** WTUS84 KBRO 220605 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-220915- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 105 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES AND HIDALGO COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 898 MILLIBARS MAKING HURRICANE RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. RITA WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 1 AM CDT...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS BEGINNING TONIGHT. BEACHES AND ACCESS ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLOODED EVEN DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES INTO THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 AM CDT. $$ BC ** WTUS84 KLCH 220612 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-221100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 110 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHT FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CAMERON PARISH...THE CAMERON PARISH OEP HAS ISSUED AN EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH...INCLUDING GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ORDERED FOR SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK. MCNEESE STATE UNIVERSITY HAS CANCELLED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE SATURDAY FOOTBALL GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED. JEFFERSON COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF SABINE PASS WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THURSDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY. ALSO...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ORANGE COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO 7 1/2 FEET AT PORT ARTHUR TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN CAMERON PARISH AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN DOWN. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY HEAVY RAINBAND TRAINS OVER THE SAME LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 500 A.M. $$ MARCOTTE ** WTCA43 TJSJ 220626 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA CATEGORIA CINCO MANTIENE SU FORTALEZA SOBRE LA PARTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PODRIA REQUERIRSE UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN AMBOS LADOS DE LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN...DESDE EL ESTE DE CAMERON HASTA GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE RIO SAN FERNANDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILACNIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DEL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.6 OESTE O COMO A 540 MILLAS...870 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 645 MILLAS...1040 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION UN POCO MAYOR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMES DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 175 MPH...280 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS...295 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR EL AVION CAZAHURACANES ES DE 898 MILIBARAS...26.52 PULGADAS. ESTO HACE DE RITA EL TERCER HURACAN MAS INTENSO EN TERMINOS DE LA PRESION EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE CERCA DE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 4 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS LLUVIAS FUERTES ASOCIADAS CON RITA COMIENCEN A AFECTAR LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL OESTE Y EL CENTRO DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE HASTA EL VIERNES. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LA COSTA CENTRAL HASTA LA PARTE ALTA DE LA COSTA DE TEXAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO...EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA...CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SERAN POSIBLES SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...Y EL CENTRO Y ESTE DE OKLAHOMA DURANTE SABADO Y EL DOMINGO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM CDT...24.8 NORTE...87.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...175 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...898 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR: FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS84 KCRP 220630 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ231>234-241>247-221000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 130 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND MID COAST REGION TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 650 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH. RITA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN TO NEAR 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT O'CONNOR. THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE...CALHOUN...REFUGIO... ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO...NUECES...AND KLEBERG. THE CITY MANAGER OF CORPUS CHRISTI WOULD LIKE FOR THE CITY TO BE EVACUATED BY FRIDAY AT NOON. FOR GOLIAD COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE DECLARED AT 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. ALL RESIDENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT CLOSINGS... ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS FROM THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND VICTORIA. CLASSES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI...DEL MAR COLLEGE...COASTAL BEND COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON IN VICTORIA. THE COMMANDER OF NAVY REGION SOUTH HAS ORDERED EVACUATION OF NAVAL STATION INGLESIDE...AND NAVAL AIR STATIONS CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY LATER TODAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES...NEAR THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO FLOOD BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING. $$ RFM ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 20.0N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTIN20 DEMS 220640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-09-2003 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL , NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 26.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 20.0N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 117.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.5N 114.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 20.5N 110.6E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 25.2N 144.3E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 28.3N 139.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 240600UTC 31.8N 140.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 250600UTC 35.0N 145.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 965 HPA AT 25.2N 144.3E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 26.5N 141.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 28.3N 139.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 31.8N 140.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 35.0N 145.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 25.2N 144.2E 970HPA 35M/S P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 27.6N 138.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 30.0N 135.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 32.4N 133.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.1N 119.9E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.6N 116.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 20.9N 112.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 20.8N 108.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 20.1N 119.9E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTH 220NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 20.6N 116.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 240600UTC 20.9N 112.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 250600UTC 20.8N 108.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 220600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 220600UTC 25.2N 144.3E MOVEMENT WNW 15KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230600UTC 28.4N 139.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT 48HR POSITION 240600UTC 32.1N 139.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT 72HR POSITION 250600UTC 35.8N 144.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 220600 UTC. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUAL LY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 25.2N 144.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 27.6N 138.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 30.0N 135.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 32.4N 133.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220700 UTC 00HR 20.0N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 220745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 220745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 220745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTNT42 KNHC 220829 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 PHILIPPE REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN SCATTERED CLUSTERS NEAR/AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. SHEARING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N 62W HAVE BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SQUEEZED INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS...CREATING AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIELD OVER PHILIPPE THAT WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER I SEE NO SIGN OF THIS HAPPENING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY THEREAFTER. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT...GIVEN ITS SOMEWHAT SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE...THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN AS A HYBRID-TYPE OF CYCLONE. ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION BY DAY 5. THE CENTER CANNOT BE IDENTIFIED WITH GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND I HAVE BASED THE LOCATION PRIMARILY ON A POOR FIX USING AN AMSU-B IMAGE. A RECENT AMSR-E IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE LOCATED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THIS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 350/10. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME GLOBAL MODELS...E.G. THE GFS... INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A PIECE OF PHILIPPE'S VORTICITY WILL BE LEFT BEHIND IN THE SUBTROPICS. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 23.3N 57.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 57.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 28.1N 59.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 60.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 32.5N 59.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 38.5N 41.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 220830 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0900Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 57.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 57.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.5N 57.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.1N 59.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 32.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 38.5N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 57.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 220830 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED PHILIPPE CONTINUES NORTHWARD... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES... 840 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 220831 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.1N 59.0W 44 X X X 44 32.5N 59.0W X 12 6 2 20 30.5N 60.0W 8 20 X X 28 BERMUDA X 2 5 1 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 220832 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.1N 91.1W 42 X X X 42 FREEPORT TX X 10 10 2 22 27.2N 92.8W 19 10 X X 29 PORT O CONNOR TX X 8 10 2 20 28.8N 94.3W X 16 7 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 4 9 2 15 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X 3 4 2 9 MOBILE AL X X 2 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X 1 1 2 4 GULFPORT MS X 1 4 4 9 GULF 28N 89W 11 3 1 1 16 BURAS LA 1 6 4 2 13 GULF 28N 91W 17 6 1 X 24 NEW ORLEANS LA X 4 7 2 13 GULF 28N 93W 8 17 1 X 26 NEW IBERIA LA X 7 8 3 18 GULF 28N 95W 1 17 4 1 23 PORT ARTHUR TX X 7 11 3 21 GULF 27N 96W X 13 4 1 18 GALVESTON TX X 11 9 2 22 GULF 25N 96W X 5 2 2 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI C FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT D FROM 1AM SAT TO 1AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 220832 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z THU SEP 22 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 88.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 897 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 88.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.3N 89.3W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.2N 92.8W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.8N 94.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 34.1N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 34.5N 94.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 220832 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES... 830 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 615 MILES... 990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM REPORTS BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.9 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 220833 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM 0251Z SHOWED SOME VECTORS NEAR 35 KT...SO THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. MAX STILL HAS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATERS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. IF NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION RETURN TO THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. MAX HAS TURNED TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING...AND INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ILL-DEFINED. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CALL FOR A SLOW...BUT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF...MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND DAY 3...THERE IS MUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...AND THE LACK OF DEFINITIVE STEERING FEATURES...THE SYSTEM IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 3-5...AS IN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECASTS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 21.7N 121.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.6N 122.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 123.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1800Z 21.1N 124.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.7N 124.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 220833 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0900Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.6N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.4N 123.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.1N 124.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 124.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220800 UTC 00HR 20.0N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 220836 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADO CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.2 OESTE O COMO A 520 MILLAS...840 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS CONDICIONES PERMANECEN DESFAVORABLES PARA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...23.3 NORTE...57.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPZ41 KNHC 220842 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IMPROVED VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES. THE GFDL NOW SUGGESTS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...IF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED MORE TOWARD THE STRENGTHENING GFDL SOLUTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATE THAT KENNETH HAS...PERHAPS TEMPORARILY...INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED...280/8. KENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LAYER FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GATHERED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REFLECT A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT...INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND HEDGES TOWARD THE LATTER CLUSTER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.2N 135.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 136.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 15.7N 136.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.8N 137.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 220842 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 135.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 135.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 136.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.7N 136.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.8N 137.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 135.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 220843 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 IF RITA HAS NOT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY CLOSE TO DOING SO. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 897 MB...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE PAST 8 HR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 165 KT IN THE NE EYEWALL...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 161 KT OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A INCREASINGLY STRONG OUTER WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS LIKELY THE START OF A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE END OF THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. BASED ON ALL OF THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 150 KT. RITA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RITA TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN THE SABINE RIVER AND MATAGORDA TEXAS IN 48-60 HR...WITH A NET EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO THE EFFECT OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO. SECOND...THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 12 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST OF RITA...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLE MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING... ESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR. SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 24.9N 88.0W 150 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 25.3N 89.3W 150 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 26.1N 91.1W 145 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 27.2N 92.8W 140 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 28.8N 94.3W 130 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/0600Z 34.1N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 220845 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z THU SEP 22 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 147.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 95SE 85SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 110SE 95SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 147.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 147.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.8N 148.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 85SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.1N 149.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.8N 150.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 80NE 75SE 65SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.9N 151.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.7N 154.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 55NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 37.0N 154.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 42.5N 150.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 147.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 220847 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST WED SEP 21 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.7 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES EAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU... OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...19.0 N...147.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER HOUSTON $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220952ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 120.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 120.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.4N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.6N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.6N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.6N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.6N 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.2N 106.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 19.9N 102.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 120.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED SOUTH OF THE LLCC. OF SIGNIFICANCE, THE POSITION OF THE LLCC WAS REVEALED TO BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 220855 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CORRECTED BREAKPOINTS IN TROPICAL STORM WATCH SECTION... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES... 830 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 615 MILES... 990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM REPORTS BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.9 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 220856 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z THU SEP 22 2005 ...CORRECTED BREAKPOINTS IN TROPICAL STORM WATCH SECTION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 88.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 897 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 88.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.3N 89.3W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.2N 92.8W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.8N 94.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 34.1N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 34.5N 94.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 220856 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM EDT JUEVES 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO RITA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A TRAVES DE LA PARTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN FUE EXTENDIDA HACIA EL ESTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LOUISIANA HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HASTA INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PODRIA SER REQUERIDO PARA PORCIONES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...SE PUSO EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SURESTE DE LOUISIANA DESDE EL ESTE DE MORGAN CITY HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN AMBOS LADOS DE LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN...DESDE EL ESTE DE CAMERON HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE RIO SAN FERNANDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DEL POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.0 OESTE O COMO A 515 MILLAS...830 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 615 MILLAS...990 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMES DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 175 MPH...280 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE RITA UN POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS...295 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA POR INFORMES DEL AVION CAZAHURACANES ES DE 897 MILIBARAS...26.49 PULGADAS. ESTO HACE DE RITA EL TERCER HURACAN MAS INTENSO EN TERMINOS DE LA PRESION EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO. EL OLEAJE ESTA ACTUALMENTE CERCA DE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. EL OLEAJE EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARA HASTA 3 A 4 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES OLAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LOS RESIDENTES PODRIAN EXPERIMENTAR ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS LLUVIAS FUERTES ASOCIADAS CON RITA COMIENCEN A AFECTAR LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL OESTE Y CENTRALES DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE ESTA NOCHE HASTA EL VIERNES. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS DESDE LA COSTA CENTRAL DE TEXAS HASTA EL SUROESTE DE LOUISIANA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA A TRAVES DEL SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO...EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA...CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SERAN POSIBLES SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...Y EL CENTRO Y ESTE DE OKLAHOMA DURANTE SABADO Y EL DOMINGO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...24.9 NORTE...88.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...175 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...897 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220951ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 144.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 144.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.8N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 29.5N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 31.3N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 33.6N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 35.7N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.1N 153.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 143.6E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TY 18W HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST TO RECEDE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN WHICH WILL CREATE AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MM5 ARE IN AGREE- MENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT83 KNHC 220859 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC113-GMZ455-475-221500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1018.050922T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ LAC023-TXC007-039-057-071-167-239-245-261-273-321-355-361-391-409- 489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-235-250-255-270-275-330-335-350-355- 370-375-450-470-221500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W $$ LAC075-GMZ555-575-221500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050922T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W $$ TXC061-221500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ LAC045-101-221500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W $$ LAC051-057-109-GMZ550-570-221500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050922T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W $$ LAC023-113-GMZ455-475-221500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTUS84 KBRO 220902 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-221215- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 400 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES AND HIDALGO COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 AM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 897 MILLIBARS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS BEGINNING TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 AM CDT. $$ BC ** WTPA43 PHFO 220917 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARDS 330 DEG AT 7 KT. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY...SINCE JOVA LOST ITS DISTINCT EYE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEFORE THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE. FORTUNATELY..AMSU AND SSMI MICROWAVE PASSES WERE AVAILABLE ON THE NRL WEB SITE AT 0326 UTC AND 0425 UTC... RESPECTIVELY. THE 0600 UTC POSITION WAS DETERMINED USING THESE MICROWAVE POSITIONS AND THE POSITION ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL OF THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO REFLECTED THE FACT THAT JOVA LOST ITS EYE. AS A RESULT THE INTENSITY OF JOVA WAS DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS THE LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS WEAKENING. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSES SUPPLIED BY THE UW/CIMSS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS WAS AN EFFORT TO MOVE THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS...GUNA AND CONU. AFTER 96 HOURS...THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT TO INDICATE THAT JOVA WILL LIKELY BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BECOMES A PART OF A MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE VERY HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE DECREASED TO BETTER AGREE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS. THESE ARE ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5...JOVA WILL LIKELY GAIN NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED. FORECASTER HOUSTON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.0N 147.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 19.8N 148.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.1N 149.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 22.8N 150.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 151.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 30.7N 154.3W 35 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 37.0N 154.2W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/0600Z 42.5N 150.2W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220900 UTC 00HR 20.0N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPN34 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220935ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 016 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 121.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 121.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.6N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.4N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.1N 124.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.7N 124.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 20.0N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 220600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 13 AT 0600 22 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SIX HECTOPSCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 230600 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 240600 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AT 250600 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTUS84 KCRP 220936 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ231>234-241>247-221300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 436 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE RITA NOW MOVING MORE WEST NORTHWEST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH INCLUDES KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND MID COAST REGION TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. RITA CONTINUES IS NOW MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT O'CONNOR. THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDED WITHIN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION AREA ARE...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO...NUECES...AND KLEBERG. THE CITY MANAGER OF CORPUS CHRISTI WOULD LIKE FOR THE CITY TO BE EVACUATED BY FRIDAY AT NOON. FOR GOLIAD COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DECLARED AT 10 AM THIS MORNING. FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. ALL RESIDENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT CLOSINGS... ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS FROM THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE CANCELED CLASSES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND VICTORIA. CLASSES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI...DEL MAR COLLEGE...COASTAL BEND COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON IN VICTORIA. THE COMMANDER OF NAVY REGION SOUTH HAS ORDERED EVACUATION OF NAVAL STATION INGLESIDE...AND NAVAL AIR STATIONS CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... CURRENTLY...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES...NEAR THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...BY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO FLOOD BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. SWIMMING OR SURFING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF RITA. IF RITA REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE FLOODING IMPACT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF COASTAL FLOODING. AREA RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT OCONNOR. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF PORT ARANSAS. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ RFM ** WTUS84 KLCH 220946 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-221200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 445 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HARDIN SOUNTY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND CALCASIEU AND JEFF DAVIS PARISHES OF SOUTHWSET LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CAMERON PARISH...THE CAMERON PARISH OEP HAS ISSUED AN EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH...INCLUDING GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ORDERED FOR SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK. MCNEESE STATE UNIVERSITY HAS CANCELLED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE SATURDAY FOOTBALL GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED. JEFFERSON COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF SABINE PASS WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THURSDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY. ALSO...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ORANGE COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO 7 1/2 FEET AT PORT ARTHUR TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN CAMERON PARISH AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN DOWN. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY HEAVY RAINBAND TRAINS OVER THE SAME LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 700 AM. $$ MARCOTTE ** WTUS84 KLIX 220947 *** HLSLIX LAZ056-059-065>070-MSZ080-082-221600- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...LOWER JEFFERSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY OCCUR INTO THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ASSUMPTION...UPPER TERREBONNE...UPPER LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER JEFFERSON PARISHES. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING THE PARISHES AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88 WEST...OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...OR HOMES WEAKENED OR DAMAGED BY RECENT HURRICANES SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WILL START TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS LATE TODAY THROUGH AND INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS MAY DEVELOP AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ...RAINFALL... SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 965 HPA AT 25.3N 143.6E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 26.8N 140.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 28.8N 139.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 25.3N 143.6E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 28.8N 139.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 240600UTC 31.8N 140.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 250600UTC 35.0N 145.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220900 UTC 00HR 20.0N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.5N 116.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.5N 113.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 20.5N 110.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPN32 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 031 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 15.1N 134.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 134.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.3N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.5N 136.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.7N 136.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.8N 137.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.0N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 16.0N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 16.0N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 20.3N 119.5E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 20.6N 115.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 20.3N 119.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 20.6N 115.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 240600UTC 20.9N 112.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 250600UTC 20.8N 108.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH RPLL 220600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 13 AT 0600 22 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND X ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 230600 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 240600 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AT 250600 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 042 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 147.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 147.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.8N 148.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.1N 149.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.8N 150.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 24.9N 151.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 30.7N 154.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 37.0N 154.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 42.5N 150.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KHGX 221034 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 235>238-221600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 534 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 175 MPH... ...HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON... AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY... MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND WHARTON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AND FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431 TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK. ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED...TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE. DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE. FOR HARRIS COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C WILL HAVE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGINNING AT 6 AM. FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES... MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B STARTED A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM. ZONE C WILL HAVE A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 6 AM. PEARLAND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-STURDY STRUCTURES...AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION. LIBERTY COUNTY... LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ASKED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE. FOR FORT BEND... VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT. FOR WHARTON...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGIN AT 6 AM. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS...AND HARRIS COUNTIES ARE CLOSED. LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE ARE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES ARE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON IS CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING WITHIN 1 FOOT OF NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING LATER TODAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND NOON FRIDAY AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE IMPACTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS 100 TO 110 MPH ARE AS FOLLOWS... VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES ARE LIKELY! STRUCTURAL DAMAGE... THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES MAY BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE COULD BE UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY RECEIVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY COULD BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES MAY INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING... GUTTERS...AND BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS MAY FAIL. PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS POSSIBLE AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS MAY BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS MAY CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES. NATURAL DAMAGE... ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES MAY UPROOT OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES SHOULD SNAP. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES MAY BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. .RAINFALL... 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. INLAND FLOODING IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 221000 UTC 00HR 20.0N 119.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 221045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 221045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 221045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTNT33 KNHC 221138 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM