** WTNT33 KNHC 191201 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THIRD PARAGRAPH... ...RITA ENTERING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF RITA COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KMFL 191215 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-191600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS A THREAT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED PREPAREDNESS RECOMMENDATIONS AND COUNTY INFORMATION UPDATED STATUS OF EVERGLADES AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARKS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTH AND WEST TO CAPE SABLE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND METROPOLITAN BROWARD...ALL OF MIAMI-DADE AND ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTH TO CHOKOLOSKEE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MILES AN HOUR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO MIAMI-DADE AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. IT COULD BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD THE FORECAST CHANGE AND A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ANNOUNCE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AROUND 11 AM TODAY. THE LIKELY RECOMMENDATIONS WILL BE FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED AND THESE WILL ALSO BE ANNOUNCED LATER TODAY...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT A DECISION FOR TUESDAY WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE AND FLAMINGO FACILITY WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSING THIS MORNING INCLUDING ELLIOTT KEY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF BISCAYNE BAY INCLUDING COCONUT GROVE AND POSSIBLY FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS CAN ALSO EXPECT FLOODING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGES FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...62 PERCENT IN MIAMI ...52 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 42 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 8 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND 63 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DETAILING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL IN AREAS FROM BROWARD TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KMFL 191215 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-191600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS A THREAT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED PREPAREDNESS RECOMMENDATIONS AND COUNTY INFORMATION UPDATED STATUS OF EVERGLADES AND BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARKS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTH AND WEST TO CAPE SABLE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND METROPOLITAN BROWARD...ALL OF MIAMI-DADE AND ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTH TO CHOKOLOSKEE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MILES AN HOUR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO MIAMI-DADE AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. IT COULD BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD THE FORECAST CHANGE AND A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ANNOUNCE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AROUND 11 AM TODAY. THE LIKELY RECOMMENDATIONS WILL BE FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED AND THESE WILL ALSO BE ANNOUNCED LATER TODAY...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT A DECISION FOR TUESDAY WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE AND FLAMINGO FACILITY WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSING THIS MORNING INCLUDING ELLIOTT KEY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF BISCAYNE BAY INCLUDING COCONUT GROVE AND POSSIBLY FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS CAN ALSO EXPECT FLOODING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGES FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...62 PERCENT IN MIAMI ...52 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 42 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 8 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND 63 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DETAILING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL IN AREAS FROM BROWARD TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KEYW 191218 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-191530- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 818 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 9 MPH. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO EVACUATE TODAY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS...NON-RESIDENTS... AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FOLLOWING HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN AT NOON TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY: STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48.5 GULFSIDE IN MARATHON. CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 89 IN ISLAMORADA. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. NO SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SINCE THERE IS NOW A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL RESIDENTS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED...AS OF 700 AM. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE BRIDGES MAY BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER TODAY. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 79 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 78 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 24 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 26 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTNT63 KNHC 191311 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 910 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...CLARIFICATION OF CUBAN HURRICANE WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE SUPERCEDES THE PREVIOUS CUBAN WARNING INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE 8 AM EDT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 191314 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191530- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 818 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 9 MPH. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO EVACUATE TODAY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS...NON-RESIDENTS...AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FOLLOWING HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN AT NOON TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48.5 GULFSIDE IN MARATHON. CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 89 IN ISLAMORADA. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. NO SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SINCE THERE IS NOW A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL RESIDENTS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED...AS OF 700 AM. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE BRIDGES MAY BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER TODAY. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION... RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST AS DANGEROUS AS DURING HURRICANE KATRINA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 79 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 78 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 24 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 26 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTUS82 KMFL 191322 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-191600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 921 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS A THREAT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED COUNTY INFORMATION FOR BROWARD ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTH AND WEST TO CAPE SABLE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND METROPOLITAN BROWARD...ALL OF MIAMI-DADE AND ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTH TO CHOKOLOSKEE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MILES AN HOUR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO MIAMI-DADE AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. IT COULD BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD THE FORECAST CHANGE AND A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ANNOUNCE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AROUND 11 AM TODAY. THE LIKELY RECOMMENDATIONS WILL BE FOR MOBILE HOMES AND A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED AND THESE WILL ALSO BE ANNOUNCED LATER TODAY...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT A DECISION FOR TUESDAY WILL BE MADE LATER TODAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE AND FLAMINGO FACILITY WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSING THIS MORNING INCLUDING ELLIOTT KEY. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL HAVE A PRESS CONFERENCE AT NOON TODAY TO RECOMMEND EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCATIONS WILL BE ANNOUNCED AT THAT PRESS CONFERENCE. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. BROWARD SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF BISCAYNE BAY INCLUDING COCONUT GROVE AND POSSIBLY FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. SOME COASTAL ACCESS ROADS CAN ALSO EXPECT FLOODING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGES FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...62 PERCENT IN MIAMI ...52 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 42 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 8 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND 63 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DETAILING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL IN AREAS FROM BROWARD TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KEYW 191337 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191530- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 930 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 9 MPH. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. RESIDENTS OF THE LOWER KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO EVACUATE TODAY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS...NON-RESIDENTS...AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FOLLOWING HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN AT NOON TODAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48.5 GULFSIDE IN MARATHON. CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 89 IN ISLAMORADA. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. NO SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...SINCE THERE IS NOW A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL RESIDENTS. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED...AS OF 700 AM. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. LOWER KEYS MEDICAL CENTER IS CLOSED. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. MARATHON AIRPORT SHOULD REMAIN OPERATIONAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP IMMEDIATELY. THE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER THIS MORNING. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS SEVERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION... RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST AS DANGEROUS AS DURING HURRICANE KATRINA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 79 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 78 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 24 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 26 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPN21 PGTW 191400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191351Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 190230)// RMKS// 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 128.5E TO 14.3N 125.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E, APPROXI- MATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. A 190915Z QUIK- SCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN- TER (LLCC). RECENT ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN- DICATES DISORGANIZED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR- FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201400Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 191400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191351Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 190230)// RMKS// 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 128.5E TO 14.3N 125.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.8E, APPROXI- MATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. A 190915Z QUIK- SCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN- TER (LLCC). RECENT ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IN- DICATES DISORGANIZED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR- FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201400Z.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 191430 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 1500Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 142.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 150SE 100SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 142.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.9N 143.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 144.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 50SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...170NE 115SE 85SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 144.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...155NE 100SE 75SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.5N 145.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...145NE 90SE 70SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.4N 146.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 65SW 95NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.1N 147.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 149.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 142.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 191432 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST MON SEP 19 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.5 WEST OR ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. JOVA IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 500 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON THURSDAY...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THUS INTERESTS ON AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ATTENTIVE TO THE POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF JOVA. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...15.4 N...142.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 191433 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED OR INTENSITY. THE ACTUAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MUCH MORE RELIABLE RECENT FIXES USING A NOW APPARANT EYE LOCATION. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CPHC...GWC AND SAB CALCULATED A FINAL T OF 5.0...WHICH YIELDS A 90 KT INTENSITY...INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DIVERGENT WITH THIS ISSUANCE. CONU...GUNA AND GUNS CONTINUES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER AND EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT STRAIGHTENING OF THE TRACK FROM THIS GUIDANCE AROUND DAY 2 HAVE KEPT IT IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...ALBEIT A BIT TO THE RIGHT AS A BOW TO THE GFDI. THIS KEEPS JOVA ON A NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST...PASSING SOME 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF HILO ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT TRACK APPEARS TO GIVE SOMEWHAT LESS CREDENCE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY...AND ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES RATHER QUICKLY OFF TO THE WEST. THIS CONTINUATION ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO DAY 5 IS THE ONLY MAJOR VARIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT SLOWER WEAKENING DUE ONLY TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS ANOTHER MINOR CHANGE SINCE THE EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH ALOFT WOULD NOW APPEAR TO HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON JOVA. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.4N 142.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 15.9N 143.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 16.4N 144.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 144.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 145.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 18.4N 146.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 20.1N 147.7W 65 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 21.6N 149.8W 60 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 191439 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 A VERY SMALL EYE CAN BE SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR...RESULTED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA TO THE WEST...CONTINUES TO IMPEDE THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER...DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5...102 KT FROM TAFB AND 5.0...90 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT AT ADVISORY TIME. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER ANY FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT. THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW IMAGES HAVE INDICATED NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WHETHER TO TRACK KENNETH IN A SMALL LOOP OR MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND CLOSE TO CONU. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 13.4N 130.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 130.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 13.6N 131.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 14.3N 132.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W 60 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 191439 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.4N 130.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.6N 131.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.3N 132.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 191446 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 1500Z MON SEP 19 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 116.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 116.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 120.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 191446 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 1500Z MON SEP 19 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......125NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 74.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 75.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 191447 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.0N 79.4W 47 X X X 47 VENICE FL X 11 8 1 20 24.4N 81.9W 5 22 X 1 28 TAMPA FL X 4 9 2 15 24.7N 84.5W X 9 10 2 21 CEDAR KEY FL X X 5 5 10 MUCM 214N 779W 4 X X X 4 ST MARKS FL X X 1 6 7 MUCF 221N 805W 8 5 X X 13 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 8 9 MUSN 216N 826W X 3 2 1 6 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 7 8 MUHA 230N 824W 1 15 1 X 17 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 4 3 8 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X X 7 7 MYSM 241N 745W 74 X X X 74 BURAS LA X X X 9 9 MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 7 7 MYAK 241N 776W 71 X X X 71 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 6 6 MYNN 251N 775W 52 X X X 52 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W 19 5 X X 24 GALVESTON TX X X X 3 3 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3 MARATHON FL 18 14 X 1 33 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL 21 11 X X 32 GULF 29N 85W X X 3 9 12 W PALM BEACH FL 8 15 1 X 24 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 11 12 FT PIERCE FL 1 13 3 X 17 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 12 13 COCOA BEACH FL X 7 5 1 13 GULF 28N 91W X X X 11 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 4 3 8 GULF 28N 93W X X X 7 7 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4 KEY WEST FL 6 22 X X 28 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3 MARCO ISLAND FL 2 23 1 X 26 GULF 25N 96W X X X 2 2 FT MYERS FL 1 18 3 1 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 191450 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED HURRICANE WITH THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AN 1156 UTC SSMI PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSOUS 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE SSMI MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/6 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE TO THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 56.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 56.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.2N 58.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.7N 58.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 27.5N 60.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 59.5W 90 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 191451 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 56.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 50SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 56.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 56.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.7N 58.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 31.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 56.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 191451 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...PHILIPPE PASSING WELL EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... 585 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 56.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 191452 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.2N 57.4W 37 X X X 37 TAPA 171N 618W X 2 1 2 5 20.2N 58.0W 22 2 1 1 26 TKPK 173N 627W X 1 1 1 3 21.7N 58.7W 5 11 3 2 21 TNCM 181N 631W X 1 1 2 4 TFFR 163N 615W X 1 1 1 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 191452 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAHAMAS... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET. AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE. AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 75.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 191506 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND HAS WRAPPED AROUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 3.5 OR 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED OF THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. IMPROVED OUTFLOW FROM THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES MAX TO 60 KT IN 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AS IT ENCOUNTERS WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREE CELSIUS NORTH OF 18N OR 19N. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/8. A MID-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS SHOULD STEER MAX IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIODS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.7N 116.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 118.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 120.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 127.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 191507 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...WHICH MEASURED A 997 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...SO RITA IS DEVELOPING SUBSTANTIAL INNER CORE CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST TIME. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE UNANIMOUSLY T3.5/55 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. RECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE BACK INTO THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS ON BASICALLY THIS CONTINUED HEADING...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS. MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. RECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SIZE OF THE STORM IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED BASED ON THESE DATA...WIND RADII CLIPER GUIDANCE...AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING SYSTEM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA SHOULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE...BEFORE AND AFTER IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND SHOWS RITA REACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.0N 75.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W 90 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W 100 KT $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 191511 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-192100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050919T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC011-192100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-192100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050919T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-192100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050919T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC087-GMZ657-192100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-192100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ** WTUS82 KTBW 191514 *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-192130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1115 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD IN SARASOTA COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 570 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH RITA MOVES AS SHE PASSES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER FEEDER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING MOST FREQUENT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAVE COME DOWN WELL BELOW FLOOD LEVELS THAT OCCURRED BACK IN JUNE AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER RITA MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS RITA MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNLESS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. IN THAT CASE...WE MAY HAVE A WATER LEVEL RISE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS HURRICANE KATRINA PASSED BY TO THE WEST...WITH MAXIMUM READINGS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 5 AND 530 PM TODAY. $$ RJS ** WTCA43 TJSJ 191515 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA ADQUIRIENDO INTENSIDAD EN LAS BAHAMAS... ...NUEVAS ADVERTENCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS PARA PORCIONES DEL SUR DE FLORIDA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...SE EMITIO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA DESDE GOLDEN BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY Y HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE. CONTINUE EN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS EXUMAS Y ANDROS EN LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y PARA EL RESTO DE TODAS LAS BAHAMAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA Y MATANZAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE LA CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS Y CIENFUEGOS. DESDE LAS 11 AM AST...ESTAN EN EFECTO AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA AL SUR HASTA EL NORTE DE GOLDEN BEACH. DESDE LAS 11 AM AST...SE EMITIO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA DESDE EL NORTE DE DEERFIELD BEACH AL NORTE HASTA JUPITER INLET. DESDE LAS 11 AM AST...ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA HASTA EL OESTE DE EAST CAPE SABLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE. DESDE LAS 11 AM AST...ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA AL ORTE DE CHOKOLOSKEE HASTA ENGLEWOOD. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 75.2 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS...315 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU Y COMO A 430 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y RITA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA FUE DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y EL NOROESTE DE CUBA...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...23.0 NORTE...75.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MILLAS POR HORAS. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCTOR BENJAMIN APONTE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS82 KEYW 191523 *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191830- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1125 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...AT NOON...A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE UPPER KEYS LATER TODAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 397 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 994 MB...OR 29.35 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. AT NOON...A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE ISSUED OF ALL OF THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE UPPER KEYS LATER TODAY. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE STORM. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. MARATHON AIRPORT SHOULD REMAIN OPERATIONAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES WILL BE TOPPLED. NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP IMMEDIATELY. THE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER THIS MORNING. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. MOST ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST AS DANGEROUS AS DURING HURRICANE KATRINA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 87 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 84 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 34 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 35 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPN32 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/191530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/191545ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 020 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 130.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 130.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.4N 130.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 13.6N 131.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 13.9N 131.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 14.3N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.9N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 18.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS82 KEYW 191533 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191830- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1135 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST... ...AT NOON...A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE UPPER KEYS LATER TODAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 397 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 994 MB...OR 29.35 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. AT NOON...A MANDATORY EVACUATION WILL BE ISSUED OF ALL OF THE MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE UPPER KEYS LATER TODAY. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE STORM. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES WILL BE TOPPLED. NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP IMMEDIATELY. THE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER THIS MORNING. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. MOST ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST AS DANGEROUS AS DURING HURRICANE KATRINA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 87 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 84 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 34 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 35 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTPH20 RPMM 191200 *** T T T WARNING 02 AT 1200 19 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 201200 ONE FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST AT 211200 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST AT 221200 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE- HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT83 KNHC 191538 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC087-GMZ031-033-657-192100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050919T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC011-192100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-192100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050919T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W GOLDEN-BEACH-FL 25.97N 80.13W $$ FLC099-AMZ650-670-192100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050919T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W JUPITER-INLET-FL 26.95N 80.06W $$ FLC015-021-027-071-GMZ656-676-856-876-192100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1018.050919T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W $$ FLC087-GMZ657-192100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-192100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...TBW... ** WTPH RPLL 191200 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 1200 19 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.4N 126.0E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS MAXI- MUM WINDS 13MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 201200 14.4N 123.1E AT 211200 15.4N 120.2E AT 221200 16.3N 117.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTUS82 KMFL 191559 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-192200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1158 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS RAISED FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION UPDATED COUNTY INFORMATION UPDATED RAINFALL INFORMATION ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. BROWARD COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS. PALM BEACH COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INLAND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY. MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE EAST ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. COLLIER COUNTY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA EFFECTIVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MILES AN HOUR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES NEAR FLORIDA BAY SHOULD ENACT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. DO NOT FOCUS SOLELY ON THE PATH OF THE CENTER BUT RATHER THE CONE OF POTENTIAL ERROR WHEN MAKING PREPAREDNESS DECISIONS. SHOULD RITA MAKE ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH CONDITIONS WOULD BE WORSE THAN DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL ANNOUNCE MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE HOMES TODAY AND AT LEAST A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED AND THESE WILL ALSO BE ANNOUNCED LATER TODAY...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. MIAMI-DADE SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT WILL BE CLOSED ON TUESDAY. EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK MAIN ENTRANCE AND FLAMINGO FACILITY WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. SHARK VALLEY AND THE EVERGLADES CITY FACILITIES WILL CLOSE AT SUNSET. BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSING THIS MORNING INCLUDING ELLIOTT KEY. BROWARD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL HAVE A PRESS CONFERENCE AT NOON TODAY TO RECOMMEND EVACUATION OF ALL MOBILE HOMES. THREE SHELTERS PLUS ADDITIONAL SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL BE OPENED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCATIONS WILL BE ANNOUNCED AT THAT PRESS CONFERENCE. PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES OR FRIENDS. BROWARD SCHOOLS ARE OPEN TODAY BUT WILL BE CLOSED TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND COAST WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY INCLUDING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND COCONUT GROVE...VIRGINIA KEY...KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI BEACH. MANY COASTAL ACCESS ROADS WILL BE COVERED WITH WATER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LYING BUILDINGS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY BE FLOODED AS WELL. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE LIKELY OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BARRIER ISLANDS LIKE ELLIOTT KEY AND OTHER ISLANDS OF BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK CAN EXPECT LARGE AREAS TO BE INUNDATED LATE TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BLOW WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL TIDES ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF LOW TIDE. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE COUNTY...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN LARGE TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES AND SHUTTERS ARE STRONGLY RECOMMENDED IN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS HIGHER THAN 40 MPH RANGES FROM AROUND 80 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...75 PERCENT IN MIAMI...65 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 53 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS HIGHER THAN 58 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...31 PERCENT IN MIAMI...20 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE...AND 11 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH IS AROUND 80 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK... 74 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND AROUND 65 PERCENT IN NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS GREATER THAN 58 MPH IS AROUND 40 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK... 33 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND 25 PERCENT IN NAPLES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE... MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL HINDER DRAINAGE FROM LOCAL CANALS AND COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEM AS HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. RAINFALL IN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTNT82 KNHC 191619 *** TCVAT2 KATRINA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 .HURRICANE KATRINA FLC015-021-027-071-086-087-115-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-656-657- 676-853-856-873-876-262100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC057-081-103-GMZ830-262100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ANCLOTE-KEY-FL 28.18N 82.80W LONGBOAT-KEY-FL 27.39N 82.64W $$ ATTN...WFO...TBW... ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/191535ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/191545ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 031 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 142.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 142.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.9N 143.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.4N 144.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.0N 144.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.5N 145.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.4N 146.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.1N 147.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.6N 149.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS82 KEYW 191659 AAB *** HLSEYW FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191830- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST... ...A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL OF THE UPPER KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY LARGO IS TO COMMENCE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 397 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 994 MB...OR 29.35 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY KEY WEST. A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF THE UPPER KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY LARGO WILL COMMENCE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE GOLDEN PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE STORM. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS WILL BE CLOSING TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. GREYHOUND REPORTS EXCELLENT AVAILABILITY OF SEATS ON SERVICE OUT OF KEY WEST AND THE REMAINING KEYS. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES WILL BE TOPPLED. NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP IMMEDIATELY. THE BRIDGES WILL BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER THIS MORNING. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. MOST ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME JUST AS DANGEROUS AS DURING HURRICANE KATRINA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 87 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 84 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 34 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 35 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ BS ** WTUS82 KTBW 191733 CCA *** HLSTBW FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-192130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1115 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE DE SOTO COUNTY IN TROPICAL STORM WATCH ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD IN SARASOTA COUNTY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...AND LEE COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ENGLEWOOD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 570 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. ...WIND IMPACTS... PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH RITA MOVES AS SHE PASSES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER FEEDER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING MOST FREQUENT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP. ALL RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAVE COME DOWN WELL BELOW FLOOD LEVELS THAT OCCURRED BACK IN JUNE AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... AS RITA MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE GREATLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD POSTPONE TRAVEL UNTIL AFTER RITA MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS RITA MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THEREFORE INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OFFSHORE UNLESS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. IN THAT CASE...WE MAY HAVE A WATER LEVEL RISE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS HURRICANE KATRINA PASSED BY TO THE WEST...WITH MAXIMUM READINGS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES. ...NEXT STATEMENT... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 5 AND 530 PM TODAY. $$ RJS ** WTNT80 EGRR 191746 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 142.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2005 15.2N 142.3W STRONG 00UTC 20.09.2005 16.1N 143.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 16.6N 144.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 16.5N 145.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 16.2N 146.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 15.6N 147.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 15.3N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.3N 148.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.2N 148.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 15.2N 148.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 15.4N 148.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 16.8N 148.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 18.5N 149.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 130.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2005 13.1N 130.6W STRONG 00UTC 20.09.2005 13.0N 130.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 13.6N 131.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 13.9N 133.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.7N 134.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 16.2N 136.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 17.2N 138.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 18.7N 139.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 20.4N 141.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 22.0N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 23.2N 145.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 24.6N 148.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.09.2005 25.2N 151.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM MAX ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 116.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2005 16.2N 116.6W MODERATE 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.2N 117.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 18.5N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 19.7N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 20.4N 121.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 20.3N 122.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 19.7N 122.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 19.3N 123.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 18.1N 124.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.9N 125.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.2N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 15.5N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 15.3N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.5N 100.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2005 10.5N 100.8W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2005 11.0N 102.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 11.3N 103.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 12.4N 104.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 13.2N 106.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 13.8N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 14.2N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 14.2N 109.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 14.1N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 14.5N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 15.2N 108.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 16.0N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 15.3N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 56.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2005 17.2N 56.1W STRONG 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.6N 56.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.7N 56.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 21.6N 57.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 23.7N 58.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 25.9N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 27.8N 60.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 30.2N 61.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 32.8N 61.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 34.6N 61.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 34.7N 58.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 35.3N 53.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2005 36.2N 47.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 74.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2005 22.8N 74.8W MODERATE 00UTC 20.09.2005 22.9N 76.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 23.7N 79.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 24.3N 82.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 24.7N 85.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 25.2N 88.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 25.6N 91.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 26.9N 93.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 28.6N 95.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 31.3N 96.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 34.7N 95.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191746 ** WTIN01 DEMS 191800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 19 09 1730 UTC 19 SEPT 2005 PART I :-MORNINGS CYCLONIC STORM OVER NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA AND ADJOINING SOUTH ORISSA CLOSE TO KALINGAPATNAM LAY 50 KMS WEST OF KALINGPATNAM AT 190900 UTC (.) IT REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AT 191200 UTC NEAR LAT.18.5 DEG.N/LONG 83.5 DEG.E (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.) PART II:- THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SEA LEVEL EXTENDING FROM NORTH MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KARNATAKA COAST PERSISTS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII (N) (.) PART III :-FORECAST ARB-A1 : ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:- SW/W 15/20 KTS BEC NW/W TO THE EAST OF 72 DEG E (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER :- SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 : ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:- SW/W 20/25 KTS (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS.(.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) BOB-A3:BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO LAT 13 DEG N EAST OF 80 DEG E I) WIND:-SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC 20/25 KTS TO THE NORTH OF 05 DEG N (.)WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER :-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT TO MODERATE BEC ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) BOB-A4 : BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT 13 DEG. N. PART I : WEST OF 90 DEG EAST : WIND:-WIND CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS AROUND CENTRED AT 0300 UTC CYCLONIC STORM LAT.18.5 DEG N/ LONG.84.0 DEG E WITHIN RADIUS OF 500 KM (.) WIND IN GUST MAY INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-HIGH(.) PART II : EAST OF 90 DEG E WIND : SW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE NORTH OF 19 DEG N (.) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RAIN (.) STATE OF SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT