** WTCA41 TJSJ 161809 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 42 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT VIERNES 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE NORESTE Y DEBILITANDOSE LENTAMENTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND HASTA PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSSETTS...INCLUYENDO MARTHA'S VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMEMTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL SUROESTE DE NOVA SCOTIA DESDE YARMOUTH HASTA LUNENBERG. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 [M EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 36.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.1 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS...170 KM...AL ESTE NORESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 415 MILLAS...670 KM AL SUR SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSSETTS. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE Y UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 996 MB...29.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN OLAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. LAS OLAS SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. NO SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE NEW ENGLAND. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...36.1 NORTE...74.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...996 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 12.3N 114.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 111.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 18.8N 107.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.6N 102.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 161800 *** WARNING 161800. WARNING VALID 171800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 12.3N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 16.5N 109.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 18.6N 102.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 22.0N 096.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 12.3N 114.4E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 16.5N 109.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 181800UTC 18.6N 102.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 191800UTC 22.0N 096.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PGTW 162100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 114.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 114.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.7N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0N 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.7N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.7N 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.0N 101.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 114.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. // ** WTSS20 VHHH 161945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 161800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (12.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (101.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 161945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 161800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (12.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (101.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTPZ25 KNHC 162035 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 2100Z FRI SEP 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 136.2W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 136.2W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 135.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.2N 137.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.3N 139.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 141.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.2N 142.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 162035 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z FRI SEP 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.4W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 124.4W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.4N 125.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.8N 126.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.6N 128.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 162035 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT STORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW AN EYE AND EYEWALL UNDERNEATH THE CDO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND THE ORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE AMSU IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND THE NOW EVEN SLOWER GFS GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. JOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 36-48 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN COOLING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL AND GFDN FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN FOLLOWS SHIPS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 12.4N 136.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 12.2N 137.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 12.3N 139.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 141.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 13.2N 142.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 162036 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 OPHELIA HAS SOMEWHAT RE-ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CONVECTION MAKING OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB. THE NOAA PLANE MEASURED 73 KT AT 700 MB...AND A 59 KT SURFACE WIND OFF THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM WIND OBSERVED THUS FAR BY THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT AT 59 MB IS 59 KT. THERE IS ALSO A REPORT OF 74 KT AT 2500 FT FROM THE FIRST-EVER SUCCESSFUL AEROSONDE FLIGHT INTO THE CORE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BASED ON ALL THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. OPHELIA HAS TURNED RIGHT AND ACCELERATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/11. THE STORM IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AFTER 72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...PARTICULARLY AFTER 24 HR. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE OPHELIA CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN 12-18 HR. AFTER THAT...COLDER WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 36.8N 73.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 41.6N 68.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 45.2N 63.6W 50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 57.3W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1800Z 51.5N 43.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1800Z 53.5N 27.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 162037 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z FRI SEP 16 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD TO HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 73.2W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 73.2W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 73.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.6N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 45.2N 63.6W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 48.0N 57.3W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 51.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 53.5N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 73.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 162037 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPEHLIA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD TO HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO HALIFAX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 355 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...36.8 N... 73.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 162037 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 5.0 FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ...THIS YIELDS AN AVERAGE DATA-T OF 4.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HOLDS AT 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY EFFECT. DESPITE THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS...THE OVERALL OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH BRIEFLY TO 85 KT IN 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 18N WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TAKE KENNETH ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE CENTER OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.1N 124.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 13.4N 125.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 13.8N 126.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 14.6N 128.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 130.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 132.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 162037 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 41.6N 68.5W 16 5 X X 21 EASTPORT ME 1 14 X X 15 45.2N 63.6W X 10 3 1 14 ST JOHN NB X 14 X X 14 48.0N 57.3W X X 8 2 10 MONCTON NB X 11 2 1 14 OCEAN CITY MD 5 X X X 5 YARMOUTH NS 1 14 1 X 16 ATLANTIC CITY NJ 7 X X X 7 HALIFAX NS X 10 3 X 13 NEW YORK CITY NY 11 X X X 11 SABLE ISLAND NS X 2 7 1 10 MONTAUK POINT NY 25 X X X 25 SYDNEY NS X 3 8 X 11 PROVIDENCE RI 22 X X X 22 EDDY POINT NS X 5 6 1 12 NANTUCKET MA 25 X X X 25 PTX BASQUES NFLD X 1 9 1 11 HYANNIS MA 23 X X X 23 BURGEO NFLD X X 8 2 10 BOSTON MA 18 1 X X 19 ILE ST PIERRE X X 6 4 10 PORTLAND ME 10 4 1 X 15 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 2 7 9 BAR HARBOR ME 4 11 X X 15 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 7 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 162038 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA MAC001-005-007-019-023-RIC001-003-005-007-009-ANZ231-232-233-234- 235-236-237-254-255-350-170300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 WATCH-HILL-RI 41.30N 71.86W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ ATTN...WFO...BOX... ** WTJP31 RJTD 162100 *** WARNING 162100. WARNING VALID 172100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) 990 HPA AT 12.8N 114.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 17.0N 109.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 162100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 12.8N 114.5E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 172100UTC 17.0N 109.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 181800UTC 18.6N 102.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 191800UTC 22.0N 096.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTUS81 KBOX 162143 *** HLSBOX ANZ231>237-254-255-MAZ019>024-RIZ005>008-170400- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 543 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TO PASS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND WASHINGTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PLYMOUTH...BARNSTABLE...DUKES AND NANTUCKET COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR WINDHAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY EAST INCLUDING THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...OPHELIA WILL PASS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY...CLOSE TO THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. ...WIND IMPACTS... A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD TOWARD DAYBREAK. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT NANTUCKET WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE STORM CENTER. TO THE WEST...FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OR AT LEAST WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED AS SHE ACCELERATES PAST NANTUCKET ISLAND. THIS REGION COULD SEE WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CAN BLOW ABOUT LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CAN BRING DOWN SMALL TREES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND IN AND AROUND BUZZARDS BAY. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FOR THE OUTER CAPE...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TIDE ELEVATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOCATION FLOOD HIGH TIDE STORM TIDE (NGVD) (NGVD) (3 FT SURGE NGVD) NANTUCKET HARBOR 4.2 FT 1.7 FT/1205 PM 4.7 FT WOODS HOLE 5.7 FT 1.6 FT/ 800 AM 4.6 FT ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALREADY OCCURRING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM CENTER. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF CAPE COD BAY AND THE COASTLINE FROM BUZZARDS BAY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND SHOULD ALSO PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. BOAT OWNERS ALONG THE COASTLINE SHOULD COMPLETE PREPARATIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS THIS EVENING. MORE DETAILED PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ARE CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ ISSUED BY NWS TAUNTON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 830 PM EDT. $$ DRV ** WTPN31 PHNC 162200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/161535ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 12.4N 135.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 135.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.2N 137.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.3N 139.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.7N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 13.2N 142.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.5N 146.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 17.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 161600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/161530ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 123.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 123.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.3N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.8N 125.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.2N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.6N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.0N 129.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.3N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.5N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 162245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 162100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 162245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 162100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 162358 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPEHLIA CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO HALIFAX. THE PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBURG WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TONIGHT... AND THE WATCH AREA WILL ALSO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THAT AREA FROM TRURO TO SHEET HARBOUR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...37.4 N... 72.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$