** WTNT33 KNHC 191800 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING. DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTIN01 DEMS 191800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 19 09 1730 UTC 19 SEPT 2005 PART I :-MORNINGS CYCLONIC STORM OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA AND ADJOINING SOUTH ORISSA CLOSE TO KALINGAPATNAM LAY 50 KMS WEST OF KALINGPATNAM AT 190900 UTC (.) IT REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AT 191200 UTC NEAR LAT.18.5 DEG.N/LONG 83.5 DEG.E (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.) PART II:- THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SEA LEVEL EXTENDING FROM NORTH MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KARNATAKA COAST PERSISTS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII (N) (.) PART III :-FORECAST ARB-A1 : ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:- SW/W 15/20 KTS BEC NW/W TO THE EAST OF 72 DEG E (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER :- SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 : ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:- SW/W 20/25 KTS (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS.(.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) BOB-A3:BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO LAT 13 DEG N EAST OF 80 DEG E I) WIND:-SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC 20/25 KTS TO THE NORTH OF 05 DEG N (.)WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER :-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT TO MODERATE BEC ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) BOB-A4 : BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT 13 DEG. N. PART I : WEST OF 90 DEG EAST : WIND:-WIND CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS AROUND CENTRED AT 0300 UTC CYCLONIC STORM LAT.18.5 DEG N/ LONG.84.0 DEG E WITHIN RADIUS OF 500 KM (.) WIND IN GUST MAY INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-HIGH(.) PART II : EAST OF 90 DEG E WIND : SW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE NORTH OF 19 DEG N (.) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RAIN (.) STATE OF SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTUS82 KMFL 191806 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-192200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE EAST ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EFFECTIVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MILES AN HOUR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES NEAR FLORIDA BAY SHOULD ENACT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. SHOULD RITA MAKE ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS WOULD BE WORSE THAN DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD SCHOOLS ARE OPEN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL ISSUE RECOMMENDATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AMONG WHICH WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. MANY COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AS MORE FREQUENT RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT. NEAR SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 40 MPH WILL BEGIN WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF 39 TO 57 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 80 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...75 PERCENT IN MIAMI...65 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 53 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS HIGHER 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...31 PERCENT IN MIAMI...20 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 11 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...RANGES FROM 11 PERCENT IN MIAMI TO 6 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE TO 3 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS 39 TO 57 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...74 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS GREATER THAN 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...33 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 25 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE 15 PERCENT AT EVERGLADES CITY AND 13 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 10 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS IN RAINBANDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS THIS AFTERNOON REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTNT33 KNHC 191800 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING. DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTIN01 DEMS 191800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 19 09 1730 UTC 19 SEPT 2005 PART I :-MORNINGS CYCLONIC STORM OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA AND ADJOINING SOUTH ORISSA CLOSE TO KALINGAPATNAM LAY 50 KMS WEST OF KALINGPATNAM AT 190900 UTC (.) IT REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AT 191200 UTC NEAR LAT.18.5 DEG.N/LONG 83.5 DEG.E (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.) PART II:- THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SEA LEVEL EXTENDING FROM NORTH MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KARNATAKA COAST PERSISTS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII (N) (.) PART III :-FORECAST ARB-A1 : ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:- SW/W 15/20 KTS BEC NW/W TO THE EAST OF 72 DEG E (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER :- SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 : ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:- SW/W 20/25 KTS (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS.(.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) BOB-A3:BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO LAT 13 DEG N EAST OF 80 DEG E I) WIND:-SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC 20/25 KTS TO THE NORTH OF 05 DEG N (.)WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER :-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT TO MODERATE BEC ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) BOB-A4 : BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT 13 DEG. N. PART I : WEST OF 90 DEG EAST : WIND:-WIND CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS AROUND CENTRED AT 0300 UTC CYCLONIC STORM LAT.18.5 DEG N/ LONG.84.0 DEG E WITHIN RADIUS OF 500 KM (.) WIND IN GUST MAY INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-HIGH(.) PART II : EAST OF 90 DEG E WIND : SW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE NORTH OF 19 DEG N (.) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RAIN (.) STATE OF SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTUS82 KEYW 191821 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-192130- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 225 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL OF THE UPPER KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY LARGO IS TO COMMENCE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB...OR 29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY KEY WEST. A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF THE UPPER KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY LARGO WILL COMMENCE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME... POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS WILL BE CLOSING TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. GREYHOUND REPORTS EXCELLENT AVAILABILITY OF SEATS ON SERVICE OUT OF KEY WEST AND THE REMAINING KEYS. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. MANY WILL BE DAMAGED...HUNDREDS MAY BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES WILL BE TOPPLED. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 96 TO 110 MPH ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO PIERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 87 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 84 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 34 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 35 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTUS82 KMFL 191806 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-192200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE EAST ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EFFECTIVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MILES AN HOUR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES NEAR FLORIDA BAY SHOULD ENACT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. SHOULD RITA MAKE ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS WOULD BE WORSE THAN DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD SCHOOLS ARE OPEN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL ISSUE RECOMMENDATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AMONG WHICH WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. MANY COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AS MORE FREQUENT RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT. NEAR SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 40 MPH WILL BEGIN WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF 39 TO 57 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 80 