** WTUS81 KBOX 171218 *** HLSBOX MAZ019>024-ANZ231>237-254-255-171630- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 815 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...MAIN IMPACT FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY...PROBABLY BY AROUND MIDDAY. ALL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA WILL PASS AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO NANTUCKET AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH ANY SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE TRACK OF OPHELIA TO THE NORTHWEST COULD SPREAD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO MARTHAS VINEYARD AND THE OUTER CAPE. ACROSS NANTUCKET...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH FOR A SHORT TIME LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS MARTHAS VINEYARD AND OUTER CAPE COD. THUS FAR...NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY SOUTH OF NANTUCKET ISLAND HAS GUSTED AS HIGH AS 54 MPH OR 47 KNOTS. OPHELIA IS CONTINUING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER...AND THE WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER HAS WEAKENED. MOST OF THE STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH OPHELIA ARE OVER THE OPEN WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES ON NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE (NGVD) (NGVD) (2 FT SURGE NGVD) NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 3.7 FT ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND PORTIONS OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IN MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL OPHELIA HAS PASSED AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BEACHES FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY AROUND 1130 AM EDT. $$ THOMPSON ** WTUS81 KBOX 171218 *** HLSBOX MAZ019>024-ANZ231>237-254-255-171630- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 815 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...MAIN IMPACT FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY...PROBABLY BY AROUND MIDDAY. ALL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA WILL PASS AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING. ...WIND IMPACTS... IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO NANTUCKET AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH ANY SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE TRACK OF OPHELIA TO THE NORTHWEST COULD SPREAD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO MARTHAS VINEYARD AND THE OUTER CAPE. ACROSS NANTUCKET...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH FOR A SHORT TIME LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS MARTHAS VINEYARD AND OUTER CAPE COD. THUS FAR...NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY SOUTH OF NANTUCKET ISLAND HAS GUSTED AS HIGH AS 54 MPH OR 47 KNOTS. OPHELIA IS CONTINUING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER...AND THE WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER HAS WEAKENED. MOST OF THE STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH OPHELIA ARE OVER THE OPEN WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MOST VULNERABLE EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES ON NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE (NGVD) (NGVD) (2 FT SURGE NGVD) NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 3.7 FT ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND PORTIONS OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IN MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL OPHELIA HAS PASSED AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BEACHES FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY AROUND 1130 AM EDT. $$ THOMPSON ** WTJP21 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 16.6N 111.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 19.2N 104.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 20.8N 099.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 16.6N 111.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 19.2N 104.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 191200UTC 20.8N 099.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 16.6N 111.8E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 19.4N 105.0E 985HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.0N 100.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 111.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 111.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.4N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.8N 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.5N 103.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 110.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171300 UTC 00HR 16.6N 111.3E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 171345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 350 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (104.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) NINE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (97.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 171345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 350 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 200 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (104.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) NINE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (97.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT31 KNHC 171431 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...40.7 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 171431 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 46.4N 59.8W 22 7 X X 29 HALIFAX NS 44 X X X 44 48.8N 53.8W X 14 4 X 18 SABLE ISLAND NS 21 2 1 X 24 50.5N 47.0W X 1 9 3 13 SYDNEY NS 25 5 X X 30 NANTUCKET MA 22 X X X 22 EDDY POINT NS 33 1 X X 34 HYANNIS MA 7 X X X 7 PTX BASQUES NFLD 12 13 X X 25 BAR HARBOR ME 6 X X X 6 BURGEO NFLD 5 18 X 1 24 EASTPORT ME 17 X X X 17 ILE ST PIERRE 2 19 X X 21 ST JOHN NB 26 X X X 26 CAPE RACE NFLD X 12 4 X 16 MONCTON NB 26 X X X 26 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 9 2 12 YARMOUTH NS 51 X X X 51 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 171432 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 69.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 69.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 69.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.4N 65.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.4N 59.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.8N 53.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 59.0N 16.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 64.0N 7.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 69.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 171435 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.9N 56.9W 50 X X X 50 TKPK 173N 627W X X 7 8 15 16.1N 57.9W 21 10 X X 31 TNCM 181N 631W X X 5 10 15 17.3N 58.9W 1 19 4 2 26 TISX 177N 648W X X 1 7 8 TBPB 131N 595W 4 7 1 X 12 TIST 183N 650W X X X 8 8 TVSV 131N 612W X 2 2 2 6 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 3 3 TLPL 138N 610W X 4 4 2 10 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 5 5 TFFF 146N 610W X 7 4 2 13 ST CROIX VI X X 1 7 8 TDPR 153N 614W X 5 6 4 15 ST THOMAS VI X X X 8 8 80400 157N 636W X X 2 6 8 SAN JUAN PR X X X 5 5 TFFR 163N 615W X 4 9 4 17 PONCE PR X X X 3 3 TAPA 171N 618W X 2 10 6 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 171435 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.0 N... 55.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 171435 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 55.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 171436 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005 1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005 INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 55.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 55.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 171446 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MAC001-007-019-023-ANZ231-232-254-255-172100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTCA42 TJSJ 171447 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMBERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SABADO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...SE FORMA LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y SIETE AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTA DEPRESION. PODRIAN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PARA PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION SOBRE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y SIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.0 OESTE O COMO A 305 MILLAS...490 KM...AL ESTE DE BARBADOS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...13.0 NORTE...55.0 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. BEVEN TRADUCTOR APONTE $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 171447 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN ADVERTENCIA SOBRE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMBERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SABADO 17 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...SE FORMA LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y SIETE AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO... LOS INTERESES EN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTA DEPRESION. PODRIAN REQUERIRSE VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PARA PORCIONES DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION SOBRE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA... INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ Y SIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 55.0 OESTE O COMO A 305 MILLAS...490 KM...AL ESTE DE BARBADOS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...13.0 NORTE...55.0 OESTE. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. BEVEN TRADUCTOR APONTE $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 171450 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...AS 40 KT WINDS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD RAIN CONTAMINATION PROBLEMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST GFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND LBAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...AND THIS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER THE POSITION AND MOTION OF THE CYCLONE ARE BETTER ESTABLISHED. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.0N 55.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W 95 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 171454 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.1N 127.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 128.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.9N 129.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.3N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 171455 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122005 1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 115.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 115.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.6N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.1N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 171456 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 138.3W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 138.3W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 138.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.4N 139.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.9N 140.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.4N 141.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.1N 142.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 144.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 146.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.4N 148.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 138.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 171457 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 AN IMPRESSIVE OUTER BAND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHILE THE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS THE E SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 660 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.3N 138.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.4N 139.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.9N 140.6W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 13.4N 141.7W 95 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 142.9W 90 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.3N 144.6W 80 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 146.3W 65 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.4N 148.3W 65 KT $$ ** WTUS81 KBOX 171457 *** HLSBOX MAZ019>024-ANZ231>237-254-255-171600- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS NOW RACING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WATERS ABOUT NOVA SCOTIA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OPHELIA. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR EXPOSED PORTIONS OF THE COAST FROM WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND TO CHATHAM...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM CHATHAM TO PROVINCETOWN. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALSO INCLUDES BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS ENDED. NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY SOUTH OF NANTUCKET ISLAND GUSTED TO 54 MPH OR 47 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT...COMBINED WITH ROUGH SEAS...MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES OF NANTUCKET. HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AT 10 AM...SEAS WERE STILL RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET AT THE NANTUCKET SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL SEAS HAVE A CHANCE TO SUBSIDE. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF FROM OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE CAPE COD NATIONAL SEA SHORE...AND THE MORE EXPOSED BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED IN THIS AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON OPHELIA. $$ THOMPSON ** WTNT41 KNHC 171458 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 OPHELIA IS CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION...AND A TROUGH OR POSSIBLE FRONTAL BAND IS FORMING SOUTH OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BUT MAINTAIN GALE TO POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/18. OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 40.7N 69.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 43.4N 65.3W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 18/1200Z 46.4N 59.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/0000Z 48.8N 53.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/1200Z 50.5N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1200Z 54.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1200Z 59.0N 16.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/1200Z 64.0N 7.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171400 UTC 00HR 16.6N 111.1E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 171505 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 1152Z SSMI OVERPASS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 25NM CLEAR SYMMETRIC EYE. THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF KENNETH HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE MOST LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 08Z EARLY THIS MORNING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 5.5...102KT...FROM TAFB...AND 5.0...90KT... FROM SAB. LATEST AODT ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.6 AND 5.8 WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE SHIPS MAINTAINS KENNETH OVER A 100KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WEAKEN KENNETH TO 95KT AND 80KT RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.7N 126.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.1N 127.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 128.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 14.9N 129.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.3N 130.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 171530 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND 12Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35KT FROM TAFB AND 30KT FROM SAB RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 400NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF TWELVE-E. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TWELVE-E OR THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT AN UNCERTAIN 285/04. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION WOULD BE STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST. IF THIS NORTHWARD FORECAST TRACK MATERIALIZES... THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN ONLY TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS AND NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT PACKAGE FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK LATER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.6N 115.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.7N 115.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 13.2N 117.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 13.6N 118.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 119.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 121.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 17.0N 110.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 23KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 19.6N 103.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 191200UTC 20.8N 099.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 171500 *** WARNING 171500. WARNING VALID 181500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 17.0N 110.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 23 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 19.6N 103.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171500 UTC 00HR 16.7N 110.9E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 171600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/170935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 023 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 138.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 138.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.4N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.9N 140.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 13.4N 141.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.1N 142.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.3N 144.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.5N 146.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.4N 148.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ** WTIN20 DEMS 171622 *** SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC (.) MORNING DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARDS AND IT LAY CENTRE AT 1730 HRS IST NEAR LAT. 20.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 90.0 DEG E ABOUT 350 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE IN ORISSA. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AAA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171600 UTC 00HR 16.9N 110.6E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 171600 *** SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/171530ZSEP2005// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/171540ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 13.6N 126.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 126.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.1N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 128.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.9N 129.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.3N 130.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 18.0N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 171645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 171645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 360 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN33 PHNC 171600 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MY/171051Z SEP 05// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/171530ZSEP2005// REF/C/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/171535ZSEP2005// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 114.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 114.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.7N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 13.2N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 13.6N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.4N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.0N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 171051Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 171100 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WIND SPEED AT TAU 0 TO INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ** WTNT31 KNHC 171747 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...EAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 340 MILES... 550 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...41.3 N... 68.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 171748 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 137.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.2N 137.9W STRONG 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.7N 139.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.4N 140.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 13.9N 140.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.4N 141.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.5N 142.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.0N 143.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 13.7N 144.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.2N 143.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 15.1N 143.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 16.6N 145.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 18.7N 146.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 19.4N 149.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 126.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.7N 126.1W STRONG 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.0N 128.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 15.2N 129.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.4N 130.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 15.7N 132.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 16.3N 134.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 17.2N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 114.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.8N 114.4W MODERATE 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.8N 115.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.1N 116.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.0N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.6N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 16.0N 120.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 16.7N 120.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 17.7N 122.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 18.6N 123.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 19.4N 124.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 19.7N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 19.4N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 18.8N 128.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION 14.3N 107.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.3N 107.5W MODERATE 00UTC 18.09.2005 16.0N 108.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTS 18.09.2005 17.5N 110.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 19.2N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 20.2N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 21.2N 110.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 54.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 54.4W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.5N 55.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.6N 57.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.1N 57.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 16.9N 59.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.7N 60.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 18.2N 61.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 19.1N 61.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 20.1N 62.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.2N 62.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 22.8N 62.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 24.8N 62.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 27.3N 62.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 40.1N 69.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2005 40.1N 69.6W STRONG 00UTC 18.09.2005 42.8N 65.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 46.9N 59.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 EXTRA - TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 22.8N 70.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 22.8N 70.1W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2005 21.8N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 23.6N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 22.7N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 22.8N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 22.7N 85.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 22.9N 88.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 22.9N 91.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 23.0N 94.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 23.6N 95.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 25.4N 97.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2005 26.8N 99.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 11.8N 35.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2005 11.8N 35.0W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2005 13.8N 35.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.7N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.6N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 16.4N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.1N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 17.7N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 17.5N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 19.0N 48.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2005 19.7N 51.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171748 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 171700 UTC 00HR 17.1N 110.2E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H=