** WTUS82 KMFL 210000 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-210330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA MOVING AWAY BUT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS EARLY TONIGHT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACT ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND UNTIL 1 AM. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FAR INLAND SECTIONS. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARCO ISLAND. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS GOING OUTDOORS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO AVOID DOWNED ELECTRICAL LINES...DEBRIS OR FLOODED AREAS. PERSONS USING PORTABLE GENERATORS AND GRILLS SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING CAN OCCUR WHEN USING THESE DEVICES IN ENCLOSED AREAS. REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS AND GRILLS OUTDOORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WINDS ALONG THE MAINLAND SIDE OF FLORIDA BAY WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE EARLY TONIGHT THEN LATE TONIGHT FROM MARCO ISLAND TO NAPLES LATE TONIGHT. NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 4 AM...TIDAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR IN THE FLAMINGO...CHOKOLOSKEE...EVERGLADES CITY AREA THAT MAY AFFECT AREA ROADS. A TIDE ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR FROM MARCO ISLAND TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA. FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...STORM TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE AS ONSHORE WINDS DECREASE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE NEAR 1030 PM TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THAT TIME. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 8 PM WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS WERE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAY OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE...LATER TONIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE EAST AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...DECREASING TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE EAST AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS INCLUDE 3.00 INCHES AT FORT LAUDERDALE AND 2.95 INCHES AT TAMIAMI AIRPORT IN WEST KENDALL. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MANY AREAS OF SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. THE REMAINDER OF MIAMI- DADE COUNTY AND MOST OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO THREE INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... SPIRAL BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTSR20 WSSS 201800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA43 TJSJ 210013 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA PASANDO AL SUR DE KEY WEST...MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL SURESTE DE GOLFO DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HEDTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE HEDTA CHOKOLOSKEE EN LA COSTA SUROESTE. EL AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERA DESCONTINUADO HOY SI RITA SE ADENTRE MAS AL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...Y LA HABANA. EL AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERA DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HEDTA ENGLEWOOD. ESTE AVISO PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.6 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...70 KILOMETROS..AL SUR SUROESTE DE DRY TORTUGAS... CERCA DE 65 MILES...100 KM...OESTE SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA... Y ALDEDEDOR DE 75 MILES...120 KM...AL NORTE DE HAVANA CUBA. RITA SE MUEVE AL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESA DIRECCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA RITA PASARA AL SUR DE DRY TORTUGAS ADENTRANDOSE AL EXTREMO SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...RITA PASARA LO SUFICIENTEMENTE CERCANO PARA QUE LA PORCION NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO SE MUEVA SOBRE O JUSTO AL SUR DE DRY TORTUGAS. DATOS RECIBIDOS DEL RADAR DOPPLER DE KEY WEST Y DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 105 MPH...180 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y RITA PROBABLEMENTE SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES...O UN HURACAN MAYOR DURANTE EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HEDTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HEDTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. EL AEROPUERTO INTERNACIONAL DE KEY WEST... REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 70 MPH...Y UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 53 MPH FUE REPORTADA EN DRY TORTUGAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 969 MB...28.61 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPADAS CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...AUN SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...PERO ESTARA DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE MAS TARDE DURANTE ESTA NOCHE. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA...EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA... CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS...EXCEPTO HEDTA 20 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE OCCIDENTE DE LA ISLA DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LA PARTE SUR DE FLORIDA. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y DURANTE LAS TEMPRANAS HORAS DEL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...24.0 NORTE...82.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 105 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...969 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTOR JAE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KEYW 210029 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210330- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 969 MB...OR 28.61 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA...ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE. IN KEY LARGO...WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW TOURISTS VISITING THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS MAY INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. PORTIONS OF SOUTH ROOSEVELT AND BERTHA STREET ARE UNDER AT LEAST ONE FOOT OF WATER AND ARE NEARLY IMPASSABLE. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT MILE MARKER 73.5 HAS BEEN CLEARED AND OPENED. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR IS AT 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE STORM TIDES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS EVENING. DRIVING IS NOT SAFE...DUE TO STRONG CROSS WINDS...RAIN...AND BLOWING SEA SPRAY. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE REEF MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...AND OUT TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. BETWEEN 445 PM AND 500 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER RECEIVED AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 102 MPH IN THE KEY WEST AREA. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND BUSINESSES. TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. ONLY A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND ABOUT 7000 RESIDENTIAL AND BUSINESS CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER IN THE LOWER KEYS. POWER MAY BE OUT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOME CUSTOMERS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. SEVERAL TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SO FAR TODAY...MIAMI RADAR RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS...NEAR KEY LARGO...DOWN TO PLANTATION KEY. MOST OF THIS RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KEYS. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 1130 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ SD ** WTUS82 KTBW 210030 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-210330- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 830 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING STEADILY WEST...SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... RITA REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH. HURRICANE RITA HAS MADE IT'S CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A STRONG OUTER BAND JUST SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. THIS OUTER BAND WILL LIKELY ROTATE UP OVER SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY BY 9 PM AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. RITA IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS...MAINLY IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS MINIMAL...AS THE SOLID AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE AREA. BRIEF PONDING OF STREETS OR LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN SQUALLS. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE RITA. AREAL STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...1 INCH IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH IN DESOTO COUNTY. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE. LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER PORTION OF FEEDER BANDS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...AND MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 14 FEET BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OFFSHORE AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS MINIMAL TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE STRONGEST RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE IS NO THREAT OF SURGE. IN FACT...TIDES WILL RUN BELOW FORECAST VALUES THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST. LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE HURRICANE TAKES MOST OF THE HIGHEST SEAS WITH IT WHILE CONTINUING WEST. THUS...TIDES WILL RISE AT MOST TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 PM TONIGHT. $$ EO ** WTUS82 KTBW 210031 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-210330- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 830 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING STEADILY WEST...SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... RITA REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH. HURRICANE RITA HAS MADE IT'S CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A STRONG OUTER BAND JUST SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. THIS OUTER BAND WILL LIKELY ROTATE UP OVER SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY BY 9 PM AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. RITA IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS...MAINLY IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS MINIMAL...AS THE SOLID AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE AREA. BRIEF PONDING OF STREETS OR LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN SQUALLS. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE RITA. AREAL STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...1 INCH IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH IN DESOTO COUNTY. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE. LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER PORTION OF FEEDER BANDS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...AND MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 14 FEET BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OFFSHORE AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS MINIMAL TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE STRONGEST RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE IS NO THREAT OF SURGE. IN FACT...TIDES WILL RUN BELOW FORECAST VALUES THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST. LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE HURRICANE TAKES MOST OF THE HIGHEST SEAS WITH IT WHILE CONTINUING WEST. THUS...TIDES WILL RISE AT MOST TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 PM TONIGHT. $$ EO ** WTJP21 RJTD 210000 *** WARNING 210000. WARNING VALID 220000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 996 HPA AT 22.0N 150.7E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 22.8N 147.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 25.1N 140.6E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 26.3N 137.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 210000UTC 22.0N 150.7E FAIR MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220000UTC 22.8N 147.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 230000UTC 25.1N 140.6E 170NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 240000UTC 26.3N 137.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 210000 UTC 00HR 22.1N 150.7E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 147.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 24.9N 141.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 27.0N 137.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 210000 *** WARNING 210000. WARNING VALID 220000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0518 DAMREY (0518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPA AT 17.8N 123.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 18.2N 120.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 19.0N 119.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 19.6N 118.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 210000UTC 17.8N 123.0E POOR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 220000UTC 18.2N 120.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 230000UTC 19.0N 119.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 240000UTC 19.6N 118.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0517 SAOLA (0517) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST -NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 210000 UTC 00HR 18.0N 123.0E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.5N 120.6E 992HPA 20M/S P+48HR 19.1N 119.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 19.8N 118.2E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORT HWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 210000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0518 DAMREY ANALYSIS POSITION 210000UTC 17.8N 123.0E MOVEMENT NW 6KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 220000UTC 18.5N 120.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 230000UTC 19.3N 119.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 240000UTC 19.8N 118.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 210145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR LUZON (0518) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS AND WAS NAMED DAMREY. AT 210000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210352ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 123.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 123.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.0N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.6N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.0N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.2N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.2N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 20.1N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.0N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 123.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ23 KNHC 210227 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0300Z WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 119.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 119.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.8N 120.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.1N 121.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 122.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 210227 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 MAX HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE...SAVE THE LBAR MODEL...IS UNANIMOUS ON A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL 1-4 DAY FORECASTS OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALONG 29N. AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A LARGE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG 120W. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...MAX WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RAGGED EYE WITH MODERATELY COLD SURROUNDING CONVECTION. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA LOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT. MAX IS MOVING OVER 24 DEG C WATERS...AND WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS MAX EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 21.1N 119.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 21.8N 120.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.1N 121.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.2N 122.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 124.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 210228 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.9N 58.1W 32 X X X 32 27.5N 59.5W X 8 9 3 20 25.2N 58.9W 3 19 1 1 24 BERMUDA X X X 8 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 210228 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 57.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 57.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 57.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 57.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 210229 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N... 57.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 210229 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z WED SEP 21 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EAST AND NORTH TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 83.2W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 83.2W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 85SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 83.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 210230 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.4N 87.5W 45 X X X 45 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 10 12 24.6N 89.4W 13 14 X 1 28 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 12 12 25.1N 91.4W X 14 7 1 22 GALVESTON TX X X 1 12 13 MUHA 230N 824W 99 X X X 99 FREEPORT TX X X X 13 13 MUAN 219N 850W 1 1 X X 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 13 13 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 6 6 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 11 11 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 11 11 MMMD 210N 897W X 1 1 X 2 GULF 29N 85W X 1 X 1 2 KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 29N 87W X 3 4 2 9 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 89W 1 9 5 2 17 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 91W X 3 11 4 18 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 93W X X 8 9 17 MOBILE AL X X 1 5 6 GULF 28N 95W X X 2 13 15 GULFPORT MS X X 2 6 8 GULF 27N 96W X X 1 13 14 BURAS LA X 1 6 5 12 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 10 12 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 3 8 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 210230 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N... 57.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 210230 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 WESTERLY SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N 60W...CONTINUES TO INHIBIT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF PHILIPPE. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE SEMBLANCE OF BANDING FEATURES...WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP AND SUBSEQUENTLY SHEAR AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE GFS PREDICTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DEGENERATE INTO A NORTHEAST- SOUTHWEST SHEAR AXIS...AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE PHILIPPE MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY PREDICTING TROPICAL 200 MB FLOWS...AND THE SHEARING OVER THE STORM MAY NOT RELAX. IN ANY EVENT...AROUND 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A FINAL WEAKENING TREND. BY 5 DAYS...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE MERGING WITH A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE USING INFRARED IMAGERY. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...UNTIL IT PASSES ABOUT 32N. AFTERWARD THE SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MAINLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.3N 57.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 65 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 27.5N 59.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 32.5N 59.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 210236 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE AL NOR NOROESTE CON MUY POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE FUE RELOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.6 OESTE O COMO A 315 MILLAS...505 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. UN LEVE AUMENTO EN SU INTENSIDAD ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HEDTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...19.3 NORTE...57.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...994 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR ESTRADA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPZ23 KNHC 210239 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0300Z WED SEP 21 2005 ...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 12 FT SEAS RADII... HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 119.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 119.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.8N 120.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.1N 121.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 122.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.2N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 210240 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 A 1943Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. EARLIER SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT DEPICTS 20 TO 30 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AS KENNETH CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/3. THE INTERMITTENT SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- LEVEL PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN JOVA AND KENNETH. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE GFDN SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LAYER HIGH TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BIT SLOWER...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 13.5N 131.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 13.7N 131.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 14.3N 132.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.3N 133.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.7N 135.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 210240 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z WED SEP 21 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.4W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.4W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 131.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.3N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.3N 133.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 210240 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 .HURRICANE RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC011-086-099-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-210300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ AMZ610-210300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTPZ41 KNHC 210240 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 A 1943Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. EARLIER SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT DEPICTS 20 TO 30 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AS KENNETH CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/3. THE INTERMITTENT SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- LEVEL PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN JOVA AND KENNETH. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE GFDN SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LAYER HIGH TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BIT SLOWER...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 13.5N 131.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 13.7N 131.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 14.3N 132.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.3N 133.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.7N 135.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 210244 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 .HURRICANE RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-210900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-210900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ GMZ032-054-074-075-210900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W $$ GMZ052-053-072-073-210900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050921T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 150.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 150.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.8N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.5N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.3N 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.4N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 26.8N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.2N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.4N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 150.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 210245 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0300Z WED SEP 21 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 145.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 145.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 145.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.6N 146.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.4N 147.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...155NE 125SE 115SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 148.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 149.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 105SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.6N 151.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 85SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.9N 153.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 155.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 145.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 210245 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.8 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HURRICANE JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...PASSING ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER...INTERESTS ON AND NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...17.1 N...145.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 210246 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE JOVA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS...YIELDING TO ENSEMBLE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU TRENDS OVER THE PAST TWO FORECAST CYCLES. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THESE ENSEMBLES BUT TO THE RIGHT OF LATEST STAND-ALONE GFDL GUIDANCE. FORWARD MOVEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED TO 12 AND 14 KT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY...FOR THE SAME REASON. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK UP TO 48 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. AS JOVA MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...IT SHOULD PASS ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. INITIAL JOVA STRENGTH REMAINS AT 100 KT...BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM CPHC...JTWC...SAB AND GWC. AS BEFORE...GFDL WANTS TO KEEP JOVA AT OR NEAR 100 KT EVEN AT 120 HOURS...WHILE SHIP WEAKENS JOVA TO LESS THAN 30 KT BY 96 HOURS. GFS75 GUIDANCE FROM 18Z SHOWS UNFAVORABLY HIGH SHEAR BETWEEN 850 AND 300 MB ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS. LATEST UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER JOVA...AT LEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON JOVA SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY PARALLELS THE 26C DEGREE ISOTHERM. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT JOVA WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH SUCH A LONG FETCH OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...SO THE FORECAST IS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 120 HOURS. IN SHORT...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO BETTER ALIGN WITH MODEL ENSEMBLES...WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME TO REFLECT THE FORECAST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BEYOND 48 HOURS MAY ALTER THE FORECAST INTENSITY. IF JOVA WEAKENS FASTER THAN FORECAST...STEERING WILL BE SHALLOWER...CAUSING THE LONG RANGE TRACK TO VEER BACK TO THE LEFT. FORECASTER POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.1N 145.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.6N 146.5W 95 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 18.4N 147.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 19.4N 148.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 149.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 23.6N 151.3W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.9N 153.4W 70 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 33.1N 155.3W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 210248 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS... ...CHANGES MADE TO FLORIDA WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EAST AND NORTH TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL TAKE RITA AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ALL AREAS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.1 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KTBW 210303 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-210630- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING STEADILY WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...NEW INFORMATION... CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. RITA IS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SQUALLS...MAINLY IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS MINIMAL...AS THE SOLID AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE AREA. BRIEF PONDING OF STREETS OR LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN SQUALLS. IN FACT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE RITA. AREAL STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...1 INCH IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH IN DESOTO COUNTY. HOWEVER. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN SQUALLS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 14 FEET BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OFFSHORE AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS MINIMAL TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE STRONGEST RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE IS NO THREAT OF SURGE. IN FACT...TIDES WILL RUN BELOW FORECAST VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST. LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE HURRICANE TAKES MOST OF THE HIGHEST SEAS WITH IT WHILE CONTINUING WEST. THUS...TIDES WILL RISE AT MOST TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THIS IS THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN ON HURRICANE RITA. $$ EO ** WTNT43 KNHC 210311 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT AT 21/0020Z IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT...ROUGHLY 93 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KEY WEST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 113 KT AT 9500 FEET IN SPOTS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 105-107 KT RANGE...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 95 KT SURFACE WINDS. A RECON PASS THROUGH THE 28 NMI DIAMETER EYE AT 0204Z INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 965 MB... WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS 95 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT...OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. RITA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. HOWEVER ...BOTH MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE 21/00Z 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS TEXAS TO DECREASE BY 20 METERS...WHEN IN FACT... 21/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE HEIGHTS DID NOT CHANGE AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS REMAINED QUITE STRONG WITH HEIGHTS NEAR 6000 METERS. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT WAS PALCED ON THE GFS MODEL ...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT IN 60 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.1N 83.2W 95 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W 105 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W 125 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W 125 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W 120 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 210314 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210630- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KEYS.. ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS...AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 969 MB...OR 28.61 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE AND FLOODING HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRAIN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW TOURISTS VISITING THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH ROOSEVELT AND OTHER STREETS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF KEY WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO WATER AND DEBRIS ON THE ROADWAYS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT MILE MARKER 74 IS AGAIN CLOSED DUE TO RISING WATERS NEAR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR IS AT 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER KEYS. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE REEF MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...AND OUT TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ONLY A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND ABOUT 7000 RESIDENTIAL AND BUSINESS CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER IN THE LOWER KEYS. POWER MAY BE OUT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOME CUSTOMERS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. SEVERAL TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TONIGHT. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SO FAR TODAY...MIAMI RADAR RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS...NEAR KEY LARGO...DOWN TO PLANTATION KEY. MOST OF THIS RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KEYS. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 230 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ SD ** WTCA43 TJSJ 210315 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SE FORTALECE RAPIDAMENTE MIENTRAS PASA AL SUR DE DRY TORTUGAS... ...SE HACEN CAMBIOS LA LOS AVISOS EN FLORIDA... A 11 PM EDT...0300Z...PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS BAJOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE AL OESTE DE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AL OESTE A KEY WEST Y DRY TORTUGAS. A 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS MEDIANOS Y ALTOS HA SIDO CAMBIADO A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AL ESTE Y NORTE A OCEAN REEF...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. A 11 PM EDT...TODOS LOS AVISOS HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADOS PARA LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.1 NORTE... LONGITUD 83.2 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...70 KILOMETROS..AL SUR SUROESTE DE DRY TORTUGAS... CERCA DE 95 MILES...150 KM...OESTE SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA... Y ALDEDEDOR DE 80 MILES...130 KM...AL NOROESTE DE HAVANA CUBA. RITA SE MUEVE AL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LO QUE ALEJARA A RITA DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA ADENTRANDOLO AL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. DATOS RECIBIDOS DEL RADAR DOPPLER DE KEY WEST Y DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 110 MPH...175 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN FUERTE HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y RITA PROBABLEMENTE SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA TRES...DURANTE EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA...Y ALCANZARA CATEGORIA CUATRO PARA EL ANOCHECER DEL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HEDTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HEDTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. EL AEROPUERTO INTERNACIONAL DE KEY WEST... REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 61 MPH...Y UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 51 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA HAS 64 MPH FUE REPORTADA EN DRY TORTUGAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 965 MB...28.501 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPADAS CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...AUN SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...PERO ESTARA DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE MAS TARDE DURANTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL MIERCOLES SOBRE TODOS LOS AREAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y EL SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL OESTE DE LA ISLA DE CUBA Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA AISLADS DE 20 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DEL OCCIDENTE DE CUBA. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y DURANTE LAS TEMPRANAS HORAS DEL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...24.1 NORTE...83.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 105 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...965 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 APM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 APM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTOR JAE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KMFL 210321 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-210600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1121 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNINGS CANCELED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND UNTIL 1 AM. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARCO ISLAND. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. RITA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS GOING OUTDOORS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO AVOID DOWNED ELECTRICAL LINES...DEBRIS OR FLOODED AREAS. PERSONS USING PORTABLE GENERATORS AND GRILLS SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING CAN OCCUR WHEN USING THESE DEVICES IN ENCLOSED AREAS. REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS AND GRILLS OUTDOORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WINDS ALONG THE MAINLAND SIDE OF FLORIDA BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 4 AM...TIDAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR IN THE FLAMINGO AREA. FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...STORM TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE AS ONSHORE WINDS DECREASE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOME VERY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THAT TIME AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 11 PM WINDS WERE AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 4O MPH MOSTLY IN RAIN BANDS FROM PALM BACH COUNTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WINDS WERE GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN RAIN BANDS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE EAST AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...DECREASING TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE EAST AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS INCLUDE 3.00 INCHES AT FORT LAUDERDALE AND 2.95 INCHES AT TAMIAMI AIRPORT IN WEST KENDALL. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MANY AREAS OF SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY METRO AREAS...SOUTH OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. THE REMAINDER OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND MOST OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO THREE INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... SPIRAL BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. EVEN AFTER THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 1 AM...ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN BAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER OFFICE IN MIAMI. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PS ** WTPH20 RPMM 210000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 08 AT 0000 21 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY)(0518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 220000 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO EAST AT 230000 TWO ZERO POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE EAST AT 240000 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 210300 *** WARNING 210300. WARNING VALID 220300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) 994 HPA AT 22.5N 150.5E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 23.3N 146.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 210300UTC 22.5N 150.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220300UTC 23.3N 146.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 230000UTC 25.1N 140.6E 170NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 240000UTC 26.3N 137.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN34 PHNC 210400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210335ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 011 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 119.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 119.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.8N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.1N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.2N 122.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.2N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 20.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DAMREY 0518 (0518) INITIAL TIME 210300 UTC 00HR 18.5N 122.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.2N 120.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 19.9N 119.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 20.2N 117.6E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTUS82 KEYW 210350 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210630- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CORRECTED STORM INFORMATION ...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KEYS.. ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS...AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS BETWEEN 39 MPH AND 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...AND ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB...OR 28.50 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE AND FLOODING HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRAIN. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW TOURISTS VISITING THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH ROOSEVELT AND OTHER STREETS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF KEY WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO WATER AND DEBRIS ON THE ROADWAYS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT MILE MARKER 74 IS AGAIN CLOSED DUE TO RISING WATERS NEAR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR IS AT 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER KEYS. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE REEF MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...AND OUT TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ONLY A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND ABOUT 7000 RESIDENTIAL AND BUSINESS CUSTOMERS ARE WITHOUT POWER IN THE LOWER KEYS. POWER MAY BE OUT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOME CUSTOMERS. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SEAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. SEVERAL TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TONIGHT. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SO FAR TODAY...MIAMI RADAR RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS...NEAR KEY LARGO...DOWN TO PLANTATION KEY. MOST OF THIS RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KEYS. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 230 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ SD ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0518 DAMREY (0518) ANALYSIS PSTN 210300UTC 18.5N 122.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 220300UTC 18.5N 120.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 230000UTC 19.0N 119.9E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 240000UTC 19.6N 118.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTUS84 KHGX 210411 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-211000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1111 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON...JACKSON... MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA...LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PROGRESS. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING FACILITIES WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON GALVESTON ISLAND... BUSSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA'S TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY... HARRIS COUNTY... AND THE CITIES OF HOUSTON...SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN DECISIONS CONCERNING EVACUATIONS FOR OTHER COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES WILL BE MADE ON WEDNESDAY. .SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT FACILITY CLOSINGS... MOST INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...AND SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. .RAINFALL... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 210400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210335ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/210345ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 037 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 145.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 145.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.6N 146.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.4N 147.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.4N 148.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.5N 149.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.6N 151.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.9N 153.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 33.1N 155.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPLL 210000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 0000 21 SEPT. TROPICAL STORM (DAMREY) (0518) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMD BASED ON SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 17.9N 122.9E FORECAST TOP MOVE NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 220000 19.6N 121.2E AT 230000 20.9N 119.1E AT 240000 21.8N 116.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 210445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 210300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (0518) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 210300 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 150.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 150.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.8N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.5N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.3N 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.4N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 26.8N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.2N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.4N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 150.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE IN REMARKS.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 210546 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 145.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2005 16.9N 145.5W STRONG 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.6N 146.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 18.1N 147.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 18.7N 149.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 19.5N 150.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 20.3N 152.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 22.9N 154.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 25.4N 155.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 131.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2005 12.9N 131.6W MODERATE 12UTC 21.09.2005 13.2N 131.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 13.8N 132.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 14.3N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 14.7N 133.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 14.6N 134.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 14.6N 134.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 14.7N 134.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 14.6N 134.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 14.5N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 14.4N 133.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MAX ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 119.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.7N 119.4W STRONG 12UTC 21.09.2005 22.3N 120.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 22.9N 121.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 22.2N 122.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 22.9N 122.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 22.9N 123.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.0N 103.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2005 12.0N 103.9W WEAK 12UTC 21.09.2005 12.5N 105.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 12.4N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 12.8N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 12.9N 107.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 14.5N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 14.7N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.3N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 17.1N 108.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 18.7N 109.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 19.3N 109.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2005 20.9N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2005 22.4N 111.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 57.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2005 19.4N 57.8W MODERATE 12UTC 21.09.2005 20.4N 57.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 22.8N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 25.4N 58.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 28.0N 59.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 30.5N 59.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 33.2N 58.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 36.2N 56.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHNAGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 37.9N 51.6W INTENSE EXTRA TROPICAL HURRICANE RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 82.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2005 23.7N 82.9W STRONG 12UTC 21.09.2005 23.7N 85.4W STRONG LITTLE CHNAGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 24.5N 8