** WTNT31 KNHC 170600 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 355 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 605 MILES... 980 KM... SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM... MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...38.3 N... 71.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 15.4N 113.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 18.3N 107.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 20.2N 100.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 15.4N 113.7E FAIR MOVE NNW 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 18.3N 107.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 190600UTC 20.2N 100.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 15.3N 113.6E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 18.7N 109.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 21.4N 103.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTUS81 KBOX 170707 *** HLSBOX MAZ019>024-RIZ005>008-171030- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 300 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS ACCELERATING AND WILL PASS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND BY MIDDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...OPHELIA WILL PASS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND MIDDAY...CLOSE TO THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF LOSING SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...THE WIND FIELD NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. BETWEEN WESTPORT AND WOODS HOLE AND ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY... THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST OF WESTPORT TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS MORNING. REMEMBER...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE THIS MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE OUTER CAPE WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM CENTER. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE (NGVD) (NGVD) (3 FT SURGE NGVD) NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 4.7 FT WOODS HOLE 5.7 FT 1.6 FT/ 800 AM 4.6 FT ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR OPHELIA SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE DETAILED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ARE CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT AROUND 6 AM EDT. $$ VALLIER-TALBOT ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 170600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0516 VICENTE ANALYSIS POSITION 170600UTC 15.4N 113.8E MOVEMENT NNW 16KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 180600UTC 19.0N 107.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 190600UTC 21.0N 100.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 994HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 60 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 113.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 113.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.8N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.4N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.5N 104.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 22.4N 101.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 113.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 170745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (102.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) NINE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (97.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 170745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (102.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) NINE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (97.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. ** WTIN20 DEMS 170650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL WITH ITS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.5 DEG. EAST OF BALASORE (42895) IN ORISSA THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ANDAMAN SEA . RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT21 KNHC 170836 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z SAT SEP 17 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 70.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 70.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 42.1N 67.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 45.4N 62.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 48.0N 56.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.6N 49.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 52.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 57.0N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 62.5N 7.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 70.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 170844 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 505 MILES... 815 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...39.5 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 170845 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 45.4N 62.4W 19 6 X X 25 MONCTON NB 21 2 X X 23 48.0N 56.3W X 14 3 X 17 YARMOUTH NS 37 X X X 37 49.6N 49.7W X 1 9 2 12 HALIFAX NS 26 2 X X 28 MONTAUK POINT NY 4 X X X 4 SABLE ISLAND NS 6 11 X 1 18 PROVIDENCE RI 6 X X X 6 SYDNEY NS 6 15 1 X 22 NANTUCKET MA 53 X X X 53 EDDY POINT NS 13 10 X 1 24 HYANNIS MA 33 X X X 33 PTX BASQUES NFLD 2 17 1 X 20 BOSTON MA 5 X X X 5 BURGEO NFLD X 17 1 1 19 PORTLAND ME 4 X X X 4 ILE ST PIERRE X 14 3 X 17 BAR HARBOR ME 17 X X X 17 CAPE RACE NFLD X 5 8 X 13 EASTPORT ME 24 X X X 24 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 7 4 11 ST JOHN NB 25 X 1 X 26 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 170848 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0900Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 137.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...115NE 95SE 95SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 137.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170850 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 125.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 170853 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 .TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MAC001-007-019-023-ANZ231-232-254-255-171500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ MAC005-ANZ233-234-235-171500- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 WESTPORT-MA 41.45N 71.20W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170901 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z SAT SEP 17 2005 ...CORRECTED ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 960 MB... HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 125.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 170901 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 OPHELIA IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. RECON MEASURED AT 06Z A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY AS AS STRONG AS 63 KT...WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. DROPSONDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT MEASURED ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE ABOUT 120 N MI FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THE RECON DATA...THE WIND RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 50 KT. THE INCREASING RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SEEN ON SATELLITE... WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...ARE INDICATIONS THAT OPHELIA WILL SOON BE EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...IT COULD MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS CURRENT INTENSITY WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...040/18. OPHELIA IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BEND IN THE PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE... AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 39.5N 70.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 42.1N 67.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 18/0600Z 45.4N 62.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 56.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/0600Z 49.6N 49.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0600Z 52.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0600Z 57.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/0600Z 62.5N 7.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 170905 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 A 0435Z SSMI OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A ROUND...13 NM CLEAR EYE. CORE CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE AODT SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 117 KT. 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES CLIMBED TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS AN THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE GFDL DROPS THE INTENSITY TO 75 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HEDGES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...MAINTAINING 90 KT AT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S PATH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE GFDL AND THE GFS SUGGEST A MORE ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH NEAR 131/132W...WHILE THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN AND THE UKMET INDICATE A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE WEAKNESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET WHICH SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.6N 125.8W 110 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W 105 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W 90 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 170907 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTER BANDS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.2N 137.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W 90 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W 70 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTUS81 KBOX 170913 *** HLSBOX MAZ019>024-ANZ231>237-254-255-171330- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 510 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...WINDS FROM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL JUST BRUSH THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WESTPORT TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...OPHELIA WILL PASS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND MIDDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS... A FEW HOURS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ON NANTUCKET LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ACROSS MARTHAS VINEYARD AND THE OUTER CAPE. OPHELIA IS CONTINUING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER...AND THE WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED BETWEEN WESTPORT AND WOODS HOLE...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COASTLINE. REMEMBER...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOME EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES ON NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND THE OUTER CAPE. THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE (NGVD) (NGVD) (3 FT SURGE NGVD) NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 4.7 FT ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR OPHELIA ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE WATER...SINCE THE HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BEACHES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ARE CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 830 AM EDT. $$ THOMPSON ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 170900 UTC 00HR 15.8N 113.1E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 19.1N 108.5E 980HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 170900 *** WARNING 170900. WARNING VALID 180900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 16.1N 112.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 18.9N 106.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 16.1N 112.9E FAIR MOVE NW 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 240NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 18.9N 106.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 190600UTC 20.2N 100.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 171000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/170930ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 125.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 125.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.9N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.3N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.7N 128.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.1N 129.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.8N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 17.5N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 171000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/170935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 12.2N 137.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 137.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.4N 138.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.7N 140.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 13.3N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 13.9N 142.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.2N 144.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.5N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.0N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL (TYPHOON MODEL) ON TS 051 6 VICENTE (0516 ) AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 66 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 171045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) NINE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (99.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 171045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) NINE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (99.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN22 PGTW 171130 *** REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171051Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 171100)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 104.5W TO 15.2N 110.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181130Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.3W // EP, 96, 2005091506, , BEST, 0, 117N, 934W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091512, , BEST, 0, 118N, 942W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091518, , BEST, 0, 118N, 951W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091600, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091606, , BEST, 0, 122N, 990W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091618, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091700, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1049W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091706, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1059W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN22 PGTW 171130 RRB *** , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091700, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1049W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091706, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1059W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTPN22 PGTW 171130 RRA *** REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171051Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 171100)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 104.5W TO 15.2N 110.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181130Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.3W // EP, 96, 2005091506, , BEST, 0, 117N, 934W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091512, , BEST, 0, 118N, 942W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091518, , BEST, 0, 118N, 951W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091600, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091606, , BEST, 0, 122N, 990W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091618, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, ** WTPN22 PGTW 171130 *** REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171051Z SEP 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 171100)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 104.5W TO 15.2N 110.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181130Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.3W // EP, 96, 2005091506, , BEST, 0, 117N, 934W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091512, , BEST, 0, 118N, 942W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091518, , BEST, 0, 118N, 951W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091600, , BEST, 0, 120N, 970W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091606, , BEST, 0, 122N, 990W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 96, 2005091612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091618, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1030W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091700, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1049W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, EP, 96, 2005091706, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1059W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, ** WTSS20 VHHH 171045 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) NINE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (99.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 171045 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) NINE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (99.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN22 PHNC 171130 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 171121ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171051ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 171100)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 104.5W TO 15.2N 110.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181130Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.4W// ** WTPN21 PGTW 171100 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 113.9W TO 13.6N 118.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181100Z. // EP, 95, 2005091506, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1060W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091512, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1070W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091518, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1080W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091600, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1087W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091606, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1096W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091612, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1107W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091618, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1124W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091700, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1132W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091706, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1143W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, ** WTPN22 PHNC 171130 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 171121ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171051ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 171100)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 104.5W TO 15.2N 110.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181130Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.4W// ** WTPN21 PGTW 171100 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 113.9W TO 13.6N 118.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181100Z. // EP, 95, 2005091506, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1060W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091512, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1070W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091518, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1080W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091600, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1087W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091606, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1096W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 95, 2005091612, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1107W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091618, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1124W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091700, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1132W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, EP, 95, 2005091706, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1143W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, ** WTPN21 PHNC 171100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/171051ZSEP2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171121ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 113.9W TO 13.6N 118.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 114.4W, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181100Z. 4. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 171030) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W// ** WTNT31 KNHC 171158 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ...OPHELIA ABOUT TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA... EXCEPT FOR CUMBERLAND AND COLCHESTER COUNTIES WHICH ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM... SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 470 MILES... 755 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...34 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...39.9 N... 69.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$