** WTUS82 KMFL 201833 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-202130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 143 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED TORNADO IMPACT UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS UPDATED WIND IMPACTS UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 803 IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EDT. MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES... TROPICAL STORM/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SOME WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED AT 5 PM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH MARCO ISLAND. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE AS WINDS DECREASE LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE BEACHES IN BROWARD COUNTY. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TIDE LEVELS FROM FLAMINGO TO CAPE SABLE WILL BEGIN TO RISE REACHING LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING OF ROADS AND RESIDENCES IN PLACES LIKE FLAMINGO... CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY. ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST FROM MARCO ISLAND TO NAPLES AND VANDERBILT BEACH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND THE HIGH TIDE COINCIDE. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 2 PM WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 49 MPH AT FORT LAUDERDALE AIRPORT AND 43 MPH ON MIAMI BEACH. OTHER SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INTERMITTENT SPIRAL BANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS ENCOUNTERING DOWNED POWER LINES SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT THEM TO FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WHEN COMING TO AN INTERSECTION WITH NO TRAFFIC SIGNALS DUE TO POWER OUTAGE...USE FOUR WAY STOP RULES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED TODAY. WHEN USING PORTABLE GENERATORS...REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE AWAY FROM PEOPLE TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT...A GUST TO 55 KNOTS WAS OBSERVED AT 10 AM EDT. IN THE SPIRAL BANDS...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE MIAMI- DADE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WILL OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MUCH OF SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND MOST OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE OR TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... AT 215 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY AND OTHER TORNADOES MAY FORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KTBW 201852 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-202130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 250 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH AROUND THE INNER CORE. SUSTAINED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. OUTER FEEDER BANDS ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LEE COUNTY...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTSMAY BREIFLY EXCEED TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THESE BANDS. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE IN LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE FEEDER BAND...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. FARTHER NORTH...SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RACING WEST ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THE CELLS TO BECOME STRONG...WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OBSERVED OVER TAMPA BAY AROUND 2 PM. CONDITIONS WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A BIT. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. RITA IS MOVING STEADILY WEST AT 15 MPH. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING EAST AT 15 MPH BY EVENING. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. SIMILAR SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE FELT NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND TAMPA BAY. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE AS EACH BAND PASSES...BUT NOTABLE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. AREAL STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...1 INCH IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH IN DESOTO COUNTY. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE. LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER PORTION OF FEEDER BANDS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...AND MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN FEEDER BANDS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS CONTINUING FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND RITA JUST EMERGING INTO THE GULF...SEAS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY FROM NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FEET RIGHT NEAR SHORE TO 6 FEET 20 NM OFFSHORE...AND UP TO 10 FEET 60 NM OFFSHORE...BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 14 FEET BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OUT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF BONITA BEACH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A LOW RISK OF TORNADOES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS RITA CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OF THE KEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE IS NO THREAT OF SURGE. IN FACT...TIDES WILL RUN BELOW FORECAST VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE HURRICANE TAKES MOST OF THE HIGHEST SEAS WITH IT WHILE CONTINUING WEST. THUS...TIDES WILL RISE AT MOST TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ BSG ** WTJP21 RJTD 201800 *** WARNING 201800. WARNING VALID 211800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0517 SAOLA (0517) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 22.3N 151.5E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 22.8N 148.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 24.3N 142.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 26.0N 138.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 201800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 201800UTC 22.3N 151.5E POOR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 211800UTC 22.8N 148.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 221800UTC 24.3N 142.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 231800UTC 26.0N 138.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTUS82 KMFL 201906 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-202130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION FOR WARNINGS IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 143 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED TORNADO IMPACT UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS UPDATED WIND IMPACTS UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 803 IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EDT. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...PALM BEACH...COLLIER COUNTIES... TROPICAL STORM/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SOME WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED AT 5 PM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH MARCO ISLAND. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE AS WINDS DECREASE LARGE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE BEACHES IN BROWARD COUNTY. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TIDE LEVELS FROM FLAMINGO TO CAPE SABLE WILL BEGIN TO RISE REACHING LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING OF ROADS AND RESIDENCES IN PLACES LIKE FLAMINGO... CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY. ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST FROM MARCO ISLAND TO NAPLES AND VANDERBILT BEACH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND THE HIGH TIDE COINCIDE. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 2 PM WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 49 MPH AT FORT LAUDERDALE AIRPORT AND 43 MPH ON MIAMI BEACH. OTHER SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BY MIDNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INTERMITTENT SPIRAL BANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS ENCOUNTERING DOWNED POWER LINES SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT THEM TO FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WHEN COMING TO AN INTERSECTION WITH NO TRAFFIC SIGNALS DUE TO POWER OUTAGE...USE FOUR WAY STOP RULES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED TODAY. WHEN USING PORTABLE GENERATORS...REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE AWAY FROM PEOPLE TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT...A GUST TO 55 KNOTS WAS OBSERVED AT 10 AM EDT. IN THE SPIRAL BANDS...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE MIAMI- DADE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WILL OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MUCH OF SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND MOST OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE OR TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... AT 215 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY AND OTHER TORNADOES MAY FORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 201800UTC 17.2N 123.3E POOR MOVE W 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 211800UTC 18.3N 121.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 201800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0517 SAOLA ANALYSIS POSITION 201800UTC 22.3N 151.5E MOVEMENT WNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 211800UTC 23.0N 148.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 221800UTC 24.2N 143.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 231800UTC 25.2N 139.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 201945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 201800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO THE EAST OF LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 202100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 002 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZSEP2005// REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201952ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 123.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 123.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 18.8N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 19.7N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.1N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.3N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.4N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 123.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 201800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SAOLA 0517 (0517) INITIAL TIME 201800 UTC 00HR 21.7N 151.7E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 22.6N 147.4E 995 HPA 20M/S P+48HR 24.2N 141.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 25.8N 137.2E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPN32 PGTW 202100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 21.6N 151.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 151.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.3N 149.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.0N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.6N 145.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.4N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.7N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 150.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (SAOLA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 202039 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PHILIPPE IS MUCH EASIER TO FIND THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE CENTER IS EXPOSED JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE POOR SATELLITE APPEARENCE...PHILIPPE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. AGAIN THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL SURVIVE THE CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR AND REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS CLOSELY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR. IT SEEMS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LOW TOO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...SO THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MIGHT NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS SOON AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY BY ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE A LITTLE...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL STORM TO SLOWLY RESTRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE ONCE AND FOR ALL. FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.8N 57.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.8N 58.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 59.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 26.5N 59.7W 65 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 32.0N 60.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 37.5N 54.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 202039 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 57.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 57.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.5N 59.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 32.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 37.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 57.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 202040 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...PHILIPPE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 495 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N... 57.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 202041 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.8N 58.3W 34 X X X 34 26.5N 59.7W X 10 9 2 21 24.0N 59.0W 7 16 1 1 25 BERMUDA X X 1 10 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 202043 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 120.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.8N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 128.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 202043 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 MAX HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH BANDING FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE WITH SOME STRATACUMULUS BEGINNING TO BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MAX APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AT THE PRESENT TIME. WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM BOTH AFWA AND TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. MAX HAS NOW MOVED NORTH OF 20 DEGREES LATITUDE WHERE SSTS ARE BELOW 26 DEGREE CELSIUS. THESE COOLER WATERS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN MAX THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS. IN TWO DAYS...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWEST OF MAX WHICH WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. MAX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN FIVE DAYS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.2N 119.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 20.9N 120.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 121.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.8N 122.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.8N 124.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.9N 126.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 21.5N 128.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 202045 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 131.6W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 131.6W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 131.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.8N 132.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 142.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 131.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 202046 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE SE DEBILITA SE RECLASIFICA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE FUE RELOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.5 OESTE O COMO A 305 MILLAS...495 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERAN MUY POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MILIBARAS...29.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...18.8 NORTE...57.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...990 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR ESTRADA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT43 KNHC 202047 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 THERE ARE NO NEW DATA WHICH SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS SINCE THE 87-KNOT PEAK SURFACE WIND MEASURED BY THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER... THE 93-KNOT SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL...AND ABOUT 100 KNOTS ON THE DOPPLER RADAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE AND AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RITA WITH A DEEP CIRCULATION UP TO 200 MB SURROUNDED BY A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE LATTER WHICH BRINGS RITA TO 125 KNOTS. HOWEVER SUCH INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. RITA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS...BY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RITA TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED... MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SPREAD IS LARGER BUT MOST OF THE MODELS STILL BRING RITA TO THE TEXAS COAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 24.0N 82.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 115 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 202047 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.2W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 82.2W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 82.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 202047 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE JOVA CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE PREVIOUS ONE. DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE ONE ENDING AT 5 AM HST...THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED LEFT TO ACCOMMODATE A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PLACING THAT TRACK WITHIN THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU SPREAD. FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHIFTED BACK TO THE RIGHT. HOWEVER...JOVA ACTUALLY TOOK A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT. TO ACCOMMODATE THE DIFFERENCE...A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WAS TAKEN...KEEPING JOVA ON A SLOW WEST NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THEN CLOSELY PARALLELING THE PREVIOUS TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS. INITIAL JOVA INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT...BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM CPHC...JTWC AND SAB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 72 HOURS GIVEN TIGHTLY BUNCHED SHF5...GFDL AND UK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...JOVA IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO 15 KT OR MORE OF SOUTHWEST SHEAR FORECAST OVER JOVA AT 96 AND 120 HOURS IN 12Z GFS75. GFDL WANTS TO KEEP STRENGTH AS HIGH AS 103 KT IN THE LONG TERM WHILE SHIP CUTS JOVA OFF COMPLETELY BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL JOVA INTENSITY FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. THE BIG FACTOR TO CONSIDER IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES IS THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK. JOVA WILL MOVE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...SO WEAKENING WILL LIKELY NOT BE CAUSED BY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST NOT THROUGH 72 HOURS. FORECASTER POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 16.7N 145.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 17.1N 146.1W 95 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.8N 147.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 18.7N 147.8W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 19.8N 148.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 22.2N 150.8W 85 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 25.1N 153.6W 70 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 28.7N 157.2W 60 KT $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 202047 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 2100Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 145.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 145.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 145.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.1N 146.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 147.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...155NE 125SE 115SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.7N 147.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.8N 148.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 105SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.2N 150.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 85SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.1N 153.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.7N 157.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 145.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 202047 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HURRICANE JOVA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ON AND NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...16.7 N...145.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 202048 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS RITA MOVES FARTHER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF FLORIDA CITY AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST....BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 202048 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.2N 87.0W 45 1 X X 46 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 3 8 11 24.5N 89.5W 5 24 1 X 30 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 10 12 25.0N 91.5W X 13 8 2 23 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 12 12 MUHA 230N 824W 99 X X X 99 GALVESTON TX X X X 13 13 MUAN 219N 850W 4 X X X 4 FREEPORT TX X X X 13 13 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 6 6 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 12 12 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 3 3 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 11 11 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 11 11 MMMD 210N 897W X 1 1 1 3 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 1 2 MARATHON FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 29N 87W X 3 2 3 8 KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 28N 89W X 10 5 2 17 MARCO ISLAND FL 8 X X X 8 GULF 28N 91W X 3 10 5 18 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 93W X X 7 10 17 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 95W X X 1 14 15 MOBILE AL X X 1 5 6 GULF 27N 96W X X 1 13 14 GULFPORT MS X X 2 6 8 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 11 13 BURAS LA X 1 5 6 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 202051 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 .HURRICANE RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC011-086-099-AMZ630-650-651-670-671-210300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ AMZ610-210300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTUS82 KEYW 202103 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200030- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 510 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE MARQUESAS KEYS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 973 MB...OR 28.73 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA... ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL... MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE. IN KEY LARGO...WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND WAVE ACTION OVER THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS IMPASSABLE AND HAS BEEN BARRICADED TO ALL TRAFFIC. OTHER SPECIFIC AREAS ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY WHICH ARE SEEING ENCROACHING WATER INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING...MILE MARKER 11...MILE MARKERS 34 THROUGH 35...MILE MARKER 58...MILE MARKER 62...MILE MARKER 68...MILE MARKERS 85 THROUGH 87...AND MILE MARKER 110. STORM SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR IS AT 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS EVENING. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE REEF SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A FEW TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPZ41 KNHC 202105 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 A CURVED BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER OF KENNETH DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE... KENNETH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE STORM ON A SLOWER TREND THAN THE SHIPS MODEL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/2. THE SOUTHWEST DRIFT SEEN EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...AND KENNETH HAS NOW RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO STEER KENNETH TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 13.1N 131.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.8N 132.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 133.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 134.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.5N 142.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 202113 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210030- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 510 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE MARQUESAS KEYS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 973 MB...OR 28.73 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA... ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL... MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE. IN KEY LARGO...WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND WAVE ACTION OVER THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS IMPASSABLE AND HAS BEEN BARRICADED TO ALL TRAFFIC. OTHER SPECIFIC AREAS ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY WHICH ARE SEEING ENCROACHING WATER INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING...MILE MARKER 11...MILE MARKERS 34 THROUGH 35...MILE MARKER 58...MILE MARKER 62...MILE MARKER 68...MILE MARKERS 85 THROUGH 87...AND MILE MARKER 110. STORM SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR IS AT 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS EVENING. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE REEF SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A FEW TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTCA43 TJSJ 202115 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA PASANDO AL SUR DE KEY WEST...MOVIENDOSE SOBRE EL SURESTE DE GOLFO DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DESDE EL SUR DE FLORIDA CITY EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE EN LA COSTA SUROESTE. EL AVISO DE HURACAN PROBABLEMENTE SERA DESCONTINUADO HOY SI RITA SE ADENTRE MAS AL GOLFO DE MEXICO. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...Y LA HABANA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. ONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE AL NORTE DE FLORIDA CITY Y PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 82.2 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KILOMETROS..AL SUR SUROESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 55 MILLAS...90 KILOMETROS AL NOR NORESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE HAVANA CUBA. RITA SE MUEVE AL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA... Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESA DIRECCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA TRAYECTORIA TRAERA RITA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 100 MPH...160 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS HURACANADOS SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. SAND KEY REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 60 MPH...97 KM/HR CON UNA RAFAGA DE 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA REGISTRO RAFAGAS DE HAST 60 MPH...90 KM/HR LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 973 MB...28.73 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA...EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA... CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS...EXCEPTO HASTA 20 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE OCCIDENTE DE LA ISLA DE CUBA. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LA PARTE SUR DE FLORIDA. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...24.0 NORTE...82.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...973 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR JAE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH20 RPMM 201800 *** T T T WARNING 07 AT 1800 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 211800 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 221800 TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 231800 TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTUS82 KMFL 202128 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-210030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 515 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS UPDATED WIND IMPACTS UPDATED LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND UNTIL 1 AM. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FAR INLAND SECTIONS. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MARCO ISLAND. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING RITA A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS GOING OUTDOORS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO AVOID DOWNED ELECTRICAL LINES...DEBRIS OR FLOODED AREAS. PERSONS USING PORTABLE GENERATORS AND GRILLS SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING CAN OCCUR WHEN USING THESE DEVICES IN ENCLOSED AREAS. REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS AND GRILLS OUTDOORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WINDS ALONG THE MAINLAND SIDE OF FLORIDA BAY WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE EARLY TONIGHT THEN LATE TONIGHT FROM MARCO ISLAND TO NAPLES LATE TONIGHT. NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AROUND 4 AM...TIDAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR IN THE FLAMINGO...CHOKOLOSKEE...EVERGLADES CITY AREA THAT MAY AFFECT AREA ROADS. A TIDE ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL MAY OCCUR FROM MARCO ISLAND TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING THE NAPLES AREA. FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...STORM TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE AS ONSHORE WINDS DECREASE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE NEAR 1030 PM TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THAT TIME. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 5 PM WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT MIAMI BEACH...BUT WIND GUSTS OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WERE LESS THAN 30 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. FOR INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE... LATER TONIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL BE EAST AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...DECREASING TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE EAST AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WILL OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER MUCH OF SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...SOUTH OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. THE REMAINDER OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND MOST OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... SPIRAL BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS84 KHGX 202130 *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-210500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 430 PM CST TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...JACKSON...MATAGORDA... FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA...LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PROGRESS. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING FACILITIES WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON GALVESTON ISLAND... BUSSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA'S TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY... HARRIS COUNTY... AND THE CITIES OF HOUSTON...SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN DECISIONS CONCERNING EVACUATIONS FOR OTHER COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES WILL BE MADE EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR ON WEDNESDAY. .SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT FACILITY CLOSINGS... CLEAR CREEK...GALVESTON...FRIENDSWOOD AND HIGH ISLAND ISD SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. GALVESTON COUNTY FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. .RAINFALL... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11PM CST. $$ ** WTNT63 KNHC 202131 *** TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 BETWEEN 445 AND 5 PM EDT...AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM A HAM RADIO OPERATOR INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 102 MPH WERE MEASURED BY WIND EQUIPMENT IN THE KEY WEST AREA. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 202100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0517 SAOLA (0517) ANALYSIS PSTN 202100UTC 22.2N 151.3E POOR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 70NM FORECAST 24HF 212100UTC 22.7N 147.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 221800UTC 24.3N 142.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 231800UTC 26.0N 138.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPN34 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/202130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/202135ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 010 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 19.9N 119.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 119.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.9N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.6N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.8N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.8N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.9N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.5N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 20.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS82 KEYW 202149 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-210030- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 550 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE MARQUESAS KEYS THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 973 MB...OR 28.73 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA... ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL... MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE. IN KEY LARGO...WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ALLOW TOURISTS VISITING THE FLORIDA KEYS TO RETURN STARTING AT 700 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND WAVE ACTION OVER THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS IMPASSABLE AND HAS BEEN BARRICADED TO ALL TRAFFIC. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEARED AT AROUND 800 PM. OTHER SPECIFIC AREAS ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY WHICH ARE SEEING ENCROACHING WATER INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING... MILE MARKER 11...MILE MARKERS 34 THROUGH 35...MILE MARKER 58...MILE MARKER 62...MILE MARKER 68...MILE MARKERS 85 THROUGH 87...AND MILE MARKER 110. STORM SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH TIDE AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDE AT KEY WEST HARBOR IS AT 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS EVENING. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE REEF SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BETWEEN 445 PM AND 500 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER RECEIVED AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 102 MPH IN THE KEY WEST AREA. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A FEW TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BE 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTUS84 KHGX 202156 CCA *** HLSHGX GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-210500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE GALVESTON COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 430 PM CST TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY... ...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS... BRAZORIA...LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...AND GALVESTON COUNTIES... ...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION... .LOCATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. .MOVEMENT... HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... .EVACUATION INFORMATION... FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PROGRESS. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF NURSING HOMES AND ASSISTED-LIVING FACILITIES WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON GALVESTON ISLAND... BUSSES WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 10 AM FOR PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF RITA'S TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE ALSO IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FOR LOW LYING AREAS OF CHAMBERS COUNTY... HARRIS COUNTY... AND THE CITIES OF HOUSTON...SEABROOK AND BAYTOWN DECISIONS CONCERNING EVACUATIONS FOR OTHER COUNTIES AND COMMUNITIES WILL BE MADE EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR ON WEDNESDAY. .SCHOOL AND GOVERNMENT FACILITY CLOSINGS... CLEAR CREEK...GALVESTON...FRIENDSWOOD AND HIGH ISLAND ISD SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. GALVESTON COUNTY FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. .STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. .WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING. .RAINFALL... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX. THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11PM CST. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/202135ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/202145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 036 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 145.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 145.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.1N 146.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.8N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.7N 147.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.8N 148.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.2N 150.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.1N 153.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 28.7N 157.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) AND HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/202130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/202145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 11E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 131.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 131.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 13.3N 132.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 13.8N 132.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.5N 133.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.0N 134.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.5N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 18.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 202100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 202100UTC 17.4N 123.1E POOR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 212100UTC 18.3N 121.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPH RPLL 201800 *** TTT WARNING 07 AT 1800 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 17.0N 123.6E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 03MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 211800 18.9N 121.8E AT 221800 20.6N 120.6E AT 231800 22.3N 119.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 202245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 202100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO THE EAST OF LUZON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 212100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 222100 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTNT33 KNHC 202354 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA PASSING SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT AS RITA MOVES FARTHER WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. THIS WARNING WILL ALSO LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... NORTH OF HAVANA CUBA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK ...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RITA WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL TO MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...180 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST....BUT IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...EXCEPT UP TO 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$