** WTNT33 KNHC 181800 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...21.9 N... 72.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 181803 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1800Z 15.3N 113.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.8N 114.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 116.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 119.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 123.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 181810 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO DIEZ Y OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE ORGANIZA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LAS BAHAMAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF AL SUR Y AL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE LA PARTE SUR DE LA FLORIDA...AL IGUAL QUE EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA...DEBEN SEGUIR DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. VIGILANCIAS ADICIONALES PODRIAN SER EMITIDAS PARA PORCIONES DEL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y PARA CUBA MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y OCHO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.4 OESTE O COMO A 385 MILLAS...625 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE NASSAU EN LAS BAHAMAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE SISTEMA SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE Y CENTRAL DE LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY...ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...21.9 NORTE...72.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE ** WTIN01 DEMS 181800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 18 09 1800 UTC 18 SEPT 2005 PART I :-THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NW BAY MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST WARDS AND FURTHER INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND LIES CENTRED AT 181200 UTC WITHIN HALF A DEG.OF LAT.19.5 DEG.N/LONG 86.5DEG.E ABOUT 80 KMS ESE OF PURI (.)IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A W-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS SOUTH ORISSA COAST BETWEEN GOPALPUR AND PARADIP CLOSE TO PURI BY TONIGHT (.) PART II:- THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SEA LEVEL FROM GUJRAT COAST NOW RUNS FROM NORTH MAHARASHTRA COAST TO KERALA COAST PERSISTS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII (N) (.) PART III :-FORECAST ARB-A1 : ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N. WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:- SW/W 15/20 KTS BEC NW/W TO THE EAST OF 70 DEG E (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER :- ISOLATED/ RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV)STATE OF SEA:-SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.) ARB-A2 : ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT 10 DEG.N. I)WIND:- MAINLY SW-LY 25/30 KTS BEC NW/W TO THE SOUTH OF 15 DEG N AND EAST OF 70 DEG E (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS.(.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) BOB-A3:BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO LAT 10 DEG N EAST OF 80 DEG E I) WIND:-SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC 25/30 KTS TO THE NORTH OF 10 DEG N (.)WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER :-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :-SLIGHT TO MODERATE BEC ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) BOB-A4 : BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT 15 DEG. N. I)WIND:-WIND CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS AROUND LAT. 20 DEG N/LONG 87.5 DEG E (.)WIND IN GUSTS MAY INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY :-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA :- VERY ROUGH TO HIGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTPZ22 KNHC 181818 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 1800Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 114.5W AT 18/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 114.5W AT 18/1800Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 113.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 181818 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 1800Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 114.5W AT 18/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 114.5W AT 18/1800Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 113.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 181822 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REVISE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR LIDIA. NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT HAS FORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA IS A LARGER SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS IT IS AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT OF THE TWO NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONES. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL AND WEAKENING LIDIA IS NO LONGER MOVING WESTWARD AND HAS REVERSED COURSE...NOW BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF LARGER TD 13-E. WHILE THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT LIDIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED BY TD 13-E. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1800Z 13.5N 114.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 113.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 181837 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-182200- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM POSITION INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO...AND 650 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB...OR 29.71 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ENTERED A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED FULLY AT 700 AM MONDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST STARTING AT NOON TODAY. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE KEYS MUST LEAVE TODAY. COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS WILL CLOSE TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MUNICIPAL OFFICES MAY FOLLOW SUIT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 15 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK IN ORDER TO DO SO...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THESE TWO BRIDGES WILL OPEN ON THE HOUR AND HALF-HOUR SUNDAY. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET FROM A CATEGORY 1 STORM. THIS ACCORDS WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE: WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1031 AM AND 1045 PM MONDAY... WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TUESDAY. KEY WEST 1141 AM AND 1134 PM MONDAY... KEY WEST 1230 PM TUESDAY AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE WILL BE GREATEST ON THE SOUTH SHORE. IN GENERAL A SLOWLY MOVING STORM WILL PRODUCE LESS SURGE. A RAPIDLY MOVING STORM WILL PRODUCE GREATER SURGE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... WE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE OUR ESTIMATES. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/JL/MR/MS/2.0 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 181800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 102.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 181800 *** WARNING 181800. WARNING VALID 191800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 998 HPA AT 19.3N 102.4E LAOS MOVING WEST 22 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 23.0N 097.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 181800UTC 19.3N 102.4E POOR MOVE W 22KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 191800UTC 23.0N 097.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTUS82 KEYW 181857 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-182200- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...CORRECTED STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS HEADER... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... STORM POSITION INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. STROM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN QUANTIFIED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO...AND 650 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB...OR 29.71 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ENTERED A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED FULLY AT 700 AM MONDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST STARTING AT NOON TODAY. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE KEYS MUST LEAVE TODAY. COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS WILL CLOSE TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MUNICIPAL OFFICES MAY FOLLOW SUIT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 15 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK IN ORDER TO DO SO...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THESE TWO BRIDGES WILL OPEN ON THE HOUR AND HALF-HOUR SUNDAY. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET FROM A CATEGORY 1 STORM. THIS ACCORDS WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE: WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1031 AM AND 1045 PM MONDAY... WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL 1118 AM AND 1129 PM TUESDAY. KEY WEST 1141 AM AND 1134 PM MONDAY... KEY WEST 1230 PM TUESDAY AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE WILL BE GREATEST ON THE SOUTH SHORE. IN GENERAL A SLOWLY MOVING STORM WILL PRODUCE LESS SURGE. A RAPIDLY MOVING STORM WILL PRODUCE GREATER SURGE. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... WE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE OUR ESTIMATES. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/JL/MR/MS/2.1 ** WTPN33 PHNC 181600 AMD *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181535ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181845ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNING NR 005A AMENDED 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 115.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 115.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.5N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: CHANGED FORECAST TO REFLECT MERGER OF 12E INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF 13E. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPA23 PHFO 182032 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 141.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 141.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 140.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 142.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.1N 143.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 144.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.1N 145.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.9N 147.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 148.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 141.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 182033 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 55.9W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 55.9W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 55.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 56.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.9N 58.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.1N 58.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 55.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 182033 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.8N 57.3W 38 X X X 38 TKPK 173N 627W X 2 2 3 7 18.9N 58.2W 21 3 1 1 26 TNCM 181N 631W X 1 3 3 7 20.1N 58.7W 6 12 2 3 23 TISX 177N 648W X X 1 1 2 TFFF 146N 610W X 1 1 1 3 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 1 2 TDPR 153N 614W X 2 1 1 4 ST CROIX VI X X 1 1 2 TFFR 163N 615W 1 3 1 3 8 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 1 2 TAPA 171N 618W X 4 3 2 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 182034 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.2 WEST OR ABOUT 995 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS... THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...14.1 N...141.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER CRAIG $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 182035 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...PHILIPPE CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES ...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 55.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 182039 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.8W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.8W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 130.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.7N 131.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.0N 132.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.3N 132.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 182042 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE CONTINUA HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.9 OESTE O COMO A 400 MILLAS...645 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...15.9 NORTE...55.9 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 182043 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.1N 119.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 182044 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE JOVA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CPHC AND SAB CAME UP WITH T NUMBERS OF 5.0...AND CPHC GOT AN AODT OF 4.7. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING JOVA ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE TURN TO THE RIGHT IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE NORTH THROUGH WEST OF HAWAII. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH CONU GUNA AND GUNS...WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS...THE OTHER OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN SPREAD OUT THEREAFTER. THE FARTHER NORTH JOVA MOVES...THE COOLER THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL ENCOUNTER. THE GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORECAST INTENSITY AFTER 12 HOURS REFLECTS THIS. ALSO...THE CLOSER IT GETS TO THE UPPER TROUGH THE GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR IT WILL SEE. BY 96 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR JOVA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECASTER CRAIG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.1N 141.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 142.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 15.1N 143.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 15.7N 144.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 16.1N 145.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 16.9N 147.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 18.0N 148.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 148.9W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 182047 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 114.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 115.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 182052 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIDIA IS QUICKLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. THIS ONGOING PROCESS IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS...IF NOT SOONER. LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT WEAKENING LIDIA TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WILL FURTHER DEGRADE LIDIA. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/08. SINCE LIDIA IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX...THE TRACK FORECAST TENDS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX. WITHIN 24 HRS THE IDENTITY OF LIDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY ABSORBED. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 13.8N 114.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 15.7N 114.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 115.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 182054 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MAX. MAX IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ABSORPTION OF LIDIA BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/10. ONCE THE TWO CYCLONES BECOME ONE CIRCULATION...MAX IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.4N 114.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.1N 116.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.1N 119.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 26.5N 127.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 182055 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 72.7W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 72.7W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 72.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.6N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.2N 77.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.5N 79.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 182059 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 182100 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.2N 77.3W 46 X X X 46 KEY WEST FL X 19 11 1 31 23.5N 79.7W 11 22 X X 33 MARCO ISLAND FL X 13 12 1 26 23.5N 82.5W X 11 15 1 27 FT MYERS FL X 7 14 1 22 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 5 6 VENICE FL X 2 14 2 18 MUCM 214N 779W 19 2 1 X 22 TAMPA FL X 1 8 4 13 MUCF 221N 805W 2 17 3 1 23 CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 5 8 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 12 3 17 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4 MUHA 230N 824W X 10 14 1 25 APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 6 7 MUAN 219N 850W X X 6 10 16 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 9 9 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6 MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5 MYSM 241N 745W 46 X X X 46 GULFPORT MS X X X 6 6 MYEG 235N 758W 56 X X X 56 BURAS LA X X X 8 8 MYAK 241N 776W 40 1 X 1 42 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 6 6 MYNN 251N 775W 26 5 X 1 32 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 5 5 MYGF 266N 787W 2 14 2 X 18 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 6 6 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X 25 6 1 32 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 8 10 MIAMI FL 1 22 4 X 27 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 10 11 W PALM BEACH FL X 14 6 X 20 GULF 28N 89W X X X 12 12 FT PIERCE FL X 6 7 X 13 GULF 28N 91W X X X 9 9 COCOA BEACH FL X 2 5 2 9 GULF 28N 93W X X X 5 5 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 2 4 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 182100 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 KENNETH REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BUT MINI CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 6.0 OR 115 KT AND ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS AODT ARE 6.4 RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR KENNETH REMAINS AT 115 KT OR CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5. THE GFDL AND GFS TRACKS STILL INSIST ON MOVING KENNETH NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HRS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE CONTINUES MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCONE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TRACK AS STRONGER RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE IN A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...IT CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING BEYOND 60 HRS BUT THE SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 26 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.3N 129.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.4N 130.6W 110 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 14.7N 131.4W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 15.0N 132.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 15.3N 132.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 16.0N 134.2W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 182100 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE STILL HOLDING AT T3.0/ 45 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UNSEASONABLY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND ON THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE FASTEST AND THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PHILIPPE PRODUCING A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER. IT NOW APPEARS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY WATCHES OR WARNING FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES. FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.9N 55.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 56.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 57.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 58.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.1N 58.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 59.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 60.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 182106 *** TCVAT3 RITA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 .TROPICAL STORM RITA FLC011-086-087-AMZ630-651-671-GMZ031-033-657-190300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1018.050918T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 EAST-CAPE-SABLE-FL 25.12N 81.08W DEERFIELD-BEACH-FL 26.32N 80.07W $$ GMZ032-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-190300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... ** WTNT43 KNHC 182110 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION... BUT DID RECENTLY MEASURE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT... WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY... SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAVE INDICATED WINDS OF 30-35 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE DATA... COMBINED WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE LACK OF WIND NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH... DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. IT HAS A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C... AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SHEAR... IT IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE REMAINING THREE QUADRANTS. SINCE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT FORECAST DEVELOPMENT UNTIL RITA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECAST OF 64 KT BY 48 HOURS SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ANTICIPATING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST MOTION ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO DRAG THE SYSTEM NORTH OF A DUE WEST TRACK...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS TRYING TO FORCE THE SYSTEM DUE WESTWARD. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN TAKING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN SOME CASES SOUTH OF DUE WEST...TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER WILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.2N 72.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 22.6N 74.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 23.2N 77.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 23.5N 79.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 87.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 91.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W 95 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 182113 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-190000- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 515 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM RITA. STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. RAINFALL INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM RITA...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. RITA IS THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED ATLANTIC STORM THIS YEAR. AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO...AND 590 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN KEY WEST. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ENTERED A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED FULLY AT 700 AM MONDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST STARTING AT NOON TODAY. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE KEYS MUST LEAVE TODAY. COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS WILL CLOSE TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MUNICIPAL OFFICES MAY FOLLOW SUIT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 15 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK IN ORDER TO DO SO...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THESE TWO BRIDGES WILL OPEN ON THE HOUR AND HALF-HOUR SUNDAY. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET FROM A CATEGORY 1 STORM. THIS ACCORDS WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM ON MONDAY...ON AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM ON MONDAY...230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM APPROACHES THESE ESTIMATES WILL BE ADJUSTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM RITA WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 830 PM THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/AF/SD/AD/MS ** WTCA43 TJSJ 182117 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DECIMO SEPTIMA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA DEL ATLANTICO SE FORMA... ...NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS EMITIDOS PARA EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y CUBA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL FUE EMITIDO PARA EL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY Y CONTINUANDO AL OESTE A EAST CAPE SABLE. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMTIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA... MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...Y CIENFUEGOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF AL SUR Y AL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS... INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.7 OESTE O COMO A 335 MILLAS...570 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE NASSAU EN LAS BAHAMAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE SISTEMA SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE Y CENTRAL DE LAS BAHAMAS...ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...22.2 NORTE...72.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 182126 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...CORRECTED TO ADD RAINFALL STATEMENT... ...17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS... ...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND FOR CUBA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. AT 5 PM EDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 182129 CCA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...CORECCION PARA ANADIR DATOS DE PRECIPITACION... ...LA DECIMO SEPTIMA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA DEL ATLANTICO SE FORMA... ...NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS EMITIDOS PARA EL SUR DE LA FLORIDA Y CUBA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL FUE EMITIDO PARA EL EXTREMO SURESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA DESDE DEERFIELD BEACH AL SUR HASTA FLORIDA CITY Y CONTINUANDO AL OESTE A EAST CAPE SABLE. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMTIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE VILLA CLARA... MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...Y PINAR DEL RIO...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...Y CIENFUEGOS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF AL SUR Y AL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS... INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL RITA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.7 OESTE O COMO A 335 MILLAS...570 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE NASSAU EN LAS BAHAMAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE SISTEMA SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE LA PARTE ESTE Y CENTRAL DE LAS BAHAMAS...ESTA NOCHE Y EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...55 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL RECIENTEMENTE MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. RITA DEBERA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS Y EL SUR Y CENTRO DE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...22.2 NORTE...72.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KMFL 182130 *** HLSMFL AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-190330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORMS... ...WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH IN BROWARD COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA CITY IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THEN WEST THROUGH EAST CAPE SABLE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND SECTIONS MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY ON MONDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PERSONS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA AND LISTEN TO ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. BOAT OWNERS IN THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS TO SECURE THEIR CRAFT OR MOVE IT TO A SAFE HARBOR. OTHER PERSONS IN METROPOLITAN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY SHOULD BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK A MAXIMUM STORM TIDE...WHICH INCLUDES THE STORM SURGE AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY BUT COULD EXTEND NORTH THROUGHOUT BISCAYNE BAY...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN MIAMI...AND ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO MIAMI BEACH. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS GUSTING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE...39 TO 50 MPH...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MAINLAND MAINLY...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 50 TO 73 MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RANGE FROM 44 PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TO ABOUT 35 PERCENT IN BROWARD COUNTY AND 28 PERCENT IN PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NEAR THREE PERCENT IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BUT LESS THAN 2 PERCENT IN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON MONDAY REACHING MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 39 TO 50 MPH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO SPEEDS OF 50 TO 73 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OCEAN BEACHES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON MONDAY AND BECOME VERY ROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERSONS ARE URGED TO SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... A FLOOD OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. RAINFALL FARTHER NORTH FROM BROWARD TO COLLIER COUNTY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN PALM BEACH...HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED EARLY MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF RITA. THESE MIGHT OCCUR BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 PM TONIGHT. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT THE MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO OR EN ESPANOL AT WWW.ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 182100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 182100UTC 20N 101E MOVE W 25KT PRES 1000HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 182100 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TD 0516 VICENTE ANALYSIS POSITION 182100UTC 20.0N 101.0E MOVEMENT W 25KT PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS82 KEYW 182232 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-190000- TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 515 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM RITA. STORM POSITION AND INTENSITY INFORMATION HAS BEEN UPDATED. RAINFALL INFORMATION UPDATED. STORM SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... THE TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM RITA...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. RITA IS THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED ATLANTIC STORM THIS YEAR. AT 500 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO...AND 590 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IN KEY WEST. THE TROPICAL STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB...OR 29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ENTERED A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED FULLY AT 700 AM MONDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST STARTING AT NOON TODAY. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE KEYS MUST LEAVE TODAY. COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS WILL CLOSE TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MUNICIPAL OFFICES MAY FOLLOW SUIT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 15 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK IN ORDER TO DO SO...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THESE TWO BRIDGES WILL OPEN ON THE HOUR AND HALF-HOUR SUNDAY. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... OUR STORM SURGE MODEL ESTIMATES A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET FROM A CATEGORY 1 STORM. THIS ACCORDS WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK. OUR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE A TOTAL OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM ON MONDAY...ON AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM ON MONDAY...230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM APPROACHES THESE ESTIMATES WILL BE ADJUSTED. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM RITA WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 830 PM THIS EVENING...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ CB/AF/SD/AD/MS ** WTNT33 KNHC 182343 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...RITA GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND POSSIBLY A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES ...530 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$