** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 211209 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL SATELITE SUGIERE QUE RITA SE HA TORNADO EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CINCO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LOS CAYOS FLORIDA DESDE LOS CAYOS MARQUESAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS... AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 790 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA AL CENTRO DE RITA MAS ALEJADO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE SUGIEREN QUE RITA CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 135 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES AHORA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. UN AVION DE LA NOAA REVISARA LA INTENSIDAD MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HASTA 140 MILLAS AFUERA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 948 MILIBARAS...28.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EN AREA BAJO AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA EN EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN EL SUR DE FLORIDA DISMINUIRAN HOY. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE EN EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 10 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS ALTAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...85.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...948 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA43 TJSJ 211220 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EL SATELITE SUGIERE QUE RITA SE HA TORNADO EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LOS CAYOS FLORIDA DESDE LOS CAYOS MARQUESAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS... AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 790 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA AL CENTRO DE RITA MAS ALEJADO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE SUGIEREN QUE RITA CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 135 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES AHORA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. UN AVION DE LA NOAA REVISARA LA INTENSIDAD MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HASTA 140 MILLAS AFUERA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 948 MILIBARAS...28.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EN AREA BAJO AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA EN EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN EL SUR DE FLORIDA DISMINUIRAN HOY. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE EN EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 10 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS ALTAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...85.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...948 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA43 TJSJ 211220 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...CORRECCION DE CATEGORIA... ...EL SATELITE SUGIERE QUE RITA SE HA TORNADO EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LOS CAYOS FLORIDA DESDE LOS CAYOS MARQUESAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 790 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA AL CENTRO DE RITA MAS ALEJADO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE SUGIEREN QUE RITA CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 135 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES AHORA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. UN AVION DE LA NOAA REVISARA LA INTENSIDAD MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HASTA 140 MILLAS AFUERA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 948 MILIBARAS...28.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EN AREA BAJO AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA EN EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN EL SUR DE FLORIDA DISMINUIRAN HOY. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE EN EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 10 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS ALTAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...24.4 NORTE...85.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...135 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...948 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KEYW 211222 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-211530- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 948 MB...OR 28.00 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ALLOWED RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN AS OF 700 AM TODAY. TOURISTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY. FISHERMANS HOSPITAL IN MARATHON WILL REOPEN AT 1000 AM THIS MORNING. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER WILL REOPEN AT NOON TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING IN SQUALLS WITHIN SPIRAL RAINBANDS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. NUMEROUS CUSTOMERS ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER IN THE LOWER KEYS. FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 FEET THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTJP21 RJTD 211200 *** WARNING 211200. WARNING VALID 221200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 985 HPA AT 23.5N 149.0E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 25.4N 145.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 27.6N 141.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 29.5N 139.4E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 23.5N 149.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 25.4N 145.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 231200UTC 27.6N 141.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 241200UTC 29.5N 139.4E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 23.5N 148.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 144.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 26.7N 138.7E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 27.9N 135.3E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAREMY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 19.0N 121.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.1N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.6N 116.7E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 20.6N 113.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTUS84 KLCH 211309 *** HLSLCH LAZ029-033-044-045-051>055-211600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 800 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING DEVELOPING AS HURRICANE RITA NEARS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. PEOPLE THAT PLAN ON EVACUATING OR THOSE MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR THE HURRICANE NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVACUATION INFORMATION...AS OF 7 AM CDT...AN EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR COASTAL CAMERON PARISH INCLUDING JOHNSONS BAYOU...HOLLY BEACH AND THE CITY OF CAMERON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITAS CURRENT PATH...TROPICAL FORCE WINDS COULD BE REACHED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1030 AM. $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 211200 *** WARNING 211200. WARNING VALID 221200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 18.9N 121.5E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 19.9N 119.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 20.4N 118.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 20.8N 114.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 18.9N 121.5E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 19.9N 119.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 231200UTC 20.4N 118.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 241200UTC 20.8N 114.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 19.6N 120.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 120.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.9N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.1N 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.2N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.3N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.4N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.2N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 20.3N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 120.