** WTIN20 DEMS 160622 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 16-09-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SAME AREA. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND BAY OF BENGAL. CONVECTIVE CLOUD ARE ALSO SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LEVEL PASSES THROUGH ALONG 25 DEG N OVER INDIAN REGION. ** WTUS81 KAKQ 160654 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 161030- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 245 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...WEAKENED OPHELIA MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... CURRITUCK. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES... CAMDEN...PASQUOTANK...PERQUIMANS...CHOWAN...VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED TO THE NORTH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK HOWEVER...AND A CONTINUED ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...IN NORTH CAROLINA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... FRIDAY MORNING AT 623 AM...6.0 FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THE WARNING AREA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHERN CURRITUCK COUNTY. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FLOODING DUE TO RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAIN SHIELD WEST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS DECREASED IN AREA...WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEET TODAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 6 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ NS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 10.8N 113.5E FAIR MOVE SSW 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 12.1N 110.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 10.8N 113.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACCELERATE. TD WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHWEST . 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 160900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 11.1N 112.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 112.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 10.6N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.4N 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.4N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.5N 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.7N 104.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 112.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 160745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (11.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 160745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (11.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT41 KNHC 160836 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND RECONAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION VISIBLE ON RADAR LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DETERMINED BY AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDES. FIRST SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT...AND DROPSONDES REPORTING SURFACE WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE. OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA...HAS BEEN IMPEDING THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO FORCE OPHELIA ON A PATH CLOSE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANDIAN MARITIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE TILT OF THE VORTEX INDICATES THAT SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE STORM STRUCTURE...AND SHOULD OPHELIA SHEAR OFF IT WOULD PROBABLY NOT ACCELERATE AS RAPIDLY AS FORECAST. ASSUMING THE TRACK IS ROUGHLY CORRECT...OPHELIA WILL BE OVER 20C WATER IN 36 HOURS AND WOULD LIKELY BE EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN MARKEDLY THIS EVENING BUT THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN THE WINDS. ALL THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. AGAIN...SHOULD OPHELIA BECOME SHEARED IT WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 35.1N 74.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 36.1N 74.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 38.0N 72.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 41.0N 69.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 44.0N 64.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/0600Z 48.5N 51.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0600Z 52.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0600Z 54.0N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 160836 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0900Z FRI SEP 16 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 74.8W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 175SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 74.8W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 48.5N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 52.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 54.0N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 160838 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...35.1 N... 74.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 160839 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.0N 72.0W 27 5 X X 32 BAR HARBOR ME X 2 12 X 14 41.0N 69.0W X 16 6 X 22 EASTPORT ME X 1 12 1 14 44.0N 64.0W X X 11 3 14 ST JOHN NB X X 11 2 13 MOREHEAD CITY NC 2 X X X 2 MONCTON NB X X 9 3 12 CAPE HATTERAS NC 99 X X X 99 YARMOUTH NS X 1 14 X 15 NORFOLK VA 18 X X X 18 HALIFAX NS X X 9 4 13 OCEAN CITY MD 18 2 X X 20 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 2 8 10 ATLANTIC CITY NJ 10 6 X X 16 SYDNEY NS X X 2 8 10 NEW YORK CITY NY 4 11 X X 15 EDDY POINT NS X X 4 7 11 MONTAUK POINT NY 1 18 1 X 20 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 1 8 9 PROVIDENCE RI X 17 2 X 19 BURGEO NFLD X X X 9 9 NANTUCKET MA X 18 3 1 22 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 9 9 HYANNIS MA X 17 3 X 20 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 7 7 BOSTON MA X 13 4 X 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5 PORTLAND ME X 6 8 X 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 160845 *** TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0900Z FRI SEP 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 134.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 134.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.8N 136.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.7N 138.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.5N 141.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 147.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 160846 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0900Z FRI SEP 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.6W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.6W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.2N 123.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 122.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 160847 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC031-053-055-095-AMZ150-152-154-156-ANZ633-658-160900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-160900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ MAC001-005-007-019-023-RIC001-003-005-007-009-ANZ231-232-233-234- 235-236-254-255-160900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 POINT-JUDITH-RI 41.37N 71.50W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-160900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...BOX... ** WTPZ45 KNHC 160850 *** TCDEP5 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DESPITE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 AND T4.0 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE AFWA REMAINS STEADY AT T4.0. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING JOVA THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. JOVA REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME FRAME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN JOVA... WHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO 82 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SHIPS AND TAKE THE SYSTEM TO 75 KT IN 24-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A LESS-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 60 KT BY 120 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/11. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THEN DIVERGES IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH NOGAPS MUCH FASTER AND THE GFS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.0N 134.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 12.8N 136.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 12.7N 138.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 141.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 147.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 160901 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 41 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT VIERNES 16 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA COMIENZA A MOVERSE AL NORTE... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO CANADIENSE DE HURACANES HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SUROESTE DE NOVA SCOTIA DESDE YARMOUTH HASTA LUNENBERG. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LAS PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO DESDE POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND HASTA PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUYENDO MARTHA'S VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET. UN AVISO DE DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.8 OESTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 3 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 3 A 4 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN HOY. NO SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE O EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EDT...35.1 NORTE...74.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCTOR CASTRO WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160913 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WELL DEFINED BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.0 FROM AFWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0210Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE DATA...AND IS SET AT 70 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE CYCLONE MAY BE PRODUCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISRUPTING KENNETH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TAKE KENNETH TO 85 KT AT 24-36 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO 60 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS HOURS...THEN COMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.0N 122.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 123.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 13.5N 125.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 127.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 130.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 160915 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-081-095-103-104-161500- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...DARE...AND HYDE. ...WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA'S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 65 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 29 POINT 35 INCHES OR 994 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE IS 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE NORTHERN SHORES. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TODAY...THE SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDE. ON THE OUTER BANKS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THE WIND FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE SHORE...AND AS A RESULT THE OCEANSIDE STORM SURGE IS MINIMAL. AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTH IT COULD KEEP THE WATER ON THE SOUND SIDE AROUND A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS A SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 6 AND 630 AM. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... ALONG THE SOUNDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES 4 TO 5 FT. ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS...SEAS WILL RUN BETWEEN 8 AND 14 FT. WINDS UPWARDS OF 3O TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS...INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 11 AM. $$ 21 ** WTUS81 KAKQ 160926 *** HLSAKQ ANZ633-658-NCZ017-102-161330- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 520 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... CURRITUCK. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS MORNING...IN NORTH CAROLINA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THIS MORNING AT 623 AM...6.0 FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THE WARNING AREA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHERN CURRITUCK COUNTY. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FLOODING DUE TO RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAIN SHIELD WEST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS DECREASED IN AREA...WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN NOW WELL OFFSHORE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEET TODAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 9 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ NS ** WTUS81 KBOX 160933 *** HLSBOX MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005-007-ANZ231>236-254-255-161600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 533 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED SUCH THAT IT MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND BRISTOL. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AT 5 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE COASTAL REGION FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. IF OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS AND PATH CONTINUE ON COURSE AS CURRENTLY PROJECTED...A PORTION OF THIS WATCH...WOULD LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING DURING TODAYS MIDDAY ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF ITS PATH. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LIKELY SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELDS ON THE NEW ENGLAND SIDE OF THIS STORM...THE WATCH CONTINUES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS NOW MOVING NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. SHE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG BUZZARDS BAY AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND THERE IS SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 AM EDT TODAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ DRAG ** WTUS81 KBOX 160937 CCA *** HLSBOX MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005-007-ANZ231>236-254-255-161600- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT .. COR DATE.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 533 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED SUCH THAT IT MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND BRISTOL. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AT 5 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE COASTAL REGION FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. IF OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS AND PATH CONTINUE ON COURSE AS CURRENTLY PROJECTED...A PORTION OF THIS WATCH...WOULD LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING DURING TODAYS MIDDAY ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS TO WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF ITS PATH. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LIKELY SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELDS ON THE NEW ENGLAND SIDE OF THIS STORM...THE WATCH CONTINUES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS NOW MOVING NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. SHE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG BUZZARDS BAY AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND THERE IS SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 AM EDT TODAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ DRAG ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 10.8N 113.2E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 13.6N 111.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 160900 *** WEATHER ADVISOTY NO.4 FOR: ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA ISSUED AT 4:45PM TODAY, SEPTEMBER 2005 THE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NOW OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WAS ESTIMATED AT 100 KMS SOUTHWEST OF ZAMBALES (15.0N 119.0E) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ). THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS AND MAY TRIGGER LANDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODS PARTICULARLY THE PROVINCES OF PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, AND BATAAN. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES. THE NEXT UPDATE ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLIER, IF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160957 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005 CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WELL DEFINED BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.0 FROM AFWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0210Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE DATA...AND IS SET AT 70 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE CYCLONE MAY BE PRODUCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISRUPTING KENNETH ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TAKE KENNETH TO 85 KT AT 24-36 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO 60 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE... AND IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 96 AND 120 HOURS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.0N 122.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 123.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 13.5N 125.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.1W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 127.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 130.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 161000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/160930ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 122.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 122.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.2N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.9N 126.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.4N 127.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.0N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.. REFER TO HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN31 PHNC 161000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/160935ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 018 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 133.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 133.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.8N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.7N 138.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.5N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.5N 145.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.5N 147.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTSS20 VHHH 161045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (11.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (103.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 161045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 160900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (11.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (103.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 161147 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA MOVING AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THIS WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM YARMOUTH TO LUNENBERG. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...35.4 N... 74.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$