** WTNT33 KNHC 220000 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN... ...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 220008 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 CORRECTED PRESSURE CONVERSION TO 26.52 INCHES ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN... ...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 211800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS84 KBRO 220017 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-220300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 715 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES AND HIDALGO COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 650 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 898 MILLIBARS MAKING HURRICANE RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. RITA WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 7 PM CDT...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. BEACHES AND ACCESS ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLOODED EVEN DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES INTO THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A STEADY INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CDT. $$ JP/JT ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC 00HR 19.5N 120.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KLCH 220021 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-220400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 720 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED 165 MILE AN HOUR WINDS. ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE EYE OF CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 580 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA OR 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVACUATION INFORMATION... CAMERON PARISH...THE CAMERON PARISH OEP HAS ISSUED AN EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH...INCLUDING GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ORDERED FOR SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK. MCNEESE STATE UNIVERSITY HAS CANCELLED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE SATURDAY FOOTBALL GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED. JEFFERSON COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF SABINE PASS WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THURSDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY. ALSO...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ORANGE COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO 7 1/2 FEET AT PORT ARTHUR TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN CAMERON PARISH AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN DOWN. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1 INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY HEAVY RAINBAND TRAINS OVER THE SAME LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1100 PM. $$ WILEY ** WTCA43 TJSJ 220023 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN RITA...CATEGORIA CINCO... CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE... ...ES EL TERCER HURACAN MAS INTENSO EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO EN LA HISTORIA... SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL ESTE DE CAMERON HASTA GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT MASFIELD HASTA BROWNSVILLE. EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE RIO SAN FERNANDO HACIA EL NORTE. UNA VIGILACNIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DEL HURACAN RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.8 OESTE O COMO A 580 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 680 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 165 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN FLUCTUACIONES EN LA INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HASTA 175 MILLAS AFUERA. LA PRESION HA DECAIDO RAPIDAMENTE DURANTE EL DIA Y LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA AEREA FUE DE 898 MILIBARAS...26.52 PULGADAS. ESTO HACE DE RITA EL TERCER HURACAN MAS INTENSO EN TERMINOS DE PRESION EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO. LAS OLAS ESTAN ACTUALMENTE DENTRO DE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. LAS OLAS EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARAN HASTA 3 A 4 PIES EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON OLAS GRANDES Y LOS RESIDENTES DEBEN EXPERIMENTAR INUNDACIONES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...24.5 NORTE...86.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...165 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...898 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTORA: VAZQUEZ WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC 00HR 24.6N 146.0E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 26.5N 140.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 28.6N 135.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 31.0N 132.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC 00HR 19.5N 120.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 118.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 20.5N 115.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 20.5N 112.8E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 220000 *** WARNING 220000. WARNING VALID 230000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA AT 24.6N 146.0E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 27.1N 140.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 30.3N 139.7E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 33.3N 141.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 220000UTC 24.6N 146.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230000UTC 27.1N 140.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 240000UTC 30.3N 139.7E 160NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 250000UTC 33.3N 141.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 220000 *** WARNING 220000. WARNING VALID 230000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 19.2N 120.4E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 20.5N 117.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 20.6N 114.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 20.6N 111.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 220000UTC 19.2N 120.4E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTH 220NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 230000UTC 20.5N 117.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 240000UTC 20.6N 114.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 250000UTC 20.6N 111.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUAL LY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 220000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 220000UTC 19.2N 120.4E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230000UTC 20.0N 117.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 240000UTC 20.2N 114.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 250000UTC 20.1N 111.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 220145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230000 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 220145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230000 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTNT42 KNHC 220227 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 PHILIPPE REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO ITS WEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. IF THE SHEARING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE PERSISTS...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND COULD EVEN DISSIPATE. HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE. IF THAT WERE TO VERIFY...THE SYSTEM COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE HYBRID-TYPE OF STRENGTHENING IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE. INDEED...THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 4-5 DAYS. THE CENTER IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND WITHOUT VISIBLE IMAGES...SO THE INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ASSIST RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES...WITH ACCELERATION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A PORTION OF PHILIPPE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5...ONLY BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 22.4N 57.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 26.6N 58.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 29.2N 58.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 31.7N 59.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 35.5N 55.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 38.5N 49.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 42.0N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 220227 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 57.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 57.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.6N 58.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.2N 58.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.7N 59.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 38.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 42.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 220227 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z THU SEP 22 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 897 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..275NE 200SE 200SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 87.2W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.9N 88.7W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.0N 96.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 87.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 220228 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWARD... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES... 775 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.4 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 220228 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 90.5W 43 X X X 43 FREEPORT TX X 3 13 3 19 26.3N 92.4W 20 9 1 X 30 PORT O CONNOR TX X 3 12 4 19 27.5N 94.2W 1 17 5 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 1 11 4 16 MMSO 238N 982W X X 1 3 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X 2 8 3 13 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 1 X 3 4 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 89W 7 5 1 1 14 GULFPORT MS X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 91W 7 12 1 1 21 BURAS LA X 3 5 3 11 GULF 28N 93W 2 17 3 1 23 NEW ORLEANS LA X 2 4 5 11 GULF 28N 95W X 11 9 2 22 NEW IBERIA LA X 2 8 5 15 GULF 27N 96W X 9 9 2 20 PORT ARTHUR TX X 2 10 5 17 GULF 25N 96W X 7 5 2 14 GALVESTON TX X 3 12 4 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI C FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI D FROM 7PM FRI TO 7PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 220228 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.6N 58.0W 41 1 X X 42 31.7N 59.3W X 13 6 2 21 29.2N 58.8W 10 16 1 X 27 BERMUDA X X 4 4 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 220230 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0300Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.8N 122.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.6N 123.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 123.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.0N 124.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 220230 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. MAX'S DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE NUMBERED...AS A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED. MAX IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED TOMORROW MORNING. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME QUITE WEAK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 290/3. A LARGE TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE QUITE WEAK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MAX WEAKENS...IT IS RESPONDING MAINLY TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...AND THERE IS ONLY AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MAINLY WESTWARD DRIFT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MOTION THEREAFTER. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 21.8N 121.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 21.8N 122.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.6N 123.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1200Z 21.3N 123.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 124.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 220231 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADO MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.0 OESTE O COMO A 480 MILLAS...775 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE PRONOSTICA UN CAMBIO SIGNIFICATIVO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...22.4 NORTE...57.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT83 KNHC 220236 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-TXC007-039-057-071-167-239-245-261-273-321-355-361-391-409- 489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-235-250-255-270-275-330-335-350-355- 370-375-450-470-220900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W $$ TXC061-220900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ LAC045-051-057-101-109-113-GMZ455-475-550-570-220900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTPZ41 KNHC 220237 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIAL EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE BANDING. APPARENTLY...SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS CAUSING THIS CLOUD PATTERN. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT...BASED ON THE DVORAK T- NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 10 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM..AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER... THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING WITHIN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH THE TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. KENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDN. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.9N 133.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.2N 134.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.5N 135.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 15.7N 136.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 137.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 140.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220200 UTC 00HR 19.6N 120.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 220238 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z THU SEP 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 133.8W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 133.8W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 133.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 134.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 135.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.7N 136.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 137.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 220241 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES... 915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES... 1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 24 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 220245 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST WED SEP 21 2005 SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT HURRICANE JOVA IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO CLOUD OVER AS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CENTER BEGINS TO ELONGATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KT BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM CPHC...JTWC AND GWC. SAB DERIVED A CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK NUMBER OF 5.0. HALF OF THESE AGENCIES IDENTIFIED A STRUCTURAL WEAKENING TREND...WITH JTWC AND SAB DERIVING A FINAL DVORAK T NUMBER OF 4.5. THE LONG-AWAITED WEAKENING OF JOVA DUE TO SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN. MODEL ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY PACKED...WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU CLUSTER THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE ENTIRE TRACK ALSO LIES BETWEEN BAMD AND BAMM GUIDANCE TO THE RIGHT AND LEFT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH BAMS REPRESENTING THE LEFT OUTLIER. LONG RANGE POSITION AT 120 HOURS ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE. IT SEEMS THAT FEW...IF ANY...FORECAST TRACK CHANGES ARE NEEDED...SO THE CURRENT TRACK IS MOSTLY CONSTRUCTED FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...INTERPOLATED FORWARD BY SIX HOURS. SINCE SHEARING EFFECTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEGUN...JOVA IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...DECREASING TO 40 KT AT 120 HOURS DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. JOVA MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FASTER THAN DEPICTED HERE IF UNFAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOWN IN LATEST GFS75 GUIDANCE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK PAN OUT. IF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND JOVA WERE TO COLLAPSE...THE SYSTEM WOULD BEGIN TO DEVIATE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AS STEERING BECOMES SHALLOW. USING THE LAST GOOD SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER JOVA...WIND RADII FOR ALL SPEEDS AND ALL FORECAST TIMES WERE REDUCED. FORECASTER POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 18.4N 147.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 19.2N 148.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 20.3N 149.1W 90 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 21.8N 150.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 23.8N 151.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 28.8N 152.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 34.9N 153.6W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 42.5N 153.9W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 220245 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0300Z THU SEP 22 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 147.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 95SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 95SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 147.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 147.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.2N 148.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.3N 149.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.8N 150.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 90SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.8N 151.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 85SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.8N 152.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 85SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 34.9N 153.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 42.5N 153.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 147.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 220245 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST WED SEP 21 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.5 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU ON THE ISLAND OF OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...18.4 N...147.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 220249 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES... 915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES... 1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220152ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 119.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 119.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.5N 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.6N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.6N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.6N 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.4N 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 19.5N 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 19.8N 103.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 119.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARN- INGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 24.8N 146.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 146.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 26.2N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.4N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 28.6N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 30.4N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 33.2N 133.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 36.6N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 40.4N 133.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 145.4E. TYPHOON 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KBRO 220302 *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-220600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES AND HIDALGO COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 897 MILLIBARS MAKING HURRICANE RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN ATLANTIC BASIN HISTORY. RITA WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 10 PM CDT...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. BEACHES AND ACCESS ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLOODED EVEN DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES INTO THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 AM CDT THURSDAY. $$ JP/JT ** WTCA43 TJSJ 220306 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA CATEGORIA CINCO CONTINUA FORTALECIENDOSE SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO CENTRAL... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. PUDIERA REQUERIRSE UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PORCIONES DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DE HURACAM EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CUALQUIER LADO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN...DESDE EL ESTE DE CAMERON HASTA GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT MASFIELD HASTA BROWNSVILLE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE RIO SAN FERNANDO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA RIO GRANDE. UNA VIGILACNIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DEL HURACAN RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE O COMO A 570 MILLAS...915 KILOMETROS... AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 670 MILLAS...1080 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CON UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION UN POCO MAS RAPIDA CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 175 MPH...280 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO POTENCIALMENTE CATASTROFICO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN FLUCTUACIONES EN LA INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HASTA 185 MILLAS...295 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 897 MILIBARAS...26.49 PULGADAS. ESTO HACE DE RITA EL TERCER HURACAN MAS INTENSO EN TERMINOS DE PRESION EN LA CUENCA DEL ATLANTICO. LAS OLAS ESTAN ACTUALMENTE CERCA DE LO NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS DE MISSISSIPPI Y LOUISIANA EN LAS AREAS AFECTADAS POR KATRINA. LAS OLAS EN ESAS AREAS AUMENTARAN HASTA 3 A 4 PIES ACOMPANADAS POR OLAS GRANDES EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LOS RESIDENTES DEBEN EXPERIMENTAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS LLUVIAS FUERTES ASOCIADAS CON RITA COMIENCEN A AFECTAR LAS AREAS COSTERAS DEL OESTE Y CENTRO DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL JUEVES EN LA NOCHE HASTA EL VIERNES. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 8 A 12 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SOBRE LA COSTA CENTRAL HASTA LA COSTA MAS ALTA DE TEXAS. LAS CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SERAN POSIBLES A TRAVES DEL AREA DE SUR DE LOUISIANA INCLUYENDO EL AREA METROPOLITANA DE NEW ORLEANS. DESPUES QUE RITA SE MUEVA SOBRE TIERRA...LA CANTIDAD DE LLUVIA TOTAL DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SERAN POSIBLES SOBRE EL ESTE DE TEXAS...Y EL CENTRO Y ESTE DE OKLAHOMA DURANTE EL SABADO Y EL DOMINGO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...24.6 NORTE...87.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...175 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...897 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTORA: VAZQUEZ WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS84 KLIX 220310 *** HLSLIX LAZ056-059-065>068-221000- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GRAND ISLE WEST TO CAMERON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...LOWER JEFFERSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREA FROM GRAND ISLE TO CAMERON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY OCCUR INTO THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ASSUMPTION...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...AND LOWER JEFFERSON PARISHES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 570 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYOUS AND COASTAL AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS TO MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FURTHER INLAND IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ALSO PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES...OR HOMES WEAKENED OR DAMAGED BY RECENT HURRICANES SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO MORE SECURE STRUCTURES IF REQUESTED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR IN WATCH AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS MAY DEVELOP AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A DEVELOPING INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM GRAND ISLE WESTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ...RAINFALL... SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 220311 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF 899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED 2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED BETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897 MB PRESSURE IS 160 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. RITA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A LARGE WOBBLE AND SLOWED TO A 285/06 KT MOTION THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...SUCH MOTION CHANGES...WHICH ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN REORGANIZES...ARE CONSIDERED TEMPORARY AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE 18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DOING THEIR USUAL AFTERNOON EASTWARD SHIFT. THOSE MODELS NOW BRING RITA ACROSS THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST WITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH 30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE EYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY MAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME STEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE... INTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A HURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 24.6N 87.2W 150 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 24.9N 88.7W 155 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 90.5W 150 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 26.3N 92.4W 145 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.2W 135 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 96.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/0000Z 35.0N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIAPTING INLAND $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220345ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 030 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 133.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 133.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.2N 134.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.5N 135.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.6N 136.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 15.7N 136.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 15.9N 137.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 16.0N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN34 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220335ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 015 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 121.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 121.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 21.8N 122.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.6N 123.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.3N 123.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220300 UTC 00HR 19.7N 120.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KHGX 220336 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-221000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1100 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 175 MPH... ...HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON... JACKSON...MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA... LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...WHARTON...COLORADO...AUSTIN... WALLER...WASHINGTON...GRIMES...MONTGOMERY...WALKER...MADISON... BRAZOS...AND BURLESON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 59 TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431 TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 6 PM. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK. ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY WITH ALL OF THE VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN IS IMPLEMENTED AT 6 PM... TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE...SO DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE. AS OF 6 PM...FOR HARRIS COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C WILL HAVE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGINNING AT 6 AM TOMORROW. AS OF 6 PM FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B WILL HAVE A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM TOMORROW. ZONE C WILL HAVE A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 6 AM TOMORROW. PEARLAND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON- STURDY STRUCTURES AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION NEEDS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. LIBERTY COUNTY... LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ASKED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE. FOR FORT BEND... VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT. FOR WHARTON...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGIN AT 6 AM. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS AND HARRIS COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSED. LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS BE CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON WILL BE CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING ON THURSDAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT FRI 4.4 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST THE EYE SHOULD BE NEARING THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA SHORES. DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM COULD LEAD TO THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BE FELT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH TO NEAR BURLESON COUNTY BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. .RAINFALL... 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM CDT. $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0517 SAOLA (0517) 970 HPA AT 25.0N 145.3E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 27.5N 140.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 25.0N 145.3E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 27.5N 140.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 240000UTC 30.3N 139.7E 160NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 250000UTC 33.3N 141.8E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH RPMM 220000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 12 AT 0000 22 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AR 230000 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST AT 240000 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE EAST AT 250000 TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTUS84 KCRP 220400 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ231>234-241>247-220900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1100 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND MID COAST REGION THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 670 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... UPDATED FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION INFORMATION IN ADDITION...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT O'CONNOR. THE COUNTIES ARE...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO...NUECES...AND KLEBERG. THE CITY MANAGER OF CORPUS CHRISTI WOULD LIKE FOR THE CITY TO BE EVACUATED BY FRIDAY AT NOON. FOR GOLIAD COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE DECLARED AT 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN EFFECT. ALL RESIDENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. .SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT CLOSINGS... ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS FROM THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND VICTORIA. CLASSES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI...DEL MAR COLLEGE...COASTAL BEND COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON IN VICTORIA. THE COMMANDER OF NAVY REGION SOUTH HAS ORDERED EVACUATION OF NAVAL STATION INGLESIDE AND NAVAL AIR STATIONS CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY THURSDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES...NEAR THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO FLOOD BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF RITA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 400 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING. $$ 87 ** WTJP32 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 19.8N 120.1E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 20.6N 116.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 19.8N 120.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM SOUTH 220NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 20.6N 116.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 240000UTC 20.6N 114.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 250000UTC 20.6N 111.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220335ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/220345ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 041 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 147.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 147.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.2N 148.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.3N 149.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.8N 150.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.8N 151.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 28.8N 152.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 34.9N 153.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 42.5N 153.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220400 UTC 00HR 19.8N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KLCH 220457 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-220700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 950 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ON RECORD AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 175 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE EYE OF CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA OR 565 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CAMERON PARISH...THE CAMERON PARISH OEP HAS ISSUED AN EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH...INCLUDING GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ORDERED FOR SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK. MCNEESE STATE UNIVERSITY HAS CANCELLED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THE SATURDAY FOOTBALL GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED. JEFFERSON COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF SABINE PASS WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THURSDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY. ALSO...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ORANGE COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO 7 1/2 FEET AT PORT ARTHUR TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN CAMERON PARISH AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN DOWN. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY HEAVY RAINBAND TRAINS OVER THE SAME LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 0200 A.M. $$ WILEY ** WTSS20 VHHH 220445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 220445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 220300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 220530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 147.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2005 18.1N 147.1W STRONG 12UTC 22.09.2005 18.9N 148.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 20.0N 149.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 20.8N 150.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 22.5N 152.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 25.0N 155.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 28.3N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 33.2N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 37.0N 157.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 40.4N 153.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 41.5N 150.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 134.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2005 14.5N 134.1W MODERATE 12UTC 22.09.2005 14.7N 134.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.3N 135.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.4N 137.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 15.4N 138.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 15.4N 139.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 15.4N 140.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 15.5N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 15.5N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 14.5N 144.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 14.5N 145.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 14.5N 147.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 14.5N 149.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM MAX ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 121.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.8N 121.4W MODERATE 12UTC 22.09.2005 21.5N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 21.3N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 20.7N 123.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 20.2N 123.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.7N 107.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2005 12.7N 107.1W WEAK 12UTC 22.09.2005 13.7N 107.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 13.7N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 14.5N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 15.4N 108.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.4N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 16.5N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 16.7N 108.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 17.2N 108.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 17.9N 110.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 19.0N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 19.7N 111.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2005 19.8N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 56.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.5N 56.8W MODERATE 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.8N 57.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 27.2N 59.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 30.3N 60.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 32.1N 59.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 34.5N 57.4W MODERATE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 00UTC 25.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL HURRICANE RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 86.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2005 24.7N 86.9W INTENSE 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.7N 88.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 25.5N 89.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 26.2N 91.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 27.2N 92.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 28.9N 94.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 31.4N 93.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 34.0N 93.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 34.6N 91.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 12.0N 31.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2005 12.0N 31.4W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2005 12.9N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 13.7N 35.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 14.8N 37.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 15.5N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 15.5N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2005 16.6N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2005 18.2N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220530 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 220500 UTC 00HR 19.9N 120.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 220556 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...CATEGORY FIVE RITA MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES... 870 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 645 MILES... 1040 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHT FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 898 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$