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 211345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 211200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231200 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPZ43 KNHC 211429 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST NIGHT HAD A 50 KT VECTOR RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS...BUT ONLY A PORTION OF THE STORM WAS SAMPLED. AVERAGING THE CI AND T DVORAK NUMBERS ALSO GIVES ABOUT 50 KT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND IS LIMITED TO A COUPLE BANDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MAX IS OVER COOL WATERS AND CONTINUED DECAY IS EXPECTED. MICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6. A NARROW LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MAX MORE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.7N 120.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 22.1N 121.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.2N 122.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 123.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 24/1200Z 21.8N 126.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 211429 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 1500Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 120.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 120.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.1N 121.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.8N 126.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 129.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 211430 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...320/6. A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS WILL BE THE DECISIVE STEERING FEATURE. THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LOW AND/OR THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ERODE THIS RIDGE. THE GFS RESPONDS BY PULLING KENNETH NORTHWARD UNDER THIS LOW...AND THE UKMET SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS KEEPS KENNETH UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND DRIVES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 03Z HAD A 50 KT VECTOR. BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT. THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AT THIS TIME...AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM. THEREFORE KENNETH MAY BE SLOW TO SPIN DOWN BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE REACHED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 14.4N 132.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 14.9N 132.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 15.5N 133.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 15.9N 133.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 134.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 26/1200Z 18.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 211430 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 1500Z WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 146.7W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 160SE 125SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 146.7W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 146.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.2N 147.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 34 KT...155NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.1N 148.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 115SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.2N 149.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 150.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 105SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 152.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 85SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 32.0N 153.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 40.5N 154.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 146.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 211430 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 132.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 132.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 132.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.9N 132.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.5N 133.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 134.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 137.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 132.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 211432 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST WED SEP 21 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.7 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII AND ABOUT 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU, OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HURRICANE JOVA IS STILL A VERY POWERFUL STORM. INTERESTS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...17.6 N...146.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 211435 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE JOVA REMAINS AN INTENSE CATEGORY 3 STORM SYSTEM WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALL AGENCIES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FINAL T AND CURRENT T OF 5.5...WHICH YIELDS 102 KT ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES...AT 6 KT...7 MPH. NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK WHICH IS IN CONFORMANCE WITH CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN JOINED FOR THIS PACKAGE BY THE GFDI. BEYOND 72 HOURS IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL BE ACCELLERATED BY THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN CURRENT MODEL RUNS. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SHEAR THIS TROUGH WILL GENERATE OVER THE STORM WILL BE ENOUGH TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM...HAVE KEPT WITH THE GUIDANCE IN DOWNPLAYING THIS EFFECT FOR NOW. WITHOUT SHEARING...JOVA WILL BE ACCELLERATED RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTACT...AS SEEN IN MOST DYNAMIC MODELS...SINCE FORWARD MOTION IS CONSISTANT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOWS. JOVA WILL INCUR A MORE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING DUE TO RAPIDLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONCE SHE MOVES NORTH OF 30N. ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...JOVA WILL HAVE MINIMAL DIRECT INFLUENCE ON ISLAND WEATHER. AS SHE PASSES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THERE WILL BE A SLACKENING OF TRADE WIND FLOW... ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS 3 AND BEYOND...THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE EFFECT ON ISLAND WEATHER...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS AND LEADING TO LOCAL CONVECTION FUELED BY MOISTURE DRAWN INTO THE ISLANDS AFTER BEING GENERATED BY JOVA. AS HURRICANE JOVA REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM...ALL INTERESTS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING THOSE IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 17.6N 146.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.2N 147.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 19.1N 148.3W 95 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.2N 149.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.7N 150.3W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 25.9N 152.2W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 153.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 40.5N 154.1W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 211443 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...PHILIPPE WEAKENS FURTHER... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 595 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 57.