** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KBRO 221206 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221520- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 705 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 .....POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES AND HIDALGO COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 907 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 7 AM CDT...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS BEGINNING TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 AM CDT. $$ BC ** WTUS84 KCRP 221222 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ231>234-241>247-221600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 721 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...STRONG CATEGORY FIVE RITA MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND MID COAST REGION TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT O'CONNOR. THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDED WITHIN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREA ARE...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO...NUECES...AND KLEBERG. THE CITY MANAGER OF CORPUS CHRISTI WOULD LIKE FOR THE CITY TO BE EVACUATED BY FRIDAY AT NOON. FOR GOLIAD COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DECLARED AT 10 AM THIS MORNING. FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. ALL RESIDENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT CLOSINGS... ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS FROM THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE CANCELED CLASSES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND VICTORIA. CLASSES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI...DEL MAR COLLEGE...COASTAL BEND COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON IN VICTORIA. THE COMMANDER OF NAVY REGION SOUTH HAS ORDERED EVACUATION OF NAVAL STATION INGLESIDE...AND NAVAL AIR STATIONS CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COAST BY TONIGHT...PUSHING TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES. IF THE TIDES DO REACH 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL... THERE WILL BE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF RITA. IF RITA REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE FLOODING IMPACT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF COASTAL FLOODING. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF PORT ARANSAS. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ RFM ** WTPN21 PGTW 221230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED/221221zSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221221Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 106.2W TO 14.9N 111.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCU- LATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 106.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.0N 104.2E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 231230Z.// ** WTJP21 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 955 HPA AT 25.6N 142.8E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 27.4N 140.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 29.3N 139.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 32.9N 141.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 35.2N 146.2E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 25.6N 142.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 29.3N 139.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 241200UTC 32.9N 141.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 251200UTC 35.2N 146.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTUS84 KLCH 221250 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-221600- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 730 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...AND JEFF DAVIS PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION. CAMERON PARISH...EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS MANDATORY FOR PERSONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND RECOMMENDED FOR RESIDENTS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. ACADIA PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR SOUTHERN PART OF THE PARISH. IBERIA...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14. JEFF DAVIS...EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. LAFAYETTE...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY. ST. MARTIN...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH AND LOW-LYING AREAS IN UPPER ST MARTIN PARISH. VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY EVACUATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 TO ABBEVILLE AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A SIGNIFICANT AND DEADLY STORM SURGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. AS RITA ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF WATERS NORTHWARD. A 20 TO 25 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE HURRICANE ...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 FEET OVER COASTAL ACADIANA. THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS. ...WIND IMPACTS... DESPITE RITA MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS AND OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SPREADING INLAND ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS...RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH...POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE NEAR 80 MPH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THESE STRONG WINDS AND THE EXTENDED TIME OF THE WINDS...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL FALL...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL. ...RAINFALL... EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1000 AM. $$ MARCOTTE ** WTPN21 PGTW 221230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED/221221ZSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221221Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 106.2W TO 14.9N 111.7W WITHIN THE/NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE/ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A/CIRCU- LATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 106.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING/WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.0N 104.2E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES/MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 231230Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 25.6N 142.8E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.2N 137.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 31.6N 135.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 34.6N 137.6E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 116.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.6N 113.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.6N 119.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.3N 119.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 20.6N 115.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 21.1N 110.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 21.8N 104.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 995 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 20.3N 119.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 20.6N 115.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 241200UTC 21.1N 110.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 251200UTC 21.8N 104.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 995HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 116.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.6N 113.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 20.6N 109.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTUS84 KHGX 221336 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-221600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED FORMATING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 534 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 175 MPH... ...HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AND FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431 TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK. ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED...TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE. DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE. FOR HARRIS COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C WILL HAVE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGINNING AT 6 AM. FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B STARTED A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM. ZONE C WILL HAVE A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 6 AM. PEARLAND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-STURDY STRUCTURES...AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION. LIBERTY COUNTY... LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ASKED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE. FOR FORT BEND... VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT. FOR WHARTON...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGIN AT 6 AM. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS...AND HARRIS COUNTIES ARE CLOSED. LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE ARE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES ARE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON IS CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDES IMPACT... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING WITHIN 1 FOOT OF NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING LATER TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND NOON FRIDAY AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE IMPACTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS 100 TO 110 MPH ARE AS FOLLOWS... VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES ARE LIKELY! STRUCTURAL DAMAGE... THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES MAY BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE COULD BE UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY RECEIVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY COULD BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES MAY INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING... GUTTERS...AND BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS MAY FAIL. PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS POSSIBLE AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS MAY BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS MAY CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES. NATURAL DAMAGE... ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES MAY UPROOT OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES SHOULD SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES MAY BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ...RAINFALL... 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. INLAND FLOODING IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KEWX 221343 *** HLSEWX TXZ193-194-209-223>225-231345- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 843 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... BASTROP... LEE... FAYETTE... GONZALES... DE WITT... AND LAVACA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL PRARIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...INLAND WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND INTO LAVACA COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GONZALES AND LA GRANGE AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE BASTROP AND GIDDINGS AREAS DURING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH OR GREATER...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO CUERO LINE. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 11 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221300 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221300 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 221345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 221200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 221345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 221200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 221345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 221200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTUS84 KEWX 221412 *** HLSEWX TXZ193-194-209-223>225-231345- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 843 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... BASTROP... LEE... FAYETTE... GONZALES... DE WITT... AND LAVACA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME WEAKENING MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL PRARIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND INTO LAVACA COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GONZALES AND LA GRANGE AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE BASTROP AND GIDDINGS AREAS DURING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH OR GREATER...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO CUERO LINE. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 11 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 119.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 119.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.7N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.8N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.7N 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.3N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.1N 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 19.9N 101.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 118.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 221427 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 135.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 135.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 136.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.7N 137.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.8N 137.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 135.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 221427 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHERE THE CENTER IS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS IS IMPARTING SOME NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ALSO APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY. UNDERNEATH THE WATER IS STILL WARM...HOWEVER...AND THESE COMPETING FACTORS ARGUE FOR RELATIVELY MODEST INTENSITY CHANGES. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/8 IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND THE CENTER CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT... WITH THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REFLECTING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN TAKING KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH...BUT SLOWER THAN...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 15.4N 135.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 136.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.7N 137.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 15.8N 137.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 221428 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 MAX HAS FAILED TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION SINCE 18Z YESTERDAY...SO THE SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON MAX. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE REMNANTS WILL MOVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD HAVE AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.8N 122.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.8N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/0000Z 21.1N 124.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 221428 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 1500Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.8N 123.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.1N 124.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 122.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 25.7N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.0N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 28.3N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 30.3N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 32.2N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 34.8N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 38.8N 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 142.1E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA33 PHFO 221430 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST THU SEP 22 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 635 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...19.7 N...148.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 221443 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.2N 57.6W...ABSORBED MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.6N 58.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.6N 58.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.5N 51.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N 45.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 221443 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 DETERMINING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS MORNING. THE CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND SATELLITE REPRESENTATION SHOWS THE OVERALL SYSTEM OBTAINING SUBTROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS RATHER QUICKLY. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE ARE 2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB AND 1.5...25 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A FEW POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PHILIPPE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE PHILIPPE/EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UKMET MODEL ACCELERATES THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN THREE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A WEAKENING SLOW DECAY WITH LITTLE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...ABSORBING PHILIPPE INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. UNLESS THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF PHILIPPE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IF THE GFS SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.2N 57.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 28.2N 57.6W 35 KT...ABSORBED 24HR VT 23/1200Z 30.6N 58.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 24/0000Z 32.6N 58.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1200Z 36.5N 51.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z 38.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 221445 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 1500Z THU SEP 22 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 148.2W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 95NE 85SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 95SE 80SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 148.2W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 148.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.7N 149.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.1N 150.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 65SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 151.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 70SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.4N 152.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.4N 154.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 36.6N 154.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 40.1N 149.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 148.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 221451 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...PHILIPPE BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1120 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN A LARGER NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 57.