** WTJP21 RJTD 170000 *** WARNING 170000. WARNING VALID 180000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 13.5N 114.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 16.9N 108.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 19.3N 100.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 23.4N 093.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 13.5N 114.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 16.9N 108.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 190000UTC 19.3N 100.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 19KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 200000UTC 23.4N 093.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 13.5N 114.5E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 430KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 16.6N 111.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 19.9N 105.6E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTUS81 KBOX 170107 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ005>008-170700- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 907 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS ACCELERATING AND WILL PASS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND BY MIDDAY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND WASHINGTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...DUKES AND NANTUCKET COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY EAST INCLUDING THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...OPHELIA WILL PASS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY...CLOSE TO THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION OF OPHELIA WILL ARRIVE ON THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. A FEW BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH COULD ACCOMPANY THESE HEAVY SHOWERS. A GREATER PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD TOWARD DAYBREAK. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT NANTUCKET WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER. TO THE WEST...FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR AT LEAST WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY FROM NEAR DAYBREAK THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY... DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED AS SHE ACCELERATES PAST NANTUCKET ISLAND. THIS REGION COULD SEE WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND IN AND AROUND BUZZARDS BAY. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE (NGVD) (NGVD) (3 FT SURGE NGVD) NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 4.7 FT WOODS HOLE 5.7 FT 1.6 FT/ 800 AM 4.6 FT ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF NEAR 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST DURATION OF RAIN. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF OPHELIA LIE JUST OFFSHORE. THESE BANDS OF RAIN WERE HEADING GENERALLY NORTH AT 30 MPH AND WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND EAST TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR OPHELIA SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF CAPE COD BAY AND THE COASTLINE FROM BUZZARDS BAY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND SHOULD ALSO PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MORE DETAILED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ARE CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ ISSUED BY NWS TAUNTON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT. $$ DRV ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR THWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 114.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 114.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.7N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.5N 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.0N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.1N 105.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 22.4N 101.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 114.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 170145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (100.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 170145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (100.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. ** WTNT21 KNHC 170235 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 72.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 65.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.7N 53.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.2N 38.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 55.0N 22.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 61.0N 9.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 72.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 170236 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 95SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 170236 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT...115NE 90SE 90SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 136.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 170241 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA GRADUALLY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT PARALLELS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NOVA SCOTIA... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WESTPORT TO CAPE COD TO PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO LUNENBURG. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TRURO WESTWARD TO NORTH OF YARMOUTH...AND FROM EAST OF LUNENBURG EASTWARD TO SHEET HARBOUR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 650 MILES...1045 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...37.8 N... 72.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 170241 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 43.5N 65.5W 19 5 X X 24 MONCTON NB 5 14 X 1 20 46.5N 60.0W X 13 3 X 16 YARMOUTH NS 20 4 X X 24 48.7N 53.8W X X 9 2 11 HALIFAX NS 5 16 X X 21 MONTAUK POINT NY 10 X X X 10 SABLE ISLAND NS X 12 2 X 14 PROVIDENCE RI 11 X X X 11 SYDNEY NS X 13 3 X 16 NANTUCKET MA 38 X X X 38 EDDY POINT NS X 16 2 X 18 HYANNIS MA 29 X X X 29 PTX BASQUES NFLD X 9 6 X 15 BOSTON MA 10 X X X 10 BURGEO NFLD X 5 8 1 14 PORTLAND ME 7 1 X X 8 ILE ST PIERRE X 3 9 1 13 BAR HARBOR ME 16 1 1 X 18 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 8 2 10 EASTPORT ME 16 4 X X 20 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 2 6 8 ST JOHN NB 12 9 X X 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 170247 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA MAC001-005-007-019-023-ANZ231-232-233-234-235-254-255-170900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 WESTPORT-MA 41.45N 71.20W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ RIC001-003-005-007-009-ANZ236-237-350-170900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 WATCH-HILL-RI 41.30N 71.86W WESTPORT-MA 41.45N 71.20W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTPZ45 KNHC 170254 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AQUA-1 MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICT CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION OF THE OUTER BANDS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER COMPACT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JOVA IN A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.3N 136.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 170256 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 A LAST MINUTE RECON REPORT AT 0220Z SUPPORTS WHAT WAS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THAT IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS BY ALMOST 60 NMI. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SHEARING APART...BUT RATHER...THE VORTEX IS JUST TILTED DOWNSTREAM BY THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO RISEN TO 998 MB AND THE RECON WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 50 KT AT 850 MB. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED...SO I AM HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION AND SPEED WAS ORIGINALLY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN... BUT THE TIMELY FIX BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT CREW INDICATES OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... 040 DEGREES...AT 13 KT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS...WHICH ALSO KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AFTER 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HOURS AND THEN TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATER IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OPHELIA NOW. THE 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE 5 MB RISE IN PRESSURE...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION. THE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON A 00Z SHIP REPORT. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DECREASING...INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS FROM AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP OPHELIA A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 37.8N 72.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 18/0000Z 43.5N 65.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 18/1200Z 46.5N 60.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 19/0000Z 48.7N 53.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0000Z 52.2N 38.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0000Z 55.0N 22.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/0000Z 61.0N 9.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 170257 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT KENNETH HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL DEFINED... BUT CLOUD-FILLED EYE...WITH INTENSE OUTER RAINBANDS EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH AGREES WITH THE COUPLED GFDL AND THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SITUATED BETWEEN HURRICANE JOVA TO THE WEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR 135W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.3N 125.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTUS81 KBOX 170334 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ005>008-170830- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1133 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS ACCELERATING AND WILL PASS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND BY MIDDAY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT... NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...OPHELIA WILL PASS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY...CLOSE TO THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... OPHELIA IS BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF LOSING SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...THE WIND FIELD NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SATURDAY. BETWEEN WESTPORT AND WOODS HOLE AND ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY... THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TO THE WEST OF WESTPORT TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. REMEMBER...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ON MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE OUTER CAPE WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM CENTER. STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE (NGVD) (NGVD) (3 FT SURGE NGVD) NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 4.7 FT WOODS HOLE 5.7 FT 1.6 FT/ 800 AM 4.6 FT ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR OPHELIA SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE STEADILY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE DETAILED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ARE CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT AROUND 3 AM EDT. $$ DRV ** WTJP31 RJTD 170300 *** WARNING 170300. WARNING VALID 180300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 14.5N 114.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 17.7N 107.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 170300UTC 14.5N 114.2E FAIR MOVE N 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 180300UTC 17.7N 107.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 190000UTC 19.3N 100.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 19KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 200000UTC 23.4N 093.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/161535ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 136.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 136.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.3N 138.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 12.6N 139.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 13.1N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 13.7N 142.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.0N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 16.0N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.5N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 170400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/161530ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 124.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 124.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.6N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.0N 127.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.4N 128.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.7N 129.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.3N 130.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 16.0N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.5N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 170445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (100.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 170445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 170300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (100.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 15 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 170533 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 136.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.2N 136.6W STRONG 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.2N 137.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.7N 138.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.6N 139.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.0N 139.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.0N 140.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.6N 141.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.6N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 14.2N 144.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.3N 144.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 14.5N 145.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 14.8N 146.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2005 15.6N 146.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 124.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 124.5W STRONG 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.5N 126.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.0N 127.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.6N 128.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.2N 129.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 15.4N 130.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 16.0N 131.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 16.3N 133.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 16.9N 134.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 17.9N 135.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 18.8N 136.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.7N 112.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.7N 112.9W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.8N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.8N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.7N 115.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.7N 116.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 15.5N 116.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.2N 117.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 18.7N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.4N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 21.4N 120.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 22.9N 121.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 22.7N 122.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 22.2N 123.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 104.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.8N 104.4W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.3N 106.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 16.0N 108.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 37.0N 72.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2005 37.0N 72.9W STRONG 12UTC 17.09.2005 39.6N 69.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 43.2N 64.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 46.7N 58.1W MODERATE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 00UTC 19.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.0N 51.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 51.8W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.9N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 15.6N 53.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 16.8N 54.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 17.8N 55.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 18.2N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.2N 58.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 20.1N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 20.1N 59.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 22.0N 60.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 23.1N 60.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 24.5N 60.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2005 25.7N 60.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170533