** WTUS82 KTBW 200602 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST 25 TO 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RITA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE EAST GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES EXISTS IN RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SEAS TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COUPLE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 AM THIS MORNING. $$ CP ** WTUS82 KMFL 200602 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-201030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 202 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RAINBANDS INCREASING IN FREQUENCY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 130 AM EDT...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...PERSONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THEIR LOCATION. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD COUNTY...PERSONS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 MPH. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ALL BROWARD COUNTY AND SOME MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON WHETHER SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE STORM TIDES COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PERSIST. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BY THEN. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY TUESDAY MAY BE ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE. THIS MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE HERBERT HOOVER DIKE...ESPECIALLY FROM FISHEATING CREEK TO MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AFTER DAWN. HIGHER WINDS...40 TO 5O MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE ONSET OF THE HIGHER GUSTS IN RAIN BANDS ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAWN. OVER WESTERN PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES...EASTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY...AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FROM LATER DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY COULD EXPERIENCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE STORM...WOULD INCREASE THE EXPECTED WIND IMPACTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 75 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...60 PERCENT IN MIAMI...50 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 30 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 30 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...20 PERCENT IN MIAMI...10 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 5 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...75 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 45 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...30 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 20 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...BISCAYNE BAY...AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WINDS IN RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 50 KNOTS WILL BEGIN EARLY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE DAWN...ON THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BY LATER IN THE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER DURING THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VERY ROUGH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DAWN TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO ABOVE 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE STORM...WOULD INCREASE THE EXPECTED WIND IMPACTS. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AND A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RAIN BANDS TOWARDS DAWN. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA FROM NOW ON. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS RISK WILL PROBABLY BE GREATEST TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINS TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN BANDS ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 AM. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PS ** WTUS82 KEYW 200613 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-200930- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 212 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR GENERAL POPULATION. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER MAY BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY AND COUNTY OFFICES...AND CITY AND COUNTY PARKS ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT ARE BOTH CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE HIGHEST PREDICTED STORM TIDES WILL OCCUR IF THE STORM PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 200 AM...NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH OVER MOST OF THE KEYS...AND SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS WERE RECORDED AT AUTOMATED PLATFORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF. IN ADDITION...THE FIRST OUTER SPIRAL RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WERE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE UPPER KEYS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED. ...MARINE IMPACTS... JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO PIERS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER HOMES...AND MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 93 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 92 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 35 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 41 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER J. RIZZO ** WTCA43 TJSJ 200619 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA MOVIENDOSE RAPIDAMENTE...PERO AUN MANTIENE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DESDE GOLDEN BEACH EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE LA FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE EN LA COSTA SUROESTE. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...Y LA HABANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN TAMBIEN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS EXUMAS Y ANDROS EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTAN EN EFFECTO DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE DEERFIELD BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET...Y TAMBIEN PARA LAKE OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...Y PINAR DEL RIO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.6 NORTE... LONGITUD 78.8 OESTE O COMO A 200 MILLAS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH...28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA ESTARA PASANDO CERCA O SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA TARDE EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DATOS DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE RITA NO SE HA ESTADO FORTALECIENDO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN TARDE EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN EL ESTE DE CUBA. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y DURANTE EL MARTES SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y SOBRE LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...23.6 NORTE...78.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 200630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 20-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CHHATISGARH AND ADJOINING ANDHRA PRADESH REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LIES CENTRED AT 0830 HRS. IST OF TODAY NEAR LAT.19.0 DEG N/ LONG.82.5 DEG E CLOSE TO JAGDALPUR. SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WESTNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH-WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 200600UTC 21.6N 152.0E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 210600UTC 23.0N 149.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.6 152.0 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NOT CHANGE ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTUS82 KEYW 200736 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-200930- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 335 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...EVACUATION IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT: IN KEY WEST... HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON DUCK KEY... HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA... ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVE. IN KEY LARGO... WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. CITY AND COUNTY OFFICES...AND CITY AND COUNTY PARKS ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT ARE BOTH CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE HIGHEST PREDICTED STORM TIDES WILL OCCUR IF THE STORM PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 330 AM...THE FIRST OUTER SPIRAL RAINBAND OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION AT MOLASSES REEF REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 51 KNOTS AT 152 AM IN A SQUALL AS THE RAINBAND MOVED THROUGH. NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH OVER MOST OF THE KEYS...AND NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER WATER. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. SOME LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO PIERS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MANY MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER HOMES...AND MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 93 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 92 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 35 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 41 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER J. RIZZO ** WTUS82 KEYW 200742 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-200930- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 335 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...EVACUATION IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT: IN KEY WEST... HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON DUCK KEY... HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA... ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVE. IN KEY LARGO... WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. CITY AND COUNTY OFFICES...AND CITY AND COUNTY PARKS ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT ARE BOTH CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE HIGHEST PREDICTED STORM TIDES WILL OCCUR IF THE STORM PASSAGE COINCIDES WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 330 AM...THE FIRST OUTER SPIRAL RAINBAND OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION AT MOLASSES REEF REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 51 KNOTS AT 152 AM IN A SQUALL AS THE RAINBAND MOVED THROUGH. NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH OVER MOST OF THE KEYS...AND NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER WATER. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. SOME LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO PIERS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MANY MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER HOMES...AND MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 93 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 92 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 35 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 41 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER J. RIZZO ** WTUS82 KTBW 200759 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CORRECTED THE TIME ON THE STORM INFORMATION SECTION ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST 25 TO 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RITA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE EAST GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES EXISTS IN RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SEAS TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COUPLE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 AM THIS MORNING. $$ CP ** WTNT42 KNHC 200830 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PHILIPPE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER AMORPHOUS- LOOKING MASS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE DEVELOPING SORT OF A COMMA SHAPE. THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SECTORS OF THE HURRICANE SUGGESTS SOME WESTERLY SHEARING...DUE TO THE FLOW AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF RITA. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT NONETHELESS PREDICTS SOME STRENGTHENING. THE OFFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILARLY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH UP TO 48 HOURS...BUT GOES A FAIR AMOUNT BELOW SHIPS THEREAFTER BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SIMPLY TOO STRONG FOR PHILIPPE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BY THAT TIME. I HAVE ESTIMATED THE CENTER TO BE WEST OF THE FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES...BOTH FOR CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE PRESENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR. TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORY PACKAGES. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 60W. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAYS 4-5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALONG THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY OF...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 18.8N 56.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 19.8N 57.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.3N 57.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 58.1W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 25.0N 58.6W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 34.0N 58.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 200830 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0900Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 56.8W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 56.8W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.8N 57.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 57.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 58.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 25.0N 58.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 34.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 200830 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A 0232Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE FURTHER EROSION OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPEDES THE OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ON THE DECLINE...WITH 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND DATA-T NUMBERS 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/3. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.6N 131.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 13.7N 131.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.2N 132.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 14.7N 132.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.4N 133.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 138.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 200830 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.7N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.7N 132.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.4N 133.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 131.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 200830 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...PHILIPPE HEADED SLOWLY TOWARD OPEN WATERS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 560 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.8 N... 56.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 200831 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.3N 57.6W 37 X X X 37 25.0N 58.6W X 13 5 3 21 23.0N 58.1W 13 10 1 1 25 BERMUDA X X X 6 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 200832 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0900Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 118.4W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 118.4W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 119.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 121.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 200834 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005 A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...ALMOST LIKE AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER MAX IS PROBABLY NOT A STRONG ENOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BE UNDERGOING A TRUE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT. MAX CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS. THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THAN SHOWN HERE. INITIAL MOTION...320/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MAX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEAKENED CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 4 DAYS BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AT DAY 5...AT WHICH TIME THE NOGAPS TRACK SEEMS TO HAVE ADDED AN UNREALISTICALLY TOO FAR SOUTH COMPONENT OF MOTION TO THE CONSENSUS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A BIT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 19.0N 118.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 119.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 121.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 122.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 200837 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 144.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 150SE 125SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 144.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 143.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 144.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.4N 145.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...135NE 115SE 105SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.0N 146.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.9N 147.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 95SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.4N 149.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 85SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.2N 151.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 27.5N 153.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 144.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 200837 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST MON SEP 19 2005 JOVA HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. WHILE THIS IS LIKELY JUST A JOG OR BRIEF LOOP IN THE MORE GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...IT HAS SHIFTED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. WITH NO REAL CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTICS...HAVE ADJUSTED THE CURRENT TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR AS NEW GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. WITH THE ADJUSTED TRACK STILL BRINGING JOVA GRADUALLY OVER COOLER WATERS...A GENERAL SLOW WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN KEPT FOR THE STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL BRINGING A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION SOME 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI LATE FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP JOVA ON THE PROJECTED NORTHWESTERLY COURSE THROUGH 96 HOURS OR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO DESTROY HER CIRCULATION. MODELS DO HOWEVER MOVE THIS UPPER LOW WESTWARD WITH TIME AFTER FRIDAY EVENING...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A MUCH WEAKENED JOVA TO ADOPT A MORE WESTERLY OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND 96 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...KEEPING THE ISLANDS IN LIGHT WINDS AS IT PASSES BY AND PROVIDING A MOIST...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH JOVA IS PULLED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEPEND THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THUS THE MAIN EFFECTS OF JOVA FOR THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN HEAVY SHOWERS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND UNCOMFORTABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 16.4N 144.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 16.8N 144.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 17.4N 145.8W 90 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 146.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 18.9N 147.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 149.1W 70 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 24.2N 151.1W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 27.5N 153.4W 60 KT $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 200838 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST MON SEP 19 2005 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.1 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HURRICANE JOVA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWESTWARD WELL EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AT THIS TIME. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...16.4 N...144.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 200842 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z TUE SEP 20 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 79.5W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 79.5W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.1N 81.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.4N 84.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.6N 87.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.7N 89.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 32.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 200843 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.4N 84.4W 46 X X X 46 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 2 4 24.6N 87.0W 5 25 X X 30 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 4 5 24.7N 89.3W X 11 10 2 23 MOBILE AL X X 1 4 5 MUHA 230N 824W 40 X X X 40 GULFPORT MS X X 1 6 7 MUAN 219N 850W 3 3 X X 6 BURAS LA X X 3 8 11 MYAK 241N 776W 4 X X X 4 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 1 8 9 MYNN 251N 775W 6 X X X 6 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 9 9 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 4 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 8 8 MMTM 222N 979W X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X X 9 9 MMTX 210N 974W X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X X 9 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X 2 3 5 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 8 8 MARATHON FL 86 X X X 86 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 7 7 MIAMI FL 37 X X X 37 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 7 7 W PALM BEACH FL 3 X X X 3 GULF 29N 85W X 3 3 1 7 KEY WEST FL 83 X X X 83 GULF 29N 87W X 2 6 3 11 MARCO ISLAND FL 45 X X X 45 GULF 28N 89W X 2 10 5 17 FT MYERS FL 25 X X X 25 GULF 28N 91W X X 6 10 16 VENICE FL 16 2 X X 18 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 13 14 TAMPA FL 3 2 X 1 6 GULF 28N 95W X X X 11 11 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 X 2 GULF 27N 96W X X X 10 10 ST MARKS FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 25N 96W X X X 10 10 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 2 1 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 200849 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC011-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ AMZ610-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT83 KNHC 200849 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W FLAMINGO-FL 25.14N 80.93W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC011-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ AMZ610-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTNT33 KNHC 200851 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200854 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE SOBRE AGUAS ABIERTAS... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.8 OESTE O COMO A 350 MILLAS...560 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE ALGUN AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5AM EDT...18.8 NORTE...56.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KTBW 200859 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RITA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE EAST GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A MINIMAL RISK OF TORNADOES EXISTS IN RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SEAS TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COUPLE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 830 AM THIS MORNING. $$ CP ** WTNT43 KNHC 200901 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF RITA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED... BUT THE CYCLONE STILL LACKS A CLEAR AND PERSISTENT EYEWALL SIGNATURE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT UPGRADING RITA TO A HURRICANE. A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 72 KT WINDS WOULD CORRESPOND TO 65 KT IN AN EYEWALL...BUT RITA DOES NOT HAVE A TRUE EYEWALL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 90 PERCENT IS NOT THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT AT THIS TIME. RITA REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/13. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE EARLY GOING...AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...UKMET... AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS STILL ON THE SOUTH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THIS POINT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE THE GULF LANDFALL MIGHT OCCUR. RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH VERY SOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT NOT OVERLY SO...WITH OUTFLOW A LITTLE SQUASHED TO THE NORTH AND NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTH...AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS ELONGATED. STEADY...BUT NOT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE UPPER PATTERN COULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MOST RECENT SHIPS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT QUITE GET RITA THERE...AND I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF RITA ENDS UP FALLING JUST SHORT OF THAT THRESHOLD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 23.7N 79.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 24.1N 81.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 24.4N 84.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.6N 87.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.7N 89.3W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 97.5W 35 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 200913 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 CORRECTED TO CLEAN UP SOME SLOPPY WRITING IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF RITA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED... BUT THE CYCLONE STILL LACKS A CLEAR AND PERSISTENT EYEWALL SIGNATURE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT UPGRADING RITA TO A HURRICANE. A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 72 KT WOULD CORRESPOND TO 65 KT AT THE SURFACE IN AN EYEWALL...BUT RITA DOES NOT HAVE A TRUE EYEWALL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 90 PERCENT IS NOT THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT. RITA REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/13. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE EARLY GOING...AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...UKMET... AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS STILL ON THE SOUTH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THIS POINT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE THE GULF LANDFALL MIGHT OCCUR. RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH VERY SOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT NOT OVERLY SO...WITH OUTFLOW A LITTLE SQUASHED TO THE NORTH AND NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTH...AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS ELONGATED. STEADY...BUT NOT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE UPPER PATTERN COULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MOST RECENT SHIPS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT QUITE GET RITA THERE...AND I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF RITA ENDS UP FALLING JUST SHORT OF THAT THRESHOLD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 23.7N 79.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 24.1N 81.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 24.4N 84.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.6N 87.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.7N 89.3W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 97.5W 35 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 200917 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-201230- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 515 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. TORNADO IMPACTS UPDATED. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 988 MB...OR 29.18 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT: IN KEY WEST... HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON DUCK KEY... HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA... ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVE. IN KEY LARGO... WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103. CITY AND COUNTY OFFICES...AND CITY AND COUNTY PARKS ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT ARE BOTH CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND LOW SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TODAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 515 AM...SPIRAL RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...FLORIDA BAY...AND THE UPPER KEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS...AND 30 TO 35 MPH OVER THE UPPER KEYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WERE SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE IMMINENT OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND WILL OCCUR BY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. SOME LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LIKELY IN MANY ISLAND COMMUNITIES BY LATER THIS MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 95 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 96 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 16 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 34 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 830 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER J. RIZZO ** WTCA43 TJSJ 200921 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MARTES 20 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE HACIA LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS DESCONTINUO TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y CAMBIO EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA ANDROS A UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS ABACOS...ANDROS...BERRY... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA Y NEW PROVIDENCE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DESDE GOLDEN BEACH EN LA COSTA SURESTE DE FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE...Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE EN LA COSTA SUROESTE. CONTINUA EN EFCTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...Y LA HABANA. ESTAN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE DEERFIELD BEACH HACIA EL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET...Y TAMBIEN PARA LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...Y PINAR DEL RIO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 79.5 OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS...255 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA ESTARA PASANDO CERCA DE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ALREDEDOR DEL MEDIODIA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. INFORMES DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO CONTINUAN INDICANDO QUE RITA NO SE HA ESTADO FORTALECIENDO DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 988 MB...29.18 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 4 A 7 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 4 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL OESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS Y EL ESTE DE CUBA. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL CENTRO Y NOROESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...23.7 NORTE...79.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...988 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH20 RPMM 200600 *** T T T WARNING 05 AT 0600 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 210600 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST AT 220600 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 230600 TWO TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTUS82 KMFL 200939 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-201500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 539 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...SPIRAL BANDS ROTATING ONSHORE MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED TORNADO INFORMATION UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION UPDATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED WIND EFFECTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 803 IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 5 PM EDT. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM EDT. MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...HURRICANE/INLAND HURRICANE WARNING. BROWARD...PALM BEACH AND COLLIER COUNTIES...TROPICAL STORM/INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING. GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND FIELD WITH TROPICAL STORM RITA HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SMALLER OVERNIGHT BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED IN MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS SPIRAL BANDS ARE ALREADY ROTATING ONSHORE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS. SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED IN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO FIND A SAFE PLACE AND STAY PUT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TODAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. IT WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 11 AM EDT. HOWEVER...THESE STORM TIDES COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. THIS STORM TIDE WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. SOME LOW LYING COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE FLOODED. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO EXPECTED. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT FLOODING THIS MORNING LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE FROM SOUTH BAY TO CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN TO THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK AND LAKEPORT. ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTION. ...WIND IMPACTS... A SPIRAL BAND MOVED THROUGH THE METRO ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND 430 AM EDT AND PRODUCED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 54 MPH AT POMPANO BEACH. SIMILAR WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SPIRAL BANDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE ONSHORE. FOR METRO PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 58 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. IN MIAMI- DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF TAMIAMI TRAIL...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS LASTING UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. FOR COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 39 TO 58 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SPIRAL BANDS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE METRO MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SPIRAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVING TONIGHT. FOR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INTERMITTENT SPIRAL BANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS ENCOUNTERING DOWNED POWER LINES SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THEM AND REPORT THEM TO FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WHEN COMING TO AN INTERSECTION WITH NO TRAFFIC SIGNALS DUE TO POWER OUTAGE...USE FOUR WAY STOP RULES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED TODAY. WHEN USING PORTABLE GENERATORS...REMEMBER TO PLACE GENERATORS IN A WELL VENTILATED PLACE AWAY FROM PEOPLE TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. CARBON MONOXIDE IS ODORLESS AND COLORLESS AND KILLS SILENTLY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...44 PERCENT IN MIAMI...29 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 14 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...59 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 40 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 25 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...8 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND...AND 5 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS ARE ALREADY 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. IN THE SPIRAL BANDS...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE MIAMI-DADE COASTAL WATERS. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE PORT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE VERY ROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE WATER UNTIL THE WEATHER IMPROVES. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE SPIRAL BANDS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS EVENING. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES TODAY AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA RAINFALL SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF RITA AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AS RITA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 830 AM EDT. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 200900UTC 21.2N 152.0E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 210900UTC 23.0N 148.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 023 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 131.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 131.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.7N 131.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.2N 132.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.7N 132.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.4N 133.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.9N 135.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 18.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 034 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 143.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 143.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.8N 144.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 17.4N 145.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.0N 146.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.9N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.4N 149.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 201006 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPH RPLL 200600 *** TTT WARNING 05 AT 0600 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.7N 124.0E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS MAXMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 210600 17.3N 121.9E AT 220600 20.0N 120.4E AT 230600 22.9N 118.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN34 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200935ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 008 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 118.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 118.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.0N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.1N 120.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.7N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.0N 122.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.0N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 201146 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT TO REACH RITA...WILL DETERMINE IF IT IS A HURRICANE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES ...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS