** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 17.1N 110.0E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 103.5E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 171800 *** WARNING 171800. WARNING VALID 181800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 17.1N 109.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 19.8N 102.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 21.3N 099.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 171800UTC 17.1N 109.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 181800UTC 19.8N 102.2E 100NM 70% MOVE WNW 19KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 191800UTC 21.3N 099.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL (TYPHOON MODEL) TS 0516 VI CENTE (0516) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 54HOURS. = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL (GLOBAL MODEL)ON TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 30 HOURS. = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171900 UTC 00HR 17.1N 109.9E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 172100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 16.8N 110.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 110.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.0N 107.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.4N 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.7N 101.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 109.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 171945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (103.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 171945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (103.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT71 KNHC 172035 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 47.7N 56.5W 22 6 1 X 29 SABLE ISLAND NS 28 X X X 28 49.8N 50.4W X 14 4 1 19 SYDNEY NS 42 X X X 42 51.4N 43.2W X X 10 3 13 EDDY POINT NS 48 X 1 X 49 EASTPORT ME 3 X X X 3 PTX BASQUES NFLD 32 X 1 X 33 ST JOHN NB 10 X X X 10 BURGEO NFLD 28 3 X X 31 MONCTON NB 15 X X X 15 ILE ST PIERRE 21 6 X 1 28 YARMOUTH NS 46 X X X 46 CAPE RACE NFLD 3 15 1 X 19 HALIFAX NS 60 X X X 60 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 6 7 1 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 172000 UTC 00HR 17.2N 109.8E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 172037 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 139.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.2N 141.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...115NE 115SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.6N 143.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 147.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 19.0N 149.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 139.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 172037 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...STILL LOSING ORGANIZATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 205 MILES... 325 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OPHELIA NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...42.4 N... 66.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 172038 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.4N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 129.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.9N 131.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.2N 133.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 172038 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONG CONVECTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN...WITH THE REPORTED POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT SO FAR ARE 40 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT IT SHOULD REACH THAT STATUS SOMETIME TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS... WITH PERHAPS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER THREE DAYS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM STILL DO NOT NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE. THUS... STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A LITTLE LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HR AGO AS IT IS FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...IN BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.6N 56.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 57.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.6N 58.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 59.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 62.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W 95 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 172039 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 54.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.6N 56.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 58.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.6N 59.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 172039 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.6W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.6W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.5N 115.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.6N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.8N 116.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 14.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 172040 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 172040 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND -85 DEGREES CELSIUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 2.5 OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...TWELVE-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LIDIA. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA...INTERACTION AND/OR MERGING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS LIDIA BETWEEN 35 KT AND 45 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/03. THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND THE DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT..BUT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY TRACK LIDIA TO THE NORTH. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.5N 115.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 115.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 12.6N 116.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 12.8N 116.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 13.2N 117.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 13.7N 117.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 14.5N 118.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 15.0N 119.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 172040 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.6N 57.1W 55 X X X 55 TAPA 171N 618W X 3 11 5 19 16.6N 58.1W 30 5 X X 35 TKPK 173N 627W X 1 8 7 16 17.6N 59.1W 6 19 2 1 28 TNCM 181N 631W X X 6 10 16 TGPY 120N 618W X X X 2 2 TISX 177N 648W X X 1 9 10 TBPB 131N 595W 1 6 1 2 10 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 9 10 TVSV 131N 612W X 1 2 3 6 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 5 5 TLPL 138N 610W X 3 4 3 10 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 6 6 TFFF 146N 610W X 5 5 3 13 ST CROIX VI X X 1 9 10 TDPR 153N 614W X 5 7 3 15 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 9 10 80400 157N 636W X X 2 7 9 SAN JUAN PR X X X 6 6 TFFR 163N 615W X 5 9 4 18 PONCE PR X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 172044 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 WELL DEFINED BANDING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT THE OUTER BANDING ELSEWHERE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A WARMING PHASE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT. A RESENT SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1729 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE NE OF CURRENT POSITION...AND AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT PACKAGE. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEREAFTER JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS... THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND DIGGING SE WITH TIME. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.5N 139.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 13.2N 141.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.8W 90 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 14.6N 143.9W 85 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 17.3N 147.3W 70 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 149.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 172045 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 66.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 66.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.8N 62.6W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 47.7N 56.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.8N 50.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 51.4N 43.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 55.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 60.5N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 66.0N 7.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N 66.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 172046 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMBERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SABADO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE ACERCA A INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... SE MUEVE AL NOROESTE AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTA DEPRESION. PODRIAN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PARA PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. PARA INFORMACION SOBRE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y SIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.2 OESTE O COMO A 290 MILLAS...470 KM...AL ESTE DE BARBADOS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONOSCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...13.8 NORTE...55.2 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. BEVEN TRADUCTOR APONTE $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 172051 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 OPHELIA IS CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING MINIMAL CONVECTION...AND A TROUGH OR POSSIBLE FRONTAL BAND CONTINUES TO FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 12 HR... BUT MAINTAIN GALE TO POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21. OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEAST NEAR OR ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 42.4N 66.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 44.8N 62.6W 50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 18/1800Z 47.7N 56.5W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/0600Z 49.8N 50.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/1800Z 51.4N 43.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1800Z 55.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1800Z 60.5N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/1800Z 66.0N 7.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 172101 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE 20 NM WIDE SYMMETRIC EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T-NUMBER 5.5..OR 102 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY 28.0 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS...THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SSTS COOL SLIGHTLY AND NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED. ALL THE DYANAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE UKMET...KEEP KENNETH SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT AND NORTH OF THE BAROTROPIC MODELS. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAKER. BASED ON A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS...THE RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST NOAA WAVE WATCH THREE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.0N 127.5W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 128.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 14.8N 129.3W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 15.9N 131.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 17.2N 133.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 172100 UTC 00HR 17.2N 109.6E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 19.9N 102.7E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 172100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 172100UTC 17.2N 109.5E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 182100UTC 19.9N 101.9E 100NM 70% MOVE WNW 19KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 191800UTC 21.3N 099.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 172200 UTC 00HR 17.2N 109.4E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/170935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 024 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 12.4N 139.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 139.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.7N 140.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 13.2N 141.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 13.9N 142.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.6N 143.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.0N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.3N 147.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.0N 149.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) AT 18 UTC IS VALID TILL 36 HOURS.= ** WTPN33 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/172130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/172135ZSEP2005// REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 115.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 115.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.5N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.6N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.8N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 13.2N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 13.7N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 15.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 172200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/172130ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/172140ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 013 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 127.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 127.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.4N 128.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.8N 129.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.3N 130.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.9N 131.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.7N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.2N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 17.5N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LIDIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 172245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 172100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 172245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 172100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT31 KNHC 172342 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA TO ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AS IT CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...42 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OPHELIA NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...CAPE SABLE NOVA SCOTIA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 MPH...59 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. CANADIAN BUOY 44142 LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH... 54 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 42 MPH...68 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON CANADIAN BUOY REPORTS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...43.1 N... 65.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 172300 UTC 00HR 17.2N 109.2E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H=