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...75 PERCENT IN MIAMI...65 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 53 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS HIGHER 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...31 PERCENT IN MIAMI...20 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 11 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...RANGES FROM 11 PERCENT IN MIAMI TO 6 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE TO 3 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS 39 TO 57 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...74 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS GREATER THAN 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...33 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 25 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE 15 PERCENT AT EVERGLADES CITY AND 13 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 10 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS IN RAINBANDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS THIS AFTERNOON REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTCA43 TJSJ 191844 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SE APROXIMA A INTENSIDAD HURACANADA SOBRE EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA DESCONTINUADO TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA TURKS Y CAICOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS EXUMAS Y ANDROS EN LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL RESTO DE TODAS LAS BAHAMAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY Y AL OESTE HASTA CAPE CABLE...Y PARA TODO LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA Y MATANZAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS Y CIENFUEGOS. ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA AL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH...Y ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL NORTE DE DEERFIELD BEACH AL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD LO ANTES POSIBLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.1 NORTE... LONGITUD 75.9 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE GEORGETOWN EN GREAT EXUMA EN LAS BAHAMAS CENTRAL. ESTA POSICION ESTA COMO A 165 MILLAS ...265 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU Y COMO A 380 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...23 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA PASARA SOBRE O CERCA DE LA ISLA ANDROS EN LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE...ACERCANDOSE A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EL MARTES EN LA MANANA. DATOS DE UN RADIOMETRO DE MICROONDA A BORDO DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA NOAA INDICABAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...115 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y RITA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA FUE DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN EL ESTE Y EN EL CENTRO DE CUBA. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE DE CUBA...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...23.1 NORTE...75.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCTOR BENJAMIN APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KEYW 191942 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-192130- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 350 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB...OR 29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. GREYHOUND REPORTS THAT THE LAST SCHEDULED BUS OUT OF KEY WEST WILL DEPART AT 545 PM TODAY. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. MANY WILL BE DAMAGED...HUNDREDS MAY BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES WILL BE TOPPLED. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 96 TO 110 MPH ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO PIERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 87 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 84 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 34 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 35 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTNT32 KNHC 192037 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 56.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 192037 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.9N 57.2W 43 X X X 43 23.7N 58.5W 1 13 5 2 21 21.8N 57.8W 15 10 1 X 26 BERMUDA X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 192037 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 2100Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 56.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 56.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 56.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 56.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 57.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.7N 58.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 31.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 192038 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT DAY AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH HAS WEAKENED. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DATA T-NUMBERS OF 5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND 4.0...65 KT...FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 90 KT. SINCE SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE AREA...SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY STILL REDEVELOP. THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO RELAX RESULTING IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. KENNETH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST NINE HOURS. KENNETH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION...AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE ALLOWING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.4N 130.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 13.5N 130.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 13.8N 131.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 14.9N 132.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W 50 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 138.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 192039 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/6 KT. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED AS WELL. THE FORECAST MOTION WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY N THE EXTENDED RANGE SINCE BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS TRACKS BEGIN TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS TRACKS. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM RITA WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO A 90-KT HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INCREASE IN 96 TO 120 HOURS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY BUT IS FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.0N 56.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 56.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 21.8N 57.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 23.7N 58.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.5N 59.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 56.0W 80 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 192039 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 130.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.8N 131.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.9N 132.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 192040 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 2100Z MON SEP 19 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 117.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 117.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 119.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 120.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 125SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 21.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 192044 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 2100Z MON SEP 19 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS MODIFIED WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE....AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 75.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.7N 78.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.2N 80.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.6N 83.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.9N 85.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.5N 90.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 192045 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.2N 80.9W 46 X X X 46 TAMPA FL X 10 4 1 15 24.6N 83.5W 4 26 X X 30 CEDAR KEY FL X 2 5 2 9 24.9N 85.9W X 11 10 2 23 ST MARKS FL X X 2 4 6 MUCF 221N 805W 15 1 X X 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 6 9 MUSN 216N 826W 2 3 1 X 6 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 7 9 MUHA 230N 824W 14 9 X X 23 PENSACOLA FL X X X 8 8 MUAN 219N 850W X 4 3 2 9 MOBILE AL X X X 7 7 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 2 3 GULFPORT MS X X X 8 8 MYSM 241N 745W 10 X X X 10 BURAS LA X X X 11 11 MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 9 9 MYAK 241N 776W 85 X X X 85 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 8 8 MYNN 251N 775W 52 X X X 52 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 5 5 MYGF 266N 787W 18 1 X X 19 GALVESTON TX X X X 5 5 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 5 5 FREEPORT TX X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL 44 X X X 44 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3 MIAMI FL 39 1 X X 40 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL 22 3 1 X 26 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL 6 9 1 X 16 GULF 29N 85W X X 7 5 12 COCOA BEACH FL 1 7 1 1 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 4 9 13 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 2 2 1 5 GULF 28N 89W X X 2 13 15 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 13 13 KEY WEST FL 34 5 X X 39 GULF 28N 93W X X X 10 10 MARCO ISLAND FL 21 12 X 1 34 GULF 28N 95W X X X 6 6 FT MYERS FL 9 18 X X 27 GULF 27N 96W X X X 4 4 VENICE FL 2 19 1 X 22 GULF 25N 96W X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 192053 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS MODIFIED WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE....AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 345 MILES... 560 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 192058 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 RITA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS... BUT IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET. THE STORM IS PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER... BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND INCREASINGLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW INDICATING LESSENING SHEAR. THE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS OFTEN OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD. DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...RECENTLY INDICATED SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS 62 KT ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 994-995 MB... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT. RITA IS ON TRACK... AND AS ANTICIPATED IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW AT 285/12. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT OR WEST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BRINGING THE CONSENSUS INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVERALL THE NEW SUITE OF GUIDANCE PROVIDES LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT TO SPEED IT UP JUST SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER... THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS OVER THE GULF REMAINS SIGNIFICANT...SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MIGRATE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CURVE RITA NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN FORECAST A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHWARD BEND TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUSIANA BORDER REGION. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT MUST AGAIN BE EMPHASIZED THAT FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES. EVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105 KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.7N 78.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.2N 80.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.6N 83.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 24.9N 85.9W 100 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 90.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 105 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 96.0W 70 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 192102 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 2100Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 143.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 143.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 142.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.0N 143.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 125 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.4N 144.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.9N 145.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 146.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.1N 147.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 147.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.7N 149.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16N 143W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 192104 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING A BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGED FROM T4.0...65 KT...FROM TAFB AND T3.0...45 KT...FROM SAB. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1336Z THIS MORNING JUSTIFIES INCREASING BOTH THE 34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE RESPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS SMALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING MUCH COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 19N. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STEER MAX IN A WEST- NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIODS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.5N 117.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.7N 119.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 120.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 124.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 127.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 192103 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-200100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 510 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...OUTERMOST RAINBANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS UPDATED STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WIND IMPACTS UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE EAST ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 14 MILES AN HOUR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WITH A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...PERSONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COUNTY SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THEIR LOCATION. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED... HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD COUNTY...PERSONS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS ARE OPEN. ALL BROWARD COUNTY AND SOME MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH NEARBY RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. PUBLIC SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN EVERGLADES CITY...GOODLAND AND CHOKOLOSKEE. NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE ON WHETHER SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE...INCLUDING FLAMINGO...AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO BOTH AN ONSHORE WIND AND THE NORMAL SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... THIS EVENING...SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AS MORE FREQUENT RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH... MAINLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF 39 TO 57 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND 75 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...70 PERCENT IN MIAMI...50 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 38 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...25 PERCENT IN MIAMI...15 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 5 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...RANGES FROM 10 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD TO 7 PERCENT IN MIAMI TO 4 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE TO LESS THAN 2 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS 39 TO 57 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...75 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 60 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS FROM 58 TO 73 MPH IS AROUND 60 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK...30 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 20 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...74 MPH OR HIGHER...ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT AT EVERGLADES CITY...AROUND 15 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 10 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND FOR BISCAYNE BAY...SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS IN RAINBANDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KNOTS WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH... SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AND A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BE MAINLY ON TUESDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9 PM. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTPA33 PHFO 192105 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A TRACK KEEPING IT A SAFE DISTANCE FROM HAWAII FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 143.1 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...1350 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...15.6 N...143.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 192106 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-657-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC011-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC015-021-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ AMZ610-200300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050919T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-FL 26.95N 80.80W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 192107 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NOR NORESTE... ...PASANDO BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.5 OESTE O COMO A 355 MILLAS...615 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ANTICIPAN MUY POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARAS...29.18 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...18.0 NORTE...56.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTOR ESTRADA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH20 RPMM 191800 *** T T T WARNING 03 AT 1800 19 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WIND ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 201800 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST AT 211800 ONE SEVEN POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST AT 221800 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPA43 PHFO 192122 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST MON SEP 19 2005 DUE TO COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS WE WERE UNABLE TO RECEIVE UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY ENOUGH FOR THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER SYNOPTICS HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE AND HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER WE HAVE INCREASED THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO A 5.5 OR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO 100 KNOTS OR 115 MPH. SOME UPPER LEVEL SHEARING ALONG WITH LESS THAN 80 DEGF SEAS AHEAD OF JOVA WARRANTS THE WEAKENING TREND. FORECASTER MATSUDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.6N 143.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 143.9W 100 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 16.4N 144.8W 90 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 16.9N 145.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 146.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 19.1N 147.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 20.8N 147.9W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 22.7N 149.6W 60 KT $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 192123 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...SE ESPERA QUE RITA SE CONVIERTIRA EN HURACAN ANTES DE ALCANZAR LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL FUE EMITIDO PARA LAKE OKEECHOBEE EN EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA MODIFICO SUS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA CUBA. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA Y MATANZAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS Y CIENFUEGOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY Y AL OESTE HASTA CAPE CABLE...Y PARA TODO LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS EXUMAS Y ANDROS EN LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL RESTO DE TODAS LAS BAHAMAS. ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA AL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH...Y ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL NORTE DE DEERFIELD BEACH AL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUROESTE DE FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DEBEN COMPLETARSE LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD LO ANTES POSIBLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLE DENTRO DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA DENTRO DE 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 76.5 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...210 KM... AL SUR-SURESTE DE NASSAU Y COMO A 345 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE RITA PASARA SOBRE O CERCA DE LA ISLA ANDROS EN LAS BAHAMAS ESTA NOCHE...ACERCANDOSE A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EL MARTES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y RITA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA FUE DE 995 MB...29.38 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN EL ESTE Y EN EL CENTRO DE CUBA. TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE DE CUBA...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.3 NORTE...76.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...995 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCTOR BENJAMIN APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KTBW 192130 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200530- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 530 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 495 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH RITA MOVES AS THE STORM PASSES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL RITA MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... AS WITH MOST ANY HURRICANE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RITA MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT GENERATE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC OUTBREAKS...SO THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS LOW. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SEAS TO RISE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS CLOSELY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM WEST OF THE REGION. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 PM TONIGHT. $$ EO ** WTUS82 KEYW 192131 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200030- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. ADDED TORNADO IMPACT INFORMATION. WIND PROBABILITY INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 994 MB...OR 29.35 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. GREYHOUND REPORTS THAT THE LAST SCHEDULED BUS OUT OF KEY WEST WILL DEPART AT 545 PM TODAY. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT AND 1118 AM AND 1129 PM ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. MANY WILL BE DAMAGED...HUNDREDS MAY BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES AND POWER POLES WILL BE TOPPLED. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 96 TO 110 MPH ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO PIERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. ...TORNADO IMPACT... ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 90 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 89 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 38 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 40 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ SD/CB/AF/MP/AD ** WTPH RPLL 191800 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 1800 19 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.6N 125.5E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 03MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS MAXMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 201800 15.5N 123.3 AT 211800 17.6N 121.3E AT 221800 19.8N 119.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN32 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/192130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/192145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 021 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 130.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 130.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.5N 130.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.8N 131.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.2N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.9N 132.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.5N 134.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 19.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN34 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/192130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/192135ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 116.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 116.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.4N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.7N 119.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.4N 120.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.5N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.5N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/192135ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/192145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 032 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 142.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 142.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.0N 143.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.4N 144.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.9N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.5N 146.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUA