** WTCA41 TJSJ 161200 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 41A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT VIERNES 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS EXTERIORES DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LAS PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE. ESTE AVISO SERA DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE HOY. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND HASTA PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUYENDO MARTHA'S VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL SUROESTE DE NOVA SCOTIA DESDE YARMOUTH HASTA LUNENBERG. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.5 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS AL ESTE NORESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 996 MB...29.41 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 3 A 4 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN HOY. NO SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE O EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EDT...35.4 NORTE...74.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...996 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS81 KAKQ 161303 *** HLSAKQ ANZ633-658-NCZ017-102-161700- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 900 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... CURRITUCK. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...IN NORTH CAROLINA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THE WARNING AREA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHERN CURRITUCK COUNTY. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FLOODING DUE TO RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAIN SHIELD WEST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS DECREASED IN AREA...WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN NOW WELL OFFSHORE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEET TODAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY NOON EDT TODAY. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ TG ** WTJP21 RJTD 161200 *** WARNING 161200. WARNING VALID 171200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0516 VICENTE (0516) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 11.4N 114.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 15.4N 112.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 18.2N 107.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 20.2N 102.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 161200UTC 11.4N 114.2E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 171200UTC 15.4N 112.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 181200UTC 18.2N 107.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 191200UTC 20.2N 102.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 161200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0516 VICENTE ANALYSIS POSITION 161200UTC 11.4N 114.2E MOVEMENT WNW 6KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 171200UTC 15.3N 112.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 181200UTC 18.1N 107.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 191200UTC 20.1N 102.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 161500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 113.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 113.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 10.8N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.5N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.9N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.3N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.2N 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 113.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS VICENTE 0516 (0516) INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC 00HR 11.6N 114.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.4N 112.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 18.4N 108.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 20.2N 103.4E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 161345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (0516) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS AND WAS NAMED VICENTE. AT 161200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (11.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (102.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 161345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (0516) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS AND WAS NAMED VICENTE. AT 161200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (11.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (102.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTNT21 KNHC 161428 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z FRI SEP 16 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.8N 70.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.8N 66.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.0N 60.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.0N 47.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 53.0N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 74.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 161431 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 1500Z FRI SEP 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 135.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 90SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 135.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 134.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.7N 136.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 138.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 135.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 161431 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z FRI SEP 16 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.8N 70.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.8N 66.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.0N 60.8W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 53.0N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 74.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 161432 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...35.7 N... 74.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 161433 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 39.8N 70.6W 38 1 X X 39 BAR HARBOR ME X 14 1 X 15 42.8N 66.7W X 16 1 X 17 EASTPORT ME X 12 3 X 15 46.0N 60.8W X 1 7 2 10 ST JOHN NB X 9 5 X 14 CAPE HATTERAS NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X 5 7 X 12 NORFOLK VA 4 X X X 4 YARMOUTH NS X 12 3 1 16 OCEAN CITY MD 19 1 X X 20 HALIFAX NS X 4 8 X 12 ATLANTIC CITY NJ 15 2 X X 17 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 6 3 9 NEW YORK CITY NY 13 4 X X 17 SYDNEY NS X X 6 3 9 MONTAUK POINT NY 20 6 X X 26 EDDY POINT NS X 1 7 2 10 PROVIDENCE RI 12 10 X X 22 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 5 4 9 NANTUCKET MA 16 11 X X 27 BURGEO NFLD X X 3 6 9 HYANNIS MA 11 13 X X 24 ILE ST PIERRE X X 1 7 8 BOSTON MA 5 14 X X 19 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 7 7 PORTLAND ME 1 14 X X 15 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 6 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 161500 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 113.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 113.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 10.8N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.5N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.9N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.3N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.2N 104.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 113.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPEED OF MOVE- MENT.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 161444 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 OPHELIA IS PRESENTING A SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM COASTAL WSR-88DS ARE EAST OF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE POSITIONS...SUGGESTING THE VORTEX IS TILTED. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THIS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7. OPHELIA IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AFTER 72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...WHICH REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS OPHELIA REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. AFTER 24 HR...COLDER WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 36-48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 35.7N 74.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 39.8N 70.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 42.8N 66.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 60.8W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1200Z 50.0N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/1200Z 53.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 161451 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 1500Z FRI SEP 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.8N 125.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.2N 126.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.6N 127.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 161455 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AS WELL AS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN 60NM OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB YIELD T4.5 OR 77 KT. BASED ON AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND DATA-T NUMBERS AT 4.5...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS BETWEEN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE WITH MAXIMUM STRENGTHENING FORECAST AT 76 KT...81 KT...AND 88 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISTURBING THE CURRENT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES KENNETH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.0N 123.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.3N 124.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 13.8N 125.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 14.2N 126.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 14.6N 127.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 15.3N 131.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 161458 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT STORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TOPS TO -80C NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS AN EYE IS PRESENT UNDER THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. JOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 36 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN COOLING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.8N 135.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 12.7N 136.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 12.8N 138.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 13.5N 141.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 161502 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA ANZ237-162100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050916T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 WATCH-HILL-RI 41.30N 71.86W POINT-JUDITH-RI 41.37N 71.50W $$ NCC031-053-055-095-AMZ150-152-154-156-ANZ633-658-162100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ MAC001-005-007-019-023-RIC001-003-005-007-009-ANZ231-232-233-234- 235-236-254-255-162100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050916T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 POINT-JUDITH-RI 41.37N 71.50W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-162100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...BOX... ** WTUS82 KMHX 161503 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-081-095-103-104-161800- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1102 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS. ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...DARE...AND HYDE. ...WARNINGS... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND OVER THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THESE ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. $$ CTC ** WTUS81 KAKQ 161504 *** HLSAKQ ANZ633-658-NCZ017-102-162000- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD. $$ GINGRICH ** WTCA41 TJSJ 161505 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 42 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT VIERNES 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE NORESTE Y DEBILITANDOSE... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND HASTA PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSSETTS...INCLUYENDO MARTHA'S VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMEMTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL SUROESTE DE NOVA SCOTIA DESDE YARMOUTH HASTA LUNENBERG. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 11 AM EDT...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HA DESCONTINUADO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.4 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...725 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE NANTUCKET MASSACHUSSETTS. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 996 MB...29.41 PULGADAS. SE ESPERAN OLAS DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. LAS OLAS SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DEBEN DISMINUIR HOY. NO SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE PARTES DEL SURESTE DE NEW ENGLAND. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...35.7 NORTE...74.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...996 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT...SEGUID POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ VAZQUEZ ** WTPN31 PHNC 161600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/161535ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 12.8N 134.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 134.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 12.7N 136.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.8N 138.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.1N 140.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 13.5N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.5N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.0N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTUS81 KBOX 161523 *** HLSBOX MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005>008-ANZ231>237-254-255-162100- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1123 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND WASHINGTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AT 11 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. THE WARNING REPLACES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN EFFECT. OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH WILL SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET...AND 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. SHE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF CAPE COD BAY AND THE COASTLINE FROM BUZZARDS BAY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND SHOULD ALSO PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM WAREHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AT NANTUCKET HARBOR WILL OCCUR AT 1205 PM. HIGH TIDE AT OAK BLUFFS WILL OCCUR AT 1139 AM. HIGH TIDE AT CHATHAM WILL OCCUR AT 103 PM. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 5 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ WTB ** WTUS81 KBOX 161524 CCA *** HLSBOX MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005>008-ANZ231>237-254-255-162100- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1123 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND WASHINGTON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AT 11 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. THE WARNING REPLACES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN EFFECT. OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH WILL SPREAD INTO THE WARNING AREA AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET...AND 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. SHE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF CAPE COD BAY AND THE COASTLINE FROM BUZZARDS BAY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND SHOULD ALSO PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE AS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM WAREHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AT NANTUCKET HARBOR WILL OCCUR AT 1205 PM. HIGH TIDE AT OAK BLUFFS WILL OCCUR AT 1139 AM. HIGH TIDE AT CHATHAM WILL OCCUR AT 103 PM. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 5 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ WTB ** WTPN32 PHNC 161600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/161530ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 123.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 123.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.3N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.8N 125.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.2N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.6N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.0N 129.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 15.3N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.5N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0516 VICENTE (0516) ANALYSIS PSTN 161500UTC 11.7N 114.1E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 171500UTC 15.9N 111.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 181200UTC 18.2N 107.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 191200UTC 20.2N 102.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 161645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 161500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (11.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST AND ADOPT A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (101.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 161645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 161500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (0516) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (11.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST AND ADOPT A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (101.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 161045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (11.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (103.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 161749 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 415 MILES... 670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. OPHELIA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...36.1 N... 74.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 161748 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.09.2005 HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 134.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.8N 134.6W MODERATE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 137.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.2N 138.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.3N 139.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.9N 139.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 13.9N 141.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.6N 142.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.5N 144.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.9N 145.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 14.8N 147.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.8N 140.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 15.3N 150.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 15.3N 151.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 123.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.9N 123.0W MODERATE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 124.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.6N 126.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.9N 127.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.6N 128.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.7N 129.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.6N 130.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.5N 130.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 14.4N 131.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 14.5N 133.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 15.5N 134.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 16.5N 135.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2005 17.0N 135.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.2N 110.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 110.8W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.4N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.7N 114.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 13.0N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 14.8N 116.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 15.5N 116.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 16.4N 117.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.1N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.8N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 21.8N 120.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 23.7N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 23.5N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 23.5N 120.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 24.3N 178.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2005 24.3N 178.0W WEAK 12UTC 18.09.2005 23.5N 179.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 23.3N 178.5E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 23.8N 176.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 23.9N 174.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 24.4N 173.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 24.0N 171.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 24.7N 168.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 35.3N 74.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2005 35.3N 74.3W MODERATE 00UTC 17.09.2005 36.7N 73.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 38.6N 71.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 41.8N 68.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 45.7N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.2N 49.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 49.8W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.2N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.4N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 15.5N 53.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2005 16.4N 54.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 17.2N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 17.7N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 18.6N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 19.3N 60.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 19.7N 61.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 20.4N 61.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.2N 62.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2005 22.1N 62.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161748