** WTCA43 TJSJ 190001 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SE TORNA MEJOR ORGANIZADA Y SE FORTALECE MIENTRAS SE ACERCA A LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF AL SUR Y AL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS... INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA PROBABLEMENTE SERA RECLASIFICADA EN AVISO DE HURACAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. PORCIONES DEL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA PROBABLEMENTE SERAN RECLASIFICADAS EN AVISO DE HURACAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA... MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...Y CIENFUEGOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL ESTREMO SURESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH AL SUR A FLORIDA CITY Y CONTINUANDO AL OESTE A EAST CAPE SABLE. EL AREA DE LA VIGILANCIA PROBABLEMENTE SERAN RECLASIFICADAS EN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y POSIBLMENTE VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA SE ESTABA REFORMANDO MAS AL NORTE CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 72.9 OESTE O COMO A 330 MILLAS...530 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE NASSAU EN LAS BAHAMAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL A EL OESTE NOROESTE U OESTE MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O DURANTE EL LUNES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...RITA SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE Y CENTRAL DE LAS BAHAMAS...ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENAO A CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y RITA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO PARA TARDE EN EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HAST 70 MILLAS... 110 KM... PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. RITA DEBERA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...22.7 NORTE...72.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 190029 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-190330- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED. STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY INFORMATION UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 500 MILE EAST SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO AND 575 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE FULLY ACTIVATED ON MONDAY AT 700 AM. A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DIRECTOR REPORTED AIRLINES STILL HAVE SEATS AVAILABLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF TO NEAR 20 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THESE TWO BRIDGES WILL OPEN ON THE HOUR AND HALF-HOUR SUNDAY. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE LOWER KEYS AND 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM ON MONDAY...ON AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM ON MONDAY...230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM APPROACHES THESE ESTIMATES WILL BE ADJUSTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM RITA WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 1130 PM TONIGHT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/AF/SD/AD/MS ** WTPN33 PHNC 182200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182135ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182145ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (LIDIA) WARNING NR 006 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 114.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 114.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.7N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.7N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. 12E IS FORECAST TO MERGE INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF 13E PAST TAU 24. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 182200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182140ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 017 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 129.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 129.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.3N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.7N 131.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.0N 132.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.3N 132.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.0N 134.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 17.0N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.0N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN34 PHNC 182200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182135ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182140ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 114.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 114.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.1N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.1N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.1N 119.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 19.2N 120.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 21.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 24.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.5N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 182200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182135ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182140ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/182145ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A, B AND c ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 028 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 140.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 140.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.5N 142.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.1N 143.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.7N 144.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.1N 145.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 16.9N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.0N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.2N 148.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 190230 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 128.5E TO 14.3N 125.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 190200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200230Z. // WP, 95, 2005091812, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1293E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005091818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1290E, 15, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, WP, 95, 2005091900, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1284E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, ** WTPN21 PGTW 190230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/190221ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 128.5E TO 14.3N 125.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 190200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.1N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGAN- ZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD BUT DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200230Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 190230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/190221ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 128.5E TO 14.3N 125.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 190200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.1N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGAN- ZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD BUT DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200230Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 190230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/190221ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 128.5E TO 14.3N 125.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 190200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13.1N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGAN- ZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD BUT DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200230Z.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 190230 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0300Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 141.5W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 141.5W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 141.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.2N 142.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 144.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.9N 145.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.7N 146.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 147.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.6N 149.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 141.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 190230 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.5 WEST OR ABOUT 965 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...14.6 N...141.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 190231 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME PACE AS 6 HOURS AGO. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CPHC AND GWC ARRIVED AT FINAL T NUMBERS OF 5.0...WHILE JTWC CAME IN AT 4.5. AODTS OF 5.0 WERE DERIVED BY BOTH CPHC AND JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS AT 90 KT. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING JOVA ON A NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE RIGHT IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH THROUGH WEST OF HAWAII. JOVA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CLOSELY CLUSTERED CONU GUNA GUNS AND ENSEMBLES. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS...THE OTHER OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE ALSO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SPREAD OUT THEREAFTER. THE FARTHER NORTH JOVA MOVES...THE COOLER THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL ENCOUNTER. THE FORECAST DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS HAS BEEN DELAYED...AS JOVA WILL BE OVER WARM WATER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE CLOSER JOVA GETS TO THE UPPER TROUGH THE GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR IT WILL SEE. BY 96 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.6N 141.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.2N 142.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 15.8N 143.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.3N 144.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 16.9N 145.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.7N 146.6W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 19.3N 147.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 21.6N 149.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 190234 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LIDIA HAS BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WHAT REMAINS OF LIDIA IS ESSENTIALLY A LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF MAX. THIS REMNANT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED. SINCE LIDIA IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE AS A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.5N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W 20 KT...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 190234 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 0300Z MON SEP 19 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 114.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 114.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 114.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LIDIA. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 190236 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 190237 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 0300Z MON SEP 19 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N 119.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.1N 123.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 190239 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 630 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 55.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 190240 *** TCMAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z MON SEP 19 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 55.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 55.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 56.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 57.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 58.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 58.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 55.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 190240 *** SPFAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.6N 57.5W 37 X 1 X 38 TAPA 171N 618W X 3 3 2 8 19.6N 58.3W 22 3 X 1 26 TKPK 173N 627W X 2 1 4 7 20.8N 58.8W 7 11 2 2 22 TNCM 181N 631W X 2 2 4 8 TFFF 146N 610W X X 1 1 2 TISX 177N 648W X X 1 2 3 TDPR 153N 614W X 1 X 2 3 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 2 3 80400 157N 636W X X X 2 2 ST CROIX VI X X 1 2 3 TFFR 163N 615W X 2 2 2 6 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 190245 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT A 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM... MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 190246 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z MON SEP 19 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 73.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 73.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 72.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 85SE 85SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 73.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 190246 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.1N 77.5W 45 X X X 45 VENICE FL X 1 12 4 17 24.3N 80.1W 5 23 1 X 29 TAMPA FL X X 7 5 12 24.2N 83.0W X 7 12 2 21 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 6 7 MUCM 214N 779W 2 X 1 X 3 ST MARKS FL X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W 1 6 1 1 9 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5 MUSN 216N 826W X 1 3 3 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 MUHA 230N 824W X 7 7 2 16 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MUAN 219N 850W X X 3 6 9 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 4 4 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 BURAS LA X X X 5 5 MYSM 241N 745W 74 X X X 74 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4 MYEG 235N 758W 61 1 X X 62 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W 44 X X X 44 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W 43 1 X X 44 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W 6 20 X X 26 FREEPORT TX X X X 2 2 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 4 4 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X 23 3 X 26 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2 MIAMI FL 1 24 2 X 27 GULF 29N 85W X X X 8 8 W PALM BEACH FL X 18 4 1 23 GULF 29N 87W X X X 7 7 FT PIERCE FL X 8 7 2 17 GULF 28N 89W X X X 10 10 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 7 2 11 GULF 28N 91W X X X 8 8 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 93W X X X 6 6 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4 KEY WEST FL X 17 6 1 24 GULF 27N 96W X X X 3 3 MARCO ISLAND FL X 12 10 1 23 GULF 25N 96W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X 6 12 2 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190253 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN HURACAN PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE SE CONVIERTE EN HURACAN... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.9 OESTE O COMO A 390 MILLAS...630 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORES DE UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE DE TROMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MILIBARAS...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...16.5 NORTE...55.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...987 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 190259 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC011-086-AMZ630-651-671-190900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1018.050919T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1018.050919T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ FLC087-GMZ657-190900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1018.050919T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 CHOKOLOSKEE-FL 25.78N 81.38W EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W $$ FLC086-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-190900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W $$ FLC011-190900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 FLORIDA-CITY-FL 25.45N 80.33W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ GMZ031-190900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050919T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 FLORIDA-BAY-FL 24.95N 80.90W $$ FLC087-GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-190900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1018.050919T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ** WTNT42 KNHC 190259 *** TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE PLANE SUBSEQUENTLY CLIMBED TO 700 MB BECAUSE OF TURBULENCE IN THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 988 MB IN THE EYE BY DROPWINDSONDE. THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS OF 17 KT...SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER. USING THE 80 PER CENT FACTOR TO ESIMATE SURFACE WINDS FROM 850 MB...CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. PHILIPPE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AS PHILIPPE ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF ABOUT 23N. BASED ON THE LATEST RECON FIXES...THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7... ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTHWARD. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD PATH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.5N 55.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 56.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.6N 57.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 58.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.8N 58.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 60.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 29.0N 60.5W 95 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 190307 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THE LAST RECON REPORT AT 17/2324Z INDICATED MAXIMUM RELIABLE 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...OR ROUGHLY 44 KT SURFACE WINDS. THERE WAS ONE FLIGHT-LEVEL REPORT OF 67 KT...BUT THIS OCCURRED DURING CLIMBOUT TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE TO AVOID TURBULENCE...AND IS THEREFORE NOT DEEMED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING OR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY BE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR ACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CAYMAN BRAC AND HAS NOT WEAKENED LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA...SHOULD STEER RITA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO PERHAPS 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND TURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE HEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT... HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36-72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO COCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE RITA WILL BE OVER 30C SSTS AND IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AT LEAST 100 KT...BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 73.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W 75 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W 100 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 190313 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-191000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1115 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORM INFORMATION UPDATED WIND IMPACT UPDATED STORM TIDE/STORM SURGE ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTH AND WEST TO CAPE SABLE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PERSONS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA AND LISTEN TO ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. PERSONS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AGAINST TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PERSONS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLAN SHOULD HURRICANE WARNINGS BE ISSUED. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY. MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF BISCAYNE BAY AND POSSIBLY FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. STORM TIDE HEIGHTS UP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 73 MPH... WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND...PARTICULARLY OVER MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. WINDS OF THIS VELOCITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN TREES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT UTILITY LINES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST RANGES FROM 67 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TO 55 PERCENT IN BROWARD COUNTY TO 45 PERCENT IN PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NEAR 10 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...5 PERCENT IN BROWARD AND 3 PERCENT IN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON MONDAY REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON MONDAY BECOMING VERY ROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES OR REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DETAILING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL IN AREAS FROM BROWARD TO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND ALSO IN COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED EARLY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THESE MIGHT OCCUR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 600 AM MONDAY. FOR A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THIS STATEMENT PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ LUSHINE ** WTPZ41 KNHC 190315 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED 18 NM EYE...WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON A DECLINE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE. ALTHOUGH KENNETH MAY BE WEAKENING...THE TREND SHOULD BE GRADUAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. KENNETH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.1N 130.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 190317 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 AN EARLIER AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT MAX HAD ABSORBED THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF LIDIA...NOW EMBEDDED IN A BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF MAX. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THEN...MAX SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24 DEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/9. A MID- LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WEST...CAUSING MAX TO TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 15.6N 115.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.3N 116.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.4N 119.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 22.1N 123.7W 40 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 131.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 190325 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-190630- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... WATCHES AND WARNINGS UPDATED. STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY INFORMATION UPDATED. MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED. STORM SURGE IMPACTS UPDATED. RAINFALL IMPACTS UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 470 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO AND 550 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE FULLY ACTIVATED ON MONDAY AT 700 AM. A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY...AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DIRECTOR REPORTED AIRLINES STILL HAVE SEATS AVAILABLE. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF TO 15 TO 20 FEET...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE LOWER KEYS AND 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 7 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM ON MONDAY...ON AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM ON MONDAY...230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY BEGINNING MONDAY. AS THE STORM APPROACHES THESE ESTIMATES WILL BE REFINED. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM RITA WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 230 AM TONIGHT...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/AF/SD/JR ** WTCA43 TJSJ 190342 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...RITA SE ACERCA AL SURESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... ...NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS EMITIDOS PARA EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y CUBA... A LAS 11 PM...0300...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HA SIDO RECLASIFICADA EN AVISO DE HURACAN. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN AHORRA EN EFECTO DESDE TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA Y FLORIDA BAY DESDE OCEAN REEF AL SUR Y AL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS. A LAS 11 PM...0300...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA EL ESTREMO SURESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA HA SIDO RECLASIFICADA EN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EERFIELD BEACH AL SUR A FLORIDA CITY Y CONTINUANDO AL OESTE A EAST CAPE SABLE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...Y CIENFUEGOS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ES RECOMENDAD PARA LAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE...INCLUYENDO GRAND BAHAMA Y ABACO ISLAND. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN VIGOR PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. A LAS 11 PM...0300...UNA VIGILANCIA DE DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA EL EXTREMO SUROESTE DE LA PENISULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE AL OESTE DE EAST CAPE SABLE HACUA EL OESTE HASTA CHOKOLOSKEE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA SE ESTABA REFORMANDO MAS AL NORTE CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.9 NORTE... LONGITUD 73.3 OESTE O COMO A 295 MILLAS...480 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE NASSAU EN LAS BAHAMAS. RITA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE U OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...RITA SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PARTE SURESTE Y CENTRAL DE LAS BAHAMAS...ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y RITA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO PARA TARDE EN EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDE HAST 70 MILLAS... 110 KM... PRINCIPALMENTE DEL NORTE A ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. RITA DEBERA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 4 A 6 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL SURESTE Y CENTRO DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS CON ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS SEERAN POSIBLES EN LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...CON DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES RELACIONADAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 6 A 8 PIES POR ENCIMA DE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LAS MAREAS ACOMPANADOS DE GRANDES OLAS ROMPIENTES...SON ANTICIPADAS CERCA Y SOBRE LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS RELACIONADAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SON POSIBLES EN EL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA COSTA DE FLORIDA...Y EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...22.9 NORTE...73.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DE SAN JUAN PR ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190335ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/109340ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190345ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A, B AND c ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 029 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 141.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 141.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.2N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.8N 143.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.3N 144.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 16.9N 145.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.7N 146.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.3N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.6N 149.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190335ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190345ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (LIDIA) WARNING NR 007 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 114.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 114.1W --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190340ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190345ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 018 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 130.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 130.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.1N 131.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.3N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.8N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.3N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.0N 135.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 16.5N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 17.0N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN34 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190335ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/190340ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MAX) WARNING NR 003 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 115.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 115.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.3N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.4N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.4N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.5N 121.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.1N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 24.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 25.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT63 KNHC 190511 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 190537 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 ...RITA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 73.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 190552 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 141.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.4N 141.4W STRONG 12UTC 19.09.2005 15.2N 142.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 15.7N 144.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 16.0N 145.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 15.4N 147.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.7N 147.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 14.3N 147.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 14.4N 147.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 14.6N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 16.2N 145.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 18.2N 145.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 20.5N 146.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 22.7N 148.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 130.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 13.9N 130.4W INTENSE 12UTC 19.09.2005 13.7N 131.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.0N 132.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.5N 134.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 15.2N 135.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 16.2N 137.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 17.7N 138.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 19.5N 140.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 22.1N 141.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 24.0N 143.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 25.5N 145.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 27.7N 147.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 30.0N 149.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM MAX ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 115.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.5N 115.3W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2005 16.1N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.0N 118.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 17.3N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 17.6N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.7N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 17.9N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 17.1N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 16.0N 125.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.2N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.5N 99.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 10.5N 99.8W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2005 10.4N 100.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 10.8N 103.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 11.4N 103.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 12.9N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.1N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 14.8N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 15.2N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.3N 108.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 15.6N 107.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.3N 107.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 17.2N 108.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2005 17.7N 109.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY HURRICANE PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 56.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.2N 56.0W MODERATE 12UTC 19.09.2005 17.3N 56.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.6N 57.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.4N 58.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.5N 58.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 21.6N 59.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 22.9N 60.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.0N 60.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 25.6N 61.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 28.6N 61.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 30.6N 60.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 32.7N 59.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2005 33.2N 57.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM RITA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 73.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 22.3N 73.0W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2005 23.6N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 23.9N 76.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 24.7N 79.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 24.8N 82.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 25.2N 85.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 25.4N 89.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 26.1N 91.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 27.2N 94.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 29.3N 95.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 32.6N 95.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190552