** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 201203 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201530- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 988 MB...OR 29.18 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST... HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA...ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVE. IN KEY LARGO...WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND LOW SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 800 AM...SPIRAL RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. NORTH WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS...AND 30 TO 35 MPH OVER THE UPPER KEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE IMMINENT OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND WILL OCCUR BY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. SOME TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LIKELY IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES BY LATER THIS MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 95 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 96 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 16 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 34 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTUS82 KTBW 201203 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201530- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 800 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RITA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE EAST GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A MINIMAL RISK OF TORNADOES EXISTS IN RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SEAS TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COUPLE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1130 AM THIS MORNING. $$ SB ** WTCA43 TJSJ 201209 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA A PUNTO DE LLEGAR HASTA RITA...DETERMINARA SI ES UN HURACAN... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISIO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO LOS ABACOS...ISLA ANDROS...ISLA BERRY... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...ISLA GRAND BAHAMA...Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DESDE GOLDEN BEACH EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE EN LA COSTA SUROESTE. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...Y LA HABANA. ESTAN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE DEERFIELD BEACH AL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET...AL IGUAL QUE PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...Y PINAR DEL RIO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 80.4 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS..AL ESTE SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE MUEVE ENTRE EL OESTE Y OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA ESTARA PASANDO CERCA DE LOS CAYOS BAJOS DE LA FLORIDA ALREDEDOR DEL MEDIODIA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE TORNE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MB...29.18 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS Y EL ESTE DE CUBA. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...23.8 NORTE...80.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...ENTRE OESTE Y OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...988 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KMFL 201227 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-201600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 826 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WIND EFFECTS UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 803 IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EDT. MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...HURRICANE/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. BROWARD...PALM BEACH AND COLLIER COUNTIES...TROPICAL STORM/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AT MIAMI AND KEY WEST SHOW THAT RITA IS VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE INTENSITY AND RITA SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS SPIRAL BANDS CONTINUE TO INTERMITTENTLY ROTATE ONSHORE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS. SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED IN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO FIND A SAFE PLACE AND STAY PUT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TODAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. SCHOOLS ARE OPERATING AS USUAL EXCEPT SOME SCHOOLS IN THE CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY AREA WILL DISMISS EARLY TODAY AS A PRECAUTION. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. IT WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 11 AM EDT. HOWEVER...THESE STORM TIDES COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THIS STORM TIDE WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. SOME LOW LYING COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE FLOODED. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO EXPECTED. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT FLOODING THIS MORNING LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... AS SPIRAL BANDS MOVED THROUGH THE METRO ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS TO 54 MPH WERE REPORTED AT POMPANO BEACH AT 414 AM EDT AND ALSO AT MIAMI BEACH AT 427 AM EDT. WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA WERE GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH AT 8 AM EDT. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SPIRAL BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE ONSHORE. FOR METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 58 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF EUREKA DRIVE... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS LASTING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. FOR COLLIER COUNTY...OCCASIONAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 58 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE METRO MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVING TONIGHT. FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INTERMITTENT SPIRAL BANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS ENCOUNTERING DOWNED POWER LINES SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT THEM TO FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WHEN COMING TO AN INTERSECTION WITH NO TRAFFIC SIGNALS DUE TO POWER OUTAGE...USE FOUR WAY STOP RULES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED TODAY. WHEN USING PORTABLE GENERATORS...REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE AWAY FROM PEOPLE TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...44 PERCENT IN MIAMI...29 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 14 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...59 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 40 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 25 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...8 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND...AND 5 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS ARE ALREADY 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT...A GUST TO 52 KNOTS WAS OBSERVED AT 7 AM EDT. IN THE SPIRAL BANDS...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE MIAMI- DADE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER UNTIL THE WEATHER IMPROVES. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS EVENING. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TODAY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF RITA AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTPQ20 RJTD 201200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 201200UTC 21.2N 151.7E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 211200UTC 22.6N 148.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 034A CORRECTED 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 143.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 143.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.8N 144.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.4N 145.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.0N 146.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.9N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.4N 149.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 24.2N 151.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.5N 153.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED POSITION INFORMATION FOR 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS.// ** WTNT63 KNHC 201311 *** TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 201319 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201530- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 920 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 915 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB...OR 29.09 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST... HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA...ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE IN KEY LARGO...WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND LOW SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 915 AM...SPIRAL RAINBANDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTH WINDS WERE SUSTAINED NEAR 30 MPH OVER THE LOWER KEYS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE IMMINENT IN THE LOWER KEYS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. SOME TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LIKELY IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES BY LATER THIS MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 16 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 34 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 201200UTC 17.0N 124.1E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 211200UTC 18.0N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 201500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200051Z SEP 05// REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351Z SEP 05// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 21.4N 151.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 151.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.0N 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.5N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.1N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.6N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 24.4N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 151.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 200051Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200100) REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 201500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 001 REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351Z SEP 05// REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201352Z SEP 05// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 123.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 123.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.1N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.6N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.9N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.1N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 123.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191351Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 191400). NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 201430 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 144.9W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 140SE 125SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 144.9W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 144.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 145.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.6N 146.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...155NE 125SE 115SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.3N 147.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...145NE 115SE 105SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 148.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 105SE 95SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 150.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 85SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.4N 152.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.9N 156.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 144.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 201431 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN EARLIER FORECAST AND THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GUNS...CONU AND GUNA...BUT WELL TO THE LEFT OF GFDI. INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CPHC CALCULATED A FINAL T OF 5.5...WHILE GWC AND JTWC DROPPED IT BACK TO A 5.0 FOR THIS PACKAGE. HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL STRENGTH CONSTANT AT 100 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH CPHC AND HAVE SLOWED THE WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES DUE SLIGHTLY LESS COOLING OF THE SEA SURFACE ALONG THE CURRENT TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS BRINGING A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION SOME 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP JOVA ON THE PROJECTED NORTHWESTERLY COURSE THROUGH 96 HOURS OR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO DESTROY HER CIRCULATION. MODELS THEN MOVE THIS UPPER LOW WESTWARD WITH TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED JOVA TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY OR WEST- NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND 96 HOURS. THIS WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...KEEPING THE ISLANDS IN LIGHT WINDS AS IT PASSES BY AND PROVIDING A MOIST... UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH JOVA IS PULLED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEPEND THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THUS THE MAIN EFFECTS OF JOVA FOR THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN HEAVY SHOWERS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNCOMFORTABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS WITH ALL TROPICAL SYSTEMS...TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ON THE NEARBY WATERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 16.6N 144.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 145.7W 95 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 17.6N 146.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 18.3N 147.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 19.4N 148.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 21.7N 150.2W 85 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 24.4N 152.8W 80 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 27.9N 156.2W 75 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 201432 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 131.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 131.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 131.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N 131.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.8N 132.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 133.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 134.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 135.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 201434 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST TUE SEP 20 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.9 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII AND ABOUT 910 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU, OAHU. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HURRICANE JOVA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWESTWARD SOME 350 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THUS INTERESTS ON AND NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...16.6 N...144.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 201435 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 119.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 121.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.9N 122.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 123.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.8N 125.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 201453 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS... FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED AROUND THE CENTER OF MAX THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO T4.5 OR 77 KT WHILE AFWA REMAINS AT A T4.0 OR 65 KT. THE ABOVE INFORMATION WARRANTS BUMPING UP THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF MAX TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASED INTENSITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS AND MAY EVEN OCCUR SOONER ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MAX IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MAX...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN MAX TO THE WEST IN TWO DAYS. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.5N 119.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 119.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 21.4N 121.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.9N 122.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.9N 123.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 21.8N 125.7W 30 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 201454 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE HURRICANE...AND WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. CURRENT DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS SUPPORT AROUND 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS BUT IT IS BETTER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES BEFORE DOWNGRADING PHILIPPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST CONTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AND ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 4-5 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT RELAX AS EXPECTED AND PHILIPPE WEAKENS...IT COULD TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK WOULD BE NEEDED. DUE TO THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARENCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS PHILIPPE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO RELAX THE WESTERLY SHEAR IN 12-24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL. IF PHILIPPE SURVIVES.... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.3N 57.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.8N 57.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 25.0N 59.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 30.5N 59.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 40.0N 48.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 201455 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.1W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.1W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 57.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.9N 58.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 40.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 201456 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DESPITE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAD ERODED THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF KENNETH OVERNIGHT...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CIRCULATION. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ONLY T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN LOWERED TO A CONSERVATIVE 65 KT AND KENNETH REMAINS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF PERSISTANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/2. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE CENTER HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER...A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 13.2N 131.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 13.3N 131.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 13.8N 132.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 14.5N 133.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 15.2N 134.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 135.4W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 201200 *** T T T WARNING 06 AT 1200 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIAMTED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 211200 ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST AT 221200 ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AT 231200 TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE=HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT72 KNHC 201457 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.7N 57.8W 34 X X X 34 25.0N 59.0W X 13 6 2 21 22.9N 58.4W 9 14 1 1 25 BERMUDA X X X 7 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 201458 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...PHILIPPE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 515 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 57.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 201500 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 RITA HAS BECOME THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. DATA FROM DOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST...SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. DOPPLER RADAR PEAK WINDS AT 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 90 AND 95 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 100 KNOTS...AND DROPSONDES IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 982 MB...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCEAN BELOW RITA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS THE WINDS UP BUT...IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. RITA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO GO UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS SINCE IT IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE RITA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ONE THE CASES OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW JUST THE SKINNY BLACK LINE...IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO REMIND THEM THAT 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE LARGE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 23.8N 81.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 201500 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005 ...CORRECTION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 81.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 81.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 80.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 81.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 201503 *** SPFAT3 HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.3N 85.8W 46 X X X 46 GULFPORT MS X X 1 5 6 24.5N 88.3W 5 24 1 X 30 BURAS LA X X 4 7 11 24.5N 90.5W X 12 9 2 23 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 8 9 MUHA 230N 824W 60 X X X 60 NEW IBERIA LA X X 1 9 10 MUAN 219N 850W 6 1 X X 7 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 9 9 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 6 6 GALVESTON TX X X X 11 11 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX X X X 11 11 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 10 10 MMMD 210N 897W X 1 2 1 4 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 9 9 MARATHON FL 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 10 10 MIAMI FL 6 X X X 6 GULF 29N 85W X 2 1 1 4 KEY WEST FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 29N 87W X 3 4 2 9 MARCO ISLAND FL 21 X X X 21 GULF 28N 89W X 5 8 3 16 FT MYERS FL 5 X X X 5 GULF 28N 91W X 1 8 7 16 VENICE FL 3 1 X X 4 GULF 28N 93W X X 3 12 15 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 95W X X X 13 13 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 27N 96W X X X 13 13 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 11 12 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 201503 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA BECOMES THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF HAVANA CUBA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM. SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH...95 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 72 MPH...117 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N... 81.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 201504 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE SE DEBILITA LEVEMENTE... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PHILIPPE FUE RELOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.1 OESTE O COMO A 320 MILLAS...515 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LEVE DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...18.3 NORTE...57.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH RPLL 201200 *** TTT WARNING 06 AT 1200 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.5N 123.5E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 03MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS MAXMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 211200 17.4N 122.2E AT 221200 19.5N 121.0E AT 231200 21.2N 120.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT83 KNHC 201508 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 .HURRICANE RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC011-202100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ AMZ610-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-202100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTUS82 KEYW 201515 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201830- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1120 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 982 MB...OR 29.00 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER... 1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA...ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER... TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE IN KEY LARGO... WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND WAVE ACTION OVER PARTS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY FROM MILE MARKER 73 THROUGH MILE MARKER 90. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A FEW TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPN32 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/201530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/201545ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 024 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 131.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 131.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.3N 131.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.8N 132.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.5N 133.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.2N 134.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.3N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 17.5N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 18.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS82 KMFL 201526 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-202130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1006 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...WORST OF HURRICANE RITA WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACT UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WIND INFORMATION ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 803 IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EDT. MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...HURRICANE/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. BROWARD...PALM BEACH AND COLLIER COUNTIES...TROPICAL STORM/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI OR 150 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAKING RITA A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PERSONS THROUGHOUT SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN INDOORS IN A SAFE LOCATION UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WAS REACHED AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING BUT WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND MAY RISE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO FEET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM SURGE FROM RITA. LARGE WAVES ON TOP OF THE INCREASED TIDE LEVELS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE BEACHES IN BROWARD COUNTY. SOME LOW LYING COASTAL ACCESS ROADS MAY FLOOD. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TIDE LEVELS FROM FLAMINGO TO CAPE SABLE WILL BEGIN TO RISE REACHING LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING OF ROADS AND RESIDENCES IN PLACES LIKE FLAMINGO... CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY. ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST FROM MARCO ISLAND TO NAPLES AND VANDERBILT BEACH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN ONSHORE WINDS AND THE HIGH TIDE COINCIDE. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1030 AM A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH WAS REPORTED ON MIAMI BEACH. SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOR COLLIER COUNTY...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE METRO MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES AREAS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT. FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INTERMITTENT SPIRAL BANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS ENCOUNTERING DOWNED POWER LINES SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT THEM TO FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WHEN COMING TO AN INTERSECTION WITH NO TRAFFIC SIGNALS DUE TO POWER OUTAGE...USE FOUR WAY STOP RULES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED TODAY. WHEN USING PORTABLE GENERATORS...REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE AWAY FROM PEOPLE TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...59 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 40 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 25 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...8 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND...AND 5 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT...A GUST TO 55 KNOTS WAS OBSERVED AT 10 AM EDT. IN THE SPIRAL BANDS...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE MIAMI- DADE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER UNTIL THE WEATHER IMPROVES. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR THIS STRENGTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH MIAMI-DADE...MOSTLY IN AN AREA THAT INCLUDES PERRINE...KENDALL AND CUTLER RIDGE AND GOULDS. THIS IS THE SAME AREA THAT HAD NEARLY 15 TO 20 INCHES DURING HURRICANE KATRINA AND THUS AN URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF RITA AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTCA43 TJSJ 201526 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN HURACAN RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SE CONVIERTE EN EL NOVENO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DESDE GOLDEN BEACH EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE EN LA COSTA SUROESTE. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...Y LA HABANA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DESDE EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET...AL IGUAL QUE PARA EL LAGO OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PROVINCIA PINAR DEL RIO EN CUBA. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...SE HAN DESCONTINUADO TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA LAS BAHAMAS Y LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS Y CIENFUEGOS EN CUBA. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 81.4 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS...120 KILOMETROS..AL ESTE SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA Y COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LA CIUDAD DE HAVANA CUBA. RITA SE MUEVE AL OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ESTARA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LOS ESTRECHOS DE FLORIDA ENTRE LA CIUDAD DE HAVANA Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA HOY. SIN EMBARGO SE ESPERA...QUE LOS VIENTOS MAS FUERTES ASOCIADOS CON LA PARED NORTE IMPACTEN PORCIONES DE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA DIRECTAMENTE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 120 MILLAS...195 KM. EL CAYO SOMBRERO RECIENTEMENTE INFORMO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 59 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON RAFAGAS HASTA 72 MILLAS POR HORA...117 KILOMETROS POR HORA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 6 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA...EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE CUBA... CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE LA PARTE SUR DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE LAS LLUVIAS CONTINUEN DISMINUYENDO A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...23.8 NORTE...81.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...OESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR BA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA42 TJSJ 201527 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE SE DEBILITA LEVEMENTE... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PHILIPPE FUE RELOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 57.1 OESTE O COMO A 320 MILLAS...515 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LEVE DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...18.3 NORTE...57.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/AVILA $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KTBW 201532 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201830- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH AROUND THE INNER CORE. SUSTAINED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. AN OUTER FEEDER BAND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM. WIND GUSTS MAY BREIFLY EXCEED TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THIS BAND. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE IN LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE FEEDER BAND...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1115 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA. RITA IS MOVING STEADILY WEST AT 15 MPH. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING EAST AT 15 MPH BY EVENING. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE AS EACH BAND PASSES...BUT NOTABLE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. AREAL STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...1 INCH IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH IN DESOTO COUNTY. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE. LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER PORTION OF FEEDER BANDS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...AND MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN FEEDER BANDS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS CONTINUING FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND RITA JUST EMERGING INTO THE GULF...SEAS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY FROM NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FEET RIGHT NEAR SHORE TO 6 FEET 20 NM OFFSHORE...AND UP TO 10 FEET 60 NM OFFSHORE...BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 14 FEET BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OUT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF BONITA BEACH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A LOW RISK OF TORNADOES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS RITA CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OF THE KEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE IS NO THREAT OF SURGE. IN FACT...TIDES WILL RUN BELOW FORECAST VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE HURRICANE TAKES MOST OF THE HIGHEST SEAS WITH IT WHILE CONTINUING WEST. THUS...TIDES WILL RISE AT MOST TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 230 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ BSG ** WTUS82 KTBW 201534 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201830- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION... RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH AROUND THE INNER CORE. SUSTAINED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY. AN OUTER FEEDER BAND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO LEE AND PERHAPS CHARLOTTE COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM. WIND GUSTS MAY BREIFLY EXCEED TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THIS BAND. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE IN LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE FEEDER BAND...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. THE WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1115 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA. RITA IS MOVING STEADILY WEST AT 15 MPH. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING EAST AT 15 MPH BY EVENING. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE AS EACH BAND PASSES...BUT NOTABLE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. AREAL STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...1 INCH IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH IN DESOTO COUNTY. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE. LOCATIONS WHICH EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER PORTION OF FEEDER BANDS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN LEE COUNTY...AND MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN FEEDER BANDS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS CONTINUING FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND RITA JUST EMERGING INTO THE GULF...SEAS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY FROM NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 FEET RIGHT NEAR SHORE TO 6 FEET 20 NM OFFSHORE...AND UP TO 10 FEET 60 NM OFFSHORE...BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 14 FEET BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OUT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF BONITA BEACH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A LOW RISK OF TORNADOES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS RITA CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OF THE KEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE IS NO THREAT OF SURGE. IN FACT...TIDES WILL RUN BELOW FORECAST VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE HURRICANE TAKES MOST OF THE HIGHEST SEAS WITH IT WHILE CONTINUING WEST. THUS...TIDES WILL RISE AT MOST TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 230 PM THIS AFTERNOON. $$ BSG ** WTPQ20 RJTD 201500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 201500UTC 21.5N 151.2E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 211500UTC 23.0N 147.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN34 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/201530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/201535ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 009 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 118.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 118.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.4N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.9N 122.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 21.9N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.8N 125.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.5N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 20.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 201500UTC 17.2N 123.6E POOR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 211500UTC 18.1N 120.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTUS82 KEYW 201647 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201830- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1250 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 982 MB...OR 29.00 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER... 1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA...ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER... TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE IN KEY LARGO... WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND WAVE ACTION OVER THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS IMPASSABLE AND HAS BEEN BARRICADED TO ALL TRAFFIC. OTHER SPECIFIC AREAS ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY WHICH ARE SEEING ENCROACHING WATER INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING... MILE MARKER 11...MILE MARKERS 34 THROUGH 35...MILE MARKER 58...MILE MARKER 62...MILE MARKER 68...MILE MARKERS 85 THROUGH 87...AND MILE MARKER 110. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A FEW TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPQ20 VHHH 201645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST LUZON HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS. AT 201500 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231500 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTNT63 KNHC 201711 *** TCUAT3 HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DATA FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED 100 MH WINDS AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 201714 AAB *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201830- HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 120 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 115 PM EDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA HAVE INCREASED TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS AND ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 978 MB...OR 28.88 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER... 1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA...ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER... TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE. IN KEY LARGO... WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND WAVE ACTION OVER THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS IMPASSABLE AND HAS BEEN BARRICADED TO ALL TRAFFIC. OTHER SPECIFIC AREAS ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY WHICH ARE SEEING ENCROACHING WATER INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING... MILE MARKER 11...MILE MARKERS 34 THROUGH 35...MILE MARKER 58...MILE MARKER 62...MILE MARKER 68...MILE MARKERS 85 THROUGH 87...AND MILE MARKER 110. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...FROM SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND BUSINESSES. A FEW TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTNT80 EGRR 201731 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 144.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2005 16.6N 144.5W STRONG 00UTC 21.09.2005 17.0N 145.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.2N 146.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 17.2N 148.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 16.9N 149.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 17.7N 150.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 17.6N 152.1W WEAK