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 221454 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 1500Z THU SEP 22 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 88.7W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 88.7W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 88.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 88.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 221454 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...740 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15 INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 221455 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.9N 91.6W 40 X X X 40 FREEPORT TX 2 16 4 1 23 28.2N 93.0W 19 8 X X 27 PORT O CONNOR TX 1 12 5 1 19 30.0N 94.5W 1 14 8 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 6 5 2 13 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X 2 1 2 5 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 29N 87W X 2 1 1 4 MOBILE AL X 1 3 3 7 GULF 28N 89W 17 1 X 1 19 GULFPORT MS X 3 5 2 10 GULF 28N 91W 26 2 X X 28 BURAS LA 4 7 2 2 15 GULF 28N 93W 21 6 1 X 28 NEW ORLEANS LA 2 8 4 2 16 GULF 28N 95W 6 14 2 X 22 NEW IBERIA LA 2 13 5 1 21 GULF 27N 96W 3 9 2 1 15 PORT ARTHUR TX 1 15 7 1 24 GULF 25N 96W 1 1 X 1 3 GALVESTON TX 2 17 5 X 24 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI C FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT D FROM 7AM SAT TO 7AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 221455 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 25.4N 88.7W 145 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 25.8N 89.9W 140 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 26.9N 91.6W 130 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 28.2N 93.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 100 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1200Z 34.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 221200 *** T T T STORM WARNING 14 AT 1200 22 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 231200 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE EAST AT 241200 TWO ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT83 KNHC 221456 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 .HURRICANE RITA TXC007-057-261-273-355-391-409-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-235- 250-255-270-275-222100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050922T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W $$ LAC051-057-075-109-GMZ550-555-570-575-222100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W $$ LAC063-071-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-222100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1018.050922T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ TXC061-222100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ LAC045-101-222100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ LAC023-TXC039-071-167-239-245-321-361-GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375- 450-470-222100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050922T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ LAC045-101-113-GMZ455-475-222100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050922T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ LAC023-113-TXC039-071-167-239-245-321-361-GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375-450-455-470-475-222100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTPN32 PHNC 221600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/221530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/221545ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 032 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 135.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 135.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.5N 136.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.7N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.8N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.0N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 16.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 16.0N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT72 KNHC 221501 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.6N 58.7W 35 X X 1 36 BERMUDA X 1 2 X 3 32.6N 58.8W 13 9 1 X 23 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 34.5N 57.0W X 10 6 2 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221400 UTC 00HR 20.0N 119.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 221200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 14 AT 1200 22 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.2N 119.7E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 08MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 25MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 231200 20.7N 117.1E AT 241200 21.3N 114.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPA43 PHFO 221511 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST THU SEP 22 2005 A VERY TIMELY TRMM PASS AT 1111 UTC HELPED PROVIDE THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS A RESULT OF THIS EXTREMELY VALUABLE INFORMATION FOUND ON THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES...IT WAS DETERMINED THAT JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS 330 DEG AT 7 KT. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL OF THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT JOVA HAS WEAKENED. THE TRMM PASS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOWED THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY OPEN. A RECENT CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON 1233 UTC AMSU DATA ALSO SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF JOVA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 80 KT. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS DEPICTED BY THE UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...REMAINS THE LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS WEAKENING THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY TO INCREASE AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSES SUPPLIED BY THE UW/CIMSS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH DAY 3 AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS MODELS CLOSELY. AFTER 72 TO 96 HOURS...THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO INDICATE THAT JOVA WILL LIKELY BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE DECREASED TO BETTER AGREE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS. THESE ARE ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. ONCE IT REACHES THE HIGHER LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5...JOVA MAY GAIN NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE. A FINAL NOTE OF CAUTION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JOVA TO DECOUPLE. IN THAT CASE...THIS WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGHT BE CARRIED TO THE LEFT OF THIS FORECAST TRACK FORECASTER HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 19.7N 148.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 20.7N 149.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.1N 150.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 24.1N 151.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.4N 152.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.4N 154.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 36.6N 154.7W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 40.1N 149.2W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 221522 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221520- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR KENEDY COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 550 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 907 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. A LOW TIDE IS PREDICTED AROUND NOON WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS REMAINING FLOODED. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ KMV ** WTUS84 KBRO 221524 CCA *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221820- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR KENEDY COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 550 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 907 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. A LOW TIDE IS PREDICTED AROUND NOON WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS REMAINING FLOODED. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ KMV ** WTUS84 KBRO 221522 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221520- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR KENEDY COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 550 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 907 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. A LOW TIDE IS PREDICTED AROUND NOON WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS REMAINING FLOODED. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ KMV ** WTUS84 KBRO 221522 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221520- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR KENEDY COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 550 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 907 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. A LOW TIDE IS PREDICTED AROUND NOON WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS REMAINING FLOODED. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ KMV ** WTCA43 TJSJ 221529 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE DEBILITE UN POCO PERO SE PRONOSTICA QUE TOQUE TIERRA COMO UN PELIGROSO HURACAN... ...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...UN AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA EL NORTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.7 OESTE O COMO A 460 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 445 MILLAS AL SURESTE DEL PUERTO ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A 36 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A 165 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE RITA UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UN LEVE DEBILITAMIENTO PERO SE ESPERA QUE RITA PERMANEZCA COMO UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 907 MILIBARAS...26.78 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y A LA DERECHA DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 1 PIE SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 4 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS DESDE LA COSTA CENTRAL DE TEXAS HASTA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO...EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. BASADO EN EL PRONOSTICO DE TRAYECTORIA LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...25.4 NORTE...88.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...165 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...907 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS84 KBRO 221522 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221520- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR KENEDY COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 550 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 907 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. A LOW TIDE IS PREDICTED AROUND NOON WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS REMAINING FLOODED. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ KMV ** WTCA43 TJSJ 221529 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE DEBILITE UN POCO PERO SE PRONOSTICA QUE TOQUE TIERRA COMO UN PELIGROSO HURACAN... ...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...UN AVISO DE HURACAN HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON ESPERADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE COMPLETARSE LO ANTES POSIBLE. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA EL NORTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS Y EL LAGO PONTCHARTRAIN. UN VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE PUERTO MANSFIELD A BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...Y PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL RIO SAN FERNANDO AL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.7 OESTE O COMO A 460 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 445 MILLAS AL SURESTE DEL PUERTO ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A 36 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A 165 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE RITA UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UN LEVE DEBILITAMIENTO PERO SE ESPERA QUE RITA PERMANEZCA COMO UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 907 MILIBARAS...26.78 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 15 A 20 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES...COMO TAMBIEN GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SE PUEDEN ESPERAR CERCA Y A LA DERECHA DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE ALREDEDOR DE 1 PIE SOBRE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 4 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS DESDE LA COSTA CENTRAL DE TEXAS HASTA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO...EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. BASADO EN EL PRONOSTICO DE TRAYECTORIA LOS TOTALES DE LLUVIA EN EXCESO DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...25.4 NORTE...88.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...165 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...907 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS84 KBRO 221522 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221520- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1020 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY COUNTY. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR BROOKS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR KENEDY COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES EAST OF PORT ISABEL OR 550 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 907 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COASTAL BEACH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE BEACHES OF CAMERON COUNTY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER AND OBEY ALL WARNINGS POSTED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS. A LOW TIDE IS PREDICTED AROUND NOON WITH BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS REMAINING FLOODED. HIGH TIDE IS PREDICTED FOR 10 PM CDT TONIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE AND INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM RITA WILL CAUSE SEA WATER TO INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ KMV ** WTUS84 KLIX 221538 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056>070-221900- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN 36 HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WILL START TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS LATE TODAY THROUGH AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS MAY DEVELOP AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ...RAINFALL... SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPN34 PHNC 221600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/221530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/221535ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 017 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 122.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 122.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.8N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.5N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.1N 124.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTUS84 KEWX 221545 *** HLSEWX TXZ193-194-209-223>225-221830- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1045 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BASTROP...LEE... FAYETTE...GONZALES...DE WITT AND LAVACA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL PRARIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND INTO LAVACA COUNTY FRIDAY EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GONZALES AND LA GRANGE AREAS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE BASTROP AND GIDDINGS AREAS DURING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH OR GREATER...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO CUERO LINE. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 221546 CCA *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-056>070-221900- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WINDS IN STORM INFORMATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1030 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...ST TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST CHARLES...ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN 36 HOURS. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...TRAILERS OR HOMES STRUCTURALLY WEAKENED BY RECENT HURRICANES SHOULD ALSO MAKE PLANS TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WILL START TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS LATE TODAY THROUGH AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS MAY DEVELOP AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ...RAINFALL... SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ...NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KHGX 221550 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-222200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1049 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 165 MPH... ...HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431 TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK. ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED...TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS CONTRA-FLOW PLANS ARE IMPLEMENTED. DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE. FOR HARRIS COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C BEGAN MANDATORY EVACUATIONS THIS MORNING AT 6 AM. FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B STARTED A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM. ZONE C STARTED MANDATORY EVACUATION 6 AM. THE PEARLAND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-STURDY STRUCTURES...AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION. LIBERTY COUNTY... LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE. FOR FORT BEND... VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT. FOR WHARTON...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGAN AT 6 AM. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS...AND HARRIS COUNTIES ARE CLOSED. LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE ARE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES ARE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON IS CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDES IMPACT... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1/2 TO 1 FOOT OF NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND NOON FRIDAY AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE IMPACTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS 100 TO 110 MPH ARE AS FOLLOWS... VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES ARE LIKELY! STRUCTURAL DAMAGE... THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES MAY BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE COULD BE UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY RECEIVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY COULD BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES MAY INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING... GUTTERS...AND BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS MAY FAIL. PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS POSSIBLE AT INDUSTRI