** WTUS82 KEYW 210612 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>33-052>054-072>075-210930- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 212 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB...OR 28.35 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE AND FLOOD WATERS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO DRAIN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM WEDNESDAY. TOURISTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS PEAKED AT ABOUT 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. TIDES ARE NOW SLOWLY SUBSIDING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY IMPASSABLE EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WATER...SEAWEED...AND DEBRIS ON THE ROAD. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH PERSIST OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE COMMON IN NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN SPIRAL RAINBANDS. NUMEROUS CUSTOMERS ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER IN THE LOWER KEYS. FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER J. RIZZO ** WTCA43 TJSJ 210614 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SE CONVIERTE EN EL QUINTO HURACAN INTENSO DE LA TEMPORADA DEL 2005 A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE LEJOS DE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA... A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA SECTORES DE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA DESDE EL OESTE DEL PUENTE SEVEN MILE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS HA SIDO CAMBIADO A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA FUERON DESCONTINUADOS DESDE EL NORTE DEL PUENTE SEVEN MILE... INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. LAS EMBARCACIONES PEQUENAS DEBEN PERMANECER EN PUERTO HASTA QUE LOS VIENTOS Y EL OLEAJE DISMINUYAN. A LAS 2 AM EDT...TODOS LOS AVISOS FUERON DESCONTINUADOS PARA CUBA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 84.0 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS...130 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE DRY TORTUGAS...COMO A 145 MILES...235 KM...AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA...Y COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM...AL NOROESTE DE LA HAVANA CUBA. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LO CUAL LLEVARA AL CENTRO DE RITA SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DATOS RECIBIDOS DEL RADAR DOPPLER DE KEY WEST INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 115 MPH... 185 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES AHORA UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y RITA PROBABLEMENTE SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN DRY TORTUGAS INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 65 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 87 MPH ANTES DE PERDER EL CONTACTO CON LA ESTACION. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 960 MB...28.35 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...AUN SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA ESTARAN DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE HOY EN TODAS LAS AREAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL EL NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE 20 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DEL OESTE DE CUBA. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...24.2 NORTE...84.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...960 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTIN20 DEMS 210640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 21-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH, WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH-WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND EAST CENTRAL ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 210600 *** WARNING 210600. WARNING VALID 220600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 990 HPA AT 23.0N 150.2E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 23.8N 146.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 26.0N 140.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 27.4N 137.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 23.0N 150.2E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 23.8N 146.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 230600UTC 26.0N 140.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 240600UTC 27.4N 137.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST -NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 18 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 210600 UTC 00HR 23.0N 150.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 146.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 26.0N 140.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 27.6N 137.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 210600 *** WARNING 210600. WARNING VALID 220600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 992 HPA AT 18.9N 121.8E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 20.0N 119.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 20.5N 117.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 20.8N 115.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 18.9N 121.8E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 20.0N 119.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 230600UTC 20.5N 117.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 240600UTC 20.8N 115.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 210600 UTC 00HR 18.7N 122.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.6N 120.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.2N 119.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.5N 117.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 210600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 210600UTC 23.0N 150.2E MOVEMENT NNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 220600UTC 23.9N 146.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 48HR POSITION 230600UTC 25.6N 140.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 240600UTC 27.2N 136.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 210745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 210600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220600 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT32 KNHC 210828 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 525 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 57.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 210828 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN... AS PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N 60W IMPINGES ON PHILIPPE. THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN... AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL LESSEN. THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CAN HAVE IN PREDICTING TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOWS...I AM SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS ABOUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON RESTRENGTHENING. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL FORECAST FIELDS. IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION... ALTHOUGH AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0201Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THUS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...350/4...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE SLOWER STARTING SPEED DICTATES A LITTLE SLOWER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME GENERAL PATH AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL/ UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS. IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT PHILIPPE WILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS RUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN THE SUBTROPICS. THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.5N 57.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 21.2N 57.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.3N 58.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 28.2N 59.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 33.5N 58.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 210829 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0900Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 57.5W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 57.5W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 57.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 57.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.2N 59.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 57.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 210829 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.3N 58.2W 28 4 X X 32 28.2N 59.6W X 7 13 2 22 25.7N 59.0W 1 23 2 X 26 BERMUDA X X X 7 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 210830 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0900Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 120.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 120.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 123.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.2N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 126.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.0N 131.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 210830 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 146.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 160SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 146.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 146.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 147.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.7N 148.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...155NE 125SE 115SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.8N 149.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 105SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.6N 152.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 85SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 153.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 37.9N 154.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 146.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 210830 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 MAX'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND EXPERIENCES SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THE EYE HAS VANISHED AND T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DECREASING. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS MAX MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS PREDICTION THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT THE LATER FORECAST TIMES. IF SHIPS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT... HOWEVER...MAX WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. BASED ON SSM/I AND SSM/IS IMAGES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...MAX HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/7. A CONTINUED WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX...AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.6N 120.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 22.2N 121.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 22.3N 122.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 22.3N 123.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.2N 124.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 126.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 210832 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 88.7W 41 X X X 41 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 4 9 13 25.2N 90.8W 20 8 1 X 29 GALVESTON TX X X 6 8 14 25.9N 92.8W 2 18 3 1 24 FREEPORT TX X X 6 9 15 MMSO 238N 982W X X 2 6 8 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 6 9 15 MMTM 222N 979W X X 1 4 5 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 5 9 14 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 7 7 14 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X 1 1 3 5 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W 2 7 3 2 14 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 91W X 10 5 3 18 GULFPORT MS X X 1 6 7 GULF 28N 93W X 5 10 4 19 BURAS LA X 1 4 5 10 GULF 28N 95W X 1 11 5 17 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 3 6 9 GULF 27N 96W X 1 11 5 17 NEW IBERIA LA X X 4 8 12 GULF 25N 96W X 3 9 4 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 210832 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 AS SHE DID LAST NIGHT...JOVA HAS AGAIN MADE A SLIGHT JOG TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO LESSEN THE EFFECT OF THIS JOG ON MODEL OUTPUT AND TO BETTER DEFINE THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE. HURRICANE JOVA REMAINS AN INTENSE CATEGORY 3 STORM SYSTEM WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALL AGENCIES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FINAL T AND CURRENT T OF 5.5...WHICH YIELDS 102 KT ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES...AT 6 KT...7 MPH. THE CURRENT TRACK IS PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT WAS MADE TO THE CURRENT TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL JOG WEST NORTHWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT TRACK WELL CONFORMS TO THE GUNS AND CONU CONSENSUS...ALBEIT TO THE LEFT OF GFDI EXPECTATIONS. BEYOND 72 HOURS THE TRACK CONTINUES TO FOLLOW GUNS AND CONU GUIDANCE...AND IN DOING SO DIVERGES SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PAST OFFICIAL TRACK. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IT APPEARS THAT THE MOTION WILL ALSO BE ACCELLERATED BY THE MID LEVEL LOW AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN CURRENT MODEL RUNS. WITH THIS ACCELLERATION...SEEN IN ALL MODELS...THE SYSTEM WILL NOT LIKELY BE SHEARED AS ITS MOTION IS CONSISTANT WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOWS. JOVA WILL INCUR A MORE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING HOWEVER...DUE TO RAPIDLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 30N. ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...JOVA SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON ISLAND WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF TRADE WIND FLOW... ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS 3 AND BEYOND...THAT WOULD BE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE EFFECT ON ISLAND WEATHER THAN WILL JOVA. NONETHELESS...IT WOULD BE BEST FOR ALL INTERESTS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING THOSE IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 17.3N 146.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 17.8N 147.1W 95 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 18.7N 148.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.8N 149.8W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 24.6N 152.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 29.9N 153.4W 70 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 37.9N 154.1W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 210832 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...MAJOR CATEGORY THREE RITA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUDING KEY WEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 210833 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 0320Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS...SINCE THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 55 KT...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DECREASING TO 35 KT AND 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN KENNETH TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/3. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW AS A WEAKENED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 13.6N 131.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 15.4N 133.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 16.7N 134.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z 19.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 210833 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z WED SEP 21 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUDING KEY WEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 84.6W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 86.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 85SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.7N 88.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.9N 92.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 35.5N 96.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 84.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 210833 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.4N 133.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.7N 134.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.0N 137.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 131.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 210834 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.3 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII AND ABOUT 805 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU, OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND IF EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HURRICANE JOVA IS STILL A VERY POWERFUL STORM. INTERESTS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...17.3 N...146.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 210843 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. RITA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN JUST OVER 72 HR. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF RITA GIVES EVERY IMPRESSION THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL MENTIONED EARLIER IS NOT AS APPARENT NOW THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL GOING STRONG. THUS INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE UNTIL A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS OR UNTIL THE EYE MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE GFDL MODEL PEAKS RITA AT ABOUT 120 KT IN 12-18 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS IT AT 122 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE PEAKS IT AT 131 KT IN 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM TO 125 KT IN 24 HR AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT. RITA SHOULD MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL...THEN WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 24.3N 84.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 24.4N 86.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 24.7N 88.7W 125 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.8W 125 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 25.9N 92.8W 125 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 120 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 97.0W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/0600Z 35.5N 96.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 210850 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>33-052>054-072>075-211230- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 450 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...FLOOD WATCH DISCONTINUED... ...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS SECTION REMOVED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 956 MB...OR 28.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM TODAY. TOURISTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING IN NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN SPIRAL RAINBANDS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. NUMEROUS CUSTOMERS ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER IN THE LOWER KEYS. FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 7 TO 12 FEET THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HOWEVER... THE FLOOD THREAT FROM RAIN WATER HAS DIMINISHED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 830 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER J. RIZZO ** WTCA43 TJSJ 210857 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...HURACAN INTENSO CATEGORIA TRES RITA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y CONTINUA INTENSIFICANDOSE... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA FUERON DESCONTINUADOS DESDE EL ESTE DE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUYENDO KEY WEST. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE MARQUESA KEYS HACIA EL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. TODOS LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE RITA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 84.6 OESTE O COMO A 175 MILLAS...285 KM...AL OESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 160 MILLAS...255 KM...AL OESTE NOROESTE DE LA HAVANA CUBA. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO TRAERA AL CENTRO DE RITA LEJOS DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 956 MB...28.23 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA SON POSIBLES EN EN AREA BAJO AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA EN EL RESTO DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EN EL SUR DE FLORIDA DISMINUIRAN HOY. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE EN EXTREMO SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 10 PULGADAS SOBRE AREAS ALTAS...SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...24.3 NORTE...84.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...120 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...956 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA42 TJSJ 210902 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MIERCOLES 21 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE...SIN CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.5 OESTE O COMO A 325 MILLAS...525 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA ALGUN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...19.5 NORTE...57.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...994 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH20 RPMM 210600 *** T T T GALE WARNING 09 AT 0600 21 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) {0518} ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AD SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 220600 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST AT 230600 TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO EAST AT 240600 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPN32 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 027 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 131.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 131.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.9N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.4N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.7N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 027 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 131.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 131.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.9N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.4N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.7N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 210900 UTC 00HR 19.0N 121.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.1N 119.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.5N 117.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.8N 115.1E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 210900 *** WARNING 210900. WARNING VALID 220900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 23.3N 149.7E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 24.7N 146.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0517 SAOLA (0517) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 23.3N 149.7E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 24.7N 146.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 230600UTC 26.0N 140.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 240600UTC 27.4N 137.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 038 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 146.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 146.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.8N 147.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.7N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.7N 148.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.8N 149.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 24.6N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 29.9N 153.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 37.9N 154.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPLL 210600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0600 21 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE AT ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 220600 TWO ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST AT 230600 TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO EAST AT 240600 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTUS84 KHGX 210953 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-211700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 450 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...RITA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON...JACKSON... MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA...LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. .INTENSITY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PROGRESS. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING FACILITIES WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM THIS MORNING. ON GALVESTON ISLAND... BUSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY THIS MORNING AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA'S TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM TODAY. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY... HARRIS COUNTY... AND THE CITIES OF HOUSTON...SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN DECISIONS CONCERNING EVACUATIONS FOR OTHER COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES WILL BE MADE TODAY. .SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS... MOST INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...AND SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING TODAY. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING TODAY. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED BEGINNING TODAY. UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON WILL BE CLOSING ALL FACILITIES AT 8 AM THIS MORNING. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING ON THURSDAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS. LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.5 FEET PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.5 FEET JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.2 FEET FREEPORT 949 PM CDT FRI 4.2 FEET PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.3 FEET CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.1 FEET .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. .RAINFALL... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM CDT. $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 210900 *** WARNING 210900. WARNING VALID 220900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) 992 HPA AT 18.9N 121.5E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 20.0N 119.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 18.9N 121.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 20.0N 119.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 230600UTC 20.5N 117.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 240600UTC 20.8N 115.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN34 PHNC 211000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210935ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 012 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 13E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 120.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 120.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.2N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.3N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 22.3N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.2N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.0N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 211045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 210900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220900 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTNT33 KNHC 211137 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 211144 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>33-052>054-072>075-211500- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 745 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 130 MILES WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 948 MB...OR 28.00 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ALLOWED RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN AS OF 700 AM TODAY. TOURISTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING IN SQUALLS WITHIN SPIRAL RAINBANDS THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. NUMEROUS CUSTOMERS ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER IN THE LOWER KEYS. FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 FEET THIS MORNING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 1100 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER