** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 160003 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 39A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA SE DEBILITA A TORMENTA TROPICAL MIENTRAS SE MUEVE ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...Y CHESAPEAKE BAY AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE WOODS HOLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CAPE COD Y PLYMOUTH...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MARTHA'S VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.1 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE O NORESTE DURANTE LA PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SON DEBILES SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ESTA NOCHE Y EL VIERNES. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA Y DEL RADAR DOPPLER WSR-88D INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS FUERA DEL CENTRO. EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 6 A 8 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE 2 PULGADAS DE LUVIA SOBRE SECTORES COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...34.6 NORTE...75.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTUS81 KAKQ 160028 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 160500- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 828 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...OR 0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...AND AN EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE HIGHER WINDS REMAIN OVER WATER. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS EVENING...AND FRIDAY MORNING...IN NORTH CAROLINA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH...AND THE NANSEMOND RIVER. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... FRIDAY MORNING AT 809 AM...4.0 TO 5.0 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH... FRIDAY MORNING AT 649 AM...5.5 TO 6.0 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... FRIDAY MORNING AT 623 AM...6.0 FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THE WARNING AREA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHERN CURRITUCK COUNTY. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FLOODING DUE TO RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAIN SHIELD WEST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS DECREASED IN AREA...WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 11 PM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ REILLY ** WTUS82 KMHX 160045 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -160500- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 845 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHTHOUSE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...AND AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN OPHELIA ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE IS 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE NORTHERN SHORES. THE SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TONIGHT. ON THE OUTER BANKS...WIND FLOW IS PARALLEL TO LOWER HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE...AND AS A RESULT THE OCEANSIDE STORM SURGE IS MINIMAL. NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WERE GENERALLY 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WIND AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 MPH. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT. $$ CGG ** WTPN31 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152021Z SEP 05// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152021Z SEP 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 12.2N 112.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 112.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 11.2N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 11.1N 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.1N 109.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.2N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.2N 105.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 112.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 152021Z SEP 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 152030 ). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 160229 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 0300Z FRI SEP 16 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.2N 73.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 55.0W...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 51.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 54.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 160233 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 0300Z FRI SEP 16 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.4W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.4W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.6N 137.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.7N 138.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 133.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 160234 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 0300Z FRI SEP 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 95NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 160240 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...WEAKENED OPHELIA MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED WEST OF WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD NEAR 5 MPH. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK HOWEVER...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. OPHELIA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...34.5 N... 74.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 160241 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.2N 73.0W 29 5 X X 34 BAR HARBOR ME X 1 12 2 15 40.0N 70.4W 1 19 3 1 24 EASTPORT ME X X 11 3 14 43.0N 67.0W X 1 14 2 17 ST JOHN NB X X 8 6 14 MOREHEAD CITY NC 12 2 X X 14 MONCTON NB X X 5 7 12 CAPE HATTERAS NC 99 X X X 99 YARMOUTH NS X X 12 3 15 NORFOLK VA 17 3 X X 20 HALIFAX NS X X 6 7 13 OCEAN CITY MD 16 7 X X 23 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 1 9 10 ATLANTIC CITY NJ 7 13 X 1 21 SYDNEY NS X X 1 9 10 NEW YORK CITY NY 2 15 2 X 19 EDDY POINT NS X X 2 9 11 MONTAUK POINT NY 1 16 4 X 21 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 9 9 PROVIDENCE RI X 13 7 X 20 BURGEO NFLD X X X 9 9 NANTUCKET MA X 13 8 X 21 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 8 8 HYANNIS MA X 12 8 1 21 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 6 6 BOSTON MA X 9 9 X 18 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 3 3 PORTLAND ME X 3 11 2 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 160251 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 THE RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS OF OPHELIA CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 74 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE MOVING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 36 HOURS...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER OPHELIA PASSES 40N LATITUDE...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE RAPIDLY...AND OPHELIA SHOULD START ITS TRANSITION INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS MORE OR LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE DIAGNOSIS OF THE GFS OUTPUT ON THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS WEB PAGE...WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO BE VERY PRECISE AS TO HOW TROPICAL THE CYCLONE WILL BE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSEST TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...BUT MOSTLY EASTWARD...OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/4. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND CAUSE OPHELIA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE OPHELIA WILL COME TO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE NOGAPS TAKES THE CENTER NEAR CAPE COD...THE GFDL JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST...AND THE GFS CONTROL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL...THE NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER WESTWARD IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 34.5N 74.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 73.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 40.0N 70.4W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/0000Z 43.0N 67.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/0000Z 48.0N 55.0W 50 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0000Z 51.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0000Z 54.0N 24.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS82 KMHX 160252 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -160600- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...DARE...HYDE...AND ONSLOW COUNTIES. ...WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. CRAVEN...PAMLICO...AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE NO LONGER IN THE WARNING AREA SINCE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THOSE AREAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD NEAR 5 MPH. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK HOWEVER...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN OPHELIA ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE IS 3 TO 4 FEET ON THE NORTHERN SHORES. THE SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TONIGHT. ON THE OUTER BANKS...WIND FLOW IS PARALLEL TO LOWER HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE...AND AS A RESULT THE OCEANSIDE STORM SURGE IS MINIMAL. NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS OVER THE WATERS OFF NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WERE GENERALLY 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SEAS WERE RUNNING AROUND 15 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WIND AND SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 3AM. $$ CGG ** WTPZ45 KNHC 160259 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC...SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR BEYOND 72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/12. A STRONG MID- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNA...AND CONU. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.9N 133.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 12.6N 137.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 12.7N 138.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 143.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 147.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 160259 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 160730- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...WEAKENED OPHELIA MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ARE DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... CURRITUCK. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES AND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES... CAMDEN...PASQUOTANK...PERQUIMANS...CHOWAN...VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...OR 0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD NEAR 5 MPH. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK HOWEVER...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THE DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY...LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS EVENING...AND FRIDAY MORNING...IN NORTH CAROLINA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... FRIDAY MORNING AT 623 AM...6.0 FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH...IN THE WARNING AREA. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHERN CURRITUCK COUNTY. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... FLOODING DUE TO RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAIN SHIELD WEST OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS DECREASED IN AREA...WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 3 AM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ MALOIT ** WTCA41 TJSJ 160259 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 40 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA DEBILITADA MOVIENDOSE ERRATICAMENTE HACIA FUERA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...TODAS LOS AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA FUERON DESCONTINUADOS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. UN AVISO DE DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDIO HACIA EL OESTE DE WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS HASTA POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND Y HACIA EL ESTE Y EL NORTE HASTA CAPE COD Y PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MARTHA'S VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.8 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A NORESTE COMENZANDO EL VIERNES. LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES Y ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. UN LENTO DEBILITAMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE Y SURESTE DEL CENTRO. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA LA BOYA EN DIAMOND SHOALS...LOCALIZADA COMO A 15 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS...INFORMO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 54 MPH. ELA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MB...29.18 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 6 A 8 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. LAS INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINUIRAN EL VIERNES. OPHELIA PODRIA PRODUCIR CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA MENORES DE 1 PULGADA A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...34.5 NORTE...78.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...988 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160310 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SEMI-CIRCLES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT INCREASES THE WINDS TO 80 KT IN 24 HOURS... WHICH AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. BEYOND DAY 3...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE...AND IS SITUATED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE GFDL/GFDN/UKMET/ ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ABRUPT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH KENNETH AND A POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST SIMULTANEOUSLY TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BREAK IN THE MID- LAYER RIDGE. THE NOGAPS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...HENCE...MAINTAINING KENNETH ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRRORS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS SLOWER THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD CONFORMING TO THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 160316 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC031-053-055-095-VAC810-AMZ150-152-154-156-ANZ632-633-656-658- 160900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ MAC005-RIC001-003-005-007-009-ANZ233-234-235-236-160900- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050916T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 POINT-JUDITH-RI 41.37N 71.50W WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W $$ MAC001-007-019-023-ANZ231-232-254-255-160900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-160900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-160900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...BOX... ** WTUS81 KBOX 160323 *** HLSBOX MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005-007-ANZ231>236-254-255-160900- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1122 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND BRISTOL. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE COASTAL REGION FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET DURING SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY EAST...NEAR 5 MPH. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG BUZZARDS BAY AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND THERE IS SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 5 AM EDT FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ DRAG ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/160335ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 132.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 132.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 12.8N 134.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 12.6N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.7N 138.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.0N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.0N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 16.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 160400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/160330ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 121.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 121.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.2N 122.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.5N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.9N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.2N 125.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.7N 127.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 160445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 160300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (11.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 160445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 160300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (11.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 160543 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.09.2005 TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 133.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2005 13.2N 133.0W MODERATE 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 135.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 12.0N 137.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 12.1N 138.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.7N 139.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.7N 140.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.5N 140.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.8N 142.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 15.2N 143.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 15.3N 145.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 15.2N 147.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 15.2N 149.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 15.4N 150.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE KENNETH ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 121.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2005 12.9N 121.0W MODERATE 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.2N 122.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.7N 124.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.3N 125.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 14.7N 126.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 15.2N 127.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 14.8N 128.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 14.5N 128.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2005 14.0N 129.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2005 13.8N 130.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2005 14.3N 130.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 14.7N 132.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 16.0N 132.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.1N 108.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2005 12.1N 108.6W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2005 13.2N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.2N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 13.2N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 12.2N 113.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 13.8N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.2N 113.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2005 18.0N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 20.2N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 22.0N 118.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 24.3N 119.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2005 26.2N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2005 25.9N 119.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.6N 98.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2005 11.6N 98.2W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.4N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.0N 103.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 15.0N 105.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 75.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2005 34.3N 75.3W STRONG 12UTC 16.09.2005 34.8N 74.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2005 36.2N 73.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2005 38.0N 72.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2005 41.3N 69.3W MODERATE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 12UTC 18.09.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.2N 47.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2005 11.2N 47.9W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2005 12.2N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2005 13.2N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2005 14.6N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2005 15.5N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2005 16.2N 54.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2005 16.8N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2005 16.9N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2005 17.9N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2005 18.8N 58.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2005 19.7N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2005 20.5N 59.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2005 21.2N 60.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160543 ** WTNT31 KNHC 160555 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE OUTER BANKS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POINT JUDITH RHODE ISLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED TO THE NORTH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK HOWEVER...AND A CONTINUED ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. OPHELIA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...34.7 N... 74.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWARD DRIFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$