** WTJP21 RJTD 181200 *** WARNING 181200. WARNING VALID 191200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 994 HPA AT 18.8N 104.7E LAOS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 22 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 20.8N 099.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 18.8N 104.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 22KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 20.8N 099.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL ON TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC 00HR 18.5N 104.9E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 181500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 011 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 105.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 105.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.2N 101.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 104.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 181345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 181200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 181345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 181200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPA23 PHFO 181432 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 140.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 140.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 140.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.6N 141.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.2N 143.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.7N 144.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.2N 145.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 147.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 148.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 149.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 140.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER KODAMA $$ ** WTPA33 PHFO 181433 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS... THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...14.1 N...140.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER KODAMA $$ ** WTPA43 PHFO 181434 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE JOVA MADE A BIT OF A RIGHT TURN AND INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION TOWARD 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. DVORAK NUMBERS FROM CPHC AND AFWA CAME IN AT 90 KNOTS WHILE JTWC REMAINED AT 65 KNOTS. THUS...HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS. FROM A LARGER PERSPECTIVE...THE EXPECTED OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHICH SHOULD PULL JOVA TOWARD COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BY DAY 5. JOVA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 90 KNOTS THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY DAY 4. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE THOUGH HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFDL THUS KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. SHIPS DROPS JOVA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAY 5 BUT FEEL THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO DRASTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE RATHER TIGHTLY GROUPED ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS. GFDL PROJECTS A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND IS THE NORTHEASTERN OUTLIER WHILE UKMET IS THE SOUTHWESTERN OUTLIER. GUNS...GUNA...CONU AND NOGAPS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL THOUGH THE NOGAPS IS A BIT FASTER. FORECASTER KODAMA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 14.1N 140.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.6N 141.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 15.2N 143.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 15.7N 144.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.2N 145.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 17.3N 147.1W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 18.6N 148.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 21.7N 149.9W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 181440 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING AS IT NEARS THE BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 625 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 181441 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 72.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 181441 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.2N 76.2W 43 X X X 43 COCOA BEACH FL X X 8 4 12 23.7N 78.3W 14 16 1 X 31 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 3 5 8 23.8N 80.8W X 14 11 1 26 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 4 5 KEY WEST FL X 5 18 2 25 MUCM 214N 779W 8 6 1 X 15 MARCO ISLAND FL X 3 17 3 23 MUCF 221N 805W X 8 8 2 18 FT MYERS FL X 1 16 4 21 MUSN 216N 826W X X 7 7 14 VENICE FL X X 12 7 19 MUHA 230N 824W X 2 13 5 20 TAMPA FL X X 7 8 15 MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 12 13 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 8 10 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 6 6 ST MARKS FL X X X 7 7 MBJT 215N 712W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 9 9 MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 8 8 MYSM 241N 745W 45 X X X 45 PENSACOLA FL X X X 6 6 MYEG 235N 758W 47 X X X 47 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5 MYAK 241N 776W 23 11 X X 34 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5 MYNN 251N 775W 10 18 1 X 29 BURAS LA X X X 6 6 MYGF 266N 787W X 13 7 X 20 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 MARATHON FL X 11 14 1 26 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 10 11 MIAMI FL X 12 12 1 25 GULF 29N 87W X X X 10 10 W PALM BEACH FL X 7 12 2 21 GULF 28N 89W X X X 9 9 FT PIERCE FL X 2 12 2 16 GULF 28N 91W X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 181446 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 55.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 55.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N 56.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.1N 57.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 55.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 181446 *** TCVAT3 EIGHTEEN WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN GMZ031-182100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1018.050918T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 FLORIDA-BAY-FL 24.95N 80.90W $$ FLC087-GMZ032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-182100- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1018.050918T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTNT32 KNHC 181448 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...PHILIPPE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES... 685 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...15.2 N... 55.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 181448 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.1N 57.0W 38 X 1 X 39 TKPK 173N 627W X 3 4 3 10 18.2N 58.0W 19 4 1 1 25 TNCM 181N 631W X 2 5 4 11 19.4N 58.8W 4 12 3 2 21 TISX 177N 648W X X 2 3 5 TBPB 131N 595W X 1 X 1 2 TIST 183N 650W X X 2 4 6 TLPL 138N 610W X 1 1 1 3 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 2 2 TFFF 146N 610W X 2 2 2 6 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 1 2 3 TDPR 153N 614W X 3 2 3 8 ST CROIX VI X X 2 3 5 80400 157N 636W X X 2 2 4 ST THOMAS VI X X 2 4 6 TFFR 163N 615W X 6 2 3 11 SAN JUAN PR X X 1 2 3 TAPA 171N 618W X 6 4 3 13 PONCE PR X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181535ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181540ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 027 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 140.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 140.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.6N 141.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.2N 143.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.7N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.2N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.3N 147.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.6N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.7N 149.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 181455 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THIS YIELDS T NUMBERS OF 6.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 5.5 FROM TAFB. THE LATEST CIMSS AODT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AROUND T 6.2. THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 115 KT...WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/6. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD IN 36-48 HOURS...DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH A DIGGING DEEP-LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF AND UKMET MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH MOVES KENNETH ON A MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEANS TOWARDS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOWER WEAKER DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. IF KENNETH TRACKS MORE WESTWARD IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS WHICH COULD DELAY THE WEAKENING PROCESS. FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 14.3N 129.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.4N 130.3W 110 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 14.6N 131.2W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 14.9N 132.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 181455 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 181456 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.4W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.4N 130.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 65SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.6N 131.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 85NE 70SE 70SW 85NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 129.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 181459 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO DIEZ Y OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE ORGANIZA A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA A LAS BAHAMAS... ...SE EMITE VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...SE EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA TODOS LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA DESDE OCEAN REEF AL SUR Y AL OESTE HASTA DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUYENDO FLORIDA BAY. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PARTE NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. CONTINUA ENEFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA EL SURESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DE LA PARTE SUR DE LA FLORIDA...AL IGUAL QUE EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA...DEBEN SEGUIR DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y OCHO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.2 OESTE O COMO A 390 MILLAS...625 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE NASSAU. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UNA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE A OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...ESTE SISTEMA SE ESTARA MOVIENDO SOBRE EL ESTE Y EL CENTRO DE LAS BAHAMAS MAS TARDE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO Y SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE TORNE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11AM EDT...22.0 NORTE...72.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCTOR APONTE ** WTPZ42 KNHC 181502 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA HAS REDEVELOPED. DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO REMAIN ORGANIZED. A HELPFUL 0933Z AMSR-E PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STILL THIS POSITION MAY NEED TO BE READJUSTED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. LIDIA IS CURRENTLY BEING INFLUENCED BY A DISTURBANCE 250 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INFLUENCE BOTH THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...280/2. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY BETWEEN LIDIA AND THE DISTURBANCE. THERFORE...THE LARGE SCALE STEERING MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ARRIVED AND IT APPEARS THAT LIDIA AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE POSSIBLY TRYING TO MERGE. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER LIDIA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION OR BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF THIS SCENARIO...THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW. FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 12.5N 115.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 181502 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE UNANIMOUSLY 30 KT... AND THIS IS THE NEW ADVISORY INTENSITY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD...CONTINUES TO IMPOSE THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE DEPRESSION THAT IS CAUSING THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH FEATURE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS PATTERN CHANGE...ALONG WITH PLENTY WARM OCEAN WATERS...SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE GFS-BASED SHIPS DIAGNOSES MUCH LESS SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEMS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFDL REMAINS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...NOT FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECASTS A 64 KT HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME DOWNSHEAR REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...EXCEPT FOR INTRODUCING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODELS EXPECTED SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE CURRENT SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND ON WIND RADII CLIPER GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST... HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 22.0N 72.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 22.6N 73.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 23.2N 76.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 23.7N 78.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 23.8N 80.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 24.0N 85.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 90.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 94.0W 90 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 181509 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE FORTALECIENDOSE AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES PERO SE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE PHILIPPE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.7 OESTE O COMO A 425 MILLAS...585 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y PHILIPPE PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS ...75 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...15.2 NORTE...55.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 181510 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE FORTALECIENDOSE AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES PERO SE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE PHILIPPE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.7 OESTE O COMO A 425 MILLAS...585 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y PHILIPPE PODRIA TORNARSE EN HURACAN DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS ...75 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MILIBARAS...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...15.2 NORTE...55.7 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1000 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 181510 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOME MORE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT... DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0...SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SINCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG ABOUT 25N IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND PROVIDE A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING PHILIPPE TO 85 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL IN FORECASTING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/6 IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...PERHAPS DUE TO THE CENTER BEING DRAWN IN THAT DIRECTION BY THE LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH TAKES THE DEVELOPING STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 55.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 56.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 57.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 58.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.4N 58.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 60.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 27.0N 62.0W 100 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 181536 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-181900- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO...AND 630 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB...OR 29.77 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BEGIN ISSUING BULLETINS AND INSTRUCTIONS TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 15 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK IN ORDER TO DO SO...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE AS THESE BRIDGES MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WE WILL RUN OUR SURGE MODEL SHORTLY. STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK HAVE PRODUCED 4 TO 6 FEET OF SURGE IN THE PAST. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... WE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE OUR ESTIMATES. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 230 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/JL/MR/MS/1 ** WTPN32 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181540ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 016 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 129.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 129.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.4N 130.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.6N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.9N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.2N 132.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.9N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 16.7N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.5N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN33 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/181535ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 115.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 115.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 12.6N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.8N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 13.2N 116.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 13.6N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 14.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 16.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 19.0N 103.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 22KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 22.0N 098.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTUS82 KEYW 181639 AAA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-181900- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OCEAN REEF ON KEY LARGO...AND 630 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB...OR 29.77 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY HAS ENTERED A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED FULLY AT 700 AM MONDAY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST STARTING AT NOON TODAY. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE KEYS MUST LEAVE TODAY. COUNTY PARKS AND STATE PARKS WILL CLOSE TODAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. RESIDENTS IN MOBILE HOMES AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS IMMEDIATELY. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BE BLOWN ABOUT. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COUNTY OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON MONDAY. MUNICIPAL OFFICES MAY FOLLOW SUIT. ...WIND IMPACTS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SLOWLY ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO STAY IN PORT BEGINNING TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND IN FLORIDA BAY AND GULF WATERS MONDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY BUILD IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEYOND THE REEF UP TO 15 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE CREEK IN ORDER TO DO SO...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS PRACTICABLE. THESE TWO BRIDGES WILL OPEN ON THE HOUR AND HALF-HOUR SUNDAY. THEY MAY CLOSE ON MONDAY TO BOATS TRAVELING ON THE WATER. IF YOU PLAN FOR YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WE WILL RUN OUR SURGE MODEL SHORTLY. STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR TRACK HAVE PRODUCED 4 TO 6 FEET OF SURGE IN THE PAST. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... WE EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE OUR ESTIMATES. ...NEXT UPDATE... OUR NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WILL BE AVAILABLE AROUND 230 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. REMEMBER TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST. $$ DFM/JL/MR/MS/1.1 ** WTNT80 EGRR 181721 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 140.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.7N 140.5W STRONG 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.7N 141.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 15.5N 143.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 15.5N 145.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 15.5N 146.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 14.6N 147.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.7N 147.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 13.7N 147.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 13.7N 148.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 14.0N 148.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 13.9N 147.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 14.3N 147.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 15.6N 148.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 129.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.0N 129.3W STRONG 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.1N 130.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.1N 131.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.4N 132.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.6N 133.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 14.8N 134.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 15.5N 136.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 16.2N 137.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 17.2N 139.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 18.1N 140.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 18.0N 143.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 14.3N 147.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2005 15.6N 148.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM LIDIA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 116.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2005 11.9N 116.0W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2005 12.9N 115.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 13.7N 116.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.7N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 15.4N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 16.3N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.2N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 18.0N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 17.9N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 17.4N 124.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 17.4N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.4N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 16.3N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 71.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2005 21.4N 71.9W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2005 21.6N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 22.3N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 22.7N 79.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 23.0N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 23.1N 85.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 23.1N 88.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 23.7N 91.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 23.9N 94.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 25.1N 96.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 26.2N 97.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 27.7N 99.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 29.8N 100.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 55.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.7N 55.4W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.6N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 17.3N 57.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.5N 58.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.3N 59.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.3N 60.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 21.4N 60.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 22.5N 60.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.8N 61.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 27.3N 61.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 29.0N 62.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 31.6N 61.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2005 34.7N 60.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181721 ** WTPZ23 KNHC 181745 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005 1800Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 113.6W AT 18/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 113.6W AT 18/1800Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 116.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$