** WTUS82 KMFL 192359 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-200330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 810 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RAINBANDS INCREASING IN FREQUENCY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE EAST ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT AN OVERALL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...PERSONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COUNTY SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED... HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD COUNTY...PERSONS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ALL BROWARD COUNTY AND SOME MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON WHETHER SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY TUESDAY MAY BE ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE. THIS MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE HERBERT HOOVER DIKE...ESPECIALLY FROM FISHEATING CREEK TO MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. OVER INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF 39 TO 57 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 75 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...70 PERCENT IN MIAMI...50 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 38 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...25 PERCENT IN MIAMI...15 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 5 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...RANGES FROM 10 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD TO 7 PERCENT IN MIAMI TO 4 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE TO LESS THAN 2 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS 39 TO 57 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...75 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 60 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 60 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...30 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 20 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT AT EVERGLADES CITY...AROUND 15 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 10 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND FOR BISCAYNE BAY...SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS IN RAINBANDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AND A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BE MAINLY ON TUESDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTUS82 KEYW 200001 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200330- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 800 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB...OR 29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR GENERAL POPULATION. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY AND COUNTY OFFICES...AND CITY AND COUNTY PARKS ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT ARE CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT AND 1118 AM AND 1129 PM ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. MANY WILL BE DAMAGED...HUNDREDS MAY BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES WILL BE TOPPLED. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 96 TO 110 MPH ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO PIERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACT... ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 90 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 89 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 38 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 40 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ SD/CB/AF/MP/AD ** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT42 KNHC 200230 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ALTHOUGH PHILIPPE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...BASED ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 70 KT. SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED ON THE HURRICANE DUE TO A SWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF RITA...NEAR AND NORTH OF 20N. HOWEVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/5. TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60W. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.3N 56.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.2N 58.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 28.5N 59.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 37.0N 53.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 200231 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 56.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.2N 58.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 37.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 200231 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.5N 57.5W 44 X X X 44 24.2N 58.5W 1 14 4 2 21 22.3N 58.0W 16 8 1 1 26 BERMUDA X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 200231 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...PHILIPPE SLIGHTLY STRONGER... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.3 N... 56.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 200232 *** TCMEP3 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 118.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.5N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 200232 *** TCDEP3 HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK BANDING-TYPE EYE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT. MAX IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG...IT APPEARS THAT MAX HAS REACHED ITS MAX INTENSITY... SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO COOL AND THE SYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS...AND MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH ONLY FOR A SHORT WHILE. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT TRAVERSES 23 DEG C WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION...315/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS LIKELY. BY DAYS 4-5...MAX...OR ITS REMNANT...IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST OR SOUTH OF WEST FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 18.4N 117.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 19.4N 118.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 119.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 21.8N 122.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 125.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 200233 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 130.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 130.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 130.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 131.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.1N 131.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 132.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.2N 135.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 137.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 200236 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT DISORGANIZATION OF THE OUTER BANDS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 2038Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY CONFIRMED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE. IT APPEARS...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HURRICANE JOVA...AND IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KENNETH'S PATH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. AFTER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD OF MEANDERING WITHIN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KENNETH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 3 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID- LEVEL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A MID-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.6N 130.9W 80 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 13.7N 131.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 14.1N 131.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 14.7N 132.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 15.3N 133.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 17.2N 135.3W 40 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 137.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 200239 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.2N 82.1W 47 X X X 47 CEDAR KEY FL X 2 3 1 6 24.5N 84.9W 3 27 1 X 31 ST MARKS FL X X 2 2 4 24.8N 87.4W X 10 11 2 23 APALACHICOLA FL X X 4 3 7 MUCF 221N 805W 22 X X X 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 5 7 MUSN 216N 826W 4 2 X X 6 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 5 6 MUHA 230N 824W 29 1 X 1 31 MOBILE AL X X X 7 7 MUAN 219N 850W X 7 1 1 9 GULFPORT MS X X X 8 8 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 2 3 BURAS LA X X 1 11 12 MYAK 241N 776W 99 X X X 99 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 10 10 MYNN 251N 775W 41 X X X 41 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 9 9 MYGF 266N 787W 7 1 X X 8 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 7 7 MMSO 238N 982W X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 8 8 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 4 5 FREEPORT TX X X X 7 7 MARATHON FL 57 X X X 57 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 6 6 MIAMI FL 42 X X 1 43 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL 20 1 X X 21 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 4 4 FT PIERCE FL 6 3 1 X 10 GULF 29N 85W X 1 6 3 10 COCOA BEACH FL 1 3 X 1 5 GULF 29N 87W X X 6 6 12 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 1 X 2 GULF 28N 89W X X 6 10 16 KEY WEST FL 50 X X X 50 GULF 28N 91W X X 2 13 15 MARCO ISLAND FL 36 2 X X 38 GULF 28N 93W X X X 12 12 FT MYERS FL 22 7 X X 29 GULF 28N 95W X X X 9 9 VENICE FL 9 13 1 X 23 GULF 27N 96W X X X 8 8 TAMPA FL 1 10 2 X 13 GULF 25N 96W X X X 7 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200240 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE LEVEMENTE MAS FUERTE... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.8 OESTE O COMO A 340 MILLAS...545 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ANTICIPAN UN LEVE AUMENTO EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMABA EN 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...18.3 NORTE...56.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR ESTRADA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPA23 PHFO 200244 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 143.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 143.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 143.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.6N 144.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.2N 145.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.7N 145.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.7N 146.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 23.4N 149.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 152.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16N 144W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 200245 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE JOVA REMAINS ON A PATH A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM HAWAII. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES... 1285 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...16.2 N...143.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 200245 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA ALMOST TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES ANDROS ISLAND...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA WEST COAST... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT RITA IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ANDROS ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 200246 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH AT 100 KNOTS OR 115 MPH AND WAS ESTIMATED TO BE A T5.5 AT 2 PM HST. SINCE THEN CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED WITH ITS COLD EYE WALL BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN...ITS STEADY NORTHWESTWARD PATH IS TAKEN INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER CROSSING THE 80DEGF ISOTHERM AND INTO PARTIALLY SHEARING SOUTHWESTERLIES AT UPPER LEVELS. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AN ABRUPT WEAKENING DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED BY THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY MODELS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY OUTLINED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS... PARTICULARLY THE CONSENSUS BASED GUNS GUNA AND CONU AND HAVE SPEEDED UP OUR LATER PERIOD MOTIONS IN DEFERENCE TO THEM. THIS WOULD PLACE JOVA 300 TO 400 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AT ITS CLOSEST POINT FRIDAY/SATURDAY. FORECASTER MATSUDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.2N 143.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 16.6N 144.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.2N 145.1W 90 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.7N 145.9W 85 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 18.7N 146.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W 70 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 23.4N 149.4W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 26.5N 152.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 200246 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 77.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 77.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.2N 82.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.5N 84.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 77.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 200100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/200051ZSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 153.0E TO 21.9N 149.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 192330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 152.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.9N 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVEC- TION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210100Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 200100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/200051ZSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 153.0E TO 21.9N 149.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 192330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 152.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.9N 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVEC- TION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210100Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E.// ** WTNT83 KNHC 200252 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-657-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC011-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-200900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050920T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ AMZ610-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTPN22 PGTW 200100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/200051ZSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 153.0E TO 21.9N 149.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 192330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 152.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.9N 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVEC- TION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210100Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E.// ** WTUS82 KTBW 200258 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200530- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST 25 TO 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RITA. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE EAST GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES EXISTS IN RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SEAS TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COUPLE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 230 AM THIS MORNING. $$ CP ** WTPN22 PGTW 200100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/200051ZSEP2005// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8N 153.0E TO 21.9N 149.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 192330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 152.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.9N 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVEC- TION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210100Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 200000 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 0000 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST MOVING NORTH WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER EASTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTO PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE MTERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 210000 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 220000 ONE NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE EAST AT 230000 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTNT43 KNHC 200306 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 RITA REMAINS JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STORM PRODUCED A MASSIVE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE EVENING...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN BANDING. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION HAS NOT YET PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT 39 N MI NORTHWEST OF OF THE CENTER...AND A CENTER DROPSONDE OF 992 MB WITH 33 KT SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THE THIS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER RITA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THE GULF COAST RIDGE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST...THUS FORECASTING RITA TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS IN 4-5 DAYS TIME. THE GFDL AND GFS CALL FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FATHER EASTWARD AND FORECAST RITA TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES... CALLING FOR A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD. UP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT... CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT RITA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... ALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT THE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE. THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 23.3N 77.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 23.7N 79.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 82.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 84.9W 95 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 87.4W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 91.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.0W 60 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 200319 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA CON VIENTOS CASI HURACANADO MIENTRAS SE ACERCA A ANDROS ISLAND...NUEVOS AVISOS EMITIDOS PARA LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN FUE EXTENDIDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EAST CAPE SABLE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO PARA TODO LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA EAST CAPE CABLE LUEGO AL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN VOGOR PARA LAS PROVINCIAS CUBANAS DE VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...Y LA HABANA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS EXUMAS Y LA ISLA ANDROS EN LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFFECTO DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA AL SUR HASTA NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFFECTO A LOLARGO DE LA COSTA OESTE DE FLORIDA AL NORTH DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE AL NORTE DE DEERFIELD BEACH AL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET...Y PARA LAKE OKEECHOBEE. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...Y PINAR DEL RIO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL RESTO DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES Y DEL NOROESTE. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD LO ANTES POSIBLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 77.8 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...195 KM... AL SUR-SURESTE DE NASSAU Y COMO A 270 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA PASARA SOBRE O AL SUR DE LA ISLA ANDROS EN LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS...ACERCANDOSE A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EL MARTES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DATOS OBTENIDOS DEL SATELITE Y RADAR INDICAN QUE RITA SE ESTA ORGANIZANDO MEJOR Y PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LAS ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON ANTES DE ACERCARSE A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION AUTOMATIZADA EN LA ISLA ANDROS RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 40 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA BASADO EN REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 990 MB...29.232 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN EL ESTE Y EN EL CENTRO DE CUBA. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. TORNADOS AISLADOS SON POSIBLES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE Y DURANTE EL MARTES SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA Y SOBRE LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...23.3 NORTE...77.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 200322 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200630- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1125 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND INFORMATION UPDATED. TORNADO INFORMATION UPDATED. RAINFALL INFORMATION UPDATED. WIND PROBABILITY INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR GENERAL POPULATION. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY ACTIVATED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY AND COUNTY OFFICES...AND CITY AND COUNTY PARKS ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT ARE CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. THE HIGHEST FORECASTED STORM TIDES WILL OCCUR SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT AND 1118 AM AND 1129 PM ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT EXTENSIVE ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES...INCLUDING PEELING OFF OF ROOF MATERIAL AND IN SOME CASES...THE ROOF LIFTING OFF. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. MANY WILL BE DAMAGED...HUNDREDS MAY BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES WILL BE TOPPLED. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 96 TO 110 MPH ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO PIERS IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER HOMES...AND MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 93 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 92 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 35 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 41 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ SD/CB/AF/MP/AD ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200335ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200345ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 033 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 143.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 143.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.6N 144.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.2N 145.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.7N 145.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.7N 146.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.6N 147.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.4N 149.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.5N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z. REFER TO REF A HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) AND REF B HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN34 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200335ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 117.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 117.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.4N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 119.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 21.4N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.8N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.0N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.0N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z. REFER TO REF A HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) AND REF B HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/200345ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 022 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 130.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 130.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 13.7N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.1N 131.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 14.7N 132.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 15.3N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 17.2N 135.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 18.5N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 19.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z. REFER TO REF A HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TO REF B HURRICANE 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPLL 200000 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 0000 20 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.2N 124.8E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS MAXMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 210000 16.3N 122.3E AT 220000 19.0N 120.5E AT 230000 21.8N 119.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTUS82 KMFL 200428 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-201030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1200 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RAINBANDS INCREASING IN FREQUENCY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...PERSONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THEIR LOCATION. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD COUNTY...PERSONS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS FREQUENTLY ABOVE 40 MPH. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ALL BROWARD COUNTY AND SOME MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON WHETHER SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE STORM TIDES COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PERSIST. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE COULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL BY THEN. ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BY TUESDAY MAY BE ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE. THIS MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE HERBERT HOOVER DIKE...ESPECIALLY FROM FISHEATING CREEK TO MOORE HAVEN TO CLEWISTON. ...WIND IMPACTS... ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AFTER DAWN. HIGHER WINDS...40 TO 5O MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE ONSET OF THE HIGHER GUSTS IN RAIN BANDS ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAWN. OVER WESTERN PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY PARTICULARLY AFTER DAWN. COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY COULD SEE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES CAN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE STORM...WOULD INCREASE THE EXPECTED WIND IMPACTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 75 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...60 PERCENT IN MIAMI...50 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 30 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 30 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...20 PERCENT IN MIAMI...10 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 5 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...75 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS AROUND 45 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...30 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 20 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...BISCAYNE BAY...AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WINDS IN RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 50 KNOTS WILL BEGIN EARLY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE DAWN...ON THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BY LATER IN THE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER DURING THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VERY ROUGH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DAWN TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO ABOVE 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE STORM...WOULD INCREASE THE EXPECTED WIND IMPACTS. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AND A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RAIN BANDS TOWARDS DAWN. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA FROM NOW ON. THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS RISK WILL PROBABLY BE GREATEST TOWARDS THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINS TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN BANDS ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 AM. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PS ** WTNT33 KNHC 200551 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 ...RITA MOVING FASTER...BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 200552 *** GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 143.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2005 16.0N 143.1W STRONG 12UTC 20.09.2005 16.9N 144.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 17.3N 145.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.3N 146.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 16.0N 147.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 16.9N 148.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 16.3N 149.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 16.9N 150.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.1N 151.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.0N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 15.4N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 14.9N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 14.7N 157.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2005 HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 130.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2005 13.1N 130.5W STRONG 12UTC 20.09.2005 13.6N 131.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 13.8N 132.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.3N 133.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 15.2N 134.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 15.8N 136.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 16.8N 138.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 17.4N 139.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 17.6N 141.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 17.5N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 18.4N 145.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 19.0N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2005 19.7N 148.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2005 HURRICANE MAX ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 117.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.9N 117.2W MODERATE 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.2N 118.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.2N 119.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 21.3N 119.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.6N 120.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 21.3N 120.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 20.1N 120.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.8N 102.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2005 10.8N 102.3W MODERATE 12UTC 20.09.2005 11.3N 102.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 12.1N 103.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 12.9N 104.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 13.7N 105.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 14.1N 106.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.3N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.3N 107.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.4N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 17.9N 108.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 17.9N 108.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 19.1N 109.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 20.1N 111.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2005 HURRICANE PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 56.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.4N 56.3W STRONG 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.2N 57.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.7N 57.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 22.6N 57.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 24.7N 58.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 26.4N 59.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 28.6N 60.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 30.7N 60.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 33.8N 59.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 35.2N 58.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 36.7N 52.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 77.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2005 23.2N 77.1W STRONG 12UTC 20.09.2005 23.7N 79.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 23.7N 83.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 23.8N 86.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 24.1N 88.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.2N 91.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 24.7N 94.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 25.9N 96.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 29.0N 97.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 32.4N 97.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 35.9N 96.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 39.2N 91.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2005 40.8N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY