** WTCA43 TJSJ 180635 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO DIEZ Y OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION CONTINUA OESTE NOROESTE...PRIMER AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTARA LLEGANDO AL SISTEMA PRONTO... AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMEMTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL CENTRO Y OCCIDENTE DE LA ISLA DE CUBA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGESO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y OCHO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.2 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL NORESTE DE LA ISLA DE GRAND TURK. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION SE PODRIA CONVERTIR EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. LA DEPRESION PODRIA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y SOBRE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EDT...22.1 NORTE...70.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 17.4N 107.1E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 100.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 992 HPA AT 17.5N 107.2E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 19.3N 101.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 17.5N 107.2E FAIR MOVE W 16KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 19.3N 101.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS. 5.REMARKS THIS IS FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON TS 0516 VICENTE (0516).= ** WTKO20 RKSL 180600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0516 VICENTE ANALYSIS POSITION 180600UTC 17.5N 107.2E MOVEMENT W 16KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190600UTC 19.9N 101.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 106.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 106.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.7N 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.9N 101.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 106.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTHWEST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 180732 *** SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC (.) YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTH-WEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION. IT LIES CENTRE AT 0300 UTC NEAR LAT. 20.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 87.5 DEG E ABOUT 100 KM EAST-OF PARADIP (42976) IN ORISSA. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND LIKELY TO CROSS ORISSA COAST BETWEEN CHANDBALI (42973) AND PURI (43053) BY TONIGHT UNDER ITS INFLUENCE SQUALLY WIND SPEED REACHING 55-60 KMPH LIKELY ALONG AND OFF COASTAL AREAS OF ORISSA. GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AND NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH. SEA CONDITIONS ALONG AND OFF THESE COASTS WILL BE ROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS AT A FEW PLACES LIKELY OVER ORISSA AND CHHATISGARH DURING NEXT 2 DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO EXTEND IN TO CENTRAL INDIA SUBSEQUENTLY. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA (.) ** WTSS20 VHHH 180745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (100.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 180745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (100.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180700 UTC 00HR 18.0N 106.9E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTNT22 KNHC 180834 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 55.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 55.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 56.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 57.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 58.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 180835 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.4N 56.9W 45 X X X 45 TKPK 173N 627W X 1 5 5 11 17.5N 57.8W 23 4 1 X 28 TNCM 181N 631W X 1 4 7 12 18.7N 58.7W 3 15 2 2 22 TISX 177N 648W X X 1 5 6 TBPB 131N 595W X 2 1 1 4 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 6 7 TVSV 131N 612W X X 1 1 2 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 3 3 TLPL 138N 610W X 1 2 1 4 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 4 4 TFFF 146N 610W X 3 2 3 8 ST CROIX VI X X 1 5 6 TDPR 153N 614W X 3 3 3 9 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 6 7 80400 157N 636W X X 2 3 5 SAN JUAN PR X X X 4 4 TFFR 163N 615W X 4 5 3 12 PONCE PR X X X 3 3 TAPA 171N 618W X 3 6 4 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 180835 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...PHILIPPE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES... 730 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180800 UTC 00HR 18.2N 106.3E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 180836 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.9W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.9W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.7N 116.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.9N 116.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.1N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 180837 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LIDIA IS NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. IN FACT...IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE BROADER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. AS NOTED EARLIER...DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED N MI TO THE NORTHEAST. ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT... AND UNLESS LIDIA STARTS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED SOON...SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD. IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER...BUT BASED ON AN EARLIER...0419Z...SSM/I OVERPASS...IT HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. ANOTHER RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED USING VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...MY CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS NOT FAR FROM WHERE SOME SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...270/2. TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH STEERING EFFECT WILL BE INDUCED AS A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED. IT MUST BE ADMITTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 12.5N 115.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 12.7N 116.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 12.9N 116.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 13.1N 117.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 13.4N 117.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 121.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTPA23 PHFO 180837 *** TCMCP3 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102005 0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 140.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 140.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 140.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.7N 141.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.3N 142.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.8N 143.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.3N 144.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 146.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 18.3N 147.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.2N 149.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 140.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA33 PHFO 180838 *** TCPCP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST SAT SEP 17 2005 ...HURRICANE JOVA CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC... AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1070 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. JOVA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS... THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...13.3 N...140.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER KODAMA ** WTPA43 PHFO 180838 *** TCDCP3 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE JOVA HAS MOVED ACROSS 140 WEST LONGITUDE INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. THUS...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAS ASSUMED FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATED GOOD SYMMETRY IN THE OUTFLOW OF JOVA AND A RECENT BURST OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATION NUMBERS ARE 90 KT FROM CPHC...SAB...TAFB AND AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THESE VALUES...HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 90 KT. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN BETWEEN 12 AND 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECASTS MAINTAINS CONTINUITY OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE KEEPING JOVA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE INTENSE GFDL AND THE WEAKER SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS MAINLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY THE DAY 5 POSITION SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO PUT JOVA ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS SHOULD PUT JOVA INTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE RESULTANT WEAKENING REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER KODAMA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 13.3N 140.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 13.7N 141.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 14.3N 142.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 14.8N 143.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 15.3N 144.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 16.4N 146.1W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 18.3N 147.6W 60 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 21.2N 149.4W 60 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 181000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180935ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180940ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 026 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 140.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 140.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 13.7N 141.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.3N 142.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.8N 143.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.3N 144.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.4N 146.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.3N 147.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.2N 149.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ** WTNT33 KNHC 180842 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...DEPRESSION ORGANIZING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 455 MILES... 730 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 71.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 180842 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 THE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS EN ROUTE TO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS DIVERTED TO THE DEPRESSION...AND WE VERY MUCH APPRECIATE THE LAST MINUTE FLEXIBILITY OF THE AIRCREW. WHEN THEY FIRST GOT TO THE DEPRESSION...THEY DIDN'T FIND MUCH...INCLUDING ONLY 5 KT OF WEST WIND AND A CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTER HAD MIGRATED OR REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION... WHICH IS NOW TAKING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON THE FIRST FEW IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 36 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRE A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BASIC TRACK REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE UKMET IS FARTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS ALSO SOUTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...TAKING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST. UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA...AND THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS UPPER PATTERN...COUPLED WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD FAVOR MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE AVOIDS THE LAND MASS OF CUBA. THE GFDL IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...NOT MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 21.7N 71.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 22.2N 73.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.8N 75.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.4N 77.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 23.8N 80.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 89.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 24.0N 93.5W 80 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 180843 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 71.2W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 71.2W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 73.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N 75.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.4N 77.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.8N 80.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 89.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 71.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 180843 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.8N 75.3W 44 X X X 44 COCOA BEACH FL X X 7 6 13 23.4N 77.5W 12 19 X 1 32 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 7 9 23.8N 80.0W X 14 11 1 26 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 5 5 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 4 5 KEY WEST FL X 1 17 5 23 MUGM 200N 751W 3 1 X X 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 16 5 21 MUCM 214N 779W 5 11 1 1 18 FT MYERS FL X X 13 7 20 MUCF 221N 805W X 6 10 2 18 VENICE FL X X 8 10 18 MUSN 216N 826W X X 5 9 14 TAMPA FL X X 4 11 15 MUHA 230N 824W X X 12 7 19 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 10 11 MUAN 219N 850W X X 1 10 11 ST MARKS FL X X X 7 7 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 4 4 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 9 9 MBJT 215N 712W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 8 8 MYMM 224N 730W 70 X X X 70 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5 MYSM 241N 745W 37 1 X X 38 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4 MYEG 235N 758W 38 1 X X 39 GULFPORT MS X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W 7 24 X X 31 BURAS LA X X X 4 4 MYNN 251N 775W 2 24 2 X 28 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W X 8 11 1 20 GULF 29N 85W X X X 11 11 MARATHON FL X 3 19 2 24 GULF 29N 87W X X X 9 9 MIAMI FL X 4 18 2 24 GULF 28N 89W X X X 7 7 W PALM BEACH FL X 2 15 3 20 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3 FT PIERCE FL X 1 11 4 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 180845 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...PHILIPPE FORTALECIENDOSE LENTAMENTE... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE PHILIPPE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.5 OESTE O COMO A 455 MILLAS...730 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 35 MILLAS ...55 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARAS...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...14.6 NORTE...55.5 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 180846 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 65SE 80SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.8W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.4N 129.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.7N 130.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.4N 132.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 128.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT83 KNHC 180847 *** TCVAT3 EIGHTEEN WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 .TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ATTN...WFO... ... ** WTPZ41 KNHC 180850 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE TOPS OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE INNER CORE HAVE COOLED. A WHITE BAND PRACTICALLY SURROUNDED THE EYE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AGAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/6. THE NARROW MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE LOW... TURNING KENNETH SHARPLY TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS. ALL OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE AND LESS AGGRESSIVE TURN INTO THE BREAK...WHICH IS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TRACK. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED BASED ON THE 0300Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.3N 128.8W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 14.4N 129.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 14.7N 130.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 15.4N 132.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 180856 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO DIEZ Y OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT DOMINGO 18 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION ORGANIZANDOSE AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMEMTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL CENTRO Y OCCIDENTE DE LA ISLA DE CUBA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGESO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y OCHO FUE RE-LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.2 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS...25 KM...AL NORTE NORESTE DE LA ISLA DE GRAND TURK Y COMO A 455 MILLAS...730 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE NASSAU. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION SE PODRIA CONVERTIR EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. LA DEPRESION PODRIA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y SOBRE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...21.7 NORTE...71.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO ** WTPN33 PHNC 181000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180935ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 12.5N 115.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 115.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.7N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.9N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.1N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.4N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 18.5N 106.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 19.9N 100.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 181000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180930ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180940ZSEP2005// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 015 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 128.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 128.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.4N 129.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.7N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.4N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.0N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.0N 136.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNING (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180900 UTC 00HR 18.2N 106.0E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTPN22 PGTW 181100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 181051Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171121Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 171130)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 171130). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.1W, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZA- NILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING PULLED INTO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12E AS IT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI- MATED TO BE 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND THE PROXIMITY OF TS 12E, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTPN22 PGTW 181100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 181051Z SEP 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171121Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 171130)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 171130). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.1W, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZA- NILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING PULLED INTO TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12E AS IT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI- MATED TO BE 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND THE PROXIMITY OF TS 12E, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 181045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 181045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT33 KNHC 181159 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...DEPRESSION CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR OVER THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND ABOUT 430 MILES... 695 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB... 29.77 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 71.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$