** WTCA43 TJSJ 190600 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA MOVIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SUR... ...SE EMITE AVISO DE HURACAN PARA SECTORES DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE EXCLUYENDO A GRAND BAHAMA Y LAS ABACOS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY Y CONTINUANDO HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA Y LAS ABACOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS Y CIENFUEGOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DEL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES HURACANADAS SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 73.7 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS...445 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE NASSAU. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...RITA SE ESTARA MOVIENDO A TRAVES DEL SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RITA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HAST 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS...PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. RITA PODRIA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...CON 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES OY PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES EN A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...23.0 NORTE...73.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 190601 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-190930- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 200 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 520 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE FULLY ACTIVATED TODAY AT 700 AM. A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DIRECTOR REPORTED AIRLINES STILL HAVE SEATS AVAILABLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE BRIDGES MAY BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER TODAY. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM RITA WILL BE AVAILABLE AT 530 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTNT22 KNHC 190829 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0900Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 56.0W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 56.0W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.9N 57.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 58.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 56.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 190829 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...PHILIPPE PASSING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 615 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 56.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 190830 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.9N 57.2W 42 X X X 42 TKPK 173N 627W X 1 1 3 5 19.9N 57.9W 23 2 1 1 27 TNCM 181N 631W X 1 2 3 6 21.0N 58.4W 9 9 3 2 23 TISX 177N 648W X X X 2 2 TFFF 146N 610W X X 1 1 2 TIST 183N 650W X X X 2 2 TDPR 153N 614W X X 1 2 3 ST CROIX VI X X X 2 2 TFFR 163N 615W X 2 1 2 5 ST THOMAS VI X X X 2 2 TAPA 171N 618W X 2 2 3 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 190830 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT. ALTHOUGH RECON REPORTED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AN EYE HAS NOT YET BEEN EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES. CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW OVER MOST SECTORS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEG C...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH 96 HOURS AND A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5. BASED ON EARLIER RECON FIXES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER...350/6. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60-65W WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING REGIME IS CONSISTENT WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE....AND SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.1N 56.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 56.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 57.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 58.4W 85 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 60.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 29.5N 60.0W 90 KT $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 190835 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0900Z MON SEP 19 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.3W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.3W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 123.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 190835 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0405Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICT IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS INCREASING VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FORECAST INTENSITY CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEN...MAX SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24 DEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8. A MID- LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...CAUSING MAX TO TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.3N 116.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 117.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 118.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 123.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 190835 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 190836 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA IS CREATING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENNETH. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED THE EYEWALL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SO HAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS SET AT 110 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY HAVE MEANDERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 13.7N 130.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 190837 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 THE NEW RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN THE SYSTEM AT 07Z FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 999 MB...AND FIRST SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND HAS TAKEN A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAD 44 KT AT THE SURFACE...WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THIS QUADRANT OF 57 KT. THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED...AND I PRESUME THAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE FOUND THERE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE LAST TWO AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION...BUT WITH ALL THE CENTER REFORMATIONS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN A REPRESENTATIVE MOTION. MY BEST JUDGEMENT IS 280/8. RITA HAS ALREADY PASSED THE LONGITUDE OF THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND WILL COME UNDER INCREASING PRESSURE TO HAVE THE TRACK NUDGE TO THE LEFT. FURTHERMORE...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC...THERE SHOULD BE LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE ADJUSTED TO THE CURRENT LOCATION IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A PATH THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF KEY WEST...AND I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS ABRUPTLY WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND ALLOWING RITA TO BEGIN A SHARPER RECURVATURE TRACK. WHILE I HAVE ADJUSTED THE 120-HR POINT ABOUT 120 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I AM STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE 120-HR GUIDANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER RITA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER DEVELOPMENT RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 22.7N 74.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 23.1N 76.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 23.6N 78.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 24.0N 81.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.2N 84.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 92.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 96.0W 95 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 190837 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z MON SEP 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.3W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.3W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 73.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.1N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 25SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.0N 81.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.2N 84.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 88.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 190837 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.6N 78.5W 46 X X X 46 VENICE FL X 5 12 2 19 24.0N 81.2W 3 28 1 X 32 TAMPA FL X 1 10 3 14 24.2N 84.0W X 5 16 2 23 CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 5 8 MUCM 214N 779W 11 1 X 1 13 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5 MUCF 221N 805W 4 13 1 X 18 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 6 7 MUSN 216N 826W X 5 4 2 11 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6 MUHA 230N 824W X 17 4 1 22 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W X X 7 4 11 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4 MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 4 5 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4 MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 BURAS LA X X X 7 7 MYSM 241N 745W 73 X X X 73 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 5 5 MYEG 235N 758W 79 X X 1 80 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4 MYAK 241N 776W 56 X X X 56 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W 44 X X X 44 GALVESTON TX X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W 8 15 X X 23 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 4 4 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3 MARATHON FL 3 30 X X 33 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL 5 26 X X 31 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL 1 21 1 1 24 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 8 10 FT PIERCE FL X 11 5 1 17 GULF 29N 87W X X X 9 9 COCOA BEACH FL X 4 6 2 12 GULF 28N 89W X X X 11 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 4 3 7 GULF 28N 91W X X X 9 9 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 93W X X X 7 7 KEY WEST FL 1 27 2 X 30 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X 21 5 1 27 GULF 27N 96W X X X 4 4 FT MYERS FL X 13 9 1 23 GULF 25N 96W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190838 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE PASANDO AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.0 OESTE O COMO A 385 MILLAS...615 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS CONDICIONES APARENTAN SER FAVORABLES PARA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KILOMETROS FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARAS...29.18 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...17.1 NORTE...56.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT33 KNHC 190845 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA GATHERING STRENGTH IN THE BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 490 MILES... 790 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 190848 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC011-086-AMZ630-651-671-191500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC087-GMZ657-191500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W $$ GMZ031-191500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 FLORIDA-BAY-FL 24.95N 80.90W $$ GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-191500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ** WTCA43 TJSJ 190902 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT LUNES 19 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA ADQUIRIENDO INTENSIDAD EN LAS BAHAMAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE EXCLUYENDO A GRAND BAHAMA Y LAS ABACOS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH HACIA EL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY Y CONTINUANDO HACIA EL OESTE HASTA EL ESTE DE CAPE SABLE. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES Y PARA GRAND BAHAMA Y LAS ABACOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS Y CIENFUEGOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL OESTE DE CAPE SABLE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 74.3 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS...405 KM...AL SURESTE DE NASSAU Y COMO A 490 MILLAS...790 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO JUSTO AL NORTE DEL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y RITA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 998 MB...29.47 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE RITA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES OY PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLE HACIA LA COSTA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...22.7 NORTE...74.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...998 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPA23 PHFO 190903 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 142.4W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 142.4W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 142.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.3N 143.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 85SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 144.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 95SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 145.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.8N 146.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...115NE 80SE 65SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 147.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 20.0N 147.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.3N 149.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 142.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 190906 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.4 WEST OR ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. ON HER CURRENT TRACK HURRICANE JOVA WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME HER TRACK REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN...SO INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE WHEREABOUTS OF HURRICANE JOVA. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...14.9 N...142.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 190907 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST ABOUT THE SAME PACE AS 6 HOURS AGO. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. GWC KEPT THE FINAL T NUMBER AT 5.0 WHILE OTHER AGENCIES HAVE LOWERED IT TO 4.5 FOR CPHC AND SAB AND 4.0 FOR JTWC. AODT FINAL T NUMBER RANGED FROM 4.6 TO 5.0. WILL WATCH FOR MORE SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS BEFORE LOWERING THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST AT 90 KT. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BOTH FOR THIS RUN AND WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...KEEPING JOVA ON A NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE RIGHT IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT IN LIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS OF FIX DATA...BUT CLOSELY PARALLELS PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CLOSELY CLUSTERED CONU...GUNA AND GUNS GUIDANCE...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THESE MODELS. THROUGH 36 HOURS THE TRACK ALSO CLOSELY FOLLOWS JUST TO THE LEFT OF GFDI...BUT THIS MODEL DIVERGEST SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTH AFTER THAT TIME AND BECOMES AN OUTLIER. TRACK WAS KEPT TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LEFTWARD LEANING BAM SHALLOW. AS JOVA MOVES NORTHWARD...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INHIBIT HER ABILITY TO RETAIN STRENGTH...THUS THE WEAKENING TREND. THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM WILL ALSO POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE RAPID WEAKENING...BUT WILL WATCH FOR THE EXACT UNFOLDING OF THIS SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT WITH TIME BEFORE INCORPORATING THIS INTO THE FORECAST. FORECASTER FARRELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 14.9N 142.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.3N 143.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 15.8N 144.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 16.2N 145.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 16.8N 146.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 147.1W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 20.0N 147.9W 60 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 22.3N 149.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTIN01 DEMS 190900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 19 09 0900 UTC 19 SEPT 2005 PART I :-THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING NW BAY MOVED WEST WARDS AND CROSS COASTS NEAR KALINGAPATNAM IN THE MORNING HOURS TODAY THE 19TH SEPT 2005 AND NOW LIES CENTRED AT 190300 UTC LAT.18.5 DEG.N/LONG 84.0 DEG.E CLOSE TO KALINGAPATNAM (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WNW-LY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY (.) PART II:- THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SEA LEVEL FROM GUJRAT COAST NOW RUNS FROM NORTH MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KARNATAKA COAST (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII (N) (.) PART III :-FORECAST ARB-A1 : ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:- SW/W 15/20 KTS BEC NW/W TO THE EAST OF 72 DEG E (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER :- SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 : ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:- SW/W 20/25 KTS (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS.(.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) BOB-A3:BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO LAT 13 DEG N EAST OF 80 DEG E I) WIND:-SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC 20/25 KTS TO THE NORTH OF 05 DEG N (.)WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER :-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT TO MODERATE BEC ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) BOB-A4 : BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT 13 DEG. N. PART I : WEST OF 90 DEG EAST : WIND:-WIND CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS AROUND CENTRED AT 0300 UTC CYCLONIC STORM LAT.18.5 DEG N/ LONG.84.0 DEG E WITHIN RADIUS OF 500 KM (.) WIND IN GUST MAY INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-HIGH(.) PART II : EAST OF 90 DEG E WIND : SW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC SE-LY TO THE NORTH OF 19 DEG N (.) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RAIN (.) STATE OF SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTUS82 KEYW 190909 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-191230- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 510 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AT 600 AM EDT... ...FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED. STORM INFORMATION UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SECTION ADDED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...OR 29.47 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS...NON-RESIDENTS...AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 600 AM EDT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE FULLY ACTIVATED TODAY AT 700 AM. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE DRY TORTUGAS...TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE BRIDGES MAY BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER TODAY. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 79 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 78 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 24 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 26 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTPN34 PHNC 191000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190935ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 116.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 116.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.0N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.0N 118.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.9N 120.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.8N 121.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 21.0N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.0N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) AND HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 190939 CCA *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z MON SEP 19 2005 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 12 FT SEAS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 142.4W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 110SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 140SE 90SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 142.4W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 142.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.3N 143.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 85SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 144.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 95SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 145.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.8N 146.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...115NE 80SE 65SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 147.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 20.0N 147.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.3N 149.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 142.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER FARRELL $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 190600 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0600 19 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200600 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX EAST AT 210600 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO EAST AT 220600 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTUS82 KMFL 190955 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-191500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 555 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS A THREAT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WIND IMPACT UPDATED STORM TIDE UPDATED PREPAREDNESS RECOMMENDATIONS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTH TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTH AND WEST TO CAPE SABLE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND METROPOLITAN BROWARD...ALL OF MIAMI- DADE AND ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MILES AN HOUR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO MIAMI-DADE AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. IT COULD BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD THE FORECAST CHANGE AND A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA AND LISTEN TO ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. DECISIONS ON PREPAREDNESS ACTION FOR RITA WILL BE MADE BY COUNTY OFFICIALS LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WOULD BE 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF BISCAYNE BAY INCLUDING COCONUT GROVE AND POSSIBLY FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGES FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...62 PERCENT IN MIAMI ...52 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 42 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 8 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND 63 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DETAILING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL IN AREAS FROM BROWARD TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KMFL 190959 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-191500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED STORM TIDE HEIGHTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 555 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS A THREAT FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WIND IMPACT UPDATED STORM TIDE UPDATED PREPAREDNESS RECOMMENDATIONS ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTH TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTH AND WEST TO CAPE SABLE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND METROPOLITAN BROWARD...ALL OF MIAMI- DADE AND ALL OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 9 MILES AN HOUR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RITA IS BECOMING STRONGER AND MOVING STEADILY ON A COURSE TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS OF MIAMI-DADE... BROWARD...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 TO 73 MPH...IMMEDIATELY. EVEN IF THE CENTER OF RITA PASSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT METRO MIAMI-DADE AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST ALL DAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH KATRINA IN LATE AUGUST. IN ADDITION...RITA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. IT COULD BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT EMERGENCY HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD THE FORECAST CHANGE AND A HURRICANE WARNING BE ISSUED FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. ALL RESIDENTS OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER ALERT AND KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RITA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOUTH FLORIDIANS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA AND LISTEN TO ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. DECISIONS ON PREPAREDNESS ACTION FOR RITA WILL BE MADE BY COUNTY OFFICIALS LATER TODAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... HIGH TIDES ARE ALREADY ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT ALSO DUE TO SPRING TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON. THE STORM TIDE ASSOCIATED WITH RITA DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM. WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WOULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WOULD BE 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY AND ELLIOTT KEY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF BISCAYNE BAY INCLUDING COCONUT GROVE AND POSSIBLY FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE REST OF COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ON TOP OF THIS STORM TIDE...LARGE WAVES CAUSING EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE WIND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM STORM TIDE WOULD BE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AROUND 2 TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST METRO ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND FREQUENTLY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND MONROE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. PEOPLE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUT UP STORM SHUTTERS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGES FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT IN HOMESTEAD...62 PERCENT IN MIAMI ...52 PERCENT IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND 42 PERCENT IN WEST PALM BEACH. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 8 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 70 PERCENT IN EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK AND 63 PERCENT IN MARCO ISLAND AND NAPLES. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALREADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TODAY...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY FINALLY DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. MARINERS SHOULD SECURE THEIR BOATS TODAY REMEMBERING TO ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED HIGHER TIDES ESPECIALLY IN BISCAYNE BAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH TODAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DETAILING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL IN AREAS FROM BROWARD TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM TODAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ PFOST ** WTUS82 KEYW 191005 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-191230- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 605 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...MANDATORY EVACUATION NOW IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY FOR RESIDENTS... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. WIND IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...OR 29.47 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS...NON-RESIDENTS... AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FOLLOWING HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN AT NOON TODAY FOR RESIDENTS: KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. SUGARLOAF SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 19 GULFSIDE ON SUGARLOAF KEY. STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48.5 GULFSIDE IN MARATHON. CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 89 IN ISLAMORADA. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE FULLY ACTIVATED TODAY AT 700 AM. FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE LOWER KEYS...AND A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE BRIDGES MAY BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER TODAY. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IS 79 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 78 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 24 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 26 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ K. KASPER ** WTPH RPLL 180600 *** T T T WARNING 01 AT 0600 19 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.2N 127.5E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 13MPS NEAR THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200600 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH 124.6E AT 210600 15.4N 122.2E AT 220600 16.9N 119.9E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPN32 PHNC 191000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 019 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 130.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KT POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 130.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.7N 130.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.8N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.0N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.3N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 18.0N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190945ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 030 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 142.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 142.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.3N 143.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.8N 144.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.2N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.8N 146.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.0N 147.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.0N 147.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.3N 149.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT63 KNHC 191123 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS MODIFIED WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINING BAHAMAS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 191155 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA ENTERING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF RITA COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN $$