** WTNT63 KNHC 211807 *** TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 24.2N 147.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 26.3N 142.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 231800UTC 28.8N 139.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 241800UTC 32.0N 140.0E 290NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 980 HPA AT 24.2N 147.3E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 26.3N 142.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 28.8N 139.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 32.0N 140.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 19.3N 120.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.1N 118.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.6N 116.0E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 20.6N 113.1E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 24.2N 147.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.6N 142.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 27.1N 137.8E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 28.2N 133.8E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 19.1N 121.2E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 20.0N 119.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 20.4N 117.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 20.7N 114.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 19.1N 121.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 20.0N 119.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 231800UTC 20.4N 117.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 241800UTC 20.7N 114.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT63 KNHC 211955 *** TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 VHHH 211945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 211800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221800 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTNT22 KNHC 212034 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 2100Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 57.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 57.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.3N 57.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.8N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 38.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 42.5N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 212035 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.3N 57.9W 39 X X X 39 30.5N 59.0W X 12 9 1 22 27.8N 58.4W 11 15 1 X 27 BERMUDA X X 3 4 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 212035 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 420 MILES... 670 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N... 57.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 212035 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 360/8. THE TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD CURRENT MOTION. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS IS NOW THE ONLY MODEL THAT SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 120 HOURS...BUT IT MAY HAPPEN SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO DECREASE MUCH...ONE WOULD THINK THAT PHILIPPE WOULD REMAIN STEADY STATE OR CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE INTERACTION BETWEEN PHILLIPE AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 22N62W COULD TRANSITION THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN 24-36 HOUR WITH AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST THE SHEAR BECOMES MUCH STRONGER AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE BECOMING FINALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 21.2N 57.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 22.8N 57.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 25.3N 57.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 27.8N 58.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 59.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 49.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 42.5N 41.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 212037 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT... WITH THE GFS SHOWING NO FURTHER WESTWARD MOTION AND THEN A NORTHEASTWARD PATH AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF MAX. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP KENNETH MOVING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH MAX LOSING DEEP CONVECTION AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LEANS TOWARD THE UKMET/NOGAPS SCENARIO...ALBEIT WITH A SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESSION. MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH ALTHOUGH LIMITED IS STILL SHOWING SOME BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT 50 KT VECTOR AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS MODEL IS DIAGNOSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE GFS FIELDS...ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE INTENSIFICATION FACTOR IS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A SLOW DECAY IS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH WAS BASED ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 14.9N 133.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.6N 135.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.8N 136.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 212037 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 133.9W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 133.9W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 133.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.6N 135.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.8N 136.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 133.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 212038 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IS VANISHING...AND SO THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON MAX'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND CONTINUED DECAY OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED. IF NO DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS...MAX COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/4. 12Z MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX AND BRING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS PRODUCES A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND LATE AS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES OVERSWEEP THE AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 21.7N 121.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 21.7N 121.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.7N 122.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 123.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 212039 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 2100Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.7N 121.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.7N 122.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 123.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 212039 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS ADENTRO DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.1 OESTE O COMO A 420 MILLAS...620 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...21.2 NORTE...57.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT83 KNHC 212051 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 .HURRICANE RITA LAC023-TXC007-039-057-071-167-239-245-261-273-321-355-361-391-409- 489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-230-235-250-255-270-275-330-335-350-355- 370-375-450-470-220300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1018.050921T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W $$ TXC061-220300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1018.050921T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ LAC045-051-057-101-109-113-GMZ455-475-550-570-220300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1018.050921T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP... ** WTPA43 PHFO 212051 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST WED SEP 21 2005 THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE JOVA ON THE OLD TRACK TRAJECTORY...BUT THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEP JOVA NO FARTHER NORTH THAN 42N AT 120 HOURS. GUNA AND CONU KEEP JOVA SOUTH OF 37N AT 120 HOURS. JOVA WILL GRADUALLY SPEED UP TO 18 KT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TRACK WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HURRICANE JOVA RETAINS ITS 100 KT INITIAL STRENGTH BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM CPHC...JTWC...GWC AND SAB. INITIAL MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT. IN SPITE OF THE RESILIENCE SHOWN WITH OBSERVED JOVA INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE GFDL...UKMI AND AVNI INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH THE FORECAST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACKS SUGGESTED BY THESE MODELS. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT JOVA COULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH AT 103 KT...AS DEPICTED BY GFDI...OR 97 KT...AS DEPICTED BY UKMI...AT 120 HOURS GIVEN FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 KT OR GREATER AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 22 TO 24C DEGREE RANGE. WITH THE LATEST GFS75 DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEPICTIONS IN MIND...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN MORE RAPIDLY TO 50 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS. JOVA WOULD BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LESS THAN FORECAST ALONG ITS PROJECTED TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HURRICANE JOVA TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH NORTHWEST...PASSING ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FORECASTER POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 17.9N 147.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 18.6N 147.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 19.6N 148.9W 95 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.9N 149.8W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 22.7N 150.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 27.4N 152.7W 70 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 33.1N 153.7W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 40.4N 154.1W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 212051 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 2100Z WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 147.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 147.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 147.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.6N 147.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT...155NE 130SE 120SW 145NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.6N 148.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 115SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.9N 149.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.7N 150.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 105SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.4N 152.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 85SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.1N 153.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.4N 154.1W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 147.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 212051 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST WED SEP 21 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.2 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HURRICANE JOVA IS STILL A VERY POWERFUL STORM. INTERESTS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...17.9 N...147.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 212052 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT. SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 24.4N 86.8W 145 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W 145 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.6W 145 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 92.7W 135 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 97.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1800Z 36.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 212052 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 2100Z WED SEP 21 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 86.8W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 175SE 150SW 275NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 86.8W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.6W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 92.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 36.0N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 86.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 212052 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.1 OESTE O COMO A 420 MILLAS...620 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.59 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...21.2 NORTE...57.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT33 KNHC 212053 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA REACHES 165 MPH WINDS...BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2005 SEASON... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 212054 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.2N 90.6W 42 X X X 42 GALVESTON TX X 2 11 5 18 26.0N 92.7W 17 13 X X 30 FREEPORT TX X 2 12 4 18 27.0N 94.5W 1 18 4 1 24 PORT O CONNOR TX X 2 12 4 18 MMSO 238N 982W X X 3 3 6 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 1 11 5 17 MMTM 222N 979W X X 1 1 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X 4 8 3 15 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 2 3 MOBILE AL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W 4 6 1 1 12 GULFPORT MS X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 91W 5 11 2 1 19 BURAS LA X 2 4 3 9 GULF 28N 93W 1 16 3 2 22 NEW ORLEANS LA X 1 4 5 10 GULF 28N 95W X 9 9 3 21 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 7 5 13 GULF 27N 96W X 9 9 2 20 PORT ARTHUR TX X 1 8 6 15 GULF 25N 96W X 10 5 1 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI C FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI D FROM 1PM FRI TO 1PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 212113 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-220000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 415 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 685 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 914 MILLIBARS. RITA WILL MOVE WEST INTO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. BEACHES AND ACCESS ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLOODED EVEN DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES INTO THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE SUSTAINED AT 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A STEADY INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 PM CDT. $$ KV/AP/JH ** WTUS84 KBRO 212116 CCA *** HLSBRO TXZ250-251-253>257-220000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 415 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: KENEDY...WILLACY...CAMERON...BROOKS...AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 685 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 914 MILLIBARS. RITA WILL MOVE WEST INTO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SWELL ACTION GENERATED BY RITA AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL INUNDATE THE BEACHES AND DUNES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING FORCED INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. BEACHES AND ACCESS ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLOODED EVEN DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLES INTO THE WEEKEND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH RITA ARE SUSTAINED AT 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A STEADY INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SWELL ACTION AND HEAVY SURF BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT REGARDING RITA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 PM CDT. $$ KV/AP/JH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 212100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 212100 UTC 00HR 19.4N 120.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 118.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTUS84 KLCH 212129 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-220100- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 427 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA REACHES 165 MPH WINDS BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE EYE OF CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA OR 575 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVACUATION INFORMATION... CAMERON PARISH...THE CAMERON PARISH OEP HAS ISSUED AN EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH...INCLUDING GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ORDERED FOR SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK. JEFFERSON COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF SABINE PASS WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THURSDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY. ALSO...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ORANGE COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO 7 1/2 FEET AT PORT ARTHUR TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN CAMERON PARISH AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN DOWN. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1 INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY HEAVY RAINBAND TRAINS OVER THE SAME LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 800 PM. $$ RUA ** WTCA43 TJSJ 212137 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA ALCANZA VIENTOS DE 165 MPH...SE CONVIERTE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA CINCO EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO...EL SEGUNDO DE LA TEMPORADA DEL 2005... A LAS 4 PM...CDT...2100Z...SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HASTA CAMERON LOUISIANA. A LAS 4 PM EDT...2100Z...SE HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL ESTE DE CAMERON HASTA GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA Y DESDE EL SUR DE PORT MASFIELD HASTA BROWNSVILLE. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE RIO SAN FERNANDO HACIA EL NORTE. UNA VIGILACNIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES LAS CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DEL HURACAN RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.6 OESTE O COMO A 600 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE GALVESTON TEXAS Y COMO A 700 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MOH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 165 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN FLUCTUACIONES EN LA INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HASTA 175 MILLAS AFUERA. LA PRESION HA DECAIDO RAPIDAMENTE DURANTE EL DIA Y LOS ULTIMOS REPORTES DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA AEREA FUE DE 914 MILIBARAS...26.99 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...24.4 NORTE...86.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...165 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...914 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTORA VAZQUEZ WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS84 KCRP 212137 *** HLSCRP TXZ231>234-241>247-220400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 430 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RITA NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND MID COAST REGION THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THURSDAY EVENING. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR NUECES COUNTY...THE MAYOR OF PORT ARANSAS HAS DECLARED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PORT ARANSAS WITH RESIDENTS EXPECTED TO BE EVACUATED BY NOON THURSDAY. THE MAYOR OF CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF FLOUR BLUFF...MUSTANG ISLAND...NORTH PADRE ISLAND...CORPUS CHRISTI BEACH AND LOW LYING AREAS WITHIN THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR THE COUNTIES OF SAN PATRICIO...CALHOUN...REFUGIO AND ARANSAS. FOR GOLIAD COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COUNTY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE DECLARED AT 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FOR KLEBERG COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ONLY IN PLACE FOR THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. THE PARK WILL BE CLOSED ON THURSDAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. .SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT CLOSINGS... ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS FROM THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND VICTORIA. GOLIAD INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL HAVE CLASSES UNTIL 1130 AM THURSDAY AND BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI HAS CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STUDENTS BEING EVACUATED TO TEXAS A&M INTERNATIONAL IN LAREDO. CLASSES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR DEL MAR COLLEGE...COASTAL BEND COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON IN VICTORIA. THE COMMANDER OF NAVY REGION SOUTH HAS ORDERED EVACUATION OF NAVAL STATION INGLESIDE AND NAVAL AIR STATIONS CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY THURSDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES NEAR ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO FLOOD BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED AFTER TONIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM. $$ TMT ** WTJP31 RJTD 212100 *** WARNING 212100. WARNING VALID 222100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 980 HPA AT 24.4N 146.9E SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 26.6N 141.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 24.4N 146.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 26.6N 141.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 231800UTC 28.8N 139.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 241800UTC 32.0N 140.0E 290NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTNT63 KNHC 212146 *** TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD... DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN 1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPH RPLL 211800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 11 AT 1800 21 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE AT 19.1N 121.0E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 02 MPS TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 300 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23 MPS NEAR CENTER 13 MPS WITHIN 300 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221800 19.8N 119.6 E AT 231800 20.5N 117.9E AT 241800 20.7N 115.0 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 211800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 11 AT 1800 21 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILO- METERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221800 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST AT 231800 TWO ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE EAST AT 241800 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTUS84 KLIX 212156 *** HLSLIX LAZ056-059-065>068-220330- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 500 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OVER GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THE FOLLOWING PARISHES ASSUMPTION...LAFOURCHE...TERREBONNE...LOWER JEFFERSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREA FROM GRAND ISLE TO CAMERON. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... WITH WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER...MAY OCCUR INTO THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. AS HURRICANE RITE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TIDES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR IN WATCH AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND AREAS NEAR BAYOUS MAY DEVELOP AS THE TIDES INCREASE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RITA IS A DEVELOPING INTO A LARGE HURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY REACH THE COASTAL AREA FROM GRAND ISLE WESTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ...RAINFALL... SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KCRP 212207 COR *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ231>234-241>247-220400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO INCLUDE MARINE ZONES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 505 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RITA NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND MID COAST REGION THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THURSDAY EVENING. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR NUECES COUNTY...THE MAYOR OF PORT ARANSAS HAS DECLARED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PORT ARANSAS WITH RESIDENTS EXPECTED TO BE EVACUATED BY NOON THURSDAY. THE MAYOR OF CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF FLOUR BLUFF...MUSTANG ISLAND...NORTH PADRE ISLAND...CORPUS CHRISTI BEACH AND LOW LYING AREAS WITHIN THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR THE COUNTIES OF SAN PATRICIO...CALHOUN...REFUGIO AND ARANSAS. FOR GOLIAD COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COUNTY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE DECLARED AT 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. FOR KLEBERG COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ONLY IN PLACE FOR THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. THE PARK WILL BE CLOSED ON THURSDAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. .SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT CLOSINGS... ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS FROM THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND VICTORIA. GOLIAD INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL HAVE CLASSES UNTIL 1130 AM THURSDAY AND BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI HAS CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STUDENTS BEING EVACUATED TO TEXAS A&M INTERNATIONAL IN LAREDO. CLASSES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR DEL MAR COLLEGE...COASTAL BEND COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON IN VICTORIA. THE COMMANDER OF NAVY REGION SOUTH HAS ORDERED EVACUATION OF NAVAL STATION INGLESIDE AND NAVAL AIR STATIONS CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY THURSDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES NEAR ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO FLOOD BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED AFTER TONIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM. $$ TMT ** WTJP32 RJTD 212100 *** WARNING 212100. WARNING VALID 222100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 19.3N 120.8E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 20.3N 119.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 19.3N 120.8E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 20.3N 119.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 231800UTC 20.4N 117.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 241800UTC 20.7N 114.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 212200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 212200 UTC 00HR 19.4N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KHGX 212235 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-220430- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 534 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA HAS INTENSIFIED TO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 165 MPH... ...HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON... JACKSON...MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA... LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...WHARTON...COLORADO...AUSTIN... WALLER...WASHINGTON...GRIMES...MONTGOMERY...WALKER...MADISON... BRAZOS...AND BURLESON COUNTIES. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431 TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 6 PM. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK. ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY WITH ALL OF THE VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN IS IMPLEMENTED AT 6 PM... TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE...SO DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE. AT 6 PM...FOR HARRIS COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C WILL HAVE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS BEGINNING AT 6 AM THURSDAY. AT 6 PM FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B WILL HAVE A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM THURSDAY. ZONE C WILL HAVE A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 6 AM THURSDAY. ON GALVESTON ISLAND...BUSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. PEARLAND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON- STURDY STRUCTURES AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION NEEDS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. LIBERTY COUNTY... LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ASKED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE. FOR FORT BEND... VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA... MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS AND HARRIS COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSED. LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS BE CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON WILL BE CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING ON THURSDAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT FRI 4.4 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST THE EYE SHOULD BE NEARING THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA SHORES. DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM COULD LEAD TO THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BE FELT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH TO NEAR BURLESON COUNTY BY 9 AM SATURDAY. .RAINFALL... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM CDT. $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 212245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 212100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 222100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 212245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 212100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 222100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTUS84 KCRP 212319 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ231>234-241>247-220400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 609 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RITA NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF CALHOUN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...JIM WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND MID COAST REGION THURSDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THURSDAY EVENING. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... UPDATED FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR NUECES COUNTY...THE MAYOR OF PORT ARANSAS HAS DECLARED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PORT ARANSAS WITH RESIDENTS EXPECTED TO BE EVACUATED BY NOON THURSDAY. THE MAYOR OF CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS INCLUDES FLOUR BLUFF...MUSTANG ISLAND...NORTH PADRE ISLAND AND CORPUS CHRISTI BEACH. MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR THE COUNTIES OF SAN PATRICIO...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND KLEBERG. THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE PARK WILL BE CLOSED ON THURSDAY. FOR GOLIAD COUNTY...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COUNTY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE DECLARED AT 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. .SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT CLOSINGS... ALL INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS FROM THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...CALHOUN AND VICTORIA. GOLIAD INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL HAVE CLASSES UNTIL 1130 AM THURSDAY AND BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI HAS CANCELED CLASSES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STUDENTS BEING EVACUATED TO TEXAS A&M INTERNATIONAL IN LAREDO. CLASSES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR DEL MAR COLLEGE...COASTAL BEND COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON IN VICTORIA. THE COMMANDER OF NAVY REGION SOUTH HAS ORDERED EVACUATION OF NAVAL STATION INGLESIDE AND NAVAL AIR STATIONS CORPUS CHRISTI AND KINGSVILLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY THURSDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES NEAR ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO FLOOD BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED AFTER TONIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE RITA. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE NEXT HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM. $$ TMT/TE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 212300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 212300 UTC 00HR 19.4N 120.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR W 10KM/H= ** WTPN34 PHNC 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/212130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/212135ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 014 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 121.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 121.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.7N 121.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.7N 122.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.5N 123.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/212135ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/212145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 040 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 147.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 147.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.6N 147.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.6N 148.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.9N 149.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.7N 150.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 27.4N 152.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 33.1N 153.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 40.4N 154.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/212130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/212145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 029 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 133.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 133.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.3N 134.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.6N 135.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.8N 136.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.0N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 16.0N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211952ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 120.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 120.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 19.9N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.1N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.2N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.2N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.0N 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.0N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 20.1N 105.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 120.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 147.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 147.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.6N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.8N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.8N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 29.0N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.6N 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 34.6N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 38.9N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 146.9E TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT63 KNHC 212351 *** TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD... DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED... WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB. FORECASTER STEWART $$