** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 17.3N 109.1E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 20.0N 102.3E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 985 HPA AT 16.8N 108.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 19.3N 100.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 16.8N 108.4E FAIR MOVE W 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 19.3N 100.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 17.3N 109.1E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 20.0N 102.3E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180100 UTC 00HR 17.3N 108.9E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 108.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 108.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.7N 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.1N 102.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 107.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 180145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (101.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 180145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (101.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT21 KNHC 180227 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 180228 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.1N 73.6W 44 X X X 44 FT PIERCE FL X X 8 10 18 23.6N 75.5W 19 12 X X 31 COCOA BEACH FL X X 4 12 16 24.0N 77.7W X 17 7 2 26 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 11 12 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 8 8 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 MUGM 200N 751W 1 X 1 2 4 KEY WEST FL X X 5 13 18 MUCM 214N 779W X 4 5 4 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 6 13 19 MUCF 221N 805W X X 5 9 14 FT MYERS FL X X 4 14 18 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 9 9 VENICE FL X X 2 15 17 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 12 13 TAMPA FL X X 1 14 15 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 5 5 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 12 12 MBJT 215N 712W 43 X X X 43 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8 MYMM 224N 730W 45 X X X 45 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 8 8 MYSM 241N 745W 30 5 X X 35 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7 MYEG 235N 758W 14 14 1 X 29 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 MYAK 241N 776W X 18 7 1 26 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X 17 9 1 27 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X 2 16 4 22 GULF 29N 85W X X X 10 10 MARATHON FL X X 9 10 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 MIAMI FL X X 14 7 21 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL X X 12 8 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 180230 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICT A CLEAR 25 NM EYE...AND AN EXPANSION OF THE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE SIZE EXPANSION OVER THE TWO QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS...AS THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS AN EARLIER...ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.2N 128.2W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W 100 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 180231 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 110SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 110SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 128.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 180231 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.4W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.4W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.7N 117.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.2N 118.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 14.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 14.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 180233 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT. DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE SOME 300 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SYSTEM MAY BE DISRUPTING SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO LIDIA. ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BECAUSE THE NEIGHBORING DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE STORM. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/4. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA IS PROBABLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT INITIALIZE LIDIA PROPERLY...AND SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS RUN...WHICH...BECAUSE OF ITS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE... AT LEAST STARTS THE STORM IN ABOUT THE CORRECT LOCATION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 12.4N 116.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 12.7N 117.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 13.2N 118.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 13.5N 119.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 14.0N 120.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 121.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 180233 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...THE EIGHTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN CENRTAL AND WESTERN CUBA CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 180235 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIER FROM AT2 TO AT3 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 55.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 56.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 57.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 58.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180200 UTC 00HR 17.0N 108.1E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 180238 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.6W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.6W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 139.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.4N 140.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.0N 141.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 143.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 139.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 180239 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIER FROM AT1 TO AT3 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN CENRTAL AND WESTERN CUBA CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 69.7W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 69.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 180240 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIER FROM AT1 TO AT3 ...THE EIGHTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN CENRTAL AND WESTERN CUBA CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.0 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 180241 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 CORRECTED AWIPS IDENTIFIER FROM AT1 TO AT3 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.1N 73.6W 44 X X X 44 FT PIERCE FL X X 8 10 18 23.6N 75.5W 19 12 X X 31 COCOA BEACH FL X X 4 12 16 24.0N 77.7W X 17 7 2 26 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 11 12 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 8 8 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 MUGM 200N 751W 1 X 1 2 4 KEY WEST FL X X 5 13 18 MUCM 214N 779W X 4 5 4 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 6 13 19 MUCF 221N 805W X X 5 9 14 FT MYERS FL X X 4 14 18 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 9 9 VENICE FL X X 2 15 17 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 12 13 TAMPA FL X X 1 14 15 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 5 5 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 12 12 MBJT 215N 712W 43 X X X 43 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8 MYMM 224N 730W 45 X X X 45 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 8 8 MYSM 241N 745W 30 5 X X 35 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 7 7 MYEG 235N 758W 14 14 1 X 29 PENSACOLA FL X X X 4 4 MYAK 241N 776W X 18 7 1 26 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X 17 9 1 27 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X 2 16 4 22 GULF 29N 85W X X X 10 10 MARATHON FL X X 9 10 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 MIAMI FL X X 14 7 21 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL X X 12 8 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 180243 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 15NE 25SE 25SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 55.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 55.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 56.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 57.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 58.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 180243 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.8N 56.4W 43 X X X 43 TKPK 173N 627W X 1 4 6 11 17.0N 57.3W 21 4 1 X 26 TNCM 181N 631W X X 4 7 11 18.1N 58.3W 3 14 3 2 22 TISX 177N 648W X X 1 5 6 TBPB 131N 595W 1 3 2 1 7 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 5 6 TVSV 131N 612W X 1 1 2 4 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 2 2 TLPL 138N 610W X 2 2 2 6 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 4 4 TFFF 146N 610W X 3 3 3 9 ST CROIX VI X X 1 5 6 TDPR 153N 614W X 3 3 4 10 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 5 6 80400 157N 636W X X 2 4 6 SAN JUAN PR X X X 4 4 TFFR 163N 615W X 3 5 4 12 PONCE PR X X X 2 2 TAPA 171N 618W X 2 6 5 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 180245 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.8W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.8W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.2N 59.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...135NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.8N 53.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.6N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.2N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 63.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 67.0N 5.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 63.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 180246 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 48.8N 53.4W 22 6 1 X 29 SYDNEY NS 57 X X X 57 50.6N 47.0W X 14 4 X 18 EDDY POINT NS 68 X X X 68 52.2N 40.5W X 1 9 3 13 PTX BASQUES NFLD 40 X X X 40 MONCTON NB 2 X X X 2 BURGEO NFLD 42 X X X 42 YARMOUTH NS 99 X X X 99 ILE ST PIERRE 38 X X X 38 HALIFAX NS 99 X X X 99 CAPE RACE NFLD 17 6 X X 23 SABLE ISLAND NS 29 X X X 29 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 13 2 X 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 180248 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE COLD WATER OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 555 MILES... 890 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH ...46 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OPHELIA NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...43.9 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 180248 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 A 2228Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED A VERY SMALL...ROUND EYE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE ENTIRE SYSTEM...RAINBANDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY AIR COULD POSSIBLY BE ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID- LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 90 KT. INTENSITY MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT JOVA HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. BY DAY 4...UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS... THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST... BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 13.4N 140.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 141.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 142.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 143.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 145.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 148.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 180253 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO DIEZ Y OCHO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SABADOS 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO DIEZ Y OCHO SE FORMA AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS... ...SE EMITEN VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS... A LAS 11 PM EDT..0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y PARA LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMEMTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM EDT...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL NOROESTE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN LA PARTE SUR DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA...Y EL CENTRO Y OCCIDENTE DE LA ISLA DE CUBA DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGESO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y OCHO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.7 OESTE O COMO A 95 MILLAS...155 KM...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LA ISLA DE GRAND TURK. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION SE PODRIAN CONVERTIR EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE EL DOMINGO. UN AVION DE DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA PAUTADA A INVESTIGAR LA DEPRESION DURANTE EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. LA DEPRESION PODRIA PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS TURKS Y CAICOS...Y SOBRE LAS ISLAS BAHAMAS DEL SURESTE Y CENTRALES...CON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...22.0 NORTE...69.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL OESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIACOMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTNT43 KNHC 180311 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB AND EARLIER SHIP REPORTS. BANDING HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SEVERAL MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND THE SURFACE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TD-18 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT... MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BUILDS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FILLING RDIGE WEAKNESS IS UNCERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER OR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HOURS. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CIRCULATION CENTER COULD EASILY DEVELOP ANY WHERE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS... WHICH COULD RESULT IN NORTH-SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAN THE TRACK FORECAST IS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 30C AND WARMER SSTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR DOES NOT GET ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. AFTERWARDS... THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN 20 KT AND LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT 73 KT. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A SIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH STRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A 120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION MAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 22.0N 69.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 71.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 23.1N 73.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 75.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.0N 77.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 90.5W 80 KT $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 180313 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTENN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 485 MILES... 780 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES ... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.1 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC 00HR 17.1N 107.9E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTNT42 KNHC 180330 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MCIROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 17/2154Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THE SURFACE CENTER WEST OF 55W LONGITUDE...WHEREAS THE RECON POSITION NEAR THAT TIME INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF 55W. MY FEELING IS THAT THE RECON CENTER WAS A SMALL CIRCULATION ROTATING NORTHWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THAT THE TWO CENTERS HAVE NOW CONSOLIDATED NEAR 55W. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING PHILIPPE AROUND 06Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THIS REGION OF THE ATLANTIC...AND PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THAT MAY RESULT IN A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...BUT IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST MOTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 30C AND WARMER SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEREFORE...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. BASED ON THE MORE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILES. HOWEVER...WITH STEERING CURRENTS BEING RATHER WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...ANY WESTWARD SHIFT COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.1N 55.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 55.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.8N 56.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 57.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 58.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.6N 59.9W 75 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 61.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W 95 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 180331 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA SOBRE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMEROS DIEZ Y SIETE SE CONVIERTIO EN LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES CENTRALES Y DEL NORTE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE PHILIPPE...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL PHILIPPE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.2 OESTE O COMO A 295 MILLAS...475 KM...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BARBADOS O CERCA DE 485 MILLAS... 780 KM... AL ESTE SURESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. PHILIPPE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDEN HASTA 30 MILLAS ...45 KM FUERA DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...14.1 NORTE...55.2 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 180336 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 24-25 KT...ALL THE WHILE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW- TO MID-60F RANGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT OPHELIA IS...OR IS VERY NEAR...BEING AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OPHELIA FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS POSSIBLY A GALE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY NOAA'S OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 43.9N 63.8W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 18/1200Z 46.2N 59.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 19/0000Z 48.8N 53.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/1200Z 50.6N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/0000Z 52.2N 40.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/0000Z 63.0N 11.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 23/0000Z 67.0N 5.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/18335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/18340ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 025 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 139.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 139.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 13.4N 140.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.0N 141.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.0N 143.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 16.0N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.5N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 180400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180330ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/180340ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 014 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 127.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 127.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.6N 129.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.1N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.6N 130.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.1N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.0N 135.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND 190400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 16.7N 107.8E FAIR MOVE WSW 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 19.5N 100.6E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180400 UTC 00HR 17.3N 107.6E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 180445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (101.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 180445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (101.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(GLOBAL MODEL) ON TS 0516 V ICENTE (0516) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 18 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 42 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FO R FORECAST.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 180500 UTC 00HR 17.3N 107.3E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 180543 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...FIRST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE SYSTEM SHORTLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAD BEEN SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE HAS BEEN DIVERTED AND WILL BE REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN SHORTLY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF OF 8 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N... 70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 180548 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 139.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.8N 139.5W STRONG 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.5N 140.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.2N 142.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.6N 143.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 15.2N 145.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 15.3N 146.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 15.2N 147.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 15.2N 148.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 14.8N 149.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 15.4N 150.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.7N 150.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 16.2N 151.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 16.3N 152.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 128.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.9N 128.0W STRONG 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.0N 129.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.1N 130.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 13.7N 130.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 13.7N 131.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 13.2N 131.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 13.2N 132.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 13.6N 132.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 14.3N 133.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 14.7N 134.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.6N 134.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 16.4N 135.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 17.2N 135.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM LIDIA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 116.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.3N 116.1W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2005 12.3N 117.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 13.1N 118.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.3N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 15.4N 120.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 16.4N 122.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 17.9N 123.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 19.7N 123.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.0N 124.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 21.8N 125.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 22.3N 125.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 7.5N 91.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2005 7.5N 91.8W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2005 8.2N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 9.4N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 9.7N 103.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 10.3N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 11.1N 105.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 11.4N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 13.1N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 13.6N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 13.7N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 14.8N 108.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 15.5N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 43.2N 64.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 43.2N 64.8W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2005 46.8N 59.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 55.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.9N 55.3W MODERATE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.7N 55.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.0N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 17.2N 57.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.0N 58.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 18.9N 59.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.2N 59.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 21.2N 60.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 23.0N 60.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.9N 60.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 27.1N 61.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 29.4N 62.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2005 32.1N 62.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 22.1N 70.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 22.1N 70.3W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2005 22.7N 72.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 22.9N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 23.5N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 23.7N 79.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 23.7N 83.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 23.2N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 22.9N 90.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 23.0N 92.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 23.2N 95.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 24.4N 96.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 26.1N 98.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2005 27.7N 100.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 11.2N 34.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 11.2N 34.4W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2005 12.3N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.0N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 15.4N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 16.7N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.2N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 18.1N 46.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 18.7N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180548