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 211443 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR 23N 61W CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES WERE NOT BAD AND ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT DETECT ANY BELIEVABLE 50 KT WIND VECTORS AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/5. THE FORECAST REASONING THROUGH 72 HOURS REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BACK OFF ON ABSORPTION AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THAT SOLUTION...THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DESPITE THE CURRENT SHEARED CONDITION OF PHILIPPE...AND WITH NO DECREASE IN SHEAR LIKELY...IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS RE-INTENSIFY PHILIPPE. OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THIS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING...BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING SEEMS JUST AS LIKELY. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.2N 57.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 57.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 23.8N 58.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 58.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 38.5N 50.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 41.5N 44.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 211444 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 57.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 58.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.0N 58.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 38.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 41.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 57.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 211444 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 211444 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.8N 58.0W 41 X X X 41 28.5N 59.0W X 12 8 2 22 26.0N 58.6W 10 17 X X 27 BERMUDA X X 1 6 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 211444 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 1500Z WED SEP 21 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 87.9W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 92.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT...125NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 32.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 35.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 85.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 211445 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.0N 90.0W 41 X X X 41 GALVESTON TX X 1 9 6 16 25.7N 92.0W 19 9 X 1 29 FREEPORT TX X 1 10 6 17 26.6N 94.0W 1 18 4 1 24 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 11 5 17 MMSO 238N 982W X X 3 5 8 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 1 9 6 16 MMTM 222N 979W X X 1 3 4 BROWNSVILLE TX X 2 9 5 16 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X 1 1 2 4 MOBILE AL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W 3 7 2 2 14 GULFPORT MS X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 91W 2 12 3 2 19 BURAS LA X 2 4 4 10 GULF 28N 93W X 12 7 2 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X 1 3 6 10 GULF 28N 95W X 5 12 3 20 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 6 5 12 GULF 27N 96W X 6 11 3 20 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 7 7 14 GULF 25N 96W X 8 6 3 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM THU TO 7PM THU C FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI D FROM 7AM FRI TO 7AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 211447 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF RITA UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS FURTHER...IF NECESSARY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AND RITA...AS KATRINA DID...WILL BE CROSSING THE LOOP CURRENT OR AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY CHANGES IN THE EYEWALL WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IN THE AREA OF THE LOOP CURRENT SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED....BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH. AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD...RITA WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BASICALLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINLY. ON THIS TRACK AND DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 24.3N 85.9W 120 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 87.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 130 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 25.7N 92.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 26.6N 94.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 96.5W 100 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1200Z 32.5N 97.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z 35.5N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 211449 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE SE DEBILITA AUN MAS... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.2 OESTE O COMO A 370 MILLAS...595 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOR-NORESTE CON ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...20.2 NORTE...57.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BRWON/FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KEYW 211453 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-211700- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 260 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 944 MB...OR 27.88 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ALLOWED RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN AS OF 700 AM TODAY. TOURISTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER WILL REOPEN AT NOON TODAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT REMAIN CLOSED TODAY. BOTH AIRPORTS MAY BE OPEN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. THE PORT OF KEY WEST IS CLOSED. OFFICIALS ARE EVALUATING THE PORT OF KEY WEST...AND WILL KNOW ITS STATUS LATER TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS TO OCEAN REEF...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF AND ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 FEET MOST OF TODAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAIN AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. HOWEVER...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. THE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS ENDED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS THE LAST HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST. $$ BS ** WTNT83 KNHC 211455 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 .HURRICANE RITA ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTNT83 KNHC 211500 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 .HURRICANE RITA ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTCA43 TJSJ 211507 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA CONTINUA SIENDO UN HURACAN EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO...LOS VIENTOS SE ESTIMAN AHORA EN 140 MPH... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...AL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA DESDE LOS CAYOS MARQUESAS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PROBABLEMENTE SE EMITIRA UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA PORCIONES DEL NOROESTE DE LA COSTA NOROESTE MEXICO MAS TARDE HOY O AL ANOCHECER. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 790 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.3 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 85.9 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS...AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 755 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 140 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y PODRIA LLEGAR A INTENSIDAD CINCO EN LA PARTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIEN HASTA 140 MILLAS AFUERA. SE ESPERA QUE EL CAMPO DE VIENTO ASOCIADO A RITA SE EXPANDA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 944 MILIBARAS...27.88 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM EDT...24.3 NORTE...85.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...140 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...944 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 400 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT83 KNHC 211510 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 .HURRICANE RITA GMZ031-212100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 FLORIDA-BAY-FL 24.95N 80.90W $$ FLC087-GMZ032-033-054-074-075-212100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-212100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTPN32 PHNC 211600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/211530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/211545ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 028 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 132.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 132.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.9N 132.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.5N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.9N 133.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.3N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 18.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 18.5N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 211500 *** WARNING 211500. WARNING VALID 221500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 985 HPA AT 23.6N 148.4E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 25.8N 144.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 23.6N 148.4E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 25.8N 144.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 231200UTC 27.6N 141.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 241200UTC 29.5N 139.4E 270NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 211500 UTC 00HR 19.1N 121.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 210600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 1200 21 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE AT ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 19.3 NORTH 119.9 EAST AT 231200 19.5 NORTH 118.7 EAST AT 241200 19.6 NORTH 117.4 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS STO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPN34 PHNC 211600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/211530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/211535ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 013 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 21.6N 120.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 120.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.1N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.2N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.2N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.0N 124.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.8N 126.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 21.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS84 KLCH 211604 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-211730- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1059 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS... ...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING DEVELOPING AS HURRICANE RITA NEARS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. PEOPLE THAT PLAN ON EVACUATING OR THOSE MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR THE HURRICANE NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO 595 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA OR 620 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVACUATION INFORMATION... CAMERON PARISH...AN EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR COASTAL CAMERON PARISH INCLUDING JOHNSONS BAYOU...HOLLY BEACH AND THE CITY OF CAMERON. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. JEFFERSON COUNTY...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS NOW CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT AREAS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO 1 INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1230 PM. $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 211200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 1200 21 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 221200 ONE NINE POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST 231200 ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN EAST AT 241200 0NE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 18.9N 121.4E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 19.9N 119.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 231200UTC 20.4N 118.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 241200UTC 20.8N 114.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 211500 *** WARNING 211500. WARNING VALID 221500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 990 HPA AT 18.9N 121.4E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 19.9N 119.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTUS84 KLCH 211622 AAA *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-211730- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1120 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS... ...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING DEVELOPING AS HURRICANE RITA NEARS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. PEOPLE THAT PLAN ON EVACUATING OR THOSE MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR THE HURRICANE NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO 595 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA OR 620 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVACUATION INFORMATION... CAMERON PARISH...AS OF 11 AM THE CAMERON PARISH OEP HAS ISSUED AN EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH...NOW INCLUDING GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ORDERED FOR SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK. JEFFERSON COUNTY...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS NOW CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT AREAS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO 1 INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 1230 PM. $$ ** WTPQ20 VHHH 211645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 211500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221500 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231500 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTUS84 KCRP 211705 *** HLSCRP GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ242>247-221715- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1205 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING WESTWARD... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF NUECES...CALHOUN...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND KLEBERG COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL BEND. ...STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 755 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR NUECES COUNTY...THE MAYOR OF PORT ARANSAS HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PORT ARANSAS FOR NOON TODAY. A DECISION FOR THE REST OF NUECES COUNTY WILL BE MADE BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CALHOUN COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTY EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY. FOR REFUGIO AND ARANSAS COUNTIES...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 3 PM CDT. FOR SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 2 PM CDT. FOR KLEBERG COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPLEMENTED FOR THE PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. THE PARK WILL BE CLOSED ON THURSDAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HIGH SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY THURSDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG AREA BEACHES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO FLOOD BEACHES AND BEACH ACCESS ROADS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A GREATER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED AFTER TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AS HURRICANE RITA APPROACHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 PM. $$ TMT ** WTUS84 KHGX 211714 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-212130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 140 MPH... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON... JACKSON...MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA... LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR JACKSON COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY... MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTY WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 6 PM. FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PROGRESS. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING FACILITIES IS UNDERWAY. ON GALVESTON ISLAND... BUSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA'S TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM TODAY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY... HARRIS COUNTY... AND THE CITIES OF HOUSTON...SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN DECISIONS CONCERNING EVACUATIONS FOR OTHER COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MOST INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...AND SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSED. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE CLOSED. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON WILL BE CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING ON THURSDAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.5 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.5 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT FRI 4.2 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.3 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.1 FEET .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .RAINFALL... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 211748 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 146.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.7N 146.4W STRONG 00UTC 22.09.2005 18.2N 147.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 18.3N 148.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 19.0N 149.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 21.3N 151.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 22.4N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 25.1N 154.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 28.4N 155.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 32.2N 154.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 132.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.4N 132.1W MODERATE 00UTC 22.09.2005 14.6N 134.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 15.3N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.6N 137.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.7N 138.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 14.6N 140.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 14.8N 140.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 14.5N 143.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MAX ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 120.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2005 22.2N 120.8W INTENSE 00UTC 22.09.2005 22.4N 121.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 22.1N 122.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 21.7N 124.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 21.6N 124.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 21.1N 125.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 20.3N 125.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 19.6N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 19.2N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.0N 105.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2005 13.0N 105.6W WEAK 00UTC 22.09.2005 13.0N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 13.0N 107.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 13.9N 107.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 14.6N 107.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 15.4N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.0N 108.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 17.1N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 16.9N 108.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 18.4N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 19.1N 109.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 19.6N 110.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 19.9N 113.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 57.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2005 19.7N 57.8W MODERATE 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.0N 57.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 22.7N 57.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 25.2N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 28.1N 57.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 30.7N 57.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 33.2N 56.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 34.7N 53.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 38.0N 48.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 84.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2005 24.4N 84.9W STRONG 00UTC 22.09.2005 24.5N 87.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.6N 89.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 24.6N 91.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 25.5N 93.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 26.3N 94.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 28.6N 95.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 30.7N 97.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 33.2N 98.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 34.0N 98.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2005 34.8N 98.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2005 34.7N 98.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.09.2005 34.7N 98.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211748 ** WTUS84 KLCH 211759 *** HLSLCH LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-212200- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1258 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS... ...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA...VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ...WATCHES/WARNING... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING DEVELOPING AS HURRICANE RITA NEARS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. PEOPLE THAT PLAN ON EVACUATING OR THOSE MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR THE HURRICANE NEED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THIS IS ALSO 595 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA OR 620 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EVACUATION INFORMATION... CAMERON PARISH...AS OF 11 AM THE CAMERON PARISH OEP HAS ISSUED AN EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE PARISH...NOW INCLUDING GRAND LAKE AND HACKBERRY. CALCASIEU PARISH...AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING: AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALCASIEU PARISH THAT ARE AT AN ELEVATION AT OR BELOW 8 FEET MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ALONG THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL...CALCASIEU RIVER...SABINE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS. PERSONS LIVING IN UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN MORE SECURE LOCATIONS. PERSONS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRICAL POWER SHOULD SEEK SAFE LOCATIONS WITH POWER. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ORDERED FOR SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK. JEFFERSON COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF SABINE PASS WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THURSDAY. ALSO...SEA RIM STATE PARK IS CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. SWELLS AHEAD OF HURRICANE RITA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING COASTAL TIDES THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING WITH HURRICANE RITA'S PASSAGE. HURRICANE RITA IS SIMILAR IN SIZE...STRENGTH AND TRACK TO HURRICANE CARLA IN 1961. THE STORM SURGE IN CARLA RANGED FROM AROUND 4 FEET IN MORGAN CITY TO 6 1/2 FEET AT CAMERON TO NEAR 10 FEET AT SABINE PASS. THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE USED AS A GUIDELINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IF HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK. ...WIND IMPACTS... ON RITA'S CURRENT PATH...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY IMPACT AREAS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE...SOME POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS. ...RAINFALL... SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO 1 INCH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 500 PM. $$