** WTNT33 KNHC 222359 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES... 465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...NOAA BUOY 42001 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RITA REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 83 MPH...134 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112 MPH...180 KM/HR. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KBRO 230014 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-230300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 705 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 470 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 913 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 7 PM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. LOW TIDE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO HIGH TIDE BY 10 PM CDT TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PREDICTED HIGH TIDE OF 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BRUSH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CDT. $$ PHILO ** WTCA43 TJSJ 230017 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 21A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE NOROESTE... ...LAS BANDAS EXTTERNAS SE EXTINEDEN SOBRE EL SUR DE LOUISIANA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARALA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT MASFIELD TEXAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.9 OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS...565 KILOMETROS... AL ESTE SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 290 MILLAS...465 KILOMETROS AL SURESTE DE CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE EPSERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA SE ESTARA ACERCANDO AL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS MAS TARDE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER VIENTO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN NEW ORLEANS ESTE LIMITADO A VARIAS TURBONADAS ASOCIADAS CON BANDAS DE LLUVIA QUE SE MUEVEN RAPIDAMENTE. POCO ANTES A LAS 6 PM CDT...LA BOYA DE NOAA 42001 JUSTO AL SUR DEL CENTRO DE RITA REPORTO VIENTO EN UN PROMEDIO DE 10 MINUTOS DE 83 MPH...134 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON UNA RAFAGA DE 112 MPH...180 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 913 MILIBARAS...26.96 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA DISMINUYA LA VELOCIDAD. ADEMAS...LAS CANTIDAES DE 3 A5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A NEW ORLEANS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...26.0 NORTE...89.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...913 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 20.1N 118.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 20.1N 118.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 115.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.2N 111.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.2N 107.8E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTUS84 KCRP 230046 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ232>234-242>247-230500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 745 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES... SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...BEE...VICTORIA AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTHWARD TO SABINE PASS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES...BEE...SAN PATRICIO... REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 480 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK HURRICANE RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND ARANSAS. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES OF BEE...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...JIM WELLS AND NUECES. FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE CITY. FOR PORT ARANSAS...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE. THE BEACHES REMAIN CLOSED. FOR SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS WILL RISE TO 12 TO 16 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING AND 20 TO 25 FEET OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS ARE AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING FROM PORT ARANSAS NORTH TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HIGH SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH TIDE AT PORT ARANSAS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AROUND 1000 PM AND HIGH TIDE AT PORT OCONNOR WILL OCCUR AROUND 450 AM. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THESE HIGH TIDES WILL PUSH TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE HAS ALREADY REPORTED THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES THIS AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...LARGE SECTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA MAY ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...COULD REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ JR ** WTJP21 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 955 HPA AT 27.2N 140.2E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 29.0N 139.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 31.0N 138.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 34.8N 144.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 37.4N 152.1E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 27.2N 140.2E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 31.0N 138.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 250000UTC 34.8N 144.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 260000UTC 37.4N 152.1E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 27.2N 140.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 31.0N 137.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 34.1N 139.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 36.8N 145.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTUS84 KLCH 230056 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-230500- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 715 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES BETWEEN INTERSTATE 10 AND THE COASTLINE. THIS INCLUDES JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CALCASIEU... JEFF DAVIS...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN... CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS INCLUDES HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND BEAUREGARD... ALLEN...EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...VERNON...RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE AT 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A SIGNIFICANT AND DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE HURRICANE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THIS WOULD COVER THE COASTLINE FROM SEA RIM STATE PARK IN JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CALCASIEU PASS IN CAMERON PARISH...INCLUDING SABINE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET FOR THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN CAMERON AND VERMILION PARISHES...AND 6 TO 10 FEET AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS. BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1100 PM. $$ 20 ** WTUS84 KHGX 230056 CCA *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-230400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 755 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF ...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WATCH FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431 TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK. ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED...TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS CONTRA-FLOW PLANS ARE IMPLEMENTED. DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE. FOR HARRIS COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C BEGAN MANDATORY EVACUATIONS THIS MORNING AT 6 AM. FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B STARTED A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM. ZONE C STARTED MANDATORY EVACUATION 6 AM. THE PEARLAND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-STURDY STRUCTURES...AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION. LIBERTY COUNTY... LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE. FOR FORT BEND... VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT. FOR WHARTON... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGAN AT 6 AM. FOR POLK COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-STURDY STRUCTURES. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS...AND HARRIS COUNTIES ARE CLOSED. LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE ARE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES ARE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON IS CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 FOOT OF NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES INLAND...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE TO 7 FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN END OF GALVESTON BAY SATURDAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND NOON FRIDAY AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/4 PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45...THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK ...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT. KEEP IN MIND THEY WILL BE HIGHER TO THE EAST AND NOT AS STRONG TOWARD MATAGORDA BAY: COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) CHAMBERS 125 155 LIBERTY 115 140 POLK 100 130 GALVESTON 90 110 HARRIS 75 90 SAN JACINTO 75 90 TRINITY 75 90 BRAZORIA 60 80 WHARTON 55 70 BRAZOS 55 65 MATAGORDA 45 60 AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE IMPACTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS 100 TO 110 MPH ARE AS FOLLOWS... VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES ARE LIKELY! STRUCTURAL DAMAGE... THOSE OF US WHO HAVE NEVER LIVED THROUGH A HURRICANE SHOULD CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING TAKEN IN PART FROM THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE TABLE. WITH WINDS OF... 74 TO 95 MPH - DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES...SHRUBBERY AND TREES. NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. 96 TO 110 MPH - ROOFING...DOOR AND WINDOW DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. 111 TO 130 MPH - SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SMALL RESIDENCES AND UTILITY BUILDINGS WITH MINOR AMOUNT OF WALL FAILURES. MOBILE HOMES ARE DESTROYED. 131 TO 155 MPH - MORE EXTENSIVE CURTAINMENT WALL FAILURES...WITH SOME COMPLETE ROOF STRUCTURE FAILURES ON RESIDENCES. OVER 155 MPH - COMPLETE ROOF FAILURE ON MANY RESIDENCES AND INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS. SOME COMPLETE BUILDING FAILURES. THE ABOVE INFORMATION DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION DAMAGE OR LOSSES TO MARINAS AND BOATS AT ANCHOR OR AFLOAT ON OPEN WATERS... NOR ARE WIND DRIVEN TIDES CONSIDERED. NATURAL DAMAGE... ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES MAY UPROOT OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES SHOULD SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES MAY BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 230057 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056>070-230345- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 755 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF PEARL RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKLIEHOOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. SEVERAL PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE MANDATORY AND OR VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR LATEST EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...AND MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE SQUALLS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS WHICH MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 PM CDT. $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 230057 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 21A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE NOROESTE... ...LAS BANDAS EXTERNAS SE EXTIENDEN SOBRE EL SUR DE LOUISIANA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARALA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT MASFIELD TEXAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.9 OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS...565 KILOMETROS... AL ESTE SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 290 MILLAS...465 KILOMETROS AL SURESTE DE CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE EPSERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA SE ESTARA ACERCANDO AL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS MAS TARDE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER VIENTO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN NEW ORLEANS ESTE LIMITADO A VARIAS TURBONADAS ASOCIADAS CON BANDAS DE LLUVIA QUE SE MUEVEN RAPIDAMENTE. POCO ANTES A LAS 6 PM CDT...LA BOYA DE NOAA 42001 JUSTO AL SUR DEL CENTRO DE RITA REPORTO VIENTO EN UN PROMEDIO DE 10 MINUTOS DE 83 MPH...134 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON UNA RAFAGA DE 112 MPH...180 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 913 MILIBARAS...26.96 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA DISMINUYA LA VELOCIDAD. ADEMAS...LAS CANTIDAES DE 3 A5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A NEW ORLEANS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...26.0 NORTE...89.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...913 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTJP22 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 19.8N 118.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 20.0N 114.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 20.1N 110.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 20.8N 103.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 19.8N 118.3E FAIR MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 20.0N 114.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 250000UTC 20.1N 110.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 260000UTC 20.8N 103.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 230000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 230000UTC 19.8N 118.4E MOVEMENT WSW 7KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 240000UTC 19.7N 114.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 250000UTC 19.9N 109.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 260000UTC 20.7N 104.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 36 HOURS FROM 230000 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230100 UTC 00HR 20.2N 118.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 230145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 230145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 230145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 230000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230152ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 118.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 118.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.2N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.1N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 19.8N 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.5N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.0N 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.0N 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 19.6N 99.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 118.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 230230 *** TCMCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0300Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 149.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 95NE 85SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 90SE 80SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 149.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 149.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 150.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 151.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 65SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.7N 153.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 65SE 55SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.6N 154.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.5N 156.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.9N 155.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 39.3N 151.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 149.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 230231 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST THU SEP 22 2005 ...JOVA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.5 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO AND ABOUT 540 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...21.4 N...149.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 230238 *** TCDCP3 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST THU SEP 22 2005 JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 3.0 BY CPHC TO 4.0 BY GWC...WITH JTWC AND SAB COMING IN AT 3.5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. JOVA LAYS WITHIN A SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 27N 133W AND A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 35N 157W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS ARRANGEMENT...SO THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JOVA MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER 72 HOURS JOVA IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. JOVA IS LOCATED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20 KT...PER UW-CIMSS CALCULATIONS...WITH STRONGER SHEARING FURTHER NORTH. THE SHEAR IS THE RESULT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW...OVER NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE FIRST TIME SHOWS A PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL HIDDEN BENEATH DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOVA...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND A BIT SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH TAKE HOVA IN A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND TO THE LEFT OF THE REMAINING OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE AIDS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH SOME TAKING HOVA OFF TO THE WEST AS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND OTHERS CURVING HER TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE OPTED FOR THE LATTER SCENARIO...WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 21.4N 149.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 150.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 151.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 25.7N 153.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 154.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 31.5N 156.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 35.9N 155.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0000Z 39.3N 151.9W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230200 UTC 00HR 20.3N 118.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTNT23 KNHC 230248 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z FRI SEP 23 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.3W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 250SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.3W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.4N 93.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 94.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 90.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 230248 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 560 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 310 MILES... 495 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 917 MB...27.08 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 917 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 230248 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.4N 93.0W 41 X X X 41 FREEPORT TX 15 9 1 X 25 29.8N 94.2W 19 10 X 1 30 PORT O CONNOR TX 6 8 2 2 18 31.1N 94.7W 4 18 2 1 25 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 4 2 3 10 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 2 3 MOBILE AL X 1 1 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 2 3 GULFPORT MS 1 2 2 4 9 GULF 28N 89W 8 2 X 1 11 BURAS LA 5 4 2 1 12 GULF 28N 91W 46 X X X 46 NEW ORLEANS LA 5 6 2 2 15 GULF 28N 93W 44 X X X 44 NEW IBERIA LA 15 6 1 1 23 GULF 28N 95W 19 3 1 X 23 PORT ARTHUR TX 17 11 1 X 29 GULF 27N 96W 4 4 2 2 12 GALVESTON TX 20 7 1 1 29 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT C FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT D FROM 7PM SAT TO 7PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 230253 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.4W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.4W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 136.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 136.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 138.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 139.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 142.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 136.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER SISKO/KRAUTKRAMER/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 230255 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. CURRENTLY...KENNETH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING LEVEL FLOW. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT STRENGTHENS KENNETH TO A HURRICANE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENS IT BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE OTHER MODELS TRACK IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...NOGAPS...UKMET AND CONU. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. FORECASTER SISKO/KRAUTKRAMER/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.5N 136.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 136.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 138.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 16.0N 139.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 16.1N 142.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 230255 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 DEEP CONVECTION WITH RATHER COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAIN NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A 2207 UTC SSMI OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME IDEA AS TO THE CENTER LOCATION. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT BECOMES CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER EXISTS. BASED ON A 2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEGAN SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. IF PHILIPPE SURVIES...A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 345/15. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND GFDL STILL SUGGESTING THAT PHILIPPE WILL SLOW DOWN AND NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATE PHILIPPE AND/OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGES IT WITH THE FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO BUT IS NOT AS FAST WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. THE TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BUT IT REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 28.8N 58.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 30.7N 59.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 35.3N 58.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0000Z 36.5N 55.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 230256 CCB *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 22 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN RITA EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO...CATEGORIA CUATRO...CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE NOROESTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT O'CONNOR HASTA PORT MASFIELD TEXAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 90.3 OESTE O COMO A 360 MILLAS...560 KILOMETROS... AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 310 MILLAS...495 KILOMETROS AL SURESTE DE CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE EPSERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA SE ESTARA ACERCANDO AL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS MAS TARDE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 140 MPH...220 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER VIENTO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN NEW ORLEANS ESTE LIMITADO A VARIAS TURBONADAS ASOCIADAS CON BANDAS DE LLUVIA QUE SE MUEVEN RAPIDAMENTE. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 917 MILIBARAS...27.08 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 2 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA Y ALABAMA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 5 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SURESTE DE TEXAS Y EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE A TIERRA. BASADO EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ACUMULACIONES DE LLLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE EL SISTEMA DISMINUYA LA VELOCIDAD. ADEMAS...LAS CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO A NEW ORLEANS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...26.2 NORTE...90.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...140 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...917 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTNT22 KNHC 230256 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z FRI SEP 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 58.3W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 58.3W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.7N 59.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.3N 58.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 36.5N 55.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 230256 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES... 735 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 58.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 230256 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.0N 59.8W 37 X X X 37 36.5N 55.5W X 7 9 X 16 35.3N 58.2W 7 17 1 X 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 230301 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC039-071-167-239-245-321-361-GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375-450-455-470-475-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ TXC007-057-261-273-355-391-409-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-235- 250-255-270-275-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W $$ LAC051-057-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-GMZ530-550-555-570- 575-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ TXC061-230900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTNT43 KNHC 230304 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE MIGHT BE NEARING COMPLETION. THERE IS NOW ONLY A SINGLE FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL THAT THE AIRCRAFT RADAR INDICATE IS SLOWLY CONTRACTING... WHILE THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A COMPLETE RING OF VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER THAN -70C... NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ONLY RISEN SLIGHTLY TO 917 MB AS MEASURED BY THE MOST RECENT DROPSONDE. RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WIND DATA DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY GREATER THAN ABOUT 110 KT...BUT GIVEN THE VERY LOW PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 120 KT. RITA IS ABOUT TO PASS OVER ANOTHER EDDY OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. COMBINING THIS WITH THE POSSIBLE CONTRACTION OF THE OUTER EYEWALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER ON FRIDAY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO LESSER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. ALTHOUGH RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE OVERALL MOTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS REMAINED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 300/9. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...SINCE THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS STRADDLE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RITA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. RITA IS FORECAST TO THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS IN THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK. THIS SCENARIO POSES A GREAT RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND AND FOR MANY DAYS AFTER LANDFALL. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 26.2N 90.3W 120 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 27.0N 91.5W 125 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 28.4N 93.0W 120 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 29.8N 94.2W 115 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 94.7W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 230306 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 23 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.3 OESTE O COMO A 455 MILLAS...735 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11PM EDT...28.8 NORTE...58.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/KNABB $$ TRADUCTORA VAZQUEZ WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS84 KBRO 230309 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-230600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1005 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND 440 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 917 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 PM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING HIGH TIDE ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BEACHES...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AT 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BRUSH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 AM CDT FRIDAY. $$ PHILO ** WTPH20 RPMM 230000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 16 (FINAL ) AT 00000 23 SEPTEMBER, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SIX HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 240000 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPN32 PGTW 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/222130ZSEP2005// AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 033 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 136.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 136.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.0N 136.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.1N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.2N 138.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.3N 139.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.4N 140.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.5N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 222200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 136.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/222130ZSEP2005// AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 033 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 136.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 136.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.0N 136.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.1N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.2N 138.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.3N 139.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.4N 140.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.5N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 222200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 136.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 230300 UTC 00HR 20.3N 117.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTUS84 KLIX 230327 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056>070-230645- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES...TANGIPAHOA ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF PEARL RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND. MANY PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE EVACUATIONS ORDERS FOR FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR EVACUATION INFORMATION AND FOLLOW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES DUE TO TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA ON THE COASTLINE SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. IN ADDITION MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED FROM THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE SQUALLS...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS AND MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 AM CDT. $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 230300 *** WARNING 230300. WARNING VALID 240300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 955 HPA AT 27.5N 139.5E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 29.5N 138.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 31.6N 138.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 27.5N 139.5E GOOD MOVE NW 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 31.6N 138.8E 100NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 250000UTC 34.8N 144.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 260000UTC 37.4N 152.1E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 045 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 10E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 149.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 149.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.5N 150.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 24.0N 151.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 25.7N 153.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.6N 154.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 31.5N 156.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 35.9N 155.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KCRP 230355 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ232>234-242>247-230700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1100 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES... SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...BEE...VICTORIA AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND PARTS OF LOUISIANA FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTHWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES...BEE...SAN PATRICIO... REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK HURRICANE RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. A DUSK TO DAWN CURFEW IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES OF BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...JIM WELLS... AND NUECES. FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE CITY. FOR PORT ARANSAS...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE. THE BEACHES REMAIN CLOSED. EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO... AND KLEBERG COUNTIES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS WILL RISE TO 13 TO 17 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING AND 20 TO 25 FEET OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS ARE AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT FROM PORT ARANSAS NORTH TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HIGH SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OVERNIGHT. HIGH TIDE HAS JUST OCCURRED AT PORT ARANSAS AND HIGH TIDE AT PORT OCONNOR WILL OCCUR AROUND 450 AM. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THESE HIGH TIDES WILL PUSH TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE HAS ALREADY REPORTED THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES THIS AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PORT OCONNOR AND PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SHALLOW FLOODING OF SOME AREAS IN PORT OCONNOR. SOME LOW LYING AREAS OF MAGNOLIA BEACH WILL ALSO BE FLOODED. IN ADDITION...LARGE SECTIONS OF MATAGORDA ISLAND WILL BE FLOODED AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IN THE INDIANOLA AREA MAY ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...COULD REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 AM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ DUNN ** WTPH RPMM 230000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 16 (FINAL) AT 0000 23 SEPTEMBER,SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY)(0518) WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SIX HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 240000 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD END OF FCST= ** WTPN32 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/230330ZSEP2005// AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 034 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 136.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 136.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.6N 136.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.8N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.9N 138.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.0N 139.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.0N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.1N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 16.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 230400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 136.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 230300 *** WARNING 230300. WARNING VALID 240300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.2N 117.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 20.1N 113.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 20.2N 117.4E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 20.1N 113.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 250000UTC 20.1N 110.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 260000UTC 20.8N 103.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTUS84 KLCH 230422 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-230500- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE... HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES.. SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES... MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER. IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY. NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT: SABINE PASS: FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT CALCASIEU PASS: FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT SOUTHWEST PASS: FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUT