** WTUS84 KCRP 221806 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ231>234-241>247-222300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 100 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER BUT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS... REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTHWARD TO SABINE PASS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES...BEE...SAN PATRICIO... REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING MAY CONTINUE TODAY...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF CALHOUN...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...KLEBERG...NUECES AND ARANSAS. FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...THE MAYOR HAS STOPPED THE MANDATORY EVACUATION OF THE CITY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS CAN STILL PROCEED. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF INDIVIDUALS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS HAS BEEN RESCINDED. THE CITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVACUATE THOSE WITHOUT MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION WHO WISH TO BE EVACUATED TO SHELTERS IN SAN ANTONIO. FOR PORT ARANSAS...OFFICIALS HAVE STOPPED THE MANDATORY EVACUATION. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION CAN STILL PROCEED IN PORT ARANSAS. FOR SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN SUSPENDED. FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. ALL RESIDENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET OCCURRING 40 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS WILL RISE TO 8 TO 10 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND AND REACH 12 TO 16 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. TIDE LEVELS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. THE HIGH SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST TONIGHT WILL PUSH TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES. IF THE TIDES DO REACH 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...THERE WILL BE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE REPORTED THE WATER HAD REACHED THE DUNES AND REMAINS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF RITA. IF RITA REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE FLOODING IMPACT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF COASTAL FLOODING. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ JR ** WTCA43 TJSJ 221808 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 20A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SE DEBILITA UN POCO MAS...PERMANECE COMO UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DEL PUERTO O'CONNOR HASTA PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS Y PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.2 OESTE O COMO A 435 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 430 MILLAS AL SURESTE DEL PUERTO ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH POR HORA. UN GIRO GRADUAL AL NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 A 36 HORAS. INFORMACION DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 150 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA AHORA ES UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS PERO SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE MANTENGA COMO UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 915 MILIBARAS...27.01 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y A LA DERECHA DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 1 PIE SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 4 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS DESDE LA COSTA CENTRAL DE TEXAS HASTA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO...EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. BASADO EN EL PRONOSTICO DE TRAYECTORIA LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...25.5 NORTE...89.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...150 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...915 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS84 KEWX 221813 *** HLSEWX TXZ193-194-209-223>225-222030- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 115 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER...REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BASTROP...LEE... FAYETTE...GONZALES...DE WITT AND LAVACA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL PRARIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND INTO LAVACA COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GONZALES AND LA GRANGE AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE BASTROP AND GIDDINGS AREAS DURING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH OR GREATER...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO CUERO LINE. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 221815 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-222200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 115 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...BUT STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES BETWEEN INTERSTATE 10 AND THE COASTLINE. THIS INCLUDES JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CALCASIEU... JEFF DAVIS...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN... CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS INCLUDES HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND BEAUREGARD... ALLEN...EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...VERNON...RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE...AND STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A SIGNIFICANT AND DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THIS WOULD COVER THE COASTLINE FROM SEA RIM STATE PARK IN JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CALCASIEU PASS IN CAMERON PARISH...INCLUDING SABINE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET FOR THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN CAMERON AND VERMILION PARISHES...AND 6 TO 10 FEET AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS. BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING INLAND ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH...POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE NEAR 80 MPH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 100 MPH OR GREATER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 500 PM. $$ ESCUDE/LOCKWOOD ** WTUS84 KBRO 221816 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-222100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 115 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 525 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 915 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. CURRENT LOW TIDE CONDITIONS EXIST WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS FLOODING. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK ** WTUS84 KBRO 221816 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-222100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 115 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 525 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 915 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. CURRENT LOW TIDE CONDITIONS EXIST WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS FLOODING. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 20.2N 119.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KBRO 221816 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-222100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 115 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 525 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 915 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. CURRENT LOW TIDE CONDITIONS EXIST WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS FLOODING. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 20.2N 119.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KBRO 221816 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-222100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 115 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 525 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 915 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. CURRENT LOW TIDE CONDITIONS EXIST WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS FLOODING. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 20.2N 119.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 26.4N 141.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 29.5N 137.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 32.3N 137.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 34.8N 139.9E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 26.4N 141.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 29.5N 137.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 32.3N 137.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 34.8N 139.9E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 26.4N 141.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 29.5N 137.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 32.3N 137.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 34.8N 139.9E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 20.2N 119.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 115.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.6N 112.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.6N 108.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 26.4N 141.3E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 30.0N 138.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 241800UTC 34.2N 143.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 251800UTC 38.1N 152.9E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE 22KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 955 HPA AT 26.4N 141.3E WESTSOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 28.1N 139.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 30.0N 138.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 34.2N 143.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 38.1N 152.9E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP22 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.3N 118.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 20.7N 114.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 20.8N 109.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 21.6N 104.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 20.3N 118.5E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 20.7N 114.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 241800UTC 20.8N 109.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 251800UTC 21.6N 104.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTUS84 KLIX 221917 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056>070-222202- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 201 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN 36 HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. SEVERAL PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE MANDATORY AND OR VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WILL START TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS MAY DEVELOP AS THE TIDES INCREASE. THE COASTAL AREAS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...AND MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES HAVE BEEN DEGRADED. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DEBRIS REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS WHICH WILL HINDER RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ31 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(GLOBAL MODEL) ON TS 0518 D AMREY (0518) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 78 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221900 UTC 00HR 20.2N 118.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR N E HPA M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221900 UTC 00HR 20.2N 118.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 221945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 221800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 221945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 221800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT22 KNHC 222024 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 2100Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 31.3N 60.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 32.8N 60.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 57.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 222024 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.3W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.3W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.0N 136.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 137.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 138.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.3N 139.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.4N 140.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 222024 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF PHILIPPE ACTUALLY STILL HAS A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION... THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION AND APPARENT ROTATION TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A NOMINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. PHILIPPE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. A HIGHLY DIFLUENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE CYCLONE'S NORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN AND PHILIPPE APPEAR TO BE MOVING MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM...SO I AM NOT EXPECTING THE CYCLONE TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS PHILIPPE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/15. PHILIPPE...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER LOW IN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING PHILIPPE FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES GENERALLY WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATING PHILIPPE AND/OR THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL LEAVE PHILIPPE BEHIND OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST ONLY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z UKMET RUN. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE WILL LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.5N 57.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 60.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 32.8N 60.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 222024 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWARD... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES... 870 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...OR LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THIS TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N... 57.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 222025 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.3N 60.2W 41 1 X X 42 35.0N 58.0W X 4 12 X 16 32.8N 60.2W 21 5 X X 26 BERMUDA X 3 2 X 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 222025 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS KENNETH IS A WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN. A 1559Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOUND EARLIER AND ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTED WAS NEEDED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAB AND SAB. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE. DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE WATERS REMAIN ABOVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS OWN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...CALLS FOR KENNETH TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SLOW WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS KEEPING A MEANDERING CYCLONE CLOSE TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION WITH AN EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF MAX. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE KENNETH ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BEING STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKES KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS/UKMET SOLUTION. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.8N 136.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 136.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 16.1N 137.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.2N 138.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 16.3N 139.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 16.4N 140.2W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 222030 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 2100Z THU SEP 22 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 148.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 95NE 85SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 95SE 80SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 148.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 148.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.6N 149.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 151.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 65SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.7N 152.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 70SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.8N 153.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.6N 155.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 37.0N 153.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 40.8N 146.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 148.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 222032 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST THU SEP 22 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.9 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AND ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU, OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...20.6 N...148.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 222037 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.7 OESTE O COMO A 540 MILLAS...870 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOR NOROESTE O NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...AUNQUE PHILIPPE PUDIERA DISIPARSE DENTRO DE UN AREA MAS AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION...O PERDER SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES DURANTE ESTE TIEMPO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...27.5 NORTE...57.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTORA VAZQUEZ WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA42 TJSJ 222037 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.7 OESTE O COMO A 540 MILLAS...870 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NOR NOROESTE O NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...AUNQUE PHILIPPE PUDIERA DISIPARSE DENTRO DE UN AREA MAS AMPLIA DE BAJA PRESION...O PERDER SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES DURANTE ESTE TIEMPO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...27.5 NORTE...57.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTORA VAZQUEZ WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT23 KNHC 222043 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 2100Z THU SEP 22 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 913 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 89.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 89.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 222045 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-045-101-113-TXC039-071-167-239-245-321-361-GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375-450-455-470-475-230300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ LAC063-071-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-230300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050922T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ TXC007-057-261-273-355-391-409-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-235- 250-255-270-275-230300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W $$ LAC051-057-075-109-GMZ550-555-570-575-230300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W $$ TXC061-230300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-555-575-230300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTPA43 PHFO 222046 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST THU SEP 22 2005 JOVA IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD 325 DEG AT 10 KT. FINAL T NUMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE 3.5 TO 4.0...AND CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 4.0 TO 5.0. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. JOVA IS BEING STEERED BY A SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH TO ITS NORTHEAST NEAR 27N 133W AND A LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST NEAR 35N 157W. THIS ARRANGEMENT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH WITH TIME...SO THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JOVA MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. AFTER 48 HOURS...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. JOVA IS LOCATED IN A SOMEWHAT UNFRIENDLY SHEARING ENVIROMENT...WITH EVEN MORE SHEARING TO ITS NORTH. THE SHEAR IS THE RESULT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW...OVERLAYING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOVA...AS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHWEST SHEAR. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4 DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MAJORITY OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 20.6N 148.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.6N 149.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 23.2N 151.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 24.7N 152.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.8N 153.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.6N 155.1W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 37.0N 153.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1800Z 40.8N 146.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 222000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 222000 UTC 00HR 20.2N 118.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT43 KNHC 222049 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 RITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913 MB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 25.8N 89.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 90.7W 125 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 27.8N 92.4W 125 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.8W 120 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 94.5W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1800Z 33.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 222049 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANYTROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. AT 3 PM CDT...A NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112 MPH...180 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 222049 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.8N 92.4W 40 X X X 40 GALVESTON TX 8 17 1 X 26 29.2N 93.8W 14 14 X 1 29 FREEPORT TX 7 16 1 X 24 30.5N 94.5W 1 19 3 1 24 PORT O CONNOR TX 4 11 2 1 18 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 5 1 2 9 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X 1 2 4 7 GULF 29N 87W X 1 X 2 3 GULFPORT MS X 3 3 3 9 GULF 28N 89W 18 1 X X 19 BURAS LA 5 6 1 2 14 GULF 28N 91W 39 X X X 39 NEW ORLEANS LA 3 8 2 2 15 GULF 28N 93W 33 X X 1 34 NEW IBERIA LA 6 13 1 1 21 GULF 28N 95W 15 7 1 X 23 PORT ARTHUR TX 4 20 1 1 26 GULF 27N 96W 4 5 1 1 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT C FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT D FROM 1PM SAT TO 1PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 26.4N 141.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 141.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.5N 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 28.8N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 30.2N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 32.5N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 35.8N 142.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 39.6N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 140.7E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 119.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 119.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.6N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.5N 116.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.2N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.0N 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.3N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 19.1N 104.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 19.6N 100.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 118.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KBRO 222107 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-230000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 405 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 500 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 913 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAVE ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER. OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. LOW TIDE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO HIGH TIDE BY 10 PM CDT TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PREDICTED HIGH TIDE 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO FLOOD THE BEACHES AND DUNES ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BRUSH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIP CURRENTS IS VERY HIGH AS HEAVY SURF AND SWELL ACTION CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK ** WTCA43 TJSJ 222120 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 21 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL PELGROSO HURACAN RITA SE DIRIGE GRADUALMENTE HACIA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL NORTE DE LA DESDEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARL RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PEARLA RIVER INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLTIANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN...Y DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DE PORT'O CONNOR HASTA PORT MANSFIELD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE PUEDEN ESPERAR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.5 OESTE O COMO A 405 MILLAS...650 KILOMETROS... AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 390 MILLAS AL SURESTE DEL PUERTO ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA SE ACERCARA AL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA Y LAS COSTAS MAS ALTAS DE TEXAS MAS TARDE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...230 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA... FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE CUALQUIER VIENTO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN NEW ORLEANS ESTE CONFINADO A VARIAS TURBONADAS ASOCIADAS CON BANDAS DE LLUVIA QUE SE MUEVEN RAPIDAMENTE. A LAS 3 PM CDT...UNA BOYA DE NOAA REPORTO VIENTO EN UN PROMEDIO DE 10 MINUTOS DE3 89 MPH...143 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON UNA RAFAGA DE 112 MPH...180 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 913 MILIBARAS...26.961 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y A LA DERECHA DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 1 PIE SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 4 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS DESDE LA COSTA CENTRAL DE TEXAS HASTA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO...EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. BASADO EN EL PRONOSTICO DE TRAYECTORIA LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...25.8 NORTE...89.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...913 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7PM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ R.VAZQUEZ ** WTUS84 KEWX 222120 *** HLSEWX TXZ193-194-209-223>225-222230- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 415 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER AND GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS CANCELLED... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLCH 222123 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-230100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 425 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA SLOWLY WEAKENING...STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT OCONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES BETWEEN INTERSTATE 10 AND THE COASTLINE. THIS INCLUDES JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CALCASIEU... JEFF DAVIS...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN... CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THIS INCLUDES HARDIN...TYLER... JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND BEAUREGARD... ALLEN...EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...VERNON...RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. RITA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES. CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH. JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS. ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS. ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE. IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A SIGNIFICANT AND DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THIS WOULD COVER THE COASTLINE FROM SEA RIM STATE PARK IN JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CALCASIEU PASS IN CAMERON PARISH...INCLUDING SABINE LAKE. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET FOR THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN CAMERON AND VERMILION PARISHES...AND 6 TO 10 FEET AROUND VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAYS. BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 800 PM. $$ ESCUDE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 222100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 222100 UTC 00HR 20.1N 118.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 20.7N 115.5E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTUS84 KCRP 222134 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ232>234-242>247-230200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 430 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES... SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...BEE...VICTORIA AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS HURRICANE RITA MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTH TO PORT MANSFIELD. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTHWARD TO SABINE PASS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES OF KLEBERG...NUECES...BEE...SAN PATRICIO... REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK HURRICANE RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF CALHOUN...GOLIAD AND ARANSAS. VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES OF BEE...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...JIM WELLS AND NUECES. FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE CITY. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF INDIVIDUALS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS HAS BEEN RESCINDED. THE CITY WILL STOP EVACUATING THOSE WITHOUT MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION WHO WISH TO BE EVACUATED AT 6 PM. FOR PORT ARANSAS...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE. THE BEACHES REMAIN CLOSED. FOR SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN LIFTED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET OCCURRING 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. SEAS WILL RISE TO 12 TO 16 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING AND 20 TO 25 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TIDE LEVELS ARE AROUND A HALF OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORT ARANSAS NORTH TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HIGH SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES. IF THE TIDES DO REACH 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL...THERE WILL BE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE REPORTED THE WATER HAD REACHED THE DUNES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF RITA. IF RITA REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE FLOODING IMPACT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 MPH TO POSSIBLY 50 MPH...COULD REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ TMT ** WTPN32 PGTW 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/222130ZSEP2005// AMPN/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 033 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 136.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 136.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.0N 136.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.1N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.2N 138.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.3N 139.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.4N 140.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.5N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 222200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 136.3W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/222135ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 044 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 148.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 148.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.6N 149.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.2N 151.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 24.7N 152.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 26.8N 153.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 31.6N 155.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 37.0N 153.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KEWX 222143 CCA *** HLSEWX TXZ193-194-209-223>225-222230- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 415 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER AND GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... ...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS CANCELLED... ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 222145 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056>070-230100- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTAIN AND NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREA FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF PEARL RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THE STRONG LIKLIEHOOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. SEVERAL PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE MANDATORY AND OR VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME..AND RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO MEDIA FOR LATEST EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS...TENTS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES...SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE TIDES INCREASE. THE COASTAL AREAS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...AND MANY HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA HAVE BEEN DEGRADED. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA...MAINLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE LOOSE DEBRIS AT THIS TIME. ...RAINFALL... SQUALLS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE SQUALLS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. DEBRIS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA DAMAGE REMAINS IN DRAINAGE CANALS WHICH MAY HINDER RAINFALL RUNOFF. PUMPING STATION CAPACITY STILL REMAINS DEGRADED DUE TO HURRICANE KATRINA. ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 PM CDT. $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 222100 *** WARNING 222100. WARNING VALID 232100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 955 HPA AT 26.7N 140.7E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 28.7N 139.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 30.6N 138.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 26.7N 140.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 30.6N 138.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 241800UTC 34.2N 143.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 251800UTC 38.1N 152.9E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE 22KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 222100 *** WARNING 222100. WARNING VALID 232100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.1N 118.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 20.4N 113.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 20.1N 118.4E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 20.4N 113.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 241800UTC 20.8N 109.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 251800UTC 21.6N 104.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 221800 *** T T T STORM WARNING 15 AT 1800 22 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (0518) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 231800 TWO ZERO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTUS84 KHGX 222212 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-230400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 511 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BUT REMAINS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RITA IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431 TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK. ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED...TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS CONTRA-FLOW PLANS ARE IMPLEMENTED. DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE. FOR HARRIS COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C BEGAN MANDATORY EVACUATIONS THIS MORNING AT 6 AM. FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B STARTED A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM. ZONE C STARTED MANDATORY EVACUATION 6 AM. THE PEARLAND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-STURDY STRUCTURES...AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION. LIBERTY COUNTY... LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE. FOR FORT BEND... VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT. FOR WHARTON... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGAN AT 6 AM. FOR POLK COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-STURDY STRUCTURES. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS...AND HARRIS COUNTIES ARE CLOSED. LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE ARE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES ARE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON IS CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 FOOT OF NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES INLAND...WATER LEVELS COULD RISE TO 7 FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN END OF GALVESTON BAY SATURDAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND NOON FRIDAY AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/4 PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 45...THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE RITA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK ...LISTED BELOW ARE ESTIMATED WINDS SELECTED COUNTIES CAN EXPECT. KEEP IN MIND THEY WILL BE HIGHER TO THE EAST AND NOT AS STRONG TOWARD MATAGORDA BAY: COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS (MPH) PEAK GUST (MPH) CHAMBERS 125 155 LIBERTY 115 140 POLK 100 130 GALVESTON 90 110 HARRIS 75 90 SAN JACINTO 75 90 TRINITY 75 90 BRAZORIA 60 80 WHARTON 55 70 BRAZOS 55 65 MATAGORDA 45 60 AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE IMPACTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS 100 TO 110 MPH ARE AS FOLLOWS... VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE H