.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 136.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.2N 136.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.2N 137.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.3N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.3N 138.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.8N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.6N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KLIX 230949 *** HLSLIX LAZ034>038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068-231245- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 447 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. AS RITA MOVES FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. SINCE KATRINA...THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SQUALLS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARISHES WHERE UP TO EIGHT INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...WEST TO NEW ORLEANS AND FURTHER WEST TO ASCENSION AND SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS RITA NEARS THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER REGION. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF RITA FOR A TIME TODAY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED REGIONS FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP IN HURRICANES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 AM CDT. MEDLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230940ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 046 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 149.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 149.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.3N 151.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 24.9N 152.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 26.7N 153.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 28.6N 154.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 32.7N 156.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 36.8N 154.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 40.0N 150.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORMA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 20.5N 116.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 20.7N 112.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 250600UTC 21.0N 108.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 260600UTC 21.2N 102.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTUS84 KCRP 231020 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ232>234-242>247-231300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 520 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES... SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...BEE...VICTORIA AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED TODAY. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR KLEBERG...NUECES...BEE AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INCLUDING VICTORIA...CALHOUN...ARANSAS... GOLIAD AND REFUGIO COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. A DUSK TO DAWN CURFEW IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES OF BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...JIM WELLS... AND NUECES. FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE CITY. FOR PORT ARANSAS...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE. THE BEACHES REMAIN CLOSED. EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO... AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS WILL RISE TO 15 TO 20 FEET LATER THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 20 TO 25 FEET BY THIS EVENING. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE FOOT OR LESS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY...NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE LARGE SWELLS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WILL PUSH TOTAL TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE HAS ALREADY REPORTED THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES. TIDE LEVELS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...LARGE SECTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA MAY ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...THE HIGHEST WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL BEND REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES...WITH GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. ...RAINFALL... CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER FRINGES OF RITA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ RFM ** WTUS84 KBRO 231020 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-230900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL WILLACY AND KENEDY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 927 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING HIGH TIDE ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BEACHES...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AT 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BRUSH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 AM CDT. $$ 65 ** WTUS84 KBRO 231035 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-231300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL WILLACY AND KENEDY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 927 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING HIGH TIDE ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BEACHES...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AT 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BRUSH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 AM CDT. $$ 65 ** WTUS84 KLCH 231037 CCA *** HLSLCH LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-231135- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 540 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER...AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY... UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...ACADIA...AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION OPERATED BY LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A GUST OF 65 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 130 FT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES... MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SPREAD ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS EARLY THIS MORNING ...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 800 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 231000 UTC 00HR 20.3N 116.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 231045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 231045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS