** WTCA41 TJSJ 151806 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 38A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ... OPHELIA SE ESTACIONA JUSTO LEJOS DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE SURF CITY HASTA EL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA... INCLUYENDO A PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. PARTE DE STE AVISO PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE LA FRONTERA ENTRE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y VIRGINIA HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO LA BAHIA CHESAPEAKE AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.7 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS AL SUR SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... Y COMO A 55 MILLAS AL ESTE NORESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA ESTA CASI ESTACIONARIO. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE TARDE ESTA TARDE O ESTA NOCHE COMIENCE UNA CORRIENTE DE VIENTOS DEL ESTE NORESTE. LOS VIENTOS TIMONELES PERMANECEN DEBILES...ASI QUE ES POSIBLE UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. AUNQUE SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA PERMANEZCA LEJOS DE LA COSTA Y SE MUEVA DE FORMA PARALELA A LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...SE ESPERA QUE PORCIONES DE LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANEZCA EN O CERCA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN FLUCTUACIONES EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS...PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORESTE HASTA EL SURESTE DE SU CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS. DURANTE LA HORA PASADA...SE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 60 MPH EN CAPE HATTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...Y UNA RAFAGA DE 81 MILLAS FUER REPORTADA POR LA BOYA DE NOAA LOCALIZADA EN DIAMOND SHOALS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 986 MB...29.12 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 6 A 8 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE SECTORES DEL EXTREMO ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE...INCLUYENDO LAS COSTAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EDT...34.7 NORTE...75.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...986 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTORA: VAZQUEZ ** WTUS82 KMHX 151841 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -152200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 240 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTH TO SURF CITY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE IS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE NORTHERN SHORES. THE SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OUTER BANKS...WIND FLOW IS PARALLEL TO LOWER HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE AND AS A RESULT THE OCEANSIDE STORM SURGE HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE EYEWALL WERE GENERALLY 70 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT CAPE HATTERAS...AND A GUST TO 81 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED AT DIAMOND SHOALS. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... SEVERE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6 PM. $$ DB ** WTNT21 KNHC 152024 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z THU SEP 15 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.1N 75.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.4N 74.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.7N 67.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.5N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 53.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 152026 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z THU SEP 15 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.1N 75.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.4N 74.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.7N 67.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.5N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 53.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 152026 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.4N 74.1W 31 4 X X 35 PORTLAND ME X X 11 2 13 38.7N 71.6W X 19 6 X 25 BAR HARBOR ME X X 8 5 13 41.7N 67.7W X X 13 3 16 EASTPORT ME X X 6 6 12 WILMINGTON NC 3 1 X X 4 ST JOHN NB X X 4 7 11 MOREHEAD CITY NC 99 X X X 99 MONCTON NB X X 2 8 10 CAPE HATTERAS NC 99 X X X 99 YARMOUTH NS X X 6 7 13 NORFOLK VA 21 4 X X 25 HALIFAX NS X X 2 9 11 OCEAN CITY MD 11 14 X X 25 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 8 8 ATLANTIC CITY NJ 2 17 2 1 22 SYDNEY NS X X X 9 9 NEW YORK CITY NY X 12 7 X 19 EDDY POINT NS X X X 9 9 MONTAUK POINT NY X 8 12 X 20 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 8 8 PROVIDENCE RI X 4 14 X 18 BURGEO NFLD X X X 7 7 NANTUCKET MA X 3 15 1 19 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 6 6 HYANNIS MA X 2 16 X 18 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 4 4 BOSTON MA X 2 14 X 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 152036 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENING AS IT DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. ALSO...WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE OUTER BANKS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED AT DIAMOND SHOALS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 152038 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005 2100Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 120.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 152038 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102005 2100Z THU SEP 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 132.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 131.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 152039 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC031-133-AMZ158-160300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC031-053-055-095-AMZ150-152-154-156-ANZ633-658-160300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050915T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-160300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ MAC001-007-019-023-ANZ231-232-254-255-160300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050915T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ NCC053-055-095-AMZ150-152-154-156-ANZ633-658-160300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-160300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-160300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...BOX... ** WTNT21 KNHC 152046 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 2100Z THU SEP 15 2005 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS IN WARNING AREA AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 35NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 75.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.1N 75.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 35NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.4N 74.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 41.7N 67.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.5N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 53.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 75.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 152047 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 39...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS IN WARNING AREA ...OPHELIA WEAKENING AS IT DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH... INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. ALSO...WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE OUTER BANKS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED AT DIAMOND SHOALS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 152048 *** TCVAT1 OPHELIA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 .HURRICANE OPHELIA NCC031-133-AMZ158-160300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W $$ NCC031-053-055-095-AMZ150-152-154-156-ANZ633-658-160300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050915T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ VAC810-ANZ632-656-160300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W CAPE-CHARLES-LIGHT-VA 37.12N 75.90W $$ MAC001-007-019-023-ANZ231-232-254-255-160300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1016.050915T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 WOODS-HOLE-MA 41.52N 70.68W PLYMOUTH-MA 41.95N 70.65W $$ NCC053-055-095-AMZ150-152-154-156-ANZ633-658-160300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CAPE-LOOKOUT-NC 34.60N 76.53W NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W $$ NCC013-029-049-137-139-177-187-AMZ130-135-160300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1016.050915T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.00W $$ VAC073-093-199-550-650-700-710-735-740-160300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W $$ ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...BOX... ** WTPZ45 KNHC 152049 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 JOVA HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 24 HR...WITH AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY A DIURNAL DECREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. JOVA IS MOVING TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...260/13. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR. AFTER THAT...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FASTER. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU. JOVA IS OVER 28C WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR 48-72 HR. THE GFDN BRING THE STORM TO 121 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR 90 KT IN 48 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THIS...CALLING FOR 80 KT IN 72 HR...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...JOVA SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN. THE NOGAPS AND GFS SUGGEST THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR THAN INDICATED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THAT HAPPENS JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 132.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 152050 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN FOR KENNETH...WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NOT A LOT OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD...POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST DEVELOPS AND GETS CLOSER. THE GFDL AND GFS CALL FOR A LOOP AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE DISTURBANCE. SINCE OTHER MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL NOT FORECAST ANY INTERACTION AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS... GUNA...AND CONU FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN A BIT FASTER AFTER THAT TIME. KENNETH IS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM INTO COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HR...AND KENNETH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UNTIL THEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL 80 KT FORECAST AND THE SHIPS 65 KT FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER. SHOULD KENNETH AND THE DISTURBANCE INTERACT...BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED CONSIDERABLE REVISION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 120.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 152030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/052021ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 113.0E TO 11.8N 109.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 151730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 113.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 115.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY REVEAL AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 162030Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 152030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/052021ZSEP2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 113.0E TO 11.8N 109.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 151730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 113.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N/115.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM/WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND/INFRARED IMAGERY REVEAL AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF A/PARTIALLY- EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL/WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL/FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 162030Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 152101 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 79 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE WIND VALUES ROUGHLY EQUAL 67 AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 987 MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KT...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP OPHELIA AS A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 060/03. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OPHELIA HAS BRIEFLY STALLED...MADE A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OPHELIA...THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFDL...UKMET ...NOGAPS... AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL DID NOT CHANGE AT ALL AND KEEPS OPHELIA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. A CLOSER LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ALSO REMAIN OFFSHORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SHOULD...THEREFORE... REMAIN MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST WILL OPHELIA WEAKEN AND WHEN WILL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCUR. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WARMER GULFSTREAM TO AT LEAST KEEP SOME DEEP CONVECTION GOING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONCE OPHELIA REACHES ABOUT 40N LATITUDE WHERE THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS PHASE CHANGE WILL OCCUR...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 34.8N 75.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 35.1N 75.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 36.4N 74.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 38.7N 71.6W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 17/1800Z 41.7N 67.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 18/1800Z 46.5N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1800Z 49.5N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1800Z 53.0N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTUS81 KAKQ 152101 *** HLSAKQ ANZ632-633-656-658-NCZ015>017-030>032-102-VAZ091-094-095-097-098- 160100- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS... ...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND CURRITUCK COUNTY...AND MOST COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND CURRITUCK SOUND. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE NO LONGER UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...BUT REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... CHOWAN...PERQUIMANS...PASQUOTANK...CAMDEN...AND CURRITUCK. THE FOLLOWING NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES ARE NO LONGER UNDER ANY HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS... BERTIE. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... VIRGINIA BEACH...CHESAPEAKE...NORFOLK...PORTSMOUTH. THE FOLLOWING VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE NO LONGER UNDER ANY HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS... HAMPTON...POQUOSON...YORK...NEWPORT NEWS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...OR 2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. ALSO...WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE OUTER BANKS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED AT DIAMOND SHOALS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THIS EVENING...AND FRIDAY MORNING... IN NORTH CAROLINA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ALBEMARLE SOUND...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE OUTER BANKS...A SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED. IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE IN VIRGINIA BEACH AND ALONG THE NANSEMOND RIVER...WHERE A 1 TO 2 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING NORFOLK...AND PORTSMOUTH... A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET IS EXPECTED. TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...AND FORECASTED WATER LEVELS REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...FOR SOME LOCATIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS... SEWELLS POINT... THIS EVENING AT 748 PM...4.5 TO 5.0 FEET. FRIDAY MORNING AT 809 AM...4.0 TO 5.0 FEET. VIRGINIA BEACH... THIS EVENING AT 624 PM...6.0 FEET. FRIDAY MORNING AT 649 AM...5.5 TO 6.0 FEET. SOUTHERN CURRITUCK... THIS AFTERNOON AT 556 PM...6.0 TO 6.5 FEET. FRIDAY MORNING AT 623 AM...6.0 FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS...AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND POTENTIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... COASTAL SECTIONS AND COUNTIES BORDERING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THESE AMOUNTS OCCUR IN AN HOUR OR LESS. RAINFALL UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. ...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. ...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS... NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE 6 TO 9 FEET THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL FOLLOW BY 8 PM EDT. STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...LOCAL MEDIA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WAKEFIELD. $$ 13 ** WTCA41 TJSJ 152117 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN OPHELIA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 39 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 15 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2005 ...OPHELIA SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE SE DESPLAZA LENTAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE FUERA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... ... ...SE EMITEN NUEVAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE FUE REEMPLAZADO POR UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA SECTORES DEL ESTE DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y EL SURESTE DE VIRGINIA DESDE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUYENDO PAMLICO Y ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...Y CHESAPEAKE BAY AL SUR DE NEW POINT COMFORT. UN AVISO DE DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...SE EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SURESTE DE MASSACHUSETTS DESDE WOODS HOLE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA CAPE COD Y PLYMOUTH...INCLUYENDO LAS ISLAS MARTHA'S VINEYARD Y NANTUCKET. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...CONSULTE LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN OPHELIA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.6 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 60 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CAPE LOOKOUT CAROLINA DEL NORTE. OPHELIA ESTA DESPLAZANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA NOCHE. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OPHELIA SE MUEVA HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LIGERAMENTE MAYOR PARA EL VIERNES. SIN EMBARGO...ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE DEBIDO A QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SON DEBILIES. AUNQUE SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CENTRO DE OPHELIA PERMANEZCA FUERA DE LA COSTA DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... PORCIONES DE LA PARTE NORTE DE LA PARED DEL OJO PERMANECERAN SOBRE O CERCA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 O POSIBLEMENTE 24 HORAS. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. OPHELIA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERAN ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS... PRINCIPALMENTE DESDE EL NORESTE HASTA EL SURESTE DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS. DURANTE LA HORA PASADA...UNA BOYA DE NOAA LOCALIZADA EN DIAMOND SHOALS REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE 85 MPH. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS MAXIMAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...JUNTO CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...PUEDEN ESPERARSE EN AREAS DONDE EL VIENTO SOPLA HACIA LA COSTA. ES POSIBLE UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE HASTA 6 A 8 PIES EN LAS CABECERAS DE BAHIAS Y RIOS. SE ESPERA QUE OPHELIA PRODUZCA CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE 2 PULGADAS DE LUVIA SOBRE SECTORES COSTEROS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...34.8 NORTE...75.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...987 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCTOR FIGUEROA ** WTUS82 KMHX 152120 *** HLSMHX AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104 -160200- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 520 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS: CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE... PAMLICO...ONSLOW. ...WARNINGS... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO POSSIBLY 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IN DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY THE SURGE IS 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE NORTHERN SHORES. THE SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THIS EVENING. ON THE OUTER BANKS...WIND FLOW IS PARALLEL TO LOWER HATTERAS ISLAND AND OCRACOKE AND AS A RESULT THE OCEANSIDE STORM SURGE IS MINIMAL. NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS A SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FROM RODANTHE SOUTH. ...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS... WINDS IN THE EYEWALL WERE GENERALLY 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. ...FLOODING IMPACTS... RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT WITH AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 PM. $$ DB ** WTUS81 KBOX 152131 *** HLSBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-ANZ230>237-250- 254>255-160400- TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 530 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MAY AFFECT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES... BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH. THIS INCLUDES CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS PROJECTED TO PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET DURING SATURDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...AND SERIOUS MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /BOSPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ THOMPSON ** WTUS81 KBOX 152134 CCA *** HLSBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-ANZ230>237-250- 254>255-160400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 533 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MAY AFFECT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES... BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH. THIS INCLUDES CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET DURING SATURDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...AND SERIOUS MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /BOSPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ THOMPSON ** WTUS81 KBOX 152149 CCA *** HLSBOX MAZ019-022>024-ANZ231>234-254-255-160400- HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 545 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MAY AFFECT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...DUKES... BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH. THIS INCLUDES CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET DURING SATURDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. ..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A POWERFUL NOREASTER. BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING. EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND CAPE COD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. ...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS... RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE HAD DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...AND SERIOUS MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT. $$ THOMPSON ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/152135ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 131.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 131.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 12.8N 133.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.6N 135.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.5N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.7N 139.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 13.5N 142.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.5N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR/152130ZSEP2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KENNETH) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 120.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 120.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.1N 121.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.3N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.6N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.9N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOVA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 152345 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005 ...OPHELIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...AND AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE AND WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS. OPHELIA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...34.6 N... 